Sunday 20 September 2015

3:40 Kempton Racing Tips (21st Sept) CASH OUT ON THE BETDAQ APP/EBF STALLIONS MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (Div II) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Fillies Stakes over 7f on standard to slow going. Fourteen two-year-olds take part. 

Gravity Flow was fancied on debut at Windsor when flashing home with spirit behind the well regarded Sunflower. trained by Andrew Balding. William Haggas' daughter of Exceed And Excel cost 165,000euros at the yearling sales and sure to appreciate this step up to 7f. She was one of five juveniles for this stable entered for the Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1), but three have been forfeited at the last stage, including Gravity Flow. That may have as much to do with this chestnut filly being better over a stiffer trip. A recent Stakes entry suggest connection expect a maiden win sooner rather than later. The statistics detail this beaten favourite will go well with decent win and place claims. The horse to beat. 

Peppering is potentially well drawn and likely to be fancied in the betting for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. This American bred filly doesn't hold any flashy Group entries. A stable who can go well but difficult to assess their debutantes. A horse I would rather watch.

Polymnia didn't show a great deal when making her debut at Salisbury on soft going. This filly cost 115,000gns at the yearling sales and could well be capable of better. Richard Hannon's charge was relatively fancied that day and been given at least three Stakes entries which suggests connections are expecting more. With a tissue price of 20/1 there may be money for this juvenile. Looks poor on form but no forlorn hope. 

Ralph Beckett does well at this course and Secret Sense is worth noting in the betting. This daughter of Shamardal is out of a winning mare, placed at Listed class. This family have featured a number of exceptionally expensive siblings/relatives including one sired by Galileo which sold for 3,600,000gns. Secret Sense held a Fillies Mile Group 1 entry but this wasn't updated at the forfeit stage. Still a juvenile to be respected with a 26% strike rate for two-year-olds at this course and positive points profit.     

Sir Michael Stoute fields Queen's Trust, who is owned by Cheveley Park Stud. The betting is key. If priced 13/2 & less should be considered with a live chance but if weak in the market best watched. Interesting she has been given a stakes entry, which is something of a rarity for the stable.   

Interesting to see how Thrilled performs for David Lanigan. I must admit I'm never confident about this stable as they seem so difficult to assess if not just point-blank poor. This daughter of Kodiac cost 460,000gns at the sales and held a number of Group entries although those races have either been concluded or forfeited. This bay filly was relatively fancied on debut over 6f. She was never competitive and connections will be hoping to see improvement over this extra furlong. Any horse can disappoint on debut or be in need of the run so it would be foolish to presume she is limited. So often people jump to conclusions and so often they are wrong.If drifting to fantastic odds on the exchanges may be worth a speculative bet. I'd have to take a watching brief. 

Dramatic Voice is a home bred although sent to the sales but withdrawn. Paul Cole does well at Kempton. the betting is key. If priced in double figures best watched. If fancied has sound each way claims. 

Late Show is well bred out of a Group 2 winner and Group 1 performer. Sir Mark Prescott has few two-year-olds fancied on debut and most progress with racing. However, if priced 13/2 & less SP would be interesting. A wide draw doesn't help. 

Conclusion: Probably a stiffer race than many will view at first sight. Gravity Flow sets the standard and will enjoy this 7f contest. Not great value but will take the beating. Polymnia is worth noting in the betting and may be worth a speculative punt if touching big odds. Could well be backed and better than seen on debut.Could show marked improvement. Secret Sense is very well bred and hails from a stable who go well here. A horse with each way claims. Queen's Trust. Dramatic Voice & Late Show need to be 8/1 & less to be considered at serious hopes. Best watched if weak in the betting. Thrilled cost a fortune at the sales but showed little on debut. That experience and a step up in distance should see her in a better light today. Perhaps, worth a speculative bet if drifting to ridiculous prices on the exchanges. Another horse who could be backed. Difficult to know what to expect but clearly connection hold some hope.