12:00 Lingfield Racing Tips (25th Nov) 32RED/IRISH STALLION FARMS EBF MAIDEN STAKES (Div I) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

Day 10 of The 30 Day Challenge.

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 1m 1y on Standard going. Nine colts take part, just over half with race experience. Always Welcome catches the eye. This American-bred son of Elusive Quality out of a Group 1 winning mare. George Strawbridge's chestnut colt ran well on debut if not a touch keen and short of room. The winner may have been a big price but looked a fair juvenile. John Gosden has been in outstanding form all season and this April foal will be primed to go well. The horse to beat but - in truth - very little meat on the bone. 

12:30 Lingfield - Division II

Quite an interesting race. Similar to the earlier division with nine two-year-olds, four lightly raced. A couple of fancied debutantes head the betting so it may give hope of value for one horse. Firstly, Godolphin field Brave Hero. This son of Poet's Cove out of a winning mare, who was twice Listed placed. He was purchased by John Fergusson Bloodstock for 75,000gns at the yearling sales. A plum draw and priced about even money [Tuesday evening] suggest a big run is expected. Once again, we have our eye on John Gosden's second time out, Palmerston. This bay colt, a son of Oasis Dream, was relatively fancied on debut but didn't show a great deal in fourth place eclipsed by Sir Michael Stoute's seven-length winner Estidraak. Lady Rothchild's home-bred is likely to improve for this step up to one mile. The betting is important and if priced 13/2 & less has sound each way claims. If particularly weak in the betting best to take a watching brief. 

4:15 Kempton -  A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f on Standard going. Just seven two-year-olds all with race experience bar one horse for Gay Kelleway. Fillies taking on the sole gelding. Fruit Salad was fancied by us last start and James Bethell's filly was a shade unlucky after finishing with gusto. These restricted race types don't make the strongest heats and this chestnut must have claims although I wonder if Fruit Salad might be slightly outpaced in the early stages and bigger odds in running but finish well.  

Bit Of A Lad is worth noting for David Brown. This gelding, a son of Lilbourne Lad, was quite well backed on debut at Southwell and trailing in 9th place doesn't really do him any justice. It didn't look the strongest of maiden but on grade this is a drop in class. This 16,000gns yearling purchase may well be a touch lazy or tricky as he wore blinkers on debut. However, he travelled well and only tired in the closing stages after being competitive. Also, running the far rail at Southwell may have been a disadvantage. Bit Of A Lad has a hood on today. A good draw may tempt connections to lead. Not the easiest of horses to assess but a gelding against the fairer sex is not a bad angle. The betting is key. If priced 13/2 & less I'd give this juvenile fair win and place claims. If very weak in the market I'd take a watching brief. 

5:45 Kempton -  An EBF Maiden Stakes over 6f. Twelve two-year-olds take part: nine colts and three fillies. I'll keep this short and sweet. John Gosden could have a good day on the juvenile front and The Commendatore has strong claims. This son of Starbangledbanner cost 105,000gns at the yearling sales in the ownership of Michael Tabor and Rachel Hood. Inexperience cost this horse on debut and better should be seen on this second start. A good-looking type but probably priced to chance at even money. 

12:30 Lingfield - Palmerston 9/2 3rd
4:15 Kempton  - Bit Of A Lad No bet

12:10 Lingfield Racing tips (17th Nov) 32RED/IRISH STALLION FARMS EBF MAIDEN STAKES (Div I) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

Day 7 of The 30 Day Challenge. Not had a chance to think too much about these two divisions so I will write my summary as I think aloud (should be interesting). 

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 1m 1y on Standard going. 

Eleven two-year-olds compete - nine colts and two fillies, eight with experience. Not the most straightforward of races with a number of leading lights making their debut. 

Afnaan is trained by Saeed Bin Suroor.  This homebred, sired by Raven's Pass, is out of a winning mare. The stable has a fantastic strike rate with their two-year-olds and this youngster has the prime draw. Bin Suroor can ready juveniles to shine on debut and the stable have been in tremendous form. Debutantes bring an equal measure of hope and concern - inexperience can be costly. On statistics, he holds strong claims.

Always Welcome tells a similar story, representing John Gosden. This American-bred son of Elusive Quality is out of a triple-winning French mare who was lightly raced and reached the pinnacle of her career when winning the Del Mar Oaks (USA) at Grade 1. This homebred races in the familiar silks of George Strawbridge. Clarehaven Stables have been in flying form with their two-year-olds and have decent win and place claims when priced 13/2 & less SP. They often prove even more sturdy when priced 5/2 & less, which is a significant guide in my book. A wide draw is a slight negative but over this distance no major concern.    

Jeremy Noseda fields the third of the noted debutants in the shape of Cap Canaille, a homebred for Sanford R Robertson. It is interesting  to note this brown colt was sent twice to the yearling sales but withdrawn. This America-bred son of Giant's Causeway is out of a mare who won on debut, victorious at Group 3 and raced predominantly at Group 1 but never quite cut the mustard [the best being beaten less than two lengths when fourth]. She had an official rating of 110. Noseda has fair win and place claims when priced 13/2 & less. 

On balance, there is little to pick between the three from a statistical point of view. I wouldn't like to pick between them although all have sound place claims.

An outsider who may be worth a second glance is St Michel trained by Sir Mark Prescott. This homebred son of Sea The Stars was fancied in the betting second start at Leicester although drifted markedly just before the off from 7/2 - 5/1. After showing good pace, he folded tamely in the final two furlongs and proved disappointing. The betting suggested a big performance was expected and it could be the case much better will be seen today. Clearly there are questions to be answered but at 14/1+ there might be a reason to have a small each-way bet and hope better is seen. Valuable experience gives an advantage over newcomers, but you are taking a gamble. If betting on the exchanges, I would look to lay at shorter odds if possible as an option to protect your stake. 

12:40 Lingfield - Baydar has good win and place claims. The price doesn't give much value. Kalkrand is trained by John Gosden for Godolphin. This combination has been working and has fair win and place claims if priced 13/2 & less. 

12:10 Lingfield - St Michel (20/1 adv) (small ew bet) 4th lost 3rd on line