A Maiden Stakes over 1m 2f on Standard going.
Six three-year-olds take part: three colts, two geldings and one filly who is the only debutante in the field.
A varied mix of trainers.
Very interested in Solajan. This son of Lope De Vega is trained by Ed Dunlop. He ran a promising race on debut when finishing runner-up. Saeed Jaber's charge cost 200,000G when purchased at two & fancied in the betting on debut when competing over one mile and half a furlong. He was denied by a head in a gritty finish. If you love Horse Racing Betting I'd advise this as a hot tip.
Dunlop is a superb talent & this step up in distance looks ideal. To be fair, the betting odds today may not leave much meat on the bone but this will be a tough horse to beat.
Definitely worthy of an interest especially if drifting in the betting.
Denis Quinn is making a name for himself in the training ranks. Arsenio Lupin has raced twice finishing third and fourth. This bay colt was purchased for just 9,000G when almost putting a smile on bookmaker's faces when beaten less than one length. He was priced 100/1.
By all accounts, even a place looked unlikely after a slow start, toiling in the rear, but finished with verve - not quite reaching the leaders. With a few extra yards, this son of Delegator would have won. Racing over the same distance of one mile on his second start at Lingfield, bookmakers were more fearful priced 6/1. This April foal dropped in class, by race type, being at auction race. He ran a fair race in fourth.
The only filly in the field is Cookie's Star. Philip McBride is a sharp-eyed trainer who knows his horses. This daughter of Kyllachy was a very cheap purchase at just 2,500G and part owned by McBride [& Howard Cooke]. It is slightly concerning this bay filly has such a paltry price tag although it isn't a damning sign for every horse. The betting is the best guide. If seriously backed, I would take note. Although, the trainer's debutantes often improve for the run unless the money is down.
I often give Richard Hughes a hard - because, in my opinion, he was a better jockey! He has many fancied horses which disappoint. Waterville Dancer is a son of Nathaniel who wasn't fancied on debut start at odds of 33/1. This 50,000G yearling purchase finished third of five. There should be improvement stepping up in distance but a difficult horse to assess.
John Best has lost horse numbers over the last few years, which is a shame because he has achieved great success in his career. Padrinho raced twice last year, down the field over seven furlongs, unplaced both starts at odds of 100/1. This bay gelding hasn't been seen since September when racing at Ascot. That may indicate Best holds this horse in some regard. This step up in distance will help. Not the easiest horse to assess but worthy of note if fancied in the betting.
Jose Santos is one of few trainers to have a winner priced 200/1. Flying Flynn has been relatively fancied compared to that surprise package. A couple of well-beaten placed effort see at horse rated just 60.
Conclusion: Time may tell this isn't the strongest race. Solajan will take some beating. If drifting a touch in the market, will be a worthy wager.
An EBF Maiden Stakes over 1m 1y on standard going. Ten two-year-olds take part and a fascinating contest.
Hydroxide is a class horse trained by Hugo Palmer and by all accounts a winner without a penalty. Two narrow loses to talented rivals must give a bittersweet taste for connections V I Araci. This son of Lope De Vega cost 205,000G at the breeze-up sales. If this Irish-bred had won on debut, it is very likely we would have contested a pattern race by now and is likely to be heading in that direction. This odds-on shot has to take some beating although there are a few juveniles in opposition who may hold some claims, perhaps more at each-way selections in hope that the favourite comes second best once more.
Balashakh was fancied to go well on debut when finishing fourth at odds of 6/4. This bay colt is an American-bred son of Blame and cost 100,000G at the yearling sales. He will improve for that debut effort and from a statistical point of view has very good win and place claims. Beating the likes of Hydroxide seems a pretty stiff task but if touching each-way prices could well be abet to nothing and hope this colt is much better than seen or the favourite has a taste for second place. Interesting.
*Envisaging is another horse who may be capable of more. James Fanshawe is a talented trainer and the betting indicates this Irish bred son of Zoffany could have a fair level of ability. Ben MC Wong's two-year-old cost 110,000G at the yearling sales rising markedly from his price at foal [17,500E]. He was much too keen last time out at Goodwood. He wasn't helped by a small field and ten runners and a wide draw may force the hand of Queally to sit in behind and progress from there. A tongue tie is applied for the first time. At odds of 12/1, he isn't beyond going well and good have realistic each-way claims.
Bocelli is a home bred from Mrs P Good. It would take a huge effort to win this race on debut although Simon Crisford has been in imperious with his debutantes this season.
Conclusion: A race to enjoy. Hydroxide will start favourite and on form will take all the beating. He hasn't done anything wrong in defeat although there is always a worry when a horse is defeated that it will become the norm. If defeated, it will be due to a talented opponent rather than a balls up. Balashakh got going all too late on debut but I'd expect a marked improvement here and he could be a worthy each-way alternative. I would be surprised if this colt isn't placed at worst. Envisaging is another horse who didn't go himself justice at Goodwood. He was must too keen but traveled very for a long way. If drifting to huge odds on the exchanges is worth a small each-way bet. If the favourite drifted to even money I would be tempted to have a win on the jolly and half point each on Balashakh and Envisaging.
