6:50 Kempton - Sir Mark Prescott Playing it Cool (13th January)

A 7f Novice Stakes.

This post is more about Sir Mark Prescott than the rest of the field. In truth, it doesn't look the strongest of races. 

A 10-horse Novice on standard to slow going. 

I often think betting on any debutante is either the best or worst idea you ever had. In truth, it is much easier for any horse to win second start compared with first. I know a few of you will say well this trainer or that does exceptionally well. You're correct, they do. However, if you are looking at winning and losing in general terms you have your work cut out.

In fact, I could show many statistics that would most likely put you off betting on debutante for life. 

It wouldn't be a bad thing if I did. 

Sir Mark Prescott is one of many trainers who I would be hard pressed to bet when making their debut.

My data goes back to 2006 and I update every scrap of information for Prescott's two-year-olds covering the Flat turf season. 

You don't need to be Einstein to work out Polar Ice is a three-year-old and he is running outside the parameters of my data. 

Perhaps my findings are worthless here!

My data details that Sir Mark Prescott has a 4% strike rate with his debutantes (2yo) and that is from over 300 horses. 

The biggest winner was priced 33/1. 

However, he has had just three winners over 10/1. 

Polar Ice is an interesting debutante and caught my eye. That doesn't mean I think this gelding, a son of Dansili is a good bet. To be honest, I haven't even thought about the horse's chances, I'm just painting a picture, and will reveal the statistics and let you make up your own opinion. 

This March foal cost 120,000gns at the yearling sales. He is out of a talented race mare [Queen Of Ice] who won on debut (2013) and still in the ownership of Cheveley Park Stud. She was trained by William Haggas, where she remained for her ten-race career, covering three seasons.

She won four races achieving total earnings of £81,966. Two listed-class wins proved a very talented filly who raced at 1m 4f for her last six races. 

Queen Of Ice proved bitterly disappointing on her three starts at four, racing at pattern class, and retired thereafter. 

Polar Ice has a good deal of hope based on his breeding, yearling price tag and calibre of trainer.

Would I be betting on this horse to make a winning debut?

No. 

In general, the odds of Prescott's debutantes detail little value. In fact, the majority have terrible stats. The only exception is when his debutantes start at short-priced favourite. 

I would give this horse some hope if priced 5/1 and less sp. However, over those odds, the chance of winning would be greatly reduced. 

To be fair, I would rather lay this colt to lose than bet to win if outside the above-mentioned betting guide. 

What's interesting is that I would be half interested in betting on this gelding second start, especially if fancied in the betting on debut but disappointing. 

Time will tell. 

7:10 Kempton Racing Tips (8th August)

It's been a while since I wrote a post on HCE. Lots of work put into other websites old and new.

Very pleased and thankful for all the support and our many contributors.

7:10 Kempton - 

An EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes over 7f on standard to slow going. Eight two-year-olds take part. 

Summer Blossom has raced three times for Archie Watson. This Irish-bred daughter of Society Rock races in the familiar silks of Clipper Logistics. She ran well on debut at Chepstow when finishing third place, losing by just half a length. Starting 4/1, connections must have expected a bold show and she was given a pretty hard race suggesting she was fit and ready to roll. Second start, she was far from disgraced in fifth, in what has tuned out to be a fair race. Done little wrong last time out over course and distance, hitting the frame behind Fire Light and Shorter Skirt. A recent Lowther Stakes (Group 2) entries details a juvenile who is held in some regard by the stable. 

Roger Varian has been quiet this season. Certainly, the juveniles he has run have not achieved a great deal. Gleeful is a home bred daughter of Pivotal in the ownership of Cheveley Park Stud. Always worthy of respect. Interesting to see how this January foal fares in the betting. 

Another trainer who hasn't hit the heights with his juveniles this year is Hugo Palmer. Blonde Warrior is about the best of the lots. Interesting to see how Deira Surprise goes here on her third start. She cost 50,000 guineas when purchased at the yearling sales. Racing in the silks of Dr Ali Ridha, this chestnut daughter of Slade Power proved a surprise package when runner-up at odds of 40/1. Her followers were left scratching their head second start when she was beaten into fourth at odds of 4/11f. She was entered to run at Goodwood earlier this month (2nd August) when withdrawn with a vet's certificate.Interesting to note that Deira Surprise beat Summer Blossom on debut. Perhaps that second start was due to an issue.

Ralph Beckett fields a debutante called Sand Share. This British-bred daughter of Oasis Dream is well related in the ownership of K Abdullah. The stable can ready a newcomer and they often go well at Kempton. 

Paul Cole doesn't have the powerful string of old but he always finds a few two-year-old winners each season. Nguni is a British-bred daughter of Mount Nelson. Very few of Cole's debutantes win when priced over 8/1 although it can happen with their better prospects. Unless this home bred is seriously backed, I would take a watching brief. 

Sukalia, Mandy The One & Indian Sea are best watched. 

Conclusion: Not the easiest of races to assess. Summer Blossom is a consistent sort who looks the ideal type to put in an each-way double. Deira Surprise has something to prove after a nasty 4/11f shocker. She beat Summer Blossom on debut and could well do the same here unless that was something of a fluke. The 40/1 price tag may have indicated a surprise. Gleeful and Sand Share will need to be fit and ready to roll to upset a couple of fair juveniles. They both hail from stables who can win with debutantes. The betting should tell the story. Nguni is best watched unless very well backed. The others are unlikely to figure. 
     

5:10 Kempton Racing Tips (14th Dec) 32RED/BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF MAIDEN STAKES (Div II) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Stakes over  7f on Standard to Slow going.

Twelve runners. Ten colts and two fillies. Eight lightly raced two-year-olds with four debutantes. 

