Saturday, 30 November 2024

Putting In The Ground Work For Racing Success

Putting In The Ground Work For Racing Success
There are many varied approaches to making your betting profitable.

If you want to cover the full spectrum, you should incorporate a little bit of everything to give yourself an edge. Considering that most punters are lazy and don’t put much thought into their betting strategies, those who do invest time and effort have a better chance of finding the winning angle.

Personally, I rely on a combination of form analysis, significant entries, statistics (from The Racing Post), and my private database. This database provides detailed insights into every two-year-old trainer’s performance with juveniles during their first two starts, as well as what I call “global statistics,” which track horses beyond their initial runs. The process of gathering and analyzing this data is both educational and rewarding. I’m not referring to the surface-level information found in most publications. With some time and effort, you can uncover details that 99.9% of the horse racing community wouldn’t even dream of. That’s the type of edge we’re after.   

The process of gambling needs to be precise and disciplined. If your approach is even slightly flawed or inconsistent, you’ll inevitably face issues. This inconsistency can be a major problem. I speak from experience, as I’ve fallen victim to such lapses far too often this season. Without a rigid, well-defined system, you’ll pay the price. It’s almost as if the betting gods are watching, ready to teach you a lesson: “Stick to the plan, or suffer the consequences.” I’ve wondered if my own poor decisions stem from sheer stupidity—or perhaps brain damage—but it’s clear that mistakes have cost me dearly.

We all live and learn. Nothing stays the same, and as you gain experience, it’s crucial to future-proof your approach with genuine knowledge. Otherwise, you might wake up one day to find that your strategies are as outdated as a Blockbuster store in the age of streaming services.

For most, the starting point in any assessment is studying the form. This step should never be neglected or seen as a chore. If you don’t invest time in understanding both the race and the horses involved—an ongoing part of any betting routine—you’ll remain at a disadvantage. You must review a race as many times as necessary to fully understand each horse’s potential.

Recently, I’ve been dedicating more time to this process. It’s easy to dismiss horses that finish far down the field on debut, but that can lead to a lack of understanding. Not every horse that fails to impress on its first outing is a lost cause; many improve significantly in their second or third starts. Recognizing this potential is critical.

To streamline your approach, start by creating a shortlist of horses that catch your interest. This might include horses with proven form, promising entries in betting guides, significant entries, or other markers of potential.

Once you have a shortlist, it’s helpful to add these horses to a tracker. This allows you to monitor when they are entered in future races. With two-year-old horse racing especially, it’s vital to reassess your selections as new information becomes available and to analyze the race they’re entered in well in advance. If you wait until the last minute, you might find that your target horse has already been heavily backed, leaving you with diminished value.

If this happens frequently, it’s a clear sign that your process needs to change. You must be proactive, not reactive, in your betting strategy. Being part of someone else’s process for winning is a dangerous position to be in, as it leaves you at the mercy of their decisions.

There are significant advantages to being ahead of the curve. Having ample time to assess races and highlight horses of interest reduces the pressure to make snap decisions, which are often ill-advised. Many gamblers fall into this trap, and it’s one of the biggest obstacles to consistent success.

The key is to evaluate races and horses well in advance of their start time. You need to understand not only the potential of the horses on your shortlist but also the context of the race they’re entered in, including the strength of the opposition. This foresight is invaluable.

Most punters lack a structured process. If you’re one of the few who can make money without one, then perhaps you don’t need to listen to my advice. But for the majority, neglecting to establish a disciplined approach is a costly mistake.

Remember, the process is far more important than most people realize. Stick to it, refine it, and always be willing to learn.

Good luck.

Photo: JC 

In Search of the Outsider

Freepik

If there’s one thing that can truly elevate your gambling success, it’s finding value.

Value in betting comes in many shapes and forms. As Harry Findlay famously declared: “There’s plenty of value betting odds-on!” He was absolutely right. However, nothing in gambling remains static. Markets evolve, and what was once a treasure trove of value can quickly become barren. Odds-on bets, for example, became so heavily backed that they often turned into poor value—the complete opposite of their initial appeal.

For me, value often lies in speculative-priced selections—those big-priced opportunities that, when approached correctly, can offer exceptional returns.

But where exactly can you uncover these elusive high-value bets?