* NR [Envisaging]
Day 10 of The 30 Day Challenge.
An EBF Maiden Stakes over 1m 1y on Standard going. Nine colts take part, just over half with race experience. Always Welcome catches the eye. This American-bred son of Elusive Quality out of a Group 1 winning mare. George Strawbridge's chestnut colt ran well on debut if not a touch keen and short of room. The winner may have been a big price but looked a fair juvenile. John Gosden has been in outstanding form all season and this April foal will be primed to go well. The horse to beat but - in truth - very little meat on the bone.
12:30 Lingfield - Division II
Quite an interesting race. Similar to the earlier division with nine two-year-olds, four lightly raced. A couple of fancied debutantes head the betting so it may give hope of value for one horse. Firstly, Godolphin field Brave Hero. This son of Poet's Cove out of a winning mare, who was twice Listed placed. He was purchased by John Fergusson Bloodstock for 75,000gns at the yearling sales. A plum draw and priced about even money [Tuesday evening] suggest a big run is expected. Once again, we have our eye on John Gosden's second time out, Palmerston. This bay colt, a son of Oasis Dream, was relatively fancied on debut but didn't show a great deal in fourth place eclipsed by Sir Michael Stoute's seven-length winner Estidraak. Lady Rothchild's home-bred is likely to improve for this step up to one mile. The betting is important and if priced 13/2 & less has sound each way claims. If particularly weak in the betting best to take a watching brief.
4:15 Kempton - A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f on Standard going. Just seven two-year-olds all with race experience bar one horse for Gay Kelleway. Fillies taking on the sole gelding. Fruit Salad was fancied by us last start and James Bethell's filly was a shade unlucky after finishing with gusto. These restricted race types don't make the strongest heats and this chestnut must have claims although I wonder if Fruit Salad might be slightly outpaced in the early stages and bigger odds in running but finish well.
Bit Of A Lad is worth noting for David Brown. This gelding, a son of Lilbourne Lad, was quite well backed on debut at Southwell and trailing in 9th place doesn't really do him any justice. It didn't look the strongest of maiden but on grade this is a drop in class. This 16,000gns yearling purchase may well be a touch lazy or tricky as he wore blinkers on debut. However, he travelled well and only tired in the closing stages after being competitive. Also, running the far rail at Southwell may have been a disadvantage. Bit Of A Lad has a hood on today. A good draw may tempt connections to lead. Not the easiest of horses to assess but a gelding against the fairer sex is not a bad angle. The betting is key. If priced 13/2 & less I'd give this juvenile fair win and place claims. If very weak in the market I'd take a watching brief.
5:45 Kempton - An EBF Maiden Stakes over 6f. Twelve two-year-olds take part: nine colts and three fillies. I'll keep this short and sweet. John Gosden could have a good day on the juvenile front and The Commendatore has strong claims. This son of Starbangledbanner cost 105,000gns at the yearling sales in the ownership of Michael Tabor and Rachel Hood. Inexperience cost this horse on debut and better should be seen on this second start. A good-looking type but probably priced to chance at even money.
12:30 Lingfield - Palmerston 9/2 3rd
4:15 Kempton - Bit Of A Lad No bet
Day 7 of The 30 Day Challenge. Not had a chance to think too much about these two divisions so I will write my summary as I think aloud (should be interesting).
An EBF Maiden Stakes over 1m 1y on Standard going.
Eleven two-year-olds compete - nine colts and two fillies, eight with experience. Not the most straightforward of races with a number of leading lights making their debut.
Afnaan is trained by Saeed Bin Suroor. This homebred, sired by Raven's Pass, is out of a winning mare. The stable has a fantastic strike rate with their two-year-olds and this youngster has the prime draw. Bin Suroor can ready juveniles to shine on debut and the stable have been in tremendous form. Debutantes bring an equal measure of hope and concern - inexperience can be costly. On statistics, he holds strong claims.
Always Welcome tells a similar story, representing John Gosden. This American-bred son of Elusive Quality is out of a triple-winning French mare who was lightly raced and reached the pinnacle of her career when winning the Del Mar Oaks (USA) at Grade 1. This homebred races in the familiar silks of George Strawbridge. Clarehaven Stables have been in flying form with their two-year-olds and have decent win and place claims when priced 13/2 & less SP. They often prove even more sturdy when priced 5/2 & less, which is a significant guide in my book. A wide draw is a slight negative but over this distance no major concern.