Daschas made his debut at Kempton, trained by Amanda Perrett for K Abdullah. This homebred son of Oasis Dream wasn't best fancied on debut over course and distance. He was priced 16-1 when finishing third behind easy victor Leshlaa. In many respects, that wasn't the strongest of maidens behind the winner. Although the second and fourth have either won or placed since. This stable's juveniles often improve for the run and he holds each-way claims if prices allow.  

The Horse Racing Tips at Tipster Review highlight that he is certainly one to watch. 

Screaming Gemini has run two times priced 14-1 on both starts. This son of Shamardal cost 95,000G at the yearling sales. This bay colt stepped up in distance second start but couldn't reach the leaders giving the impression this drop in trip may test his mettle. However, this juvenile is fancied in the betting which suggests the opposition is nothing out of the ordinary.

Ed Walker is a class trainer and Know Your Limit was backed on his second start but given a stiff challenge when held up in the rear. This chestnut son of Tamayuz was similarly slow on debut. A wide draw isn't ideal.    

I've been disappointed by the performance of many Richard Hughes juveniles this season. Footman is a son of Cacique and owned by Highclere Thoroughbred Racing. This March foal was relatively fancied on debut at Kempton over one mile but never involved probably not helped by an awkward start and then not much room when on heels entering the straight. If backed may be of interest.   

Caracas has a wide draw. This son of Cacique is trained by Roger Charlton. He was withdrawn from the sales as a yearling but comes from a decent family. Charlton can win with his debutantes, often at bigger prices than most would expect. If priced 13/2 & less SP it would add to the confidence. 

Jamie Osborne had a lovely two-year-old winner in Royal Opera House and Brother In Arms is well owned by Michael Buckley. This son of Kodiac was a breeze-up purchase for £80,000. I often find Osborne's debutantes are better for the run and I would take a watching brief.   

Raspberry Princess, Millie May, Greyjoy, Sunovarebel, Mr Mac & Mister Freeze are best watched.  

Conclusion: A tricky race to assess. Daschas should progress with racing and if priced 13/2 & less SP has sound each-way claims. Caracas is interesting. If backed it would bring greater confidence. 

Godolphin's Dubai One Makes Debut at Kempton for Saeed bin Suroor

6:30 Kempton - 

For many race fans the excitement of enjoying two-year-old racing is the appearance of a very talented horse. A horse that wins impressively on debut but competes at pattern class and heralded as a future Classic winner. 

We may  have one such two-year-old making its debut today.

Dubai One is trained by Saeed bin Suroor for the mighty Godolphin. This chestnut daughter of Exceed And Excel, out of a relatively poor-winning mare, who was trained by Michael Bell. The reputation of Dubai One proceeds her because she is even money favourite to take this evening's maiden at Sunbury.  

She is bred to start over this 6f and races from stall 6, ridden by James Doyle. 

Of the form horses Hathfa, showed ability on debut when seriously backed but, perhaps, slightly disappointed next start at Newbury, although that was a decent contest. This is definitely one of the better juveniles in Richard Hughes string.

Etikaal is another live threat for Simon Crisford in the silks of Hamdan Al Maktoum. This son of Sepoy has a wide draw which isn't ideal on this turning course. However, Crisford has been an example to just about all this season when it comes to preparing a debutant to shine on its formative start. 

Conclusion: Dubai One will be the focus of many racegoers and pundits alike. This filly takes on a field of colts [two other fillies, too] but she is expected to win. Saeed bin Suroor has a fantastic strike rate at this course. Debutants can be a tricky betting medium, especially on a turning course over a sprint distance, but this filly should go well. If she is a class act I very much doubt Hathfa will be good enough, although his race experience is positive and he is proven to have ability. Etikaal is a worthy opponent and could be a tough horse to beat if not suffering too badly from his wide draw. A fascinating race.  

6:40 Kempton Racing Tips (3rd Aug) BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Fillies Stakes race over 7f on a standard to slow going. 

Seven two-year-olds take part. Snow Squaw has been fancied on both starts to date and far from disgraced when making her debut at Newmarket and then stepping up to seven furlongs when third in a competitive race at Ascot. This Irish-bred daughter of Excelebration is out of a three-time winning mare at Listed class and placed in Group 2. David Elsworth does well with his juveniles and I imagine connections were satisfied with her performance the last start although hoping for a win. This homebred must take the beating today.

Robert Eddery is a talented trainer who deserves more horses sent his way. Fire Palace is a daughter of Royal Applause and a bargain by when purchased by her present owner Edwin Phillips for just 1,800G. Interesting that connections sent this bay filly to Goodwood on debut and she showed promise to finish seventh at odds of 66/1. Eddery does very well with his juveniles when prominent in the betting on their second start and there has been money for this horse. I'd expected a bold show.

Every Nice Girl is trained by Marco Botti who has been a little quiet with his two-year-olds this season. This American-bred daughter of Mizzen Mast is a breeze-up purchase [bought at two, April] for 58,000G. Botti has fair win and place claims with his debutantes priced 10/1 & less. 

David Simcock has been in cracking form with his two-year-olds this season and Vista Steppe made her debut at Doncaster, although not particularly fancied. The betting is key here. If priced 13/2 & less SP has claims but if weak in the market best watched.

The others are best watched. 

Conclusion: This looks a fine chance for Snow Squaw to win. A couple of runs should have her primed and the main opponent looks to be Fire Palace. I expect Eddery's second starter to improve but needs to. It is a shame there aren't three places for each-way backers but, in fairness, his fancied juveniles either win or finish unplaced. Every Nice Girl & Vista Steppe may have claims if in their respective betting guides although I would be looking towards the top two in the betting. Snow Squaw gets the nod.