One of the first things to recognize when studying horse racing is that not all trainers are created equal. Some consistently excel at producing winners at speculative odds, while others rarely succeed in this space. This isn’t to say those who don't win at big odds can’t offer value—sometimes, knowing what to avoid is as valuable as knowing what to back. But certain trainers stand out for their ability to deliver big-priced winners and exceptional value.

This post builds on one I wrote years ago that was very well-received, generating thousands of page views. One of the trainers I highlighted back then was Michael Dods. At the time, his record with two-year-old debutantes was outstanding, particularly in terms of placing. Many of his runners placed at big odds, and blind betting on these produced excellent profits.

While his stats in recent years may not have been as remarkable, his past performance is a reminder of how profitable following the right trainers can be.

For gamblers chasing value, one of the best strategies is to focus on new or emerging trainers. Bookmakers often take time to adjust to their strengths, creating a window of opportunity. Not all new trainers will succeed—some will struggle to make an impact, offering little value—but that’s precisely why close observation is critical. By keeping an eye on trainer performance, you can identify those who show promise and seize opportunities before the market catches on.

When you spot a trainer with potential, stay vigilant. Follow them closely, analyze their strategies, and be ready to act when you see value. Remember, success in gambling often hinges on timing and insight—spotting value before it disappears is what separates the casual bettor from the sharp.

Photo: Freepik 

The Highs & Lows Of Terry Ramsden

A story written by Jason Bennetto, originally published in The Independent on Thursday, 7th May 1998, charting the highs and lows of Terry Ramsden. He was the archetypal Thatcherite success story. The son of a postal worker from Romford, Essex, he rose to become one of the country's richest men and most powerful racehorse owners. His millionaire lifestyle, built in the early 1980s on trading in Japanese bonds, included the obligatory executive jet, Rolls-Royces, homes around the world, and the ownership of a football club. His gambling record was the envy of every trackside punter - a regular winner both on the racecourse and at the bookies.

He was a true Eighties self-made man with his cockney vowels and shoulder-length hair. Yet Terry Ramsden, 46, looked anything but a high-flying, city whizz- kid yesterday as he stood in the dock at the Old Bailey. A bankrupt with debts of more than 100m pounds, he was jailed for 21 months for trying to conceal about £300,000 from his creditors.




Ramsden's roller-coaster career began in the City at the age of 16 as an insurance clerk. He quickly realised he could make more money by working for himself and set up his own business, making £25,000 in the first month. 


But the vehicle for Ramsden's career was a company in Edinburgh called Glen International which he bought in 1984, when it had a turnover of £18,000. By 1987, the figure had risen to 3.5billion and Ramsden was said to be the nation's 57th richest man. The venture was based on his knowledge of the specialised and volatile market in Japanese warrants. These were options to buy shares in Japanese companies. He gambled on a rising market and got it right.


After hitting the jackpot, he was quick to adopt a suitably flamboyant and high-flying lifestyle to go with the new-found wealth. Along with his Porsche, Ferraris and Rolls-Royces, he was interested in racehorses - lots of them. At one stage he owned 75.


One of his biggest successes on the racecourse was when his horse Not So Silly won the Ayr Gold Cup in 1987. Small of stature, but invariably accompanied by minder, he was a regular visitor to the winner's enclosure.


"I'm a stockbroker from Enfield. I've got long hair and I like a bet," he once said. He also owned a Georgian mansion on a luxury estate in Blackheath, south- east London, where he could relax in a swimming pool with hologram shark fins beamed on to the water, before flying by helicopter to Walsall Football Club, of which he was both owner and chairman. He lived with his wife, Lisa, and their son, Jake. They also had homes in Scotland, Bermuda and Portugal. 



But in 1986 the market and Ramsden's luck changed. The 1987 crash knocked hundreds of millions of pounds off the value of his securities. He started to run out of cash to keep the huge and complex portfolio of securities afloat and his marriage was on the rocks. Added to this, he was estimated to have lost 58m at the racetrack - there were even stories of him parting with 2m in a single day. Within a year, Glen International crashed, owing 98m, and he moved to the United States.

In September 1991, a warrant for his arrest was issued on fraud charges and he was detained in a jail in Los Angeles until his return to Britain in February 1992. 


The next month, Ramsden was declared bankrupt - with the Inland Revenue demanding 21.5m and other creditors bringing the total debt to near 100m. Ramsden escaped with a two-year suspended sentence in November 1993 after he pleaded guilty to offences of recklessly inducing fresh investment in his empire. 