Jeremy Noseda fields the third of the noted debutants in the shape of Cap Canaille, a homebred for Sanford R Robertson. It is interesting to note this brown colt was sent twice to the yearling sales but withdrawn. This America-bred son of Giant's Causeway is out of a mare who won on debut, victorious at Group 3 and raced predominantly at Group 1 but never quite cut the mustard [the best being beaten less than two lengths when fourth]. She had an official rating of 110. Noseda has fair win and place claims when priced 13/2 & less.
On balance, there is little to pick between the three from a statistical point of view. I wouldn't like to pick between them although all have sound place claims.
An outsider who may be worth a second glance is St Michel trained by Sir Mark Prescott. This homebred son of Sea The Stars was fancied in the betting second start at Leicester although drifted markedly just before the off from 7/2 - 5/1. After showing good pace, he folded tamely in the final two furlongs and proved disappointing. The betting suggested a big performance was expected and it could be the case much better will be seen today. Clearly there are questions to be answered but at 14/1+ there might be a reason to have a small each-way bet and hope better is seen. Valuable experience gives an advantage over newcomers, but you are taking a gamble. If betting on the exchanges, I would look to lay at shorter odds if possible as an option to protect your stake.
12:40 Lingfield - Baydar has good win and place claims. The price doesn't give much value. Kalkrand is trained by John Gosden for Godolphin. This combination has been working and has fair win and place claims if priced 13/2 & less.
12:10 Lingfield - St Michel (20/1 adv) (small ew bet) 4th lost 3rd on line
A Median Auction Stakes over 5f 6y on standard going. A very restricted race type. This race was won last year by Cheerio Sweetie who showed good early form, made favourite for the Lily Agnes Conditions, before proving disappointing.
Five two-year-olds take part: two colts and three fillies, a couple once-raced, which on the face of it looks limited form.
Lingfield Lass and Ojai finished fourth and fifth respectively behind Rah Rah [trained by Mark Johnston] and the form has been franked to some degree by Anwar who finished second on her subsequent start.
Lingfield Lass is an Irish bred bay filly trained by John Best. A February foal, out of the poor sire Mullionmileanhour, who won a maiden race and was placed at Listed class. This horse didn't go through the sales and heralds from Best Breeding. Racing in the silks of Lingfield Park Owners Group, she made a satisfactory debut at odds of 16/1 when ridden by today's pilot Kieran Fox. This bay was given time to find her stride and ran on in the closing stages without threatening the lead. Experience is always a positive but improvement is needed. With such a small field betting guides may be conflicting although the stable's juveniles hold fair win and place claims when priced 5/1 & less on their second start.
Ojai was one place behind Lingfield Lass and more fancied in the betting at odds of 8/1. This brown filly was quite an early foal [18th February] sired by Big Bad Bob out of a once-race mare. Sold at the yearling sales for 16,000EUR, bought-in by Anthony Stroud Bloodstock who bred this juvenile with J Hanley & T Stewart. Ojai comes from a decent family including half-sister Dream Date. A few of the siblings have sold for good money. Now racing in the silks of Wood Hall Stud Ltd. Dean Ivory is a handler who knows how to win. This juvenile wasn't best away on debut and crossed by one of its opponents which meant she was a few lengths adrift, although pushed to be half competitive, then ran wide on the bend. She looked inexperienced and physically a touch weak. In addition, she has a slightly pronounced action. Fillies come in all shapes and sizes and not the easiest to assess but she looked like time would see her well. Dean Ivory's juveniles can improve a good deal for their first run and if starting on terms looks a similar standard to John Best's horse. Harper Lodge Farm can win on their second start and a few have done so at big odds. However, on balance, I'd have to take a watching brief.
The debutantes look most likely to take this contest. The problem with such cheap buys [if not lesser-bred juveniles] is that they are unlikely to be world beaters.
Ower Fly is a home bred son of Pastoral Pursuits out of a nine times winning handicap mare. This bay colt is drawn in stall one and hails from Richard Hannon's stable. It is difficult to access the likely standard of this horse although it wouldn't have to achieve a great deal to be competitive. Turning courses are never the easiest to handle for debutantes and a slow start or running wide on the bend are always a concern. One of the more likely contenders.
Mark Johnston has been in flying form with his early two-year-olds and could well come here with a firm grip of the form needed to prevail. This son of Fast Company is a home bred. Rogue's Gallery is ridden by 3lb apprentice Michael J M Murphy. As I have said before, I find Johnston's debutantes difficult to assess: they are either easy winners or poor losers and I will stick with that appraisal. I'd have to take a watching brief although fearful especially if starting favourite.
Robert Eddery is a trainer who I rate although he doesn't have a very good strike rate with his debutantes even those quite fancied in the betting. Priory is a bay filly and daughter of Mullionmileanhour [who doesn't inspire as a sire] out of a once-raced mare. This April foal is owned by the trainer.
