12:00 Lingfield Racing Tips (25th Nov) 32RED/IRISH STALLION FARMS EBF MAIDEN STAKES (Div I) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

Day 10 of The 30 Day Challenge.

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 1m 1y on Standard going. Nine colts take part, just over half with race experience. Always Welcome catches the eye. This American-bred son of Elusive Quality out of a Group 1 winning mare. George Strawbridge's chestnut colt ran well on debut if not a touch keen and short of room. The winner may have been a big price but looked a fair juvenile. John Gosden has been in outstanding form all season and this April foal will be primed to go well. The horse to beat but - in truth - very little meat on the bone. 

12:30 Lingfield - Division II

Quite an interesting race. Similar to the earlier division with nine two-year-olds, four lightly raced. A couple of fancied debutantes head the betting so it may give hope of value for one horse. Firstly, Godolphin field Brave Hero. This son of Poet's Cove out of a winning mare, who was twice Listed placed. He was purchased by John Fergusson Bloodstock for 75,000gns at the yearling sales. A plum draw and priced about even money [Tuesday evening] suggest a big run is expected. Once again, we have our eye on John Gosden's second time out, Palmerston. This bay colt, a son of Oasis Dream, was relatively fancied on debut but didn't show a great deal in fourth place eclipsed by Sir Michael Stoute's seven-length winner Estidraak. Lady Rothchild's home-bred is likely to improve for this step up to one mile. The betting is important and if priced 13/2 & less has sound each way claims. If particularly weak in the betting best to take a watching brief. 

4:15 Kempton -  A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f on Standard going. Just seven two-year-olds all with race experience bar one horse for Gay Kelleway. Fillies taking on the sole gelding. Fruit Salad was fancied by us last start and James Bethell's filly was a shade unlucky after finishing with gusto. These restricted race types don't make the strongest heats and this chestnut must have claims although I wonder if Fruit Salad might be slightly outpaced in the early stages and bigger odds in running but finish well.  

Bit Of A Lad is worth noting for David Brown. This gelding, a son of Lilbourne Lad, was quite well backed on debut at Southwell and trailing in 9th place doesn't really do him any justice. It didn't look the strongest of maiden but on grade this is a drop in class. This 16,000gns yearling purchase may well be a touch lazy or tricky as he wore blinkers on debut. However, he travelled well and only tired in the closing stages after being competitive. Also, running the far rail at Southwell may have been a disadvantage. Bit Of A Lad has a hood on today. A good draw may tempt connections to lead. Not the easiest of horses to assess but a gelding against the fairer sex is not a bad angle. The betting is key. If priced 13/2 & less I'd give this juvenile fair win and place claims. If very weak in the market I'd take a watching brief. 

5:45 Kempton -  An EBF Maiden Stakes over 6f. Twelve two-year-olds take part: nine colts and three fillies. I'll keep this short and sweet. John Gosden could have a good day on the juvenile front and The Commendatore has strong claims. This son of Starbangledbanner cost 105,000gns at the yearling sales in the ownership of Michael Tabor and Rachel Hood. Inexperience cost this horse on debut and better should be seen on this second start. A good-looking type but probably priced to chance at even money. 

12:30 Lingfield - Palmerston 9/2 3rd
4:15 Kempton  - Bit Of A Boy No bet

5:45 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (20th Nov) 32RED.COM MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES (Tapeta) (Div I) (CLASS 6) (2yo)

Day 9 of The 30 Day Challenge. 

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 7f 32y on standard going. Eleven two-year-olds take part: five colts, six fillies. Nine horses have experience ranging from lightly-raced juveniles to a couple of wisened campaigners. 

Not the easiest race to assess. 

Jamie Osborne is a talented trainer who knows the capabilities of his two-year-olds and looks to be getting the amunition to fire in a few winners, which hopefully will continue over the next seasons. In general, his debutents have a poor strike rate but he has defied the stats with a number of juveniles this season although most have been fancied in the betting. 