7:10 Kempton Racing Tips (29th June) BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF NOVICE FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

An EBF Novice Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10) over 7f on standard going. James Tate has been quiet this season with his two-year-old runners. One juvenile that caught the eye is Urban Fox., This bay filly is a daughter of Australian stallion Foxwedge out of a winning mare who was trained by Amanda Perrett. This January foal runs in the familiar silks of Saeed Manana and exceptional yearling purchase at just 10,000G. She is held in high regard at home by connetions and backed on debut and powered home to win in tidy fashion. The form of that race has been franked with Rosebelle winning next start at Chester and Michael Bell's Preobrajenska who was pipped at the post at the course. This step up to 7f should suit Urban Fox. Clearly connections have been keen to make the right decision on this second start because she bypassed a Listed raced and Nursery on Friday. She carries a 7lb penalty which makes life more difficult but I can imagine Tate sees this as a test with a view to pattern class which I would consider is on the cards next start. With two other winners in the line-up this is a fair challenge. 

Fancy Day looks the main danger for Mark Johnston after a ready win at Pontefract. 

David Simcock has been in flying form with his two-year-olds and while respecting Miss Sugars this looks a much hotter race and she will need to make a marked step forward. This daughter of Harbour Watch is another juvenile who will enjoy this extra furlong. However, although limiting a winner is often a foolish exercise, I would take a watching brief with this winning favourite owned by The Tick Tock partnership. 

John Gosden is represented by two juveniles making their debut. It will take a smart horse to win against these talented opponents at the first time of asking. Both are owned and bred by Newsells Park Stud. Elas Ruby looks to be second string and best watched although she did go through the sale's ring for 160,000G. 

Double Spin is fancied in the betting and the stable have a respectable strike rate with their debutantes priced 13/2 & less SP. This American-bred daughter of Hard Spun is an early [January] foal and not sold for 50,000E. The mare won on debut, achieving a Listed success in her native France before competing in the U.S for her final three starts.      

Pacofilha is trained by Paul Cole and once-raced when placed fourth on debut at Wolverhampton over two months back. best watched unless substantially backed. 

Conclusion: A tough little stakes race and a good test for those with ambitions of racing at pattern class. Urban Fox showed a touch of class winning at Yarmouth on debut, the form has been franked and this step up to 7f will suit. Disappointing that we are dealing with just two places for each-way backers but I think this filly will go well. 

5:10 Kempton Racing Tips (2nd Dec) 32RED.COM/IRISH STALLION FARMS EBF MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (Div I) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

Day 11 of The 30 Day Challenge. Been a while since our last update but few chances of late.  

An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 6f on Standard going. Nine two-year-olds take part: all raced by one debutante. Jeremy Noseda is a class trainer. Rouge Noir was fancied to go well first start but disappointed somewhat, a few lengths away in fourth. This daughter of Showcasing cost 68,000gns at the yearling sales. The betting is important and if priced 13/2 & less has sound each-way claims. Better will be needed today and there's hope this drop in distance and a couple of weeks on the sidelines will find improvement. If particularly weak in the betting, I'd take a watching brief. 


5:40 Kempton - Division II. Quite interested in Henry Candy's Artist's Model. This daughter of Dutch Art defied her odds when a gallant third at 16/1. This breeze-up purchase cost £38,000 by the trainer in the ownership of Girsonfield Ltd. The betting suggests this is very much a three-horse race and if this April foal is an each-way price has sound claims. 

Rouge Noir (each-way bet if priced 13/2 & less) 4/1 8th (ran too bad to be true)
Artist's Model (each way bet if prices allow) 7/2 3rd

   

12:00 Lingfield Racing Tips (25th Nov) 32RED/IRISH STALLION FARMS EBF MAIDEN STAKES (Div I) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

Day 10 of The 30 Day Challenge.

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 1m 1y on Standard going. Nine colts take part, just over half with race experience. Always Welcome catches the eye. This American-bred son of Elusive Quality out of a Group 1 winning mare. George Strawbridge's chestnut colt ran well on debut if not a touch keen and short of room. The winner may have been a big price but looked a fair juvenile. John Gosden has been in outstanding form all season and this April foal will be primed to go well. The horse to beat but - in truth - very little meat on the bone. 

12:30 Lingfield - Division II

Quite an interesting race. Similar to the earlier division with nine two-year-olds, four lightly raced. A couple of fancied debutantes head the betting so it may give hope of value for one horse. Firstly, Godolphin field Brave Hero. This son of Poet's Cove out of a winning mare, who was twice Listed placed. He was purchased by John Fergusson Bloodstock for 75,000gns at the yearling sales. A plum draw and priced about even money [Tuesday evening] suggest a big run is expected. Once again, we have our eye on John Gosden's second time out, Palmerston. This bay colt, a son of Oasis Dream, was relatively fancied on debut but didn't show a great deal in fourth place eclipsed by Sir Michael Stoute's seven-length winner Estidraak. Lady Rothchild's home-bred is likely to improve for this step up to one mile. The betting is important and if priced 13/2 & less has sound each way claims. If particularly weak in the betting best to take a watching brief. 

4:15 Kempton -  A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f on Standard going. Just seven two-year-olds all with race experience bar one horse for Gay Kelleway. Fillies taking on the sole gelding. Fruit Salad was fancied by us last start and James Bethell's filly was a shade unlucky after finishing with gusto. These restricted race types don't make the strongest heats and this chestnut must have claims although I wonder if Fruit Salad might be slightly outpaced in the early stages and bigger odds in running but finish well.  