Conclusion: These restricted races are often akin to plating class and it wouldn't be a surprise to see some entered at that grade in the next few months. I would often favour form horses at this level but Lingfield Lass and Ojai didn't inspire confidence on their racecourse bow. It is a difficult one because they have valuable experience and likely to improve for the race and most importantly connections will be aiming to win. The betting guides are somewhat conflicting as such a small field doesn't help asses the market. John Best has a fair win and place rate at 5/1 & less, while Dean Ivory's juveniles can find huge improvement from first to second start. Their success depends on the ability of those making their formative steps. Rogue's Gallery and Ower Fly would have to be favoured to take this contest. The former is trained by Mark Johnston and if strongly fancied in the betting it could be significant with winning two-year-olds aplenty. I find this stable difficult to predict. Ower Fly has fair breeding for this level and is taking after the dam will be a wiry character. I would give this horse the edge if pressed but at the odds there will be better more confident bets to come. Priory hails from a stable who often like a gamble but their strike rate on debut is poor. I would have to watch this race rather than bet.
A Maiden Stakes over 1m 1y on standard going for three and four-year-old colts & fillies. Eight lightly-raced thoroughbreds take part from leading stables. A difficult race to assess with a good few likely to progress with experience - but one horse does have some appeal. Wajeeh should make a bold show after a promising debut over course and distance. This three-year-old chestnut gelding is trained by Richard Hannon, racing in the colours of Al Shaqab Racing. A son of Raven's Pass, he cost 250,000gns at Tattersalls October Sales 2013. This January foal finished a respectable third on debut when ridden by Martin Dwyer and should improve on that first start. It is a plus to see Frankie Dettori takes the ride, his only mount of the day. Silent Thunder is one of the main dangers, being fancied to go well on all three starts to date but chopping and changing distance suggests William Haggis' colt is just ordinary and an official rating of 70 reflects that opinion. Looking at the exchanges, Wajeeh is shorter than the tissue prices suggested (9/4) - most likely odds-on. Remember it pays to look at bookmaker prices and especially free bets. Use this promo code to get a free £25 matched bet at William Hill. The betting suggests this expensive purchase will be very hard to beat.
A Maiden Stakes over 1m 2f on Standard going. Fourteen runners, most lightly raced, three debutantes. A trio of fillies taking on the colts. This intriguing race affords one horse which may be worth a second glance, especially if supported in the betting.
William Jarvis' Beau Knight wasn't fancied on debut, when finishing fourth over 8.5f at Wolverhampton.
This son of Sir Percy was sent off a 20/1 shot and certainly needed the experience and most importantly this step up in trip.
Racing in the familiar silks of owner Dr J Walker, this horse hails from a decent family.
William Jarvis isn't the type of trainer to run horses this time of year unless they have some hope of victory and his youngsters are noteworthy on their second start.
This bay colt has a plum draw (1) but wouldn't want to be ring-rusty as seen on his debut. However, that experience, and further trip, is likely to inspire connections to make a bold show and perhaps, even, front run.
The betting is very important to the chances of this January foal. The market will take time to settle and with a number of lightly-raced three-year-olds in the line-up it may be wise to wait for the cream to rise to the top. If weak in the market I would take a watching brief. However, if fancied and features a starting price of 8/1 and less, I'd give this stamina-bred horse decent each-way claims.
Some horses front run: others sit so far off the pace you need a pair of binoculars strapped to a telescope. Arlecchino's Leap, trained by Mark Usher, is the hold-up horse of all time. In fact, some budding astronomers have seen Halley's Comet before this laid-back two-year-old comes into view. It's a spectacle to watch this son of Kheleyf, who won at Wolverhampton over the minimum trip when ridden by able apprentice, Racheal Kneller, claiming a valuable five pounds. Similar restful tactics were employed last time at Kempton when this brown colt ran on with verve but couldn't quite reach the leaders. I wouldn't bet on this horse at SP but if you fancy a speculative punt you may be able to catch huge odds in running. Remember you will need your binoculars.
A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 5f on standard going. Quite a restricted race type for two-year-olds from an established sire with one or more yearling sales in 2013 of no more than £19,000.
Nine juveniles are entered to run over this minimum trip on a turning course, which favours experienced horses. Five colts & one gelding take on the remaining fillies. A mix of top trainers take part in this Class 5 race.
Johnny Sorerento is on a recovery mission after finishing last on debut in the Brocklesby. There was money for this colt and the stable were hopeful of a fair run. It wouldn't be beyond the realm to see a more professional performance today with that initial experience under his belt.
Stan Moore won this race last year with Far Gaze, who was making his second start. The Moore The Merrier syndicate field Mount Isla racing in the same colours. This bay gelding, who is a son of Bushranger, cost just £6,000 when purchased by the trainer at the yearling sales. The twice French-raced dam showed little ability at three. Moore reported their juveniles have only just started working on the grass as it had been so wet and detailed that his three Brocklesby participants needed the race. His two-year-olds have a poor strike rate on debut and I would suspect this January foal will be better for the experience.
