Tuesday 17 November 2015

5:25 Kempton Racing Tips (18th Nov) 32RED CASINO/EBF STALLIONS MAIDEN STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (Div I) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

Day 8 of The 30 Day Challenge.

5:25 Kempton:

A Maiden Stakes over 7f on standard going. Ten two-year-olds take part: nine colts and one filly. Two horses have race experience. Manson is one of few juveniles for Domonic Ffrench Davis but a talent with an official rating of 85, which sets a decent standard for others to achieve. This son of Equiano has raced three times and relatively fancied on all starts. He raced in the Convivial at York and held an engagement for Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1). It is a slight concern this chestnut colt has been off course for 75 days. With a less fashionable stable, there is a chance he may drift in the betting.  Should take the beating but I would take a watching brief unless around 11/4. 

A mix of debutantes from trainers large and small. The betting will tell the story for most. 

Little Salamanca and Lord Huntingdon has fair win and place claims if priced 7/1 & less sp. 

Luca Cumani doesn't feature the best strike rate on debut although War Story has place claims if priced in single figures.  

The only filly in the field, Rouge Noir, is a 68,000gns yearling purchase and hails from Jeremy Noseda's yard. The stable have fair win and place claims with debutantes priced 13/2 & less sp. 

5:55 Kempton:  

John Gosden's debutante Amanaat looks to be the talking horse here and odds on to take this maiden. Hamdan Al Maktoun's colt cost 280,000gns at the yearling sales. It is worth noting that this son of Exceed And Excel was entered for the Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1), which gives confidence. 

Enreaching is interesting. James Fanshawe's bay gelding cost 130,000gns at the yearling sales and races in the familiar silks of Ben CM Wong. This son of Dutch Art ran with promise on debut, behind a couple of decent types, and is likely to progress from that initial start. Juveniles from Pegasus Stables often improve quite markedly on their second and that factor brings hope. If priced 13/2 & less sp there could well be value for an each-way bet especially if priced around 5/1+. If the favourite is heavily backed there could be a chance this horse is pushed beyond that price guide. This always brings a dilemma with regarding betting or not. Personally, I would bet if priced 13/2 & less and take a watching brief if weak in the market. 

Soofiah should be respected if fancied in the betting while Broadway Icon is another with a fighting chance if backed to single figures. 

6:25 Kempton:

A decent sized field and in some respects a tricky race to asses. It is a restricted race which favours horses with proven experience over debutantes.The major hope is Predilection trained by John Gosden for Khalid Abdullah. This son of First Defence ran well on debut behind runaway winner King Of Rooks. This bay colt hasn't been seen since May, which brings some concerns. He steps up to 1m. At the prices [2/1], there isn't much value but I have sound facts to consider this two-year-old has decent  win and place claims. I'd be surprised if he isn't placed at worst and if drifting in the betting to each way would be a bet.   

Gregarious was a talking horse on debut. Lucy Wadham doesn't have many two-year-old talents and this attractive grey colt had been racing against other trained juveniles to gain a measure of ability. This Irish-bred son of Big Bad Bob was backed from big prices and ran a sterling race losing by half a length at odds of 8/1. Today the price will be much shorter, but a bold show should be expected.

Hughie Morrison has done well with his two-year-olds this season, a few going well on debut which defies the norm. Van Dyke was relatively fancied over course and distance when finishing second. Another horse which has sound win and place claims if priced 13/2 & less sp. 

Every Chance is worth watching in the betting, as fancied in the betting on debut, owned and trained by Jamie Osborne. If seriously backed would figure in the reckoning. 

Wednesday's Tips:

5:55 Kempton - Enreaching each-way (must be 13/2 & less sp) 2nd
6:25 Kempton - Predilection 11/4 adv 1st