Bit Of A Lad is worth noting for David Brown. This gelding, a son of Lilbourne Lad, was quite well backed on debut at Southwell and trailing in 9th place doesn't really do him any justice. It didn't look the strongest of maiden but on grade this is a drop in class. This 16,000gns yearling purchase may well be a touch lazy or tricky as he wore blinkers on debut. However, he travelled well and only tired in the closing stages after being competitive. Also, running the far rail at Southwell may have been a disadvantage. Bit Of A Lad has a hood on today. A good draw may tempt connections to lead. Not the easiest of horses to assess but a gelding against the fairer sex is not a bad angle. The betting is key. If priced 13/2 & less I'd give this juvenile fair win and place claims. If very weak in the market I'd take a watching brief. 

5:45 Kempton -  An EBF Maiden Stakes over 6f. Twelve two-year-olds take part: nine colts and three fillies. I'll keep this short and sweet. John Gosden could have a good day on the juvenile front and The Commendatore has strong claims. This son of Starbangledbanner cost 105,000gns at the yearling sales in the ownership of Michael Tabor and Rachel Hood. Inexperience cost this horse on debut and better should be seen on this second start. A good-looking type but probably priced to chance at even money. 

12:30 Lingfield - Palmerston 9/2 3rd
4:15 Kempton  - Bit Of A Lad No bet

5:25 Kempton Racing Tips (18th Nov) 32RED CASINO/EBF STALLIONS MAIDEN STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (Div I) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

Day 8 of The 30 Day Challenge.

5:25 Kempton:

A Maiden Stakes over 7f on standard going. Ten two-year-olds take part: nine colts and one filly. Two horses have race experience. Manson is one of few juveniles for Domonic Ffrench Davis but a talent with an official rating of 85, which sets a decent standard for others to achieve. This son of Equiano has raced three times and relatively fancied on all starts. He raced in the Convivial at York and held an engagement for Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1). It is a slight concern this chestnut colt has been off course for 75 days. With a less fashionable stable, there is a chance he may drift in the betting.  Should take the beating but I would take a watching brief unless around 11/4. 

A mix of debutantes from trainers large and small. The betting will tell the story for most. 

Little Salamanca and Lord Huntingdon has fair win and place claims if priced 7/1 & less sp. 

Luca Cumani doesn't feature the best strike rate on debut although War Story has place claims if priced in single figures.  

The only filly in the field, Rouge Noir, is a 68,000gns yearling purchase and hails from Jeremy Noseda's yard. The stable have fair win and place claims with debutantes priced 13/2 & less sp. 

5:55 Kempton:  

John Gosden's debutante Amanaat looks to be the talking horse here and odds on to take this maiden. Hamdan Al Maktoun's colt cost 280,000gns at the yearling sales. It is worth noting that this son of Exceed And Excel was entered for the Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1), which gives confidence. 

Enreaching is interesting. James Fanshawe's bay gelding cost 130,000gns at the yearling sales and races in the familiar silks of Ben CM Wong. This son of Dutch Art ran with promise on debut, behind a couple of decent types, and is likely to progress from that initial start. Juveniles from Pegasus Stables often improve quite markedly on their second and that factor brings hope. If priced 13/2 & less sp there could well be value for an each-way bet especially if priced around 5/1+. If the favourite is heavily backed there could be a chance this horse is pushed beyond that price guide. This always brings a dilemma with regarding betting or not. Personally, I would bet if priced 13/2 & less and take a watching brief if weak in the market. 

Soofiah should be respected if fancied in the betting while Broadway Icon is another with a fighting chance if backed to single figures. 

6:25 Kempton:

A decent sized field and in some respects a tricky race to asses. It is a restricted race which favours horses with proven experience over debutantes.The major hope is Predilection trained by John Gosden for Khalid Abdullah. This son of First Defence ran well on debut behind runaway winner King Of Rooks. This bay colt hasn't been seen since May, which brings some concerns. He steps up to 1m. At the prices [2/1], there isn't much value but I have sound facts to consider this two-year-old has decent  win and place claims. I'd be surprised if he isn't placed at worst and if drifting in the betting to each way would be a bet.   

Gregarious was a talking horse on debut. Lucy Wadham doesn't have many two-year-old talents and this attractive grey colt had been racing against other trained juveniles to gain a measure of ability. This Irish-bred son of Big Bad Bob was backed from big prices and ran a sterling race losing by half a length at odds of 8/1. Today the price will be much shorter, but a bold show should be expected.

Hughie Morrison has done well with his two-year-olds this season, a few going well on debut which defies the norm. Van Dyke was relatively fancied over course and distance when finishing second. Another horse which has sound win and place claims if priced 13/2 & less sp. 

Every Chance is worth watching in the betting, as fancied in the betting on debut, owned and trained by Jamie Osborne. If seriously backed would figure in the reckoning. 

Wednesday's Tips:

5:55 Kempton - Enreaching each-way (must be 13/2 & less sp) 2nd
6:25 Kempton - Predilection 11/4 adv 1st

6:10 Kempton Racing Tips (11th Nov) 32RED.COM MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STAKES (Div II) (CLASS 6) (2yo)

Day 3 of the 30-Day Challenge. The results have shown promise. 

A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 1m. Quite a restricted race type which gives prominence to form horses. 

A large field of thirteen runners: ten colts/geldings and three fillies. Eight of the field have experience and one horse catches the eye. Andrew Balding's horses have been in decent form and Charmy looks a live chance here although there is one stumbling block which I'm sure you eagle-eyed readers have noted. This bay filly is a daughter of Yeats out of an unraced mare. 

This homebred is related to Room Key, who wasn't without some ability for Eve Johnson-Houghton. 

Charmy made her debut at Newmarket over 7f in July, a race where the form has been franked on a number of occasions. This March foal was slow from the stall but threatened to win until tiring in the last furlong to finish fifth. 