The betting will be a good guide to the majority of the debutantes.
Bill Turner needs no introduction with his two-year-olds of which he has a string of fifteen. The Sigwells handler has reported his juveniles to be backward this year although the string have progressed in the last two weeks. Paddy Again ran well when second in the Brocklesby. Connections should have a fair guide to their chances. Hell Of A Lord is a homebred colt owned by Mrs M Teversham. The mare, Miss Brookie, was similarly owned and trained - although a limited sprinter, she won at two. The sire was a talented two-year-old trained by Bryan Smart winning the Coventry Stakes (Group 2) and hit the frame in the Middle Park Stakes (Group 1). The stable usually have their juveniles fit and ready so drawn in stall one should be a positive. It is worth noting that for all Turner is credited as a trainer of first-time-out winners, his statistics do not give evidence to this point. He features about a 5% win rate with debutantes which does bring some concern. The fact that his horses run so well in the Brocklesby can be somewhat misleading to his next few runners which often prove lesser. A juvenile to respect but not for me if short in the betting.
Rose Of Kiev hails from Mark Johnston's stable who can be tricky to assess on debut. As I have said many times 'his debutantes can be categorised as easy winners or poor losers'. This bay filly cost just 7,000 euros as a yearling. The sire was a class horse but wasn't a sprinter while the mare showed little ability in two starts. A horse I would rather watch than bet.
Pickle Lilly Pearl is trained by David Griffiths, who certainly knows how to train a two-year-old winner. The stable is perhaps a little less fashionable that a few of these but someone I respect. Lilo Lil was a fair horse for them last year. This bay filly cost 13,000 euros at the yearling sales and bred to be a sprinter. The mare won her first two starts over the minimum trip and then was placed at Group 2 level in Chantilly, France. Probably the type to take a watching brief but could be primed for a canny stable.
Tom Dascombe is one of few trainers who can prime a two-year-old for a big debut performance. Richard Kingscote takes the ride on Don Sigfredo. This son of Majestic Missile is out of a Listed-placed mare and cost 29,000gns at the yearling sales. He is a half-brother to Andhesontherun, who won on debut for Roger Varian and wasn't disgraced in the Richmond Stakes (Group 2). A wide draw is never ideal for a juvenile on their racecourse bow, especially on a turning course. The betting is the best guide and if priced 7/1 & less has respectable win and place claims.
The last of the fillies in the line-up is David Evans' Cheerio Sweetie. This stable are very much in the mould of Jack Berry with the approach of keeping their horses busy. This bay daughter of Captain Rio cost 20,000gns at the Tattersalls Yearling Sales. The stable don't feature a very good strike rate at the course although their two-year-olds have claims when priced 13/2 & less on debut. In general, their debutantes are difficult to assess and the types to either win well or falter. Money would be a good sign although I would rather take a watching brief.
A trainer who can go well with his debutantes is Ralph Beckett. The stable often go well with their early runners and they have a decent strike rate at this course. Jim Crowley rides the all-weather tracks particularly well. Designate is a son of Approve and owned by Highclere Thoroughbred Racing Ltd. He cost 27,000gns at the yearling sales and half-brother to Bronze Angel. If fancied in the betting, has fair win and place claims but another who has to overcome a wide draw.
Jet Mate cost 35,000gns purchased and trained by William Muir. This chestnut colt sired by Fast Company was born in January and half-brother to Sorella Bella (who finished 2nd in the Gran Criterium (Group 1) at San Siro, Italy). This family have achieved a good few winners. The owner, Martin Graham, has done well with his horses over the years (Blue Jack won on debut) and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see this juvenile progress with racing. The stable have a fair strike rate at this course and it is intriguing to see this colt out so early. On average, Muir's youngsters need the run unless talents.
Conclusion: A tricky race to assess. Turning courses can be a rude awakening for two-year-olds on debut and those with a savvy will hold a fair advantage. A wide draw could be a concern unless swift of foot. Johnny Sorrento needs a transformation after showing little on debut but that experience will help today. Statistically Don Sigfredo & Designate are the most interesting. Don Sigfredo hails from a top-class stable who can go well on debut. If priced 7/1 & less I would consider this juvenile to have fair win and place claims. However, a wide draw is enough for me to take a watching brief. Designate is another to respect and perhaps on balance the most likely of these runners. Hell of A Lord & Cheerio Sweetie are difficult to assess. The stables can go well with their early two-year-olds and both have positives and negatives. Money would be a good sign but I would be tempted to take a watching brief. Rose Of Kiev looks to need further and Johnston just doesn't appeal to me as a bet on debut. Pickle Lilly Pearl is quite well bred and may show ability but not the type I would wager unless speculative odds. Jet Mate and Mount Isla may prove better on their second start. I'd have to take a watching brief.