Turn On The Tears went close on her first start at Chelmsford when runner-up at odds of 33/1. This Irish-bred daughter of Cape Blanco is out of a twice-winning sprint mare. This chestnut filly cost $20,000 at the yearling sales. Racing in the silks of Danny Durkhan, a long-serving patron with Osborne, Turn On The Tears ran with promise on debut and this extra furlong shouldn't be an inconvenience. The Old Malthouse Stables tend to have their youngsters primed for their second start. The betting is important here. I would be looking for an each-way bet but need 4/1+ to take the plunge and if weak in the betting it would make me play it safe. If starting over 13/2 sp I would take a watching brief. If fancied have decent win and place claims. 

6:20 Wolverhampton - Mercifilly trained by Ed Walker. Worth noting in the betting and if the money comes has each-way claims. If 13/2 & less sp is worth a bet. If weak in the market is best watched.   

5:45 Wolverhampton - Turn On The Tears (each-way claims if 4/1+ but not over 13/2 sp)
6:20 Wolverhampton - Mercifilly - No bet

Turn On The Tears 9/2 1st

5:25 Kempton Racing Tips (18th Nov) 32RED CASINO/EBF STALLIONS MAIDEN STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (Div I) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

Day 8 of The 30 Day Challenge.

5:25 Kempton:

A Maiden Stakes over 7f on standard going. Ten two-year-olds take part: nine colts and one filly. Two horses have race experience. Manson is one of few juveniles for Domonic Ffrench Davis but a talent with an official rating of 85, which sets a decent standard for others to achieve. This son of Equiano has raced three times and relatively fancied on all starts. He raced in the Convivial at York and held an engagement for Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1). It is a slight concern this chestnut colt has been off course for 75 days. With a less fashionable stable, there is a chance he may drift in the betting.  Should take the beating but I would take a watching brief unless around 11/4. 

A mix of debutantes from trainers large and small. The betting will tell the story for most. 

Little Salamanca and Lord Huntingdon has fair win and place claims if priced 7/1 & less sp. 

Luca Cumani doesn't feature the best strike rate on debut although War Story has place claims if priced in single figures.  

The only filly in the field, Rouge Noir, is a 68,000gns yearling purchase and hails from Jeremy Noseda's yard. The stable have fair win and place claims with debutantes priced 13/2 & less sp. 

5:55 Kempton:  

John Gosden's debutante Amanaat looks to be the talking horse here and odds on to take this maiden. Hamdan Al Maktoun's colt cost 280,000gns at the yearling sales. It is worth noting that this son of Exceed And Excel was entered for the Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1), which gives confidence. 

Enreaching is interesting. James Fanshawe's bay gelding cost 130,000gns at the yearling sales and races in the familiar silks of Ben CM Wong. This son of Dutch Art ran with promise on debut, behind a couple of decent types, and is likely to progress from that initial start. Juveniles from Pegasus Stables often improve quite markedly on their second and that factor brings hope. If priced 13/2 & less sp there could well be value for an each-way bet especially if priced around 5/1+. If the favourite is heavily backed there could be a chance this horse is pushed beyond that price guide. This always brings a dilemma with regarding betting or not. Personally, I would bet if priced 13/2 & less and take a watching brief if weak in the market. 

Soofiah should be respected if fancied in the betting while Broadway Icon is another with a fighting chance if backed to single figures. 

6:25 Kempton:

A decent sized field and in some respects a tricky race to asses. It is a restricted race which favours horses with proven experience over debutantes.The major hope is Predilection trained by John Gosden for Khalid Abdullah. This son of First Defence ran well on debut behind runaway winner King Of Rooks. This bay colt hasn't been seen since May, which brings some concerns. He steps up to 1m. At the prices [2/1], there isn't much value but I have sound facts to consider this two-year-old has decent  win and place claims. I'd be surprised if he isn't placed at worst and if drifting in the betting to each way would be a bet.   

Gregarious was a talking horse on debut. Lucy Wadham doesn't have many two-year-old talents and this attractive grey colt had been racing against other trained juveniles to gain a measure of ability. This Irish-bred son of Big Bad Bob was backed from big prices and ran a sterling race losing by half a length at odds of 8/1. Today the price will be much shorter, but a bold show should be expected.

Hughie Morrison has done well with his two-year-olds this season, a few going well on debut which defies the norm. Van Dyke was relatively fancied over course and distance when finishing second. Another horse which has sound win and place claims if priced 13/2 & less sp. 

