Tuesday 10 November 2015

6:10 Kempton Racing Tips (11th Nov) 32RED.COM MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STAKES (Div II) (CLASS 6) (2yo)

Day 3 of the 30-Day Challenge. The results have shown promise. 

A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 1m. Quite a restricted race type which gives prominence to form horses. 

A large field of thirteen runners: ten colts/geldings and three fillies. Eight of the field have experience and one horse catches the eye. Andrew Balding's horses have been in decent form and Charmy looks a live chance here although there is one stumbling block which I'm sure you eagle-eyed readers have noted. This bay filly is a daughter of Yeats out of an unraced mare. 

This homebred is related to Room Key, who wasn't without some ability for Eve Johnson-Houghton. 

Charmy made her debut at Newmarket over 7f in July, a race where the form has been franked on a number of occasions. This March foal was slow from the stall but threatened to win until tiring in the last furlong to finish fifth. 

By all accounts, this is a drop in class.  

It is worth noting that Balding gave this filly an entry for the Rockfel Stakes (Group 2), which suggests she is one of the stable's better two-year-olds. 

The downside is a wide draw in stall thirteen (hopefully not unlucky for some). It will be interesting to see which tactics are employed, but it would be no surprise to see Murphy [jockey] make a bold bid from the front. 

Over one mile, there should be plenty of time to find a position and run a big race. The early prices detail a 5/2 chance which, again, doesn't leave much meat on the bone. I would be hoping the draw helps Charmy drift to an each-way price (probably got my rose-tinted glasses on here). 

If betting on the exchanges, you may be able to achieve much bigger prices, especially if held up off the pace. 

Basically, Charmy should run a big race even with these concerns.