Ex Ex likes to track the leaders and isn't in my top six rated, so think he might find the pace a bit too quick. Roy's Legacy usually likes to lead but that's over five furlongs and to have any chance today at six furlongs I think it needs to be held up because there's two other horses that can try to lead. Temple Lord can either be held up or track the leaders and comes out sixth on my figures so may have slight place claims but I don't think it is good enough to win. Meridius may need the run as he's been absent since October and isn't in my top four ratings. He did produce a good speed figure at Nottingham on good-to-firm going but over seven furlongs. He can be held up or track the leaders but on what its shown so far on the all-weather it's not for me. MULTITASK comes out top on my ratings and is another that likes to either track the leaders or be held up. El Mirage has recorded times over course and distance that are not quick enough to win this race even though he likes to either chase the leaders or can try to lead. Haadeeth, another horse that can try to lead or track the leaders, comes out fourth on my figures so could have place claims. Compton Prince won over course and distance last time out so shows it's in good form. It likes to track the leaders so another with place claims at the least. Dark Lane is a hold up or track leaders type and is second best in my ratings so has place claims and must rate the main danger. Star Up In The Sky is another horse that can try to lead but it's best figures come at Southwell so I doubt if this much faster course will suit. Shifting Star hasn't produced any fast figures over the distance and will probably find this trip a bit on the short side even though he can either track the leaders or be held up. I think he might be outpaced here. Spellmaker's figures on this course make it fourth in my ratings but he does have slightly better figures at Kempton. Those figures would move him up a place on my ratings. It's a hold up horse but I'm thinking it might not quite get to the leaders.
SUMMARY: There are four horses that can try to lead so it should be a decent pace to the race. The best of the leaders comes out fourth top so it looks like a race that will suit those who track the leaders. The two only genuine hold-up horses don't look capable of getting there to be involved at the finish. Multitask is well berthed in stall three so should be able to sit just behind the pace on the rails or very close to them and stay on well at the finish & hopefully win. There's only two firms pricing up the race at this time: Bet365 have Ex Ex as their 7/2 fav while Paddy Power have the same horse as their 9/4 fav. I'm surprised to see such a variance in thoughts from them but then again I don't think they are right with their choice of fav. If I could lay Ex Ex at around the 5/2 mark I would be doing so. There's only half a point difference with them on Multitask 9/2-4/1 (E.R.I.C.)
A Maiden Stakes over 7f on standard going. Seven three-year-olds take part: four colts, three fillies, including a trio of debutantes. Most are lightly raced bar Treasure Cay, who is on his fifth start. Philip McBride is an astute trainer and very good at placing his horses, especially on their second start. Walk With An Angel is a daughter of Myboycharlie out of a of a multiple-winning mare. This bay filly was a cheap yearling purchase at just 2,000gns and owned by the trainer. She was relatively fancied on debut but didn't help her cause by taking a keen hold in the early part of the race. It wasn't a surprise to see this youngster tire in the final furlong and with over two months on the sidelines there should be improvement and that initial experience could bring hope. McBride should have this March foal primed to run a big race. Louis Steward takes off a valuable 5lb. It is a shame there are only seven runners as two places does slightly detract. It is never easy taking on the colts and a key factor could well relate to whether the debutantes are ring rusty. Walk With An Angel has fair each way claims at respectable odds. (HCE)
2.35 Lingfield - For this Class 4 handicap race I've gone each way on Sir Pedro. I really would have preferred there to be at least eight runners but I do think it's a two-horse race. Early pace will come from either Fair Value or Gregori. Fair Value has recorded a really good figure over this distance but on good to firm going. But its times on the all-weather are no where nearly as good and it also might need a run having been off since November 20th. Gregori is the other possible pace setter - this comes out second on my ratings - so has to be respected and even more so if it gets an uncontested lead. I'm going with the top rated Sir Pedro. It is a hold-up type, and has to have a chance if they go too fast. I'd have saver on Gregori.
3.45 Lingfield - A very nice Class 2 handicap. Three horses have been known to lead: Nocturn, Perfect Pasture and Iptism. Although none of them are what I would call a natural front runners. Perfect Pasture would have a chance of leading all the way but could just as easily employ different tactics. Four of today's runners ran on January 4th where Perfect Pasture won with Rivellino, Diamond Charlie, and Noble Deed in behind. Rivellino is weighted to reverse the form but Diamond Charlie lost his position that day and it cost him quite a bit. With a clear run he could prove victorious. Also, this gelding recorded the fastest figure over course and distance on November 20th. At odds of 14/1 he could be a good each-way bet.
4.20 Lingfield - Rigolleto and Haadeeth have tried to win from the front before. But the confirmed front runner is Mac's Power. He's not drawn best in stall nine but to counteract that he's dropped in class. Hopefully he can get to the front. If so, he has the speed to keep all at bay for the win. (E.R.I.C.)