By all accounts, this is a drop in class.  

It is worth noting that Balding gave this filly an entry for the Rockfel Stakes (Group 2), which suggests she is one of the stable's better two-year-olds. 

The downside is a wide draw in stall thirteen (hopefully not unlucky for some). It will be interesting to see which tactics are employed, but it would be no surprise to see Murphy [jockey] make a bold bid from the front. 

Over one mile, there should be plenty of time to find a position and run a big race. The early prices detail a 5/2 chance which, again, doesn't leave much meat on the bone. I would be hoping the draw helps Charmy drift to an each-way price (probably got my rose-tinted glasses on here). 

If betting on the exchanges, you may be able to achieve much bigger prices, especially if held up off the pace. 

Basically, Charmy should run a big race even with these concerns. 

4:10 Kempton Racing Tips (9th Nov) BREEDERS SUPPORTING RACING EBF MAIDEN STAKES (Stallion-Restricted) (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 7f. Twelve two-year-olds: colts/geldings and the solitary filly, nine juveniles with race experience. The betting is of interest for one candidate here in pinpointing a fair each-way bet. Marylebone is a son of Shamardal out of a Listed winning mare going through the yearling sales at 80,000GNS. It is interesting why this youngster was sent to the sales as he is a home bred and still in the ownership of Chasemore Farm. This bay colt was relatively fancied on debut when finishing sixth-of-ten runners over 7f on good to soft ground at Leicester. This March foal was well backed that day from 10/1 returning 11/2 SP. Ed Walker is a talented trainer and that was a fair introduction leaving the impression there will be more to come on this second start. As mentioned, keep an eye on the betting, and if starting 13/2 & less would tempt me to have a few shekels on each way.  If weak in the market, I'd take a watching brief.  

Part of the 30-day challenge - where I write a post every day for one month. Should be interesting if there isn't a two-year-old horse race or nothing I fancy. Perhaps that's the challenge part.  

3:40 Kempton Racing Tips (21st Sept) CASH OUT ON THE BETDAQ APP/EBF STALLIONS MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (Div II) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Fillies Stakes over 7f on standard to slow going. Fourteen two-year-olds take part. 

Gravity Flow was fancied on debut at Windsor when flashing home with spirit behind the well regarded Sunflower. trained by Andrew Balding. William Haggas' daughter of Exceed And Excel cost 165,000euros at the yearling sales and sure to appreciate this step up to 7f. She was one of five juveniles for this stable entered for the Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1), but three have been forfeited at the last stage, including Gravity Flow. That may have as much to do with this chestnut filly being better over a stiffer trip. A recent Stakes entry suggest connection expect a maiden win sooner rather than later. The statistics detail this beaten favourite will go well with decent win and place claims. The horse to beat. 

Peppering is potentially well drawn and likely to be fancied in the betting for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. This American bred filly doesn't hold any flashy Group entries. A stable who can go well but difficult to assess their debutantes. A horse I would rather watch.

Polymnia didn't show a great deal when making her debut at Salisbury on soft going. This filly cost 115,000gns at the yearling sales and could well be capable of better. Richard Hannon's charge was relatively fancied that day and been given at least three Stakes entries which suggests connections are expecting more. With a tissue price of 20/1 there may be money for this juvenile. Looks poor on form but no forlorn hope. 

Ralph Beckett does well at this course and Secret Sense is worth noting in the betting. This daughter of Shamardal is out of a winning mare, placed at Listed class. This family have featured a number of exceptionally expensive siblings/relatives including one sired by Galileo which sold for 3,600,000gns. Secret Sense held a Fillies Mile Group 1 entry but this wasn't updated at the forfeit stage. Still a juvenile to be respected with a 26% strike rate for two-year-olds at this course and positive points profit.     

Sir Michael Stoute fields Queen's Trust, who is owned by Cheveley Park Stud. The betting is key. If priced 13/2 & less should be considered with a live chance but if weak in the market best watched. Interesting she has been given a stakes entry, which is something of a rarity for the stable.   

Interesting to see how Thrilled performs for David Lanigan. I must admit I'm never confident about this stable as they seem so difficult to assess if not just point-blank poor. This daughter of Kodiac cost 460,000gns at the sales and held a number of Group entries although those races have either been concluded or forfeited. This bay filly was relatively fancied on debut over 6f. She was never competitive and connections will be hoping to see improvement over this extra furlong. Any horse can disappoint on debut or be in need of the run so it would be foolish to presume she is limited. So often people jump to conclusions and so often they are wrong.If drifting to fantastic odds on the exchanges may be worth a speculative bet. I'd have to take a watching brief. 

Dramatic Voice is a home bred although sent to the sales but withdrawn. Paul Cole does well at Kempton. the betting is key. If priced in double figures best watched. If fancied has sound each way claims. 

Late Show is well bred out of a Group 2 winner and Group 1 performer. Sir Mark Prescott has few two-year-olds fancied on debut and most progress with racing. However, if priced 13/2 & less SP would be interesting. A wide draw doesn't help. 

Conclusion: Probably a stiffer race than many will view at first sight. Gravity Flow sets the standard and will enjoy this 7f contest. Not great value but will take the beating. Polymnia is worth noting in the betting and may be worth a speculative punt if touching big odds. Could well be backed and better than seen on debut.Could show marked improvement. Secret Sense is very well bred and hails from a stable who go well here. A horse with each way claims. Queen's Trust. Dramatic Voice & Late Show need to be 8/1 & less to be considered at serious hopes. Best watched if weak in the betting. Thrilled cost a fortune at the sales but showed little on debut. That experience and a step up in distance should see her in a better light today. Perhaps, worth a speculative bet if drifting to ridiculous prices on the exchanges. Another horse who could be backed. Difficult to know what to expect but clearly connection hold some hope.        