As a bankrupt, Ramsden was required to disclose all his assets and income but failed to reveal the existence of a hidden trust and concealed his ownership of three million shares in the Silversword Corporation, a Canadian company in which he had a controlling interest. Thousands of pounds was paid from the trust fund to Ramsden's mother, Florence, a former cleaner, which she passed on to her son. He also failed to mention winnings of £77,000 in 1992, from an accumulator bet involving five horses and a dog.


Last year, the Serious Fraud Office announced that Ramsden was to be prosecuted for failing to disclose assets.


At his trial, Ramsden admitted failing to disclose about £300,000. It was also revealed that the fund had also helped pay for a house worth £323,800 for his wife and son.


Jailing Ramsden for 21 months, Judge Peter Beaumont QC also ordered him to pay £10,000 towards prosecution costs. He told Ramsden: "You broke the law and must now be punished." The judge said he would serve at least half the sentence in prison.


Ramsden, of Fulham, south-west London, pleaded guilty to three charges of breaching the Insolvency Act by failing to disclose all his assets. Anthony Arlidge QC, for the defence, said: "He was motivated by a desire to win back his wife and restart his family life. He accepts now that is no longer possible." He added: "He is a man of considerable talent, who for a long time was extremely successful. Rightly or wrongly, he felt his failure was not his fault but due to the misguided views of others."

Tuesday, 19 November 2024

Unbridled Passion: Five Reasons Starting Your Own Horse Racing Blog is a Brilliant Idea

Image by rawpixel.com on Freepik

Unbridled Passion: Five Reasons Starting Your Own Horse Racing Blog is a Brilliant Idea
Introduction:

If you love horse racing and you have a keen interest in writing then you may have found your calling. Why not start a horse racing blog? I had a similar thought with High Class Equine (this blog) over 10 years ago and it is still my passion. In fact, this website has made a substantial amount of money in its time. Here are my 5 reasons for starting your own horse racing blog.   

1) Share Your Passion:

Starting a horse racing blog allows you to channel your love for the sport into a creative outlet. Whether you're a seasoned punter, an avid follower of racing events, or a casual fan, a blog provides a platform to share your insights, experiences, and opinions. From discussing race predictions to recounting memorable moments, your blog becomes a digital haven for like-minded individuals who share your passion for the equine world.

2) Build a Community:

Horse racing has a vibrant and diverse community, and a blog can serve as a focal point for bringing enthusiasts together. Through engaging content, comment sections, and social media interaction, your blog can create a sense of community among horse racing aficionados. Encourage discussions, share tips, and foster connections among your readers, turning your blog into a hub where people come to share their thoughts and experiences related to the sport.

3) Develop Expertise:

Starting a horse racing blog provides an opportunity to delve deeper into the intricacies of the sport. Researching and writing about different aspects of horse racing, such as race analysis, horse pedigrees, jockey strategies, and track conditions, can contribute to your own knowledge and expertise. Over time, you may become a respected voice within the horse racing community, attracting a loyal following eager to benefit from your insights and analyses.

4) Monetize Your Passion:

Beyond the joy of sharing your passion, a horse racing blog can be a lucrative endeavor. As your blog gains traction and attracts a steady readership, there are various ways to monetize your content. Partnering with advertisers, affiliate marketing, and sponsored content are potential revenue streams. Additionally, offering premium content or creating merchandise related to your blog can generate income while allowing you to sustain and grow your platform.

5) Stay Updated and Connected:

Running a horse racing blog requires staying abreast of the latest industry news, race results, and emerging talents. This constant engagement with the sport ensures that you remain connected to the pulse of horse racing. Attending races, interviewing key figures in the industry, and participating in events can provide valuable content for your blog, keeping your readers informed and engaged. This continuous immersion in the world of horse racing not only benefits your blog but also enhances your personal connection with the sport.

Conclusion:

Embarking on the journey of starting your own horse racing blog is a brilliant idea for a myriad of reasons. It allows you to share your passion, build a community, develop expertise, monetize your content, and stay closely connected to the evolving world of horse racing. As you harness the power of digital media to express your love for the sport, your blog has the potential to become a vibrant space for enthusiasts to gather, discuss, and celebrate the thrill of horse racing.

