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7:10 Kempton -
An EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes over 7f on standard to slow going. Eight two-year-olds take part.
Summer Blossom has raced three times for Archie Watson. This Irish-bred daughter of Society Rock races in the familiar silks of Clipper Logistics. She ran well on debut at Chepstow when finishing third place, losing by just half a length. Starting 4/1, connections must have expected a bold show and she was given a pretty hard race suggesting she was fit and ready to roll. Second start, she was far from disgraced in fifth, in what has tuned out to be a fair race. Done little wrong last time out over course and distance, hitting the frame behind Fire Light and Shorter Skirt. A recent Lowther Stakes (Group 2) entries details a juvenile who is held in some regard by the stable.
Roger Varian has been quiet this season. Certainly, the juveniles he has run have not achieved a great deal. Gleeful is a home bred daughter of Pivotal in the ownership of Cheveley Park Stud. Always worthy of respect. Interesting to see how this January foal fares in the betting.
Another trainer who hasn't hit the heights with his juveniles this year is Hugo Palmer. Blonde Warrior is about the best of the lots. Interesting to see how Deira Surprise goes here on her third start. She cost 50,000 guineas when purchased at the yearling sales. Racing in the silks of Dr Ali Ridha, this chestnut daughter of Slade Power proved a surprise package when runner-up at odds of 40/1. Her followers were left scratching their head second start when she was beaten into fourth at odds of 4/11f. She was entered to run at Goodwood earlier this month (2nd August) when withdrawn with a vet's certificate.Interesting to note that Deira Surprise beat Summer Blossom on debut. Perhaps that second start was due to an issue.
Ralph Beckett fields a debutante called Sand Share. This British-bred daughter of Oasis Dream is well related in the ownership of K Abdullah. The stable can ready a newcomer and they often go well at Kempton.
Paul Cole doesn't have the powerful string of old but he always finds a few two-year-old winners each season. Nguni is a British-bred daughter of Mount Nelson. Very few of Cole's debutantes win when priced over 8/1 although it can happen with their better prospects. Unless this home bred is seriously backed, I would take a watching brief.
Sukalia, Mandy The One & Indian Sea are best watched.
Conclusion: Not the easiest of races to assess. Summer Blossom is a consistent sort who looks the ideal type to put in an each-way double. Deira Surprise has something to prove after a nasty 4/11f shocker. She beat Summer Blossom on debut and could well do the same here unless that was something of a fluke. The 40/1 price tag may have indicated a surprise. Gleeful and Sand Share will need to be fit and ready to roll to upset a couple of fair juveniles. They both hail from stables who can win with debutantes. The betting should tell the story. Nguni is best watched unless very well backed. The others are unlikely to figure.
An EBF Maiden Fillies Stakes over 5f 10y on good ground. Sixteen juveniles: ten raced, six debutantes and a mix of top-class trainers. By all accounts this looks a tricky event, especially with a number of the leading fancies being high drawn. It will be intriguing to see whether the majority favour the stands' rail, venture to the far rail or even split. All these variables are dependent on ground and should be considered with regard to price.
War Alert was sent off even money favourite when contesting a maiden here over 6f on debut. That was a fair contest. This daughter of War Front cost 270,000gns at the Tattersall's Guineas Breeze-Up Sales 2014. Trained by David Brown, for the Quatar Bloodstock Partnership, ridden by retained jockey, Jamie Spencer. This February foal is clearly held in some regard and holds an entry for the Lowther Stakes (Group 2). She is likely to be fancied to go well here although I would have some reservation about the drop back to this minimum trip. It could well be the case this bay filly will be slightly outpaced. I would rather take a watching brief as the trip looks sharp.
Artfilly wasn't disgraced on debut at Newmarket but improved a good deal when finishing second at Lingfield over 5f. Ed Walker does well with his two-year-olds and this daughter of Art Connoisseur is a compact, professional horse which should travel well and battle to the line. The form of that race has been franked, although the winner, trained by James Tate, won in good style. Another juvenile with a high draw (14). Should run a decent race and has claims unless there is a talent in the line-up.
Emirates Challenge was relatively fancied on debut but always on the back foot after an awkward start, then eased down in the last furlong when her chance had gone. Saeed Bin Suroor is a class trainer and this February foal is well bred out of a talented multiple-winning mare [Sand Vixen], placed in the Princess Margaret Stakes (Group 3) & victorious in the Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2). Juveniles are always deserving a second bite at the cherry and if fancied in the betting a much brighter performance should be seen on this second start.
There are a couple of juveniles which may have disappointed to some extent on debut but worthy of interest.
Carrot Top is a home bred filly in the ownership of Lady Whent who is no stranger to talented juveniles [Goldcrest won well for Henry Candy] and she is a loyal patron of Ralph Beckett. This daughter of Assertive made her debut over 6f at Goodwood, when starting 11/4 second favourite. This chestnut filly is a good-looking juvenile, deep chested with size and scope. It was clear she had sweated-up quite markedly and looked hot before the start and ran too keen over the first two furlongs, which done her no favours. Even with this negative, she held every chance until the final furlong and wasn't pressed by Dane O'Neill when their chance had gone. It is coming up to two months since that first start, which suggests there has been a problem along the way. This drop back to 5f shouldn't be a problem and I can see this filly improving on that first start and could be held in some regard by connections. A lower draw could be a good starting point if favouring the stands' rail.