2.35 Lingfield - Sir Pedro 11/2 ew 5th
3.45 Lingfield - Diamond Charlie 14/1 ew Unp
4.20 Lingfield - Macs Power 11/2 ew 2nd
2.35 Lingfield - the early pace could come from Waterloo Dock, Demoiselle Bond or Seamster. According to my ratings these three horses come out on top as well so I doubt if there's any other horse that can win this race. All three are not ideally drawn in stalls 11-7-12. I don't know which one will lead but it will be a battle for them from the draw to lead. *Waterloo Duck comes out top on form at Lingfield but if Seamster can reproduce its Kempton times at this course it could possibly win. Demoiselle Bond is drawn nearer to the rail in stall 7 so that could give that horse the advantage, so probably a dutch on these three horses is the answer. 8.00 Wolverhampton - this could be a fast run race. Lexis Hero really likes to lead and Majestic Manannan, I'll Be Good, Island Legend have all been known to lead if needs be. The selection Island Legend can also perform to the same level by being held up just off the pace and should be able to do that coming out of stall 2 despite all the early pace coming from the four inside stalls.
2.35 Lingfield - *Waterloo Dock 8/1 ew *NR
8.00 Wolverhampton - Island Legend 5/1 ew
12.50 Lingfield - two horses are the most likely pace setters: Chevise and Putin. I doubt if the former will be good enough to win this race from the front but it's a different story with Putin. He led before but was beaten by Pharoh Jake. However, he should be able to hold it at bay, so if he leads I think he could win the race or at least make the frame. A decent each way bet at 12/1.
1.25 Lingfield - only one confirmed front runner in this race - Clock Opera. I think this filly will lead all the way and is a decent price at 11/2. It's second favourite behind Random Success, who won last time out at this course over five furlongs, but the time before that got beaten but only just over six furlongs. The time wasn't very good compared to the selection but it has only just turned four so could improve. But I'll go with proven form and I think Clock Opera could lead all the way to win or the least I would expect is a place which will show a small profit.
12.50 Putin 1st 5/1 (advised 12/1)
1.25 Clock Opera 3rd 6/1
2.00 Lingfield - The early pace could come from Kuanyan, Lexis Hero or Liberty Jack. So it could play into the hands of the selection, Seek The Fair Land, who can track the leaders or be held up. There are only seven runners but it does have the best time figure and hopefully win.
2.30 Lingfield - the selection, Roy's Legacy, is not drawn that well in stall eight for a front runner but none of the others are known for being pace setters so it should get an uncontested lead and win from the front.
5.00 Wolverhampton - there are only six runners in this race and no known pace setter so could become tactical. Electric Qatar has the top speed figure and is a hold up horse so should be able to stay in contention throughout the race and finish best of all to win.
2.00 Lingfield - Seek The Fair Land 3rd 7/2
2.30 Lingfield -Roys Legacy 1st 6/5
5.00 Wolverhampton - Electric Qatar 2nd 11/4
Catalina's Diamond is likely to be held-up or track leaders. She comes out third on my ratings over course and distance, so must have a each way claims. Compton Prince likes to track the leaders but only comes out fifth best rated so doubt this race will be within his capabilities. Proper Charlie is another hold-up type and comes out top rated. Johnny Splash likes to track the leaders but according to my figures will struggle to even hit the frame. Green Millionaire may want a longer trip. This gelding's form is fairly poor but he has only had five runs so could improve and this track could suit. Personally, I couldn't back it on what its shown so far. Volito has never finished better than third from eight runs on the all weather. I think this gelding would be better over 5f even though it's a hold-up type. Reginald Claude comes out fourth on my ratings and is held on form by Catalina's Diamond. A place is the best it could hope. Imperial Spirit has shown very little time-wise on good-to-firm ground so I doubt this course will suit. Waterloo Rock has produced a slow time over course and distance and may not be good enough. He will either lead or track the leaders. Fleetwoodsands is fairly weighted and comes out second on my figures even though I think he will be even better over a longer distance. The type to run on at the finish. Daneside has very poor recent form and this trip may be too short. I doubt this son of Danehill Dancer will be involved in the finish. Brandywell Boy's times are poor and looks better at 5f.
Conclusion: The early pace may come from Waterloo Rock but I'll be very surprised if he can last to the line. However, if a horse gets an uncontested lead, they can be difficult to catch. The horse that comes out top on my figures is Proper Charlie. He is well clear so must have a good chance. Its best time came three runs ago, over course and distance, when it finished third. His two runs since have been at this course but over 7 furlongs where he didn't stay the trip. The last run was at Wolverhampton, a course he's tried three times, and although two of the finishing positions may look good - the times were poor. Paige Bolton is having her fifteenth ride and yet to ride a winner. She showed ability on another horse from this stable, Copperwood, so I'm hoping she can repeat that on Lee Carter's horse today.