Photo: Freepik 

Sunday, 17 November 2024

One Horse Trainer I Avoid Betting

I don't like to sound mean spirited. However, after following two-year-old horse racing for umpteen years I've come to the conclusion there are a few horse trainers who are either unlucky, lack any real ammunition or simply not very good at winning races. Whatever the reason, I would definitely stick a label on these following 5 horse trainers saying: 

'Do not touch!'

The other 4 will be detailed in the following weeks. 

Yes, I said it was a touch harsh. 

Tim Easterby

I don't know why, but Tim Easterby is one of those two-year-old trainers who simply makes hard work of everything. His debut runners have very little hope of winning. In fact, as soon as I see one of his horses running I consider they have next to no chance of winning and one less horse to think about. Even his juveniles on their second start are near hopeless. The stats back this point up as his strike rate for even fancied horses is poor. I can remember the good old days when he would send a decent horse to Ripon. Those days seem to have gone. I'm not being nasty, but you'll be doing yourself a favour by not betting on any. 

You may be critical of my rambling about the Yorkshire man. It's not personal (I want to see him win races). But look at the following facts from my personal database:

From a sample of almost 800 debut runners he has a 2% win rate. 

Strangely, 50% of his debut winners arrived in the month of April (not that it would do you any favours following that stat). 

From 124 debut runners priced 10/1 and less sp he had just 12 winners. And 8 of those were priced 9/2 and less. 

As stated, second time out stats are poor as hell. With over 100+ horses priced 13/2 and less sp having a 13% win rate. Truly dire.  

Sadly, Mick Easterby isn't much better either. Although he did have a two-year-old debut winner this season in Scatter Penny. 

Tuesday, 12 November 2024

How to Take Photos of Racehorses: A Guide to High-Quality Photography and Equipment

How to Take Photos of Racehorses: A Guide to High-Quality Photography and Equipment
I have no idea about photography, but I do enjoy taking photos of thoroughbred race horses at my local racecourses and add them to blog posts. I use my iPhone to take few photos I feel are ok but lacking in quality. The photo I use on this post was taken by me using the iPhone. Anyway, if you are interesting in being a professional photographer there is clearly a lot more to it than meets the eye.   

If you are interested in learning more from a consummate professional take a look at Kevin Pigney's website. I've never seen such clarity in others work.  

Capturing the power, speed, and elegance of racehorses in photographs is both an art and a challenge. Unlike still subjects, horses are fast-moving and unpredictable, requiring a skilled eye, proper timing, and the right equipment to do justice to their dynamism. In this guide, we’ll explore the essential tips and techniques for photographing racehorses, from choosing the best gear to mastering the settings and timing that will help you capture stunning shots.

1. Essential Photography Equipment for Racehorse Photography

Camera

A high-quality DSLR or mirrorless camera is essential for capturing fast-moving subjects like racehorses. Look for models with:

  • High Burst Rates: At least 8-10 frames per second (FPS) to capture a sequence of shots as the horse moves.
  • Fast Autofocus System: Advanced autofocus with tracking capabilities is crucial for maintaining focus on fast-moving horses.
  • Full-Frame Sensor: This provides better image quality, particularly in low-light situations, and gives more depth to your photos.

Lenses

A telephoto zoom lens is ideal for capturing racehorses from a distance while still achieving up-close detail. Popular choices for equine photography include:

  • 70-200mm or 100-400mm Lens: These lenses allow you to zoom in on the horse without being close to the action, which is especially useful at racetracks.
  • Wide Aperture: Choose lenses with apertures of f/2.8 or f/4 to allow enough light in and help isolate the horse from the background.
  • Image Stabilization (IS): Look for lenses with image stabilization to reduce motion blur, particularly when shooting handheld.

Accessories

  • Monopod or Tripod: A monopod is often more practical than a tripod at races as it provides support and flexibility for tracking fast movement.
  • Lens Hood: This will prevent lens flare from harsh outdoor lighting.
  • Extra Memory Cards and Batteries: Burst mode and high-resolution images can fill up storage quickly and drain your battery faster.

2. Understanding the Best Settings for Racehorse Photography

Using the right camera settings is key to capturing crisp, high-quality photos of fast-moving subjects. Here are the main settings to consider:

Shutter Speed

A fast shutter speed is essential to freeze motion and avoid blurry shots. Aim for:

  • 1/1000th of a Second or Faster: This is usually enough to capture galloping horses and the subtle details of movement, like the mane and tail flowing in the wind.
  • Adjust for Light Conditions: If light allows, go even faster, especially for shots with more intense action or close-ups.