Disprove hails from another trainer who knows his two-year-olds. Hugo Palmer has some good juveniles in his string and Disprove looks a bargain breeze-up purchase at £20,000. This daughter of Approve is out of a twice-place mare. This bay filly ran well over 6f in a competitive Newmarket maiden. She was too keen in the early stages but held every chance and only tired in the final furlong and still beaten under five lengths. It is always difficult to assess how a horse will fair when it drops down in distance because the pace of a five and six furlong race is markedly different. With showing abundant pace on debut you would have to consider the trainer knows best and Noel Garbutt takes off a handy 5lb. Another filly with a high draw.
Robin Hill has run well on both starts to date but may find this a stiff task although may sneak a place if this race falls apart.
*Crystal Wish has size and scope and wasn't disgraced last time out at Catterick although others make more appeal.
The betting is the best guide for the leading stable debutantes: Renaissant, Effectual, Star Fire, Candlelight & Some Show. All have claims if priced 13/2 & less.
Conclusion: A difficult but fascinating race to assess. There looks plenty of strength and depth for a run-off-the-mill maiden and those with experience could well set a fair level for the debutantes to chase. With the majority of the fancied runners featuring a high draw it will be interesting to see where the horses' race. The ground will most likely be a deciding factor and if the going turns soft a high draw would be an advantage. However, on better ground a lower draw could see one or two head straight for the rail. War Alert is likely to be fancied in the betting and this drop back to the minimum trip may not pose a problem. However, I would have slight concerns she could struggle for pace and this factor could be compounded from a high draw, especially if they race down the stands' side. With so many variables you really need a price to consider betting. Artfilly is a professional horse who will go well and probably the most proven in this field over the distance. Emirates Challenge is a well bred filly who fluffed her lines on debut. If fancied in teh betting she could well put that disappointment behind her and holds each way claims. Carrot Top is likely to improve a good deal for that first run and could be held in some regard by connections. May be worth a speculative punt if big odds are available early on the exchanges. Disprove is another who could go well if fancied in the betting. With a few debutantes from big stables this could be a difficult race to find the winner. I would take a watching brief unless you can have a speculative bet on Carrot Top. I would be looking for value at the very least.
*NR
A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 6f on standard going. Seven runners take part all three-year-olds bar Ishisoba who is four. Three colts take on the girls, all from talented trainers. Most have race experience although two debutantes will need to be primed to figure. Pool House has turned a few punter's hair a whiter shade of grey, beaten favourite on his last four starts, twice at odds-on, but conversely never far away. This son of Sahkee's Secret cost £22,000 at the yearling sales out of a French-raced mare. Andrew Balding's colt has been given a winter break and fitness must be taken on trust. However, the Kingsclere Park House Stable only have a small team for the All-Weather and this bay has never looked stuffy in his previous races. Probably the greatest sign that connections mean business is a drop in class. After running in EBF maidens this will be an easier proposition. Pool House is likely to be priced to chance but it will take a fair horse to beat him today.
Taquka has a similar profile although more auction standard than the above mentioned horse. This son of Kodiac must have been showing up well on the gallop, making his racecourse bow odds-on favourite. Inexperienced proved costly that day but this bay colt has suffered narrow losses when runner-up on his last three starts. The mare - Dubai Princess - was a classy type: a multiple winner, Listed-class placed and competed in the Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) at two. Taquka hasn't been seen for just under two-hundred days. This step up to 6f for the first time shouldn't be a problem and the stable must feel they can eke out a little more ability. The betting should tell the story with regard to fitness. The stable have a good win rate at this course and the main threat to the likely favourite.
One of the debutantes - Harboured - hails from Sir Mark Prescott's stable. This American-bred filly sired by Rockport Harbor looks to need much further than this sprint trip and has an engagement to run at Wolverhampton (Friday) over one mile. The stable's debutantes are often sent out needing the run and unless backed as though defeat is out of question is a horse I wouldn't entertain betting. She has claims if priced 13/2 & less but a horse I would lay if priced outside this betting guide.
*Red Primo is best watched unless well backed. The stable's debutantes usually need the run but can be superb bets if well punted.
John Hills has a poor win rate at this course although Joe Fanning has done well from a small sample of rides for the stable. Katja is out of a capable mare and is probably better than we have seen so far. A step up in distance may see further improvement and with an official rating of just 63 may be better placed in handicaps. It may be a negative that she was sent to the sales but withdrawn.
The home bred Why Not Now is not the easiest to assess. Unfancied but running with promise on debut, she showed little, if not disappointed, when relatively fancied at Lingfield last start over 7f. Breeding suggests this drop in distance may leave her struggling for pace. Joey Haynes has done well for the few rides with Roger Charlton.
Ishisoba has to carry an age penalty and yet to taste victory after seventeen starts. With an official rating of just 50 this daughter of Ishiguru may struggle with a couple of fair talents for this grade.
Conclusion: This looks to be out of Pool House and Taquka. The former trained by Andrew Balding will appreciate this drop in class and it would seem connections are intent on changing their luck in this grade. Harboured & Red Primo would have claims if priced 13/2 & less. This looks very unlikely. Katja, Ishisoba & Why Not Now need to improve. Pool House would get the nod but doesn't look much value unless drifting in the betting.
*NR