6:40 Kempton Racing Tips (19th Aug) 32RED CASINO MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 7f on standard to slow going. Fourteen runners and a few to note. Not enough time to go too in depth but pointers to help narrow the field. 

Sterling Lines didn't show any ability on debut at Goodwood but a couple of Group entries suggest much better is expected for Mrs Fitri Hay's colt, trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam. The betting is key. If fancied it will speak volumes. If priced 13/2 & less I'd expect a big run although a wide draw isn't ideal. If outside this betting guide, I'd take a watching brief. The entries are interesting. 

You N Me hails from a trainer I have great respect in Karl Burke. This daughter of Footstepsinthesand was given a Lowther Stakes (Group 2) entry [Thursday at York]. Clearly, this bay filly isn't up to that class. She was relatively fancied on debut over 6f at Carlisle but faded after showing pace. This race type is similar to her debut and the extra furlong will help. More is needed today. The betting is very important. If priced 13/2 & less I'd expect a bold show and decent win and place claims. If weak, best left alone. 

Harry Spiller may be in his formative season but he's a trainer who could well go places in time. I noted Star Glimmer before debut at Kempton when backed from 100/1 - 50/1. This daughter of Kodiac wasn't disgraced in fifth behind a few talents. That was an EBF Maiden Stakes indicating this is a step down in class. Spiller gave this juvenile a stakes race entry before debut, which I took as a sign of confidence. I can see this filly going well. 

Miss Blondell was a huge price on debut in a hot maiden at Goodwood, where she ran on with verve. Tregoning has sent a few juveniles to race at that grade 1 course over the years and they have often been his better types. There is always a slight concern horses running from off the pace may be flattered. The betting guide suggests this daughter of Compton Place has each way claims.

Conclusion: The betting will be the best guide for most. Sterling Lines & You N Me would need to be priced 13/2 & less to figure. However, both have been given significant entries which gives encouragement. The former could show marked improvement and if strongly fancied I would expect a big run. You N Me was a touch disappointing on debut but may have needed the race and will appreciate this step up in distance. If in the best betting guide, would have decent each way claims. If both are weak in the betting - best watched. Harry Spiller will be hopeful Star Glimmer goes well. She ran in a fair race on debut and this is an easier target. A wide draw isn't ideal but over this distance there is time to find a position. Has each way claims and worth a bet if available at big odds [10/1+]. Miss Blondell has claims but best watched.    

1:40 Kempton Racing Tips (4th April) BETFRED TV/BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF MAIDEN STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f on standard going. Just fives runners: two beaten favourites taking on the debutantes, including three colts and two fillies. Last year this race was won by Escalating, trained by Pat Eddery, who was a beaten favourite in the Brocklesby Stakes. 

Richard Hannon's Anwar is on a recovery mission after a promising debut although firmly put in her place by a bigger, stronger [Rah Rah] horse trained by Mark Johnston. This grey daughter of Dark Angel cost 78,000GNS at the yearling sales when purchased by Peter & Ross Doyle Ltd. 

Hannon said:  ''Previous experience can mean a lot on the all-weather, so we hope that Anwar, who made a promising debut last week, might be able to go one better in the opener. He bumped into a good one there and maybe Mark Johnston has another up his sleeve in Tawakkol, but our filly has taken her race well and is ready to roll again.'' 

This small, athletic filly has valuable experience over course and distance and Richard Hughes is likely to make that count. She was beaten at short odds by a potentially decent juvenile. This straightforward filly could well make amends but as with all these early two-year-old races it is a brave man who takes a short price when form is still untested and opposition may prove worthy opposition. 

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Just That Lord was noted on debut when contesting the Brocklesby Stakes for Bill Turner, a race he usually sends his best two-year-old. This home bred filly by Avonbridge out of a talented filly who was similarly owned and trained. This chestnut colt is a fair-looking type sent off favourite that day. He showed a professional attitude and all looked well until fading in the closing stages to finish fourth. In some respects that was a disappointing run as I'm sure connections expected better. The mid-furlong pace was quite fast, while the final was pretty slow. It could be the case Just That Lord went a stride too fast although that might be clutching at straws. He certainly tired in the closing stages and looked disappointing. This juvenile will travel well but how will he finish the race? In spite of a somewhat average performance, Turner does have a record of sending his better horses to the Brocklesby and for that reason this April foal may be capable of better. There is a query why Luke Morris replaces Ryan While who partnered this colt on debut. 

The stable is also represented by debutante Frank Bridge. This home bred, a son of Avon Bridge out of a winning, poor mare, is partnered by the trainer's grandson. As detailed, he rode Just That Lord on debut and this change of tactics is unusual. While pundits suggest this stable have their two-year-olds primed for debut their strike rate is far from impressive. The betting is the best guide and if shorter odds than Just That Lord it would be significant. However, I would favour the former.

Mark Johnston has made the headlines with a fantastic start to the new Flat turf season [3 of his 4 juveniles victors]. Tawakkol, a son of Firebreak out of a multiple-winning mare, has been entered to run in a few races including the Scottish Brocklesby. It gives the impression the trainer has been looking for the right race. This bay colt was an early foal and went through the yearling sales sold to Shadwell Estate for 70,000GNS. Kingsley House Stables feature a respectable win and place rate with their fancied debutantes although it can be difficult to pick the wheat from the chaff. One for the shortlist. 

