Friday, 30 July 2010

6:25 Newmarket

An EBF maiden race over 6f on good ground.

Quite an interesting race with a mix of form horses and debutantes.

Brian Meehan's two-year-olds are in much better form now and Hero From Zero is a likely improver after starting a 50/1 outsider in a decent maiden at Windsor. This bay colt by Invincible Spirit ran well for much of that race before tiring in the final furlong and should strip a lot fitter today. An entrant for the Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2), a big run will be needed to have any hopes of competing at a higher level. A lively chance.

Ice Cool Bex is another colt of interest. The McBride stable are a professional outfit and know their horses. It bodes well that this son of Iceman ran at Newmarket on debut and significant that Fallon was booked early for this ride. A very cheap buy at 800gns, Ice Cool Bex is an attractive colt and wasn't pressed on debut to run a fair race against a few talented/experienced juveniles. McBride has a fair win and place rate with his fancied juveniles on their second start and should be respected if backed.

Another two-year-old with a similarly progressive profile is Proper Charlie trained by William Knight. Quite an expensive buy at 58,000gns as a yearling and half-brother to Bahia Breeze, this is a good-looking bay with size and scope for improvement. Relatively fancied for a tough Yarmouth maiden, this son of Cadeaux Genereux is dropping back a furlong today. Knight should have this two-year-old fit and ready for his second start and I would be surprised if this youngster doesn't win a race this season. On looks alone, this is a fair sort. If relatively fancied in the betting, a big run should be on the cards.

Of the debutantes, Janood has been supported on the exchanges. Costing 150,000gns, this son of Medicean comes from the in-form Saeed Bin Suroor - whose last 3 out of 4 debutantes have won. Godolphin's two-year-olds are never easy to assess on debut but they usually fire in a few winners this time of the year and there seems a good deal of confidence behind this runner.

Of the rest, Labarinto hails from Michael Stoute's stable. An entrant for the Champagne Stake (Group 2) and Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) this Adulla-owned two-year-old should be respected. It has been noticeable that many of the stable's youngsters have been improving for the run and the betting should be informative to the chances of this runner. Very few juveniles win over 13/2 on debut for this stable.

Not the easiest race to assess with a number pf progressive types who are likely to leave debut runs behind them. The betting will be informative to the respective chances of most. Hero To Zero comes from a stable that has finally hit form and should run a big race. If fancied in the betting Ice Cool Bex has strong place claims.

Other races:
2:25 Thirsk
4:00 Goodwood
4:35 Goodwood
5:30 Bath
6:45 Haydock
7:00 Newmarket
7:20 Haydock

Thursday, 29 July 2010

2:00 Nottingham

An EBF maiden fillies' race over 6f(15y).

Michael Jarvis can do no wrong with his juveniles - the majority winning on debut. Warm Breeze an 80,000gns buy and daughter of Oasis Dream is likely to go off a short priced favourite. A Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) entrant, along side many sales races, she is an interesting newcomer.

The main form opposition is Scantily Clad, trained by Ed McMahon and owned by John Fretwell. A relatively cheap purchase, this daughter of Acclamation was well backed on debut at Nottingham but faded after showing bright speed. Whether something was amiss that day or unfit is a matter for debate but this team do well with their youngsters and McMahon has strong place claims with his fancied runners on their second start. An each way alternative with the favourite still to prove its worth.

Other races:
4:35 Goodwood
6:30 Epsom
6:50 Musselburgh

Wednesday, 28 July 2010

4:35 Goodwood

A maiden fillies' race over 6f.

Not much form to go on here.

Royalorien ran well on debut when 2nd at Nottingham. This bay filly by Royal Applause was inexperienced that day and always struggling to go the pace but flew home at the finish and unlucky not to win. That looked a decent race and Knight should find more improvement and inexperience will be a plus. This is likely to be a more competitive race but that initial run will put Royalorien in a good position for another big run.

Brian Meehan' two-year-olds are in much better form and Brevity is fancied in the betting which is an encouraging sign. It is interesting that Dwyer was originally booked to ride Royalorien but may be obliged to take this mount. Meehan's juveniles generally come on for the run and he doesn't feature the greatest win rate on debut.

Ed Dunlop and Kieren Fallon have been a winning team this year with their two-year-olds and probably reason why Sharnberry has ben backed on the exchanges. This daughter of Shamardal cost 120,000gns as a yearling and one of the more likely debutantes. However, it is never easy to win on a race course bow.