Aperture

Using a wide aperture (f/2.8 to f/5.6) helps blur the background, which draws attention to the horse and creates a sense of motion.

  • Balancing Aperture with Depth of Field: A wider aperture will give a shallow depth of field, so use it wisely to keep the entire horse in focus, especially the head and legs.

ISO Settings

Race tracks may have variable lighting, especially on overcast days or in indoor arenas.

  • Set ISO Between 100-400 in Good Lighting: In bright conditions, a low ISO will help keep image noise minimal.
  • Increase ISO in Low Light: When the light is low, gradually increase ISO to maintain a fast shutter speed, but avoid going too high to prevent grainy images.

Focus Mode

Select Continuous Autofocus (AF-C) mode, which will continuously adjust the focus on the moving horse as you track it. Enable focus tracking if your camera has it, as this feature is specifically designed to maintain focus on moving subjects.

3. Composition and Timing Tips for Capturing Dynamic Shots

To capture the essence of horse racing, consider these composition and timing tips:

Choosing the Right Angle

  • Side Shots for Speed: Positioning yourself at a right angle to the horses as they run shows off their speed and motion. It’s best for capturing the stride of the horse and the intense action.
  • Front Shots for Power: Shooting from the front allows you to capture the horse head-on, which emphasizes the power and determination in the face of both horse and jockey.

Framing the Shot

  • Focus on Key Moments: Horses coming out of the starting gate, mid-race, and just before crossing the finish line are all action-packed moments that show intensity.
  • Leading Room: Give the horse some space to move into within the frame. This composition technique helps convey speed and motion by giving a sense of direction.

Background Considerations

A clean, uncluttered background is ideal to ensure the focus remains on the horse. Position yourself to avoid busy or distracting elements in the background, like fences or crowds.

Using Burst Mode for Action Shots

Set your camera to burst mode to capture multiple frames per second. This helps you capture the exact moment when the horse is in mid-stride, fully airborne, or in any pose that adds excitement to the shot.

4. Timing and Patience: The Key to Success

Photographing racehorses requires a blend of patience and timing. Observing and anticipating the horse's movement is key to catching the right moment:

  • Study the Track: Watch the races beforehand to understand the path horses will take. Some turns and straights offer better angles than others.
  • Anticipate Key Moments: Pre-focus on the point where you expect the horse to pass for a sharp shot.
  • Look for Emotion and Connection: Racehorses have expressive faces, and capturing a moment that shows determination, connection with the jockey, or a proud victory stance can add emotion to your shots.

5. Post-Processing Tips to Enhance Your Photos

Even the best photos can benefit from subtle editing to enhance colors, contrast, and sharpness. Programs like Adobe Lightroom or Photoshop offer tools to:

  • Increase Contrast and Vibrancy: These can make colors pop and add depth.
  • Sharpen the Details: A little sharpening can highlight the muscles and details of the horse.
  • Crop and Adjust Framing: Fine-tune your composition and remove distracting elements.

Final Thoughts

Photographing racehorses requires a blend of technical skill, patience, and an understanding of the unique energy of the racetrack. With the right equipment, settings, and techniques, you can capture images that showcase the beauty and power of these incredible animals. Whether you’re a professional photographer or an enthusiast, these tips can help you capture the thrill of the race in every frame.

Saturday, 9 November 2024

Stephen Little: From Bicycle to Bentley - The Story of a Legendary Bookmaker

Stephen Little is a name synonymous with British horse racing and betting. Known for his sharp mind, risk-taking abilities, and colorful personality, Little made his mark as a bookmaker during an era when punters craved excitement and competitive odds at the racetrack. His journey from humble beginnings to high-stakes success is a tale of ambition, resilience, and deep love for horse racing – a story he recounts in his fascinating memoir, From Bicycle to Bentley.

Early Days in Betting:

Little’s journey into the world of bookmaking began on a modest note. With limited resources and no family ties in the betting business, he started as an outsider. Little would cycle from one betting venue to another, carrying his betting paraphernalia, ready to take on clients and competitors with his sharp odds and keen sense of probability. These early experiences helped him build the foundation of his business and reputation, as he quickly became known for his shrewd calculations and knack for spotting valuable bets.