Every Chance is worth watching in the betting, as fancied in the betting on debut, owned and trained by Jamie Osborne. If seriously backed would figure in the reckoning. 

Wednesday's Tips:

5:55 Kempton - Enreaching each-way (must be 13/2 & less sp) 2nd
6:25 Kempton - Predilection 11/4 adv 1st

12:10 Lingfield Racing tips (17th Nov) 32RED/IRISH STALLION FARMS EBF MAIDEN STAKES (Div I) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

Day 7 of The 30 Day Challenge. Not had a chance to think too much about these two divisions so I will write my summary as I think aloud (should be interesting). 

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 1m 1y on Standard going. 

Eleven two-year-olds compete - nine colts and two fillies, eight with experience. Not the most straightforward of races with a number of leading lights making their debut. 

Afnaan is trained by Saeed Bin Suroor.  This homebred, sired by Raven's Pass, is out of a winning mare. The stable has a fantastic strike rate with their two-year-olds and this youngster has the prime draw. Bin Suroor can ready juveniles to shine on debut and the stable have been in tremendous form. Debutantes bring an equal measure of hope and concern - inexperience can be costly. On statistics, he holds strong claims.

Always Welcome tells a similar story, representing John Gosden. This American-bred son of Elusive Quality is out of a triple-winning French mare who was lightly raced and reached the pinnacle of her career when winning the Del Mar Oaks (USA) at Grade 1. This homebred races in the familiar silks of George Strawbridge. Clarehaven Stables have been in flying form with their two-year-olds and have decent win and place claims when priced 13/2 & less SP. They often prove even more sturdy when priced 5/2 & less, which is a significant guide in my book. A wide draw is a slight negative but over this distance no major concern.    

Jeremy Noseda fields the third of the noted debutants in the shape of Cap Canaille, a homebred for Sanford R Robertson. It is interesting  to note this brown colt was sent twice to the yearling sales but withdrawn. This America-bred son of Giant's Causeway is out of a mare who won on debut, victorious at Group 3 and raced predominantly at Group 1 but never quite cut the mustard [the best being beaten less than two lengths when fourth]. She had an official rating of 110. Noseda has fair win and place claims when priced 13/2 & less. 

On balance, there is little to pick between the three from a statistical point of view. I wouldn't like to pick between them although all have sound place claims.

An outsider who may be worth a second glance is St Michel trained by Sir Mark Prescott. This homebred son of Sea The Stars was fancied in the betting second start at Leicester although drifted markedly just before the off from 7/2 - 5/1. After showing good pace, he folded tamely in the final two furlongs and proved disappointing. The betting suggested a big performance was expected and it could be the case much better will be seen today. Clearly there are questions to be answered but at 14/1+ there might be a reason to have a small each-way bet and hope better is seen. Valuable experience gives an advantage over newcomers, but you are taking a gamble. If betting on the exchanges, I would look to lay at shorter odds if possible as an option to protect your stake. 

12:40 Lingfield - Baydar has good win and place claims. The price doesn't give much value. Kalkrand is trained by John Gosden for Godolphin. This combination has been working and has fair win and place claims if priced 13/2 & less. 

12:10 Lingfield - St Michel (20/1 adv) (small ew bet) 4th lost 3rd on line

6:45 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (15th Nov) 32RED IRISH EBF MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (Tapeta) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

Day 6 of the 30 Day Challenge. An impressive winner on Friday with John Gosden's Daily Bulletin powering home for a decisive victory. Not too much of interest for Saturday so I will plump for a more speculative wager. 

A Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f 216y on standard going. Unlucky for some, a field of thirteen, nine with race experience from a mix of trainers. 

James Bethell is a talented dual-purpose trainer who may have a small string of two-year-olds but knows what it takes to find a winner. Fruit Salad (love those sweets, and black jacks) is a chestnut daughter of Monsieur Bond out of a twice-races mare [Miss Apricot] who ran in the silks of Mrs Bethell, trained by her husband. This May foal was bred by connection adorning the silks of Claredon Thoroughbred Racing. This outfit owned talents such as Penhill and Rich Again. Fruit Salad was sent through the sales ring for just £3,000 but bought in, often used by trainers to gain a beneficial weight when racing at auction class. 

