A Maiden Auction Stakes over 7f on standard to slow going. Fourteen runners and a few to note. Not enough time to go too in depth but pointers to help narrow the field.
Sterling Lines didn't show any ability on debut at Goodwood but a couple of Group entries suggest much better is expected for Mrs Fitri Hay's colt, trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam. The betting is key. If fancied it will speak volumes. If priced 13/2 & less I'd expect a big run although a wide draw isn't ideal. If outside this betting guide, I'd take a watching brief. The entries are interesting.
You N Me hails from a trainer I have great respect in Karl Burke. This daughter of Footstepsinthesand was given a Lowther Stakes (Group 2) entry [Thursday at York]. Clearly, this bay filly isn't up to that class. She was relatively fancied on debut over 6f at Carlisle but faded after showing pace. This race type is similar to her debut and the extra furlong will help. More is needed today. The betting is very important. If priced 13/2 & less I'd expect a bold show and decent win and place claims. If weak, best left alone.
Harry Spiller may be in his formative season but he's a trainer who could well go places in time. I noted Star Glimmer before debut at Kempton when backed from 100/1 - 50/1. This daughter of Kodiac wasn't disgraced in fifth behind a few talents. That was an EBF Maiden Stakes indicating this is a step down in class. Spiller gave this juvenile a stakes race entry before debut, which I took as a sign of confidence. I can see this filly going well.
Miss Blondell was a huge price on debut in a hot maiden at Goodwood, where she ran on with verve. Tregoning has sent a few juveniles to race at that grade 1 course over the years and they have often been his better types. There is always a slight concern horses running from off the pace may be flattered. The betting guide suggests this daughter of Compton Place has each way claims.
Conclusion: The betting will be the best guide for most. Sterling Lines & You N Me would need to be priced 13/2 & less to figure. However, both have been given significant entries which gives encouragement. The former could show marked improvement and if strongly fancied I would expect a big run. You N Me was a touch disappointing on debut but may have needed the race and will appreciate this step up in distance. If in the best betting guide, would have decent each way claims. If both are weak in the betting - best watched. Harry Spiller will be hopeful Star Glimmer goes well. She ran in a fair race on debut and this is an easier target. A wide draw isn't ideal but over this distance there is time to find a position. Has each way claims and worth a bet if available at big odds [10/1+]. Miss Blondell has claims but best watched.
An intriguing maiden. At most a four-horse race. Not really telling you much there. Sirajiah was fancied to go well on debut for William Haggas but needed to be flying to beat WhatdoIwantthatfor. I'm not sure this drop back to 5f will suit. However, with a Lowther Stakes (Group 2) and Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) entry has to be respected.
Little Voice has been given a string of lofty entries but I can't help thinking this daughter of Scat Daddy is better on the gallops. The step up to 6f at Windsor, perhaps, didn't suit and this bay filly was put in her place by Justice Lass.
Rosie Royce and Apasiona contested the same race over 5f at Sandown. The former trained by Henry Candy was fancied in the betting but had no luck in running. She coasted home and is clearly capable of much better. I'd expect a bold show.
Apasiona is held in some regard by Alan McCabe although his two-year-olds have been pretty poor this season and with a few gambles going astray I have the feeling their string hasn't lived up to earlier hopes.
I'm pretty sure connections of Sirajiah and Little Voice will be expecting a win. Little Voice is held in high regard but has had her chances and I would take a watching brief. Sirajiah will be primed. I wonder if 5f will be a touch too fast. On statistics Rosie Royce has the best chance - decent win and place claims although lacking Group entries.
At the odds I would have a small each way bet on Rosie Royce if priced 13/2 & less SP (no bet outside this guide). At 5/1 should be a no-lose bet if placed and hopeful of more.
5:20 Newcastle - A very restricted race type. These limited races often go to a form horses and Dark Confidant is likely to go well for Richard Guest. This son of Royal Applause ran well on debut - traveled with ease - but slightly disappointed when dropped back to 6f. That shorter trip tapped his pace and probably made for a weak finish. I'd expect this bay gelding to travel with authority and touch shorter odds in running. Must have strong each way claims. Interesting to see how Micheal Dods' debutante goes.
Wayside Magic is a cheap purchase and gelded. Denton Hall have good place claims with their two-year-old debutantes and they often go well at Newcastle and like softer going. I'd probably watch this horse unless 16/1+. Dark Confidant is a decent each-way bet. Might be worth a small rev f/c with Wayside Magic to pay a lot of money.
7:10 Kempton - Nemoralia is held in high regard by Jeremy Noseda and withdrawn last time which suggests connections want to make this race count. This daughter of More Than Ready made a promising debut and sterling second start at Newmarket. She is sure to run well but the down side is the price. Not much meat on the bone. I'd hold out and hope this youngster drifts in the betting and step in if 1/1 is available.
An outsider which may be worth a small bet is Henry Spiller's Star Glimmer. This daughter of Zodiac is a cheap buy for the rookie trainer and the only sign of ability is the knowledge she has been given a stakes entry. At odds of 100/1 she may get a place.
2:00 Chepstow - Rosie Royce 5/1 [Paddy Power] small ew 3rd
5:20 Newcastle - Dark Confidant 4/1 (NAP) decent ew bet 3rd
7:10 Kempton - Nemoralia 8/11 bet if evens is available 1st (touched evens exchanges)
Small ew treble