In an industry that often saw bookmakers operating from the comfort of plush office setups, Little’s approach was different. His bicycle symbolized his hands-on dedication to his craft, hustling to build a foothold in a highly competitive field. As his reputation grew, so did his clientele, and Little’s life of fast calculations, careful wagers, and odds-making soon began to pay off.

Building a Reputation as a Risk-Taker:

Stephen Little gained a reputation not only for offering competitive odds but also for taking on large, high-risk bets. He didn’t shy away from big-money wagers that other bookmakers might avoid, believing that his calculated risks would attract high-rolling punters and serious bettors to his operation. His confidence and courage drew attention, as he was often the bookmaker who wouldn’t balk at offering odds on even the riskiest of bets.

This fearless approach led Little to the top of the bookmaker world. By the height of his career, he had gone from cycling to betting venues to driving high-end cars, earning his place among the most recognized bookmakers in the UK. His success story inspired many aspiring bookmakers and bettors alike, as Little continued to demonstrate that it was possible to rise from humble beginnings through determination and calculated risks.

From Bicycle to Bentley: An Insight into the Bookmaker’s World:

In his memoir, From Bicycle to Bentley, Little gives readers a candid look at the highs and lows of his career. The book not only covers his personal journey but also delves into the world of horse racing and betting, providing insights into the mindset required to succeed as a bookmaker. He shares anecdotes of dealing with punters, taking on high-stakes bets, and outsmarting rival bookmakers, offering a glimpse into the strategic thinking that defined his success.

Little’s memoir is as much a history of British horse racing as it is a personal account of his life. He writes with a passion for the sport, describing the thrills, challenges, and sometimes unexpected turns of the bookmaker’s trade. For readers interested in the world of betting and horse racing, From Bicycle to Bentley offers a unique perspective from one of the industry’s most respected figures. In the next few days, I'm going to buy this book so will write a few articles about it. 


Legacy and Influence:

Stephen Little’s journey remains inspirational, as he climbed the ranks from humble beginnings to the height of bookmaking success. His memoir has not only captivated readers but also offered timeless lessons on resilience, risk-taking, and the value of hard work. From Bicycle to Bentley is a fitting tribute to the life and career of a true betting legend, whose influence on the world of bookmaking continues to be felt today.

Professional Tipsters: Are They Flogging a Dead Horse?

Back in the good, old days I used to give free tips for two-year-old horse racing. 

It was on this blog. 

I kind of enjoyed the experience at the time and had a few good people take an interest. 

It might sound big headed, but I have an exceptional knowledge of two-year-old horse racing. In fact, I consider myself the best in the country. Not to say that means I'm not interested in online cash casinos for a bit of timeout from the serious gambling and sit down with a cup of tea and put my feet up for half an hour. 

I don't say those words lightly, it's just a fact.

Although I don't have anything to prove and really couldn't give a thought if you think differently. 

It matters not.

I've never been someone who is interested in other gambler's talents. I'd rather rather visit this page and see how the other half live. There are plenty of good judges, unsung heroes, out there who just get on with doing their thing. They don't need the spotlight to shine down on them. These so-called horse racing ''influencers''. 

That's a joke term if I ever heard one. Most are better at marketing than betting with knowledge or success. 

I've seen quite a few "big shots" on YouTube, and it’s clear that most of them earn the bulk of their income from ads, affiliate deals, or selling courses and training sessions. Good luck to them—they work hard for their success, and I’m not here to criticize. But I do wonder if they’re fully aware of the path they’re taking. Not everything that glitters is gold.

It doesn’t bother me if someone else is successful or struggling; I’m focused on my own journey. That’s not to say I’m unsupportive—I'm here to encourage and help others. But to truly progress, each of us has to look inward, aiming to improve ourselves instead of seeing others as competition or worrying about their success.

Some people support others on platforms like Twitter, only to be ignored in return. To me, that lack of reciprocity says a lot. It might even hint at a deeper issue.

Many professional tipsters also supplement their income through related work, with some high-profile gamblers leaving the grind of betting behind to work as pundits or partner with media outlets. Each to their own, though it can feel like a bit of a sell-out move to cash in that way. But everyone has bills to pay, and honestly, if Racing TV offered me a spot, I might be tempted to join in and spout the usual clichés.

Not everyone needs fame or validation, and that includes me. Recognition is the last thing I need. I heard a Twitter tipster recently mention something about craving recognition, and my immediate reaction was, "Who cares?" The only person who needs constant approval is someone who hasn’t reached their destination yet. True confidence doesn’t need applause, praise, or any of that.