Considering Fruit Salad started her racing career at York when contesting a maiden race over five-and-a-half furlongs suggests she has more going for her than that paltry yearling sale's price. 

The ground was soft on that first start. The prize money fair for a race which, although looking nothing special, has been franked to some extent. The winner wasn't disgraced when stepping up to Listed class, the second a perennial  bridesmaid, while the third has won and others shown promise. Fruit Salad was a big price on debut although there was money for her and it caught the eye Bethell sent her to York. The stable has a couple of talented juveniles this season with Charinguita and Fast And Furious proving victorious, the former racing at Group class. The stable has a very poor strike rate on debut with their two-year-olds although they can go well when fancied in the betting [as seen with Charinguita] . However, they probably went to York with some hope. To be fair, this chestnut filly looked to hold every chance until fading in the final furlong but far from disgraced beaten three lengths in fifth.   

With just over a month on the sidelines, connections will have had plenty of time get her fit and ready. Bethell has few horses run at this course and Joe Fanning a slightly unusual jockey booking, riding infrequently for the stable and not at all this year. That point could be taken as a positive or negative. 

As with most two-year-olds, they are usually primed to run well on their second start, especially so if they are considered to merit a winning level of ability. That debut run showed promise and I would expect improvement. It wouldn't surprise me to see this filly backed and if starting at odds of 13/2 & less it would be an additional sign of confidence. Presently priced 11/1 with William Hill, I'd be tempted to have a small each-way bet and hope the money comes. Interesting. 

Fruit Salad 11/1 (adv) 2nd

6:50 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (13th Nov) 32RED.COM MAIDEN STAKES (Tapeta) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

Day 5 of the 30 Day Challenge. All horses are running well, hitting the frame, but could do with another winner or two. 

A Maiden Stakes over 1m 141y on standard going. Nine two-year-olds: seven colts and two fillies from a mix of trainers. The majority have race experience.

John Gosden has been in fine form this season, including the exceptional Shalaa. Daily Bulletin is a January foal sired by Medaglia d'Oro out of a Grade 1 mare. This American-bred colt cost $140,000 at the 2014 September Keeneland Sales. 

He ran over 7f on good to soft ground at Ascot in September when made favourite but slightly disappointing when beaten into fifth. That looked a fair race, especially compared with the majority of this field, and I would expect to see marked improvement for this extra distance and vital experience. 

Gosden has a good string of juveniles and Daily Bulletin has been showing up well on the gallops and held in some regard by connections. Clarehaven Stables have done well with a select list of horses racing in the Godolphin silks.   

The betting details this is a two-horse race. It could well be a blessing that Sir Michael Stoute's Across The Stars is a relatively short priced favourite. It would be bordering on madness to think Daily Bulletin will drift to an each-way price (ever the optimist). In fact, I would be tempted to take 9/4. 

If punters get stuck into the favourite there could be more value to come but it is difficult to assess the markets. The statistics suggest that at 9/4 this colt is priced to chance but definitely a horse of some reputation and worth a bet. Ideal type to stick in an each-way double if you have a fancy to go with it. 

12:50 Southwell Racing Tips (12th Nov) 32RED MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

Day 4 of the 30-Day Challenge. I've got a man cold so not feeling in a particularly humorous mood. Not bad win prize money for such a restricted race type: Maiden Auction Stakes over 7f on Standard going. Eleven two-year-olds take part, seven with experience. This doesn't look the most competitive of heats. Zio Gianni was noted by us last time out and unlucky not to win. This American-bred son of Lemon Drop Kid is a decent yearling buy at just $21,000. Jamie Osborne's bay colt has claims but once again there isn't much meat on the bone at 7/4. Must go well. 

6:10 Kempton Racing Tips (11th Nov) 32RED.COM MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STAKES (Div II) (CLASS 6) (2yo)

Day 3 of the 30-Day Challenge. The results have shown promise. 

A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 1m. Quite a restricted race type which gives prominence to form horses. 

A large field of thirteen runners: ten colts/geldings and three fillies. Eight of the field have experience and one horse catches the eye. Andrew Balding's horses have been in decent form and Charmy looks a live chance here although there is one stumbling block which I'm sure you eagle-eyed readers have noted. This bay filly is a daughter of Yeats out of an unraced mare. 