Rosealee is the first two-year-old runner for Jeremy Gask. This grey filly, a daughter Zebedee out of a twice-winning mare, comes from a decent family [half sister to Here Now And Why]. This filly was purchased by the trainer from Doncaster Premiere Yearlings Sale for £32,000. The Sutton Veny Syndicate [owners] done well with Sutton Veny and they will be hopeful with this prospect. Gask is an ambitious trainer although the yard have a small string of juveniles. In general, they have a poor strike rate on debut although Dark Secret won at odds of 40/1 in 2010. It is interesting this horse makes its debut so early, which does catch the eye. In 2013 Flying Bear ran well when making his debut over course and distance. On balance I'd have to take a watching brief although this horse may be worth a speculative punt at huge odds. 

Conclusion: Two form horses will help build the jigsaw of these early-season dilemmas. Anwar looked to run a fair debut behind a Mark Johnston talent and eased down in the closing stages. Course and distance experience means a lot on this turning track where a slow start or running wide can ruin any chance. She will test the opposition and sets the standard. At the prices I'd have to take a watching brief. I'm intrigued to see how Just That Lord goes here after a slightly disappointing effort in the Brocklesby. Turner has sent some of his best juveniles to race at Doncaster and this colt could well be better than seen. He should travel well and this turning course may help run to the line. I'd taking a watching brief on Frank Bridge although the jockey booking is something of a mystery. Tawakkol hails from a stable that has done little wrong this season with three winners from four horses. This colt has received a stakes entry which is a sign of encouragement and been entered for other contests before taking this engagement. Personally, I find Johnston's debutantes difficult to assess. They are either easy winners or poor losers. Rosealee hails from a stable that have few debut winners although it may be a positive racing so early in the season. A watching brief.    

Gask said: "She has just been so honest since we bought her. She has just wanted to please us right from the moment we started doing work with her. We don't make it a priority to get the two-year-olds going early, but if they are willing to go we won't stop them.

"She came here and galloped last week in a good time. I thought if she can finish like that she would be there or thereabouts."

5:00 Kempton Racing Tips (21st January) 32RED.COM MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo+)

A Maiden Fillies Stakes over 7f on standard going. A large field of fourteen, most lightly raced with four debutantes. High Class Equine advised of P J McBride's three-year-olds the other day and we have another second-starter who could well figure. Anarchiste is a daughter of Archipenko out of a winning mare who was trained by Geoff Wragg. Anarchiste, like her mother, is owned and bred by Miss K Rausing. This chestnut filly ran over course and distance a couple of weeks ago when showing promise, finishing fourth, in what may turn out to be a fair race. Certainly, Sir Mark Prescott's winner Molly Dolly is likely to prove a talent. Phillip McBride's juveniles rarely win on debut and primed to go well second start. A wide draw (13) isn't ideal, but over this distance and with that formative experience it is hoped she will sit handy and finish in style. Must have decent each way claims. 

Each-way double:

4:30 Kempton - Littlecote Lady (7/1) 3rd
5:00 Kempton - Anarchiste (8/1) 4th

2:10 Kempton Racing Tips (8th December) BOOK NOW FOR BOXING DAY MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

A Maiden over one-mile on standard going. Thirteen two-year-olds take part: eleven colts and two fillies. A mix of lightly-raced thoroughbreds from leading stables and two debutantes, including the well-bred New Style for Saeed Bin Suroor, sired by Street Cry out of Land Of Dreams who was a class sprinter, racing at the highest level before retiring at three. A debut winner at two, she was triumphant in the Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2). 

The betting will give a good clue to the likely chances of all. One horse that catches the eye is Entitling, trained by James Fanshawe. This bay colt, an Irish-bred son of Mastercraftsman, was an expensive yearling purchase for Suzanne Roberts from Tattersalls October Sales 2013 when achieving 200,000GNS. 

Now racing in the familiar silks of Ben MC Wong, this March foal was well backed on debut [12/1 - 15/2] when racing on good ground at Nottingham over 1m 1/2f. That was a promising first start, running on after being short of room.

Generally, Fanshawe's two-year-olds improve for their run and this youngster has the making of a fair horse. A high draw is a slight concern although that experience should help Tom Queally sit in a handy position. 

The betting will be the best indicator. Wait for the markets to settle before making judgement. If this horse is priced 13/2 & less SP it should run a big race featuring strong each-way claims. 

An intriguing race.  

5:45 Kempton Racing Tips (4th December) £25 FREE BET AT BETVICTOR MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

A maiden stakes over 6f on standard going. Twelve two-year-olds take part: colts & geldings bar one filly. The betting will be important here and if Nuno Tristan is backed he could well prove a decent each-way bet. 

William Jarvis has a small string of juveniles at Phantom House Stables in Newmarket but is a capable trainer who can turn out winners, especially on their second start. 

This America-bred colt is a son of Henrythenavigator out of a talented mare who raced twice but won both starts for John Gosden [owned by Robert Sangster] including the Princess Margaret Stakes (Group 3) at Ascot. 

The mare, Saintly Speech, was purchased by Blandford Bloodstock aged 11 for $110,000 at the Keeneland January Sales [2008]. 

Nuno Tristan is a well-bred horse who was similarly purchased by Blandford Bloodstock for 115,000gns from Tattersalls October Sales 2013. Clive Washbourn has been a long-term patron with Jarvis, who sent out debut winner L'Addition, a surprise 16/1 winner on the all-weather in July of this year. He also has horses stabled with David Barron, George Baker & Marco Botti. 

Nuno Tristan showed limited ability when making his debut at Nottingham over 6f on good ground. It is most likely this youngster needed that initial outing and better should be expected today. If priced in single figures this March foal has sound each-way claims from a fair draw and Graham Gibbons in the saddle. If weak in the betting best watched.
  