My dad used to say, "If I knew something really valuable, I’d keep it to myself and just smile." At the time, I thought he was being silly, but later on, I understood. Real insight is often best kept quiet, especially when it comes to betting. Trying to give horse racing tips is mostly a futile endeavor. A close friend of mine, Eric Arnold—who sadly passed away young—felt the same way. Betting successfully is about the right knowledge, timing, and circumstances, not just about picking a horse the night before.

Offering tips often feels pointless. If you’re genuinely successful, you should be able to make money betting yourself without selling tips. To me, that’s almost the definition of an unsuccessful gambler.

Now, I might throw out a tip now and then, especially if someone’s heading to the races and hasn’t got a clue. But if someone labels themselves as a professional tipster and offers a low-cost service, I can’t help but think, "What’s that all about?"

Photo: Free Pixabay  

Saturday, 26 October 2024

Ante-Post Betting on Horse Racing: A Guide

Ante-Post Betting on Horse Racing: A Guide
Ante-post betting on horse racing is a popular way for punters to wager on races well in advance of the event day. It offers the opportunity to secure better odds than would be available on the day of the race but comes with a unique set of risks and rewards. This article will explore what ante-post betting is, how it works, and some tips for making the most of this exciting form of wagering.

What is Ante-Post Betting?

Ante-post betting refers to placing a bet on a future event, typically weeks or even months before it takes place. In horse racing, this often involves betting on major races like the Grand National, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, or the Derby, long before the final field of runners is confirmed. Odds for these events are usually more favorable at the ante-post stage, as bookmakers are offering prices on horses with uncertainties surrounding their participation, form, or fitness. 

How Does Ante-Post Betting Work?

When you place an ante-post bet, you are betting on a horse to run in a specific race at the price quoted at the time of your wager. The key factor to remember is that ante-post bets are "all-in," meaning if your horse doesn’t run, you lose your stake—there is no refund for non-runners. This is the primary risk associated with this type of betting, as injuries, changes in the horse’s training schedule, or decisions from the owner or trainer can all lead to a horse being withdrawn from the race.

However, the potential reward comes in the form of more generous odds. Bookmakers often offer longer odds on horses at the ante-post stage compared to what they will be closer to race day. If you can predict a horse’s success months in advance, you might secure a substantial price that wouldn’t be available once the race approaches and the horse’s chances become clearer.

Key Tips for Ante-Post Betting:

Study the Form It’s essential to do your homework when it comes to ante-post betting. Follow the horse’s form, the trainer’s patterns, and any relevant trends in major races. Horses with solid form lines in key prep races often attract early money in the ante-post market. 

Look for Value:

One of the main attractions of ante-post betting is finding value in the odds. A horse that you believe will peak on the day of the race might be offered at a long price in advance, and this is where savvy punters can find an edge. 

Monitor Trainer and Jockey Comments:

Keep an eye on news reports, interviews, and quotes from trainers and jockeys. They may give hints about a horse’s intended target race, its condition, or its chances of lining up. While not always reliable, these insights can influence your betting decisions. 

Understand the Risks:

As mentioned earlier, one of the major risks of ante-post betting is that your horse may not run. Injuries, unsuitable conditions, or changes in plans can all result in a non-runner, and you’ll lose your stake. Be prepared to accept this risk before placing a bet.

Each-Way Betting:

Consider each-way ante-post bets, particularly for larger races with competitive fields. This gives you a chance to win part of your bet even if your horse doesn’t finish first but places in the top three or four, depending on the bookmaker’s terms. 

Conclusion:

Ante-post betting on horse racing can be a thrilling and potentially profitable way to engage with the sport, particularly if you’re willing to take on the associated risks. With careful research, patience, and a bit of luck, you can secure valuable odds well ahead of race day. However, as with any form of gambling, it’s essential to bet responsibly and only wager what you can afford to lose.

Photo: JC 

Monday, 14 October 2024

How Does a Bookmaker or Turf Accountant Balance their Book on a Race

How Does a Bookmaker or Turf Accountant Balance their Book on a Race
Bookmakers, also known as turf accountants, aim to balance their books on a race to minimize their risk and ensure a profit margin regardless of the race's outcome. The process involves adjusting the odds and the amount of money wagered on each possible outcome so that the bookmaker's liabilities are spread evenly. Here's how bookmakers achieve this balance:

Initial Odds Setting:

Bookmakers start by setting initial odds for each horse or participant in a race. These odds are determined based on a combination of factors, including the perceived abilities of the participants, historical performance, and public opinion.