This homebred is related to Room Key, who wasn't without some ability for Eve Johnson-Houghton. 

Charmy made her debut at Newmarket over 7f in July, a race where the form has been franked on a number of occasions. This March foal was slow from the stall but threatened to win until tiring in the last furlong to finish fifth. 

By all accounts, this is a drop in class.  

It is worth noting that Balding gave this filly an entry for the Rockfel Stakes (Group 2), which suggests she is one of the stable's better two-year-olds. 

The downside is a wide draw in stall thirteen (hopefully not unlucky for some). It will be interesting to see which tactics are employed, but it would be no surprise to see Murphy [jockey] make a bold bid from the front. 

Over one mile, there should be plenty of time to find a position and run a big race. The early prices detail a 5/2 chance which, again, doesn't leave much meat on the bone. I would be hoping the draw helps Charmy drift to an each-way price (probably got my rose-tinted glasses on here). 

If betting on the exchanges, you may be able to achieve much bigger prices, especially if held up off the pace. 

Basically, Charmy should run a big race even with these concerns. 

7:10 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (10th Nov) 32RED CASINO MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (Div II) (Tapeta) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

Day two of the 30-Day Challenge. A jubilant start to proceedings with the lovely-looking Marylebone winning for Ed Walker on Monday. 

Firstly, I'm not as confident about today's selection but it should go well. 

A Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 7f 32y. Nine two-year-olds take part, five with experience. Andrew Balding fields Make Music for her third start. I backed this daughter of Acclamation last time out at decent odds. This bay filly, who was purchased by the trainer for 40,000euros at the yearling sales, looked to struggle for pace and I went from hoping for a place to being irritated that she didn't snatch victory, clawing back the leader in the closing stages to lose by less than one length. The key to her success today could well come from this step up in trip, which is sure to benefit. 

I'm pretty sure this March foal races in Andrew Balding's wife's colours so Kingsclere could be celebrating in every sense if lady luck shines. With odds around 11/4 I would prefer an each way price and bet but that looks unlikely to happen unless something is heavily backed. I'd be surprised if this filly is out of the first three. You may get bigger odds in running if you are betting on the exchanges.       


4:10 Kempton Racing Tips (9th Nov) BREEDERS SUPPORTING RACING EBF MAIDEN STAKES (Stallion-Restricted) (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 7f. Twelve two-year-olds: colts/geldings and the solitary filly, nine juveniles with race experience. The betting is of interest for one candidate here in pinpointing a fair each-way bet. Marylebone is a son of Shamardal out of a Listed winning mare going through the yearling sales at 80,000GNS. It is interesting why this youngster was sent to the sales as he is a home bred and still in the ownership of Chasemore Farm. This bay colt was relatively fancied on debut when finishing sixth-of-ten runners over 7f on good to soft ground at Leicester. This March foal was well backed that day from 10/1 returning 11/2 SP. Ed Walker is a talented trainer and that was a fair introduction leaving the impression there will be more to come on this second start. As mentioned, keep an eye on the betting, and if starting 13/2 & less would tempt me to have a few shekels on each way.  If weak in the market, I'd take a watching brief.  

Part of the 30-day challenge - where I write a post every day for one month. Should be interesting if there isn't a two-year-old horse race or nothing I fancy. Perhaps that's the challenge part.  

12:40 Doncaster Racing Tips (7th Nov) BETFRED MOBILE COCK O´THE NORTH EBF MAIDEN STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (Div II) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 6f on soft going. Nine two-year-olds take part: four fillies dishing it up to the colts, the majority of the field once raced. We are going to a bit of a long shot here with Alan Swinbanks' Dominannie at odds of 20/1. This bay filly, a daughter of Paco Boy, was a relatively cheap Breeze-up buy at just £14,000. She was withdrawn from the sales a month later so whether the vendor considered they could make a quick profit is a matter of opinion. She hasn't been seen since running over the minimum trip at Redcar in May when fifth of eight behind Halsall. In some respects, there seem one or two questions to answer. The plus side is that I have an angle why long term this type of bet pays its way. At huge odds, I'd have a small each-way bet.