12.30 Lingfield: I think the early pace will probably come from Roy's Legacy and wouldn't be surprised to see him lead all the way. The only danger I can see is Pharoh Jake who can be held up or sit just off the pace. That gelding ran a very good time over 6f on the course and if able to stay with the early pace may prove the stronger. My verdict is to back Roy's Legacy with a saver bet on Pharoh Jake.
4.00 Wolverhampton: This is a fairly poor sprint and nothing has produced a speed figure of any real note. Top rated is Glenten who hasn't run for 330 days plus the trainer hasn't trained an older horse winner for some months. The horse usually likes to lead but even if it does, with its absence and the trainers form, I can't see it being good enough today. Marmot Bay also likes to lead but doesn't look good enough to win the race. Another who could possibly lead is Lucky Mark but this is another horse from a stable that isn't showing any form with its horses. My only opinion for a bet would be a small each way wager on Night Trade at 20/1.
4.30 Wolverhampton: I think the early pace in this race may come from Fat Gary. He comes out third on my ratings and may get an uncontested lead, then be hard to catch. Also, he's only just turned four and may have further improvement. However, I think Mappin Time may be the one to catch the leader. My verdict: Mappin Time is the bet with a saver on Fat Gary.
An EBF Maiden Stakes over 6f on standard going. Twelve juveniles take part, three fillies taking on the colts. All have race experience. James Fanshawe isn't the type of trainer to keep his two-year-olds on the go beyond the turf season and He's My Boy has shown promise on a couple of starts to date. This grey colt, a son of Dark Angle out of a debut-winning mare, has been relatively fancied in the betting, although a marked drifting just before the off when making his racecourse bow at Yarmouth. That most likely indicated a slight lack of fitness. I had this May foal in my sights when re-appearing less than two weeks later at Kempton. The stable went there with a fighting chance and while backed from 20-1 - 14/1 they knew they had their work cut out . This colt traveled well that day and headed the field at the two furlong pole but couldn't muster any real fight against the first three who are probably fair juveniles for this time of year. He's My Boy is far from a world beater and in truth still looks a little on the weak side. However, for a sizable field there doesn't look a great deal of opposition and there is some hope of hitting the frame if each way odds are for the taking. The main protagonists look to have something to prove with the application of the blinkers for Penny Sixpence, who must show ample ability on the gallops, but hasn't looked the most enthusiastic. While Flicksta seems more at home over the minimum trip and hindered by a wide draw. He could well try to get to the rail and consequently struggle to get home. He's My Boy should travel well - touching shorting odds in running - and looks good for a place, with chances of a win.
A Maiden Stakes for colts & geldings over one mile on standard going. Ten two-year-olds takes part: four with race experience, the majority debutantes from leading stables. Alpine Retreat and Alex Vino set the standard, both running creditably on debut and showing a decent level of form. Readers may remember I hoped debutante - Ian's Memory - would make his appearance at Yarmouth's Eastern Festival but this son of Smart Strike (CAN) was withdrawn at the declaration stage, most probably due to soft ground. This February foal was purchased at the Keeneland September Sales for $235,000. This bay/brown colt is held in very high regard by the stable and one of their leading juveniles. Frankie Dettori has a very good win rate on Noseda's two-year-olds and the stable have a similarly high strike rate at the course. However, this youngster seems quite weak on the exchanges. It could well be the case that Ryan Moore is obliged to ride for Sir Michael Stoute although it could be viewed as something of a negative for Ian's Memory that Moore was actually booked to ride him at Yarmouth. The betting is probably the best guide and if particularly weak in the betting come race start it may suggest the race is needed. Conversely, if substantially backed it would be a positive. If priced 13/2 & less sp has fair win and place claims although the two favourites are most likely to use their experience to go very well. I'd be tempted to take a watching brief with a view to betting Ian's Memory second start.
A Maiden Auction Stakes over 1m on standard going. Twelve two-year-olds take part in this restricted race type, the majority lightly raced and three debutantes. Paul Cole may not have as big string of juveniles these past few seasons but he is none the less a talented trainer who knows a fair horse. Elysian Prince is a son of Champs Elysees out of a poor mare, similarly owned and trained. This home bred was sent through the sales ring as a yearling for 15,000gns and bought by the vendor. This tactic is often used by private breeders to make them legible for such low-grade races as this bay colt contests today. This April foal ran in a tough race when making his debut over 1m at Goodwood. I doubt connections held any great expectation they would return victorious although buoyed by a pleasing introduction. As with most juveniles, Elysian Prince will be primed to run a big race on his second start, hailing from a trainer who follows a similar path. This is a huge drop in class. Although a big field, the majority of horses are limited. In reality this class of race compares with plating grade. This youngster will take the beating although probably priced to chance about 3/1. If touching each way prices would make a fair bet.
