7:10 Kempton Racing Tips (8th August)

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7:10 Kempton - 

An EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes over 7f on standard to slow going. Eight two-year-olds take part. 

Summer Blossom has raced three times for Archie Watson. This Irish-bred daughter of Society Rock races in the familiar silks of Clipper Logistics. She ran well on debut at Chepstow when finishing third place, losing by just half a length. Starting 4/1, connections must have expected a bold show and she was given a pretty hard race suggesting she was fit and ready to roll. Second start, she was far from disgraced in fifth, in what has tuned out to be a fair race. Done little wrong last time out over course and distance, hitting the frame behind Fire Light and Shorter Skirt. A recent Lowther Stakes (Group 2) entries details a juvenile who is held in some regard by the stable. 

Roger Varian has been quiet this season. Certainly, the juveniles he has run have not achieved a great deal. Gleeful is a home bred daughter of Pivotal in the ownership of Cheveley Park Stud. Always worthy of respect. Interesting to see how this January foal fares in the betting. 

Another trainer who hasn't hit the heights with his juveniles this year is Hugo Palmer. Blonde Warrior is about the best of the lots. Interesting to see how Deira Surprise goes here on her third start. She cost 50,000 guineas when purchased at the yearling sales. Racing in the silks of Dr Ali Ridha, this chestnut daughter of Slade Power proved a surprise package when runner-up at odds of 40/1. Her followers were left scratching their head second start when she was beaten into fourth at odds of 4/11f. She was entered to run at Goodwood earlier this month (2nd August) when withdrawn with a vet's certificate.Interesting to note that Deira Surprise beat Summer Blossom on debut. Perhaps that second start was due to an issue.

Ralph Beckett fields a debutante called Sand Share. This British-bred daughter of Oasis Dream is well related in the ownership of K Abdullah. The stable can ready a newcomer and they often go well at Kempton. 

Paul Cole doesn't have the powerful string of old but he always finds a few two-year-old winners each season. Nguni is a British-bred daughter of Mount Nelson. Very few of Cole's debutantes win when priced over 8/1 although it can happen with their better prospects. Unless this home bred is seriously backed, I would take a watching brief. 

Sukalia, Mandy The One & Indian Sea are best watched. 

Conclusion: Not the easiest of races to assess. Summer Blossom is a consistent sort who looks the ideal type to put in an each-way double. Deira Surprise has something to prove after a nasty 4/11f shocker. She beat Summer Blossom on debut and could well do the same here unless that was something of a fluke. The 40/1 price tag may have indicated a surprise. Gleeful and Sand Share will need to be fit and ready to roll to upset a couple of fair juveniles. They both hail from stables who can win with debutantes. The betting should tell the story. Nguni is best watched unless very well backed. The others are unlikely to figure. 
     

2:00 Lingfield Racing Tips (20th Sept) BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 1m 1y on standard going.  Ten two-year-olds take part and a fascinating contest.

Hydroxide is a class horse trained by Hugo Palmer and by all accounts a winner without a penalty. Two narrow loses to talented rivals must give a bittersweet taste for connections V I Araci. This son of Lope De Vega cost 205,000G at the breeze-up sales. If this Irish-bred had won on debut, it is very likely we would have contested a pattern race by now and is likely to be heading in that direction. This odds-on shot has to take some beating although there are a few juveniles in opposition who may hold some claims, perhaps more at each-way selections in hope that the favourite comes second best once more.

Balashakh was fancied to go well on debut when finishing fourth at odds of 6/4. This bay colt is an American-bred son of Blame and cost 100,000G at the yearling sales. He will improve for that debut effort and from a statistical point of view has very good win and place claims. Beating the likes of Hydroxide seems a pretty stiff task but if touching each-way prices could well be  abet to nothing and hope this colt is much better than seen or the favourite has a taste for second place. Interesting. 

*Envisaging is another horse who may be capable of more. James Fanshawe is a talented trainer and the betting indicates this Irish bred son of Zoffany could have a fair level of ability. Ben MC Wong's two-year-old cost 110,000G at the yearling sales rising markedly from his price at foal [17,500E]. He was much too keen last time out at Goodwood. He wasn't helped by a small field and ten runners and a wide draw may force the hand of Queally to sit in behind and progress from there. A tongue tie is applied for the first time. At odds of 12/1, he isn't beyond going well and good have realistic each-way claims. 

Bocelli is a home bred from Mrs P Good. It would take a huge effort to win this race on debut although Simon Crisford has been in imperious with his debutantes this season. 

Conclusion: A race to enjoy. Hydroxide will start favourite and on form will take all the beating. He hasn't done anything wrong in defeat although there is always a worry when a horse is defeated that it will become the norm. If defeated, it will be due to a talented opponent rather than a balls up. Balashakh got going all too late on debut but I'd expect a marked improvement here and he could be a worthy each-way alternative. I would be surprised if this colt isn't placed at worst. Envisaging is another horse who didn't go himself justice at Goodwood. He was must too keen but traveled very for a long way. If drifting to huge odds on the exchanges is worth a small each-way bet. If the favourite drifted to even money I would be tempted to have a win on the jolly and half point each on Balashakh and Envisaging. 

* NR [Envisaging]