Another Day... A Few Cool Tips

Slightly irritated by yesterday's tip Solstalla. A wide draw was to blame and caught behind a wall of horses was a hammer blow. She ran on well at the line but all too late. Jarvis' filly would have gone close and almost certain to have been placed with an ounce of luck. 

A few cool tips today:



2:30 Carlisle - Shootingsta

A fairly competitive heat for a northern maiden. Shootingsta looked to have disappointed last start but that has turned out to be a hot maiden with the winner and second reaching for the stars. Bryan Smarts' colt was a touch keen last time out and ease in the ground didn't suit. He isn't the strongest-looking horse which slightly tempers my enthusiasm but on the over side of the coin is held in some regard by the trainer. This son of Fast Company is up to winning races and this firm ground should help. I'd expect a bold front-running display, so a fair chance of cashing your chips mid-race if you wish. Must have fair each way claims at respectable odds. 

6:25 Kempton - Commandaria, Light Fantastic & Cascades

I know what you are thinking...he's gone for a good few here. And so I have. These three juveniles feature highly on my statistical analysis to run big races. All have very good place claims and it wouldn't surprise me if they make a decent Trifecta. 

2:15 Kempton Racing Tip (4th August) £25 FREE BET AT BETVICTOR.COM MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

A Median Maiden Auction Stakes over 6f on standard ground. Eleven two-year-olds take part: nine colts/gelding and two fillies. The majority of the field are lightly raced. This looks out of four horses.

Richard Hannon is a force to be reckoned when it comes to quality juveniles racing in the familiar silks of Mrs Julie Wood. It's a formula many punters observe as a winner waiting to happen. State Of The Union is an Irish bred son of Approve purchase by Peter & Ross Doyle at the Doncaster Premiere Yearling Sale 2013 for £35,000. This January foal is a good-looking colt out of an unraced mare. He started his career at Newmarket when ridden by Frankie Dettori in what looked to be a pretty hot median auction maiden. Hugo Palmer's Home Of The Brave won comfortably from Athletico [Roger Charlton], the pair clear of State Of The Union, who was similarly proud of the fourth. This chestnut faded in the final furlong but sure to be fitter and wiser today. In some respects it is difficult to assess the form of that third although those ahead are talented. This will be an easier challenge.

Stinky Socks is one of two fillies in this field. This daughter of Footstepsinthesand was fancied to go well on debut and showed ability to chase home Ahlan Emarati [has run well at Group class] after finding herself in a difficult position. Charlie Hills youngster was sent off joint favourite on her next start over the minimum trip at Ascot but finished last, which was simply too bad to be true. With almost 90 days on the sidelines this filly must have suffered an injury. Clearly a horse with ability if not difficult to assess. The betting will give some indication and a marked drift would be a negative.

It's interesting to see Rockaroundtheclock & Spring Loaded returning after racing at Yarmouth over the minimum trip. Both horses will appreciate this step up in distance. 

The former trained by Paul Cole is held in some regard and must have frustrated connections on both starts because I know they expected more. A wide draw and inexperience scuppered any hope on debut at Goodwood. This son of Starspangledbanner looks a good breeze-up purchase at 20,000gns. He was expected to go well at Yarmouth but showed signs of inexperience but mainly struggled with the minimum trip. It was probably a combination of factors which saw him flatfooted halfway, then running on with spirit, but all too late. With only four runners it may have been a tactical race, which turned into a two-furlong sprint. The first and second have both franked the form to some extent. Cole will be hopeful this step up to six furlongs helps this colt sit in a handy position and from a decent draw may be driven to lead. There will be no excuses today. If connection's opinions are correct, this horse has enough ability to win. 

Paul D'Arcy doesn't have many two-year-olds in training but he is a talented handler. This son of Zebedee was actually purchased by the trainer at the yearling sales for £20,000. This grey/roan colt was well backed on debut and it may be significant that Ryan Moore was booked to ride. By all accounts Spring Loaded was too inexperienced to do himself justice and similar to Rockaroundtheclock hindered, if not by a tactical race but the minimum trip. He never looked like challenging but plugged on with some promise in the final furlong without being pressed. A wide draw isn't ideal but this extra furlong will benefit and there could be ample improvement. It is difficult to assess how he will fair with Cole's juvenile because both are likely to improve but it may be unwise to simply consider he will be beaten by his old adversary. 

Conclusion: A tricky race with the top fancies all having ability and all likely to show their form today. State Of The Union is a good-looking colt and the form of that Newmarket maiden may prove to be smart, for the grade. Stinky Socks has to prove she is back on song after a lengthy break and if weak in the betting is probably best watched. Rockaroundtheclock will be primed for a big run and from a favourable draw may lead. If available at each way prices could be worth a bet. I'm intrigued to see how Spring loaded compares to his old adversary. The draw isn't ideal. It's difficult to appreciate whether he can beat that horse but through those circumstances may be a big price in the betting. If forgotten in the market [14/1 or so on the exchanges] may be worth a few quid each way. If priced to chance, a watching brief. A fascinating heat. 

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6:45 Kempton Racing Tip: Golden Zephyr To Shine For Hills

With the sad loss of John Hills it would be a fitting tribute to see Golden Zephyr win this 6f maiden fillies stakes with his father, Barry [pictured] taking over the trainer's licence. This home bred daughter of Tamayus ran a sterling race on debut at Ascot over the minimum trip. John talked about this promising juvenile saying: ''This filly goes well, natural speed but like all of mine should improve from the experience in what looks a strong event. Nice debut 4th, just needs settle bit better next time and will go close.'' As a fitting tribute all race courses asked their patrons to give a minutes applause in his memory. It would be the greatest tribute of all to see this good-looking filly do him proud today. I will be cheering her home.