Monitoring Betting Patterns:

Bookmakers closely monitor betting patterns as wagers are placed. If a significant amount of money is being placed on a particular participant, the bookmaker may adjust the odds for that participant to attract bets on other options...... 

Odds Adjustment:

Bookmakers adjust the odds dynamically as betting progresses. If a lot of money is being placed on one participant, the odds for that participant will be shortened to make it less attractive to bettors. Conversely, the odds for other participants will be lengthened to attract more bets. 

Spread of Liability:

The goal is to spread the bookmaker's liability across all possible outcomes. By adjusting the odds, the bookmaker aims to ensure that, regardless of the race's outcome, they will have taken in more money in total bets than they will have to pay out in winnings.

Balancing the Books:

A well-balanced book means that the bookmaker has laid off enough money on each possible outcome so that, regardless of the result, they make a profit. This is achieved by adjusting the odds and encouraging bets on the less popular options.

Risk Management:

Bookmakers employ risk management strategies to limit their exposure. This may involve limiting the maximum bet a customer can place or using technology and algorithms to detect and manage unusual betting patterns that may indicate insider information or manipulation....

Reacting to Late Bets:

As the race approaches and more information becomes available (e.g., late injuries, changes in track conditions), bookmakers may further adjust the odds to reflect the latest developments and to balance their books.

Building in a Margin:

Bookmakers also factor in a margin to ensure they make a profit. The odds offered by a bookmaker will typically be slightly less favorable than the true probabilities of the outcomes, ensuring the bookmaker makes money over the long run.

In essence, bookmakers use a combination of adjusting odds, monitoring betting patterns, and managing risk to ensure that they create a balanced book. This approach allows them to minimize their exposure to potential losses while maintaining a profitable business model.

Photo: J. Coote (2023) 

Friday, 4 October 2024

Betting Industry Expert: Who Is Matthew Trenhaile?

Who is Matthew Trenhaile?

I always love a good YouTube video and the betting industry offers a mix of individuals from those with true wisdom to chancers who really have little to offer as far a true insight and  intellect go.

Introducing Matthew Trenhaile, who was interviewed by Star Sports Bet TV in this four-part series and illuminating conversation. He really offers a great perspective compared to the conventional punter approach which can often feel quite limited. 

Part 1 - 

Trenhaile has 20-years experience within the betting industry. First starting within the spread betting sector, golf and rugby, before working in the city as a risk manager in currency markets. In addition, he worked for betting syndicate.

One of the most respected opinions in the betting industry. Trenhaile describes himself as a 'Betting Industry Nerd'. In this video he talks about working with Mustard Systems (a golf betting syndicate), spread betting, tissue pricing and appreciating information within the game.

 

Part 2 - 

Talks frankly about working in the city and a change of career based on personal reasons, how investors were placed in book A or B and hedging on the cheap. Insight regarding risk management with reference to boomakers and his thoughts on liabilities and closing accounts when a sharp punter bets.

 

Part 3 -

Matthew why a betting syndicate often starts with three opinions, what inside information can mean depending on the sport/market, and how to understand markets. Insight about how bookmakers assess punter performance and restricted accounts, and details how things are not always as they seem from winning punters keeping accounts to some punters being stopped after one winning bet.


Part 4 -

Here Trenhaile (Trent to his friends) details the sharp money on the exchanges, Commission Agents and ''dark pools''. Insight about his own betting, and how some betting on the exchanges get burned out. Makes reference to Harry Findlay in the good, old days finding value betting odds-on and how that has changed.


Comments include: 

Richard Walsh: ''Superb stuff, could listen to Matthew all day. Please tell him to come back doing podcasts.''

Lee Horton: ''This bloke definitely knows his stuff, well part from thinking Harry Findlay was a genius...lol. Really enjoyed it.''

M.F. Oi: ''This is content for anyone who likes gambling. Thanks for making all these videos.''

Jay Rocc: ''This is my favourite of all the people you've interviewed. Could listen to that chap for hours.''

Eric Campbell: ''Great interview. Superb knowledge.''

Steve Buxton: ''As sharp as a blade.''


Source: Star Sports 

Additional: Podcast 

Inside Betting | Listen Notes