Another debutante worth noting is the Hannon representative owned by Mrs J Wood who must be one of the luckiest owners going with a string of talented two-year-olds. This 110,000gns purchase should be respected and one for the short list.

Bet: 4:35 Goodwood - Royalorien 1PTEW (4/1) Unp
Comment: 'Never seemed to be travelling and hanging from the start. Little doubt Knight's two-year-old disappointed as she has ability but far from ideal.'

Other races:
2:00 Redcar
2:45 Goodwood
6:10 Leicester
6:55 Sandown
7:45 Leicester

Tuesday, 27 July 2010

5:05 Goodwood

A maiden race for colts and geldings over 6f with nearly £10,000 to the winner.

No outstanding form horse on show but a few with potential for better and one or two debutantes of interest.

Mark Johnston's two-year-olds have finally hit form and plenty of winners should come his way over the next few weeks. Golden Hinde ran well on debut, when beaten by the more experienced Next Edition at Redcar over 7f. An attractive bay colt by Red Ransom and 95,000gns yearling, this youngster is stepping down a furlong after showing fair speed on his initial start. With a Champagne Stakes (Group 2) entry it could be the case the stable fancy an improved performance today. Not the easiest of horses to asses, but fancied on the exchanges, and a gut feeling a big run will be forthcoming.

Pabusar is an interesting representative for Beckett, after being well backed for debut at Ffos Las at the end of May. Nothing much went right for him that day with getting unsettled in the stalls and a slow start - giving the impression everything was happening too quickly. A sturdy-looking gelding by Oasis Dream, it speaks well that connections are opting for a race at Goodwood for their next start and a more professional display will be seen today.

Richard Hannon had six horses entered to run in this race and of the raced Welsh Dancer is on a recovery mission after failing to show anything at Newbury last time over 7f, when there must have been something amiss. There was much to like about the way this son of Dubawi finished his race at Ascot on debut - running on well at the finish as if this 6f would be ideal. On that form, Welsh Dancer would come here with a favourites chance but the disappointment at Newbury leaves a question mark. Clearly it is encouraging that Hannon decides to take this race rather than an easier option and it would be a good sign if this juvenile was backed.

Straight Line has run creditably on all outings from 5 - 7 furlongs and deserves to win a small race. Although one of the main fancies in the betting, I think Jarvis' two-year-old will struggle to win.

Of the debutantes Big Issue looks set to go off favourite. A breeze-up purchase at £140,000, Hannon has a wealth of two-year-olds who could have gone for this. Many of their expensive buys are primed to run a big race on debut and in a maiden where those with experience have something to prove many a punter will be favouring Big Issue. The betting is usually the best guide to individual chances and any weakness near the off could be a negative. At a short price a juvenile I would rather watch than bet.

Macho's Magic is worth a mention as Nicholls has a pretty fair place rate on debut with his two-year-olds and at a price could sneak into the frame.

A difficult race to asses with a number of potential improvers. With nearly £10,000 to the winner it is likely there will be a couple of talented juveniles within this field and it doesn't look a straight forward contest. Golden Hinde looks the type to run well and it will be interesting to see if Welsh Dancer can return to form.

Other races:
2:00 Beverley
4:00 Goodwood
4:15 Beverley

Monday, 26 July 2010

3:15 Yarmouth

A large field for this restricted auction race over 7f(3y).

Bloodsweatandtears has a leading chance of making this a winning second start. William Knight holds this colt by Barathea in high regard illustrated by Champagne Stakes (Group 2) and Royal Lodge (Group 2) entries. Backed for a competitive maiden at Newmarket, this two-year-old has many positives and an attractive colt, too. He didn't have much luck in-running on debut - in a race that is working out very well - but showed enough to appeal for a race at auction level with hopes of progressing to pattern class if these lofty entries are realistic. Knight has a good record at this course with his juveniles and decent win and place claims with his fancied runners on their second start. Connections will be expecting a big run today. The only negative is that Bloodsweatandtears has to give a fair amount of weight away to a couple of the main protagonists today, however, he looks a potentially talented juvenile.

Alan Bailey has done well with his two-year-olds this season - the talented Amwell Pinot to name one - and Dazzling Valentine looks a determined filly. After needing the run on debut, this daughter of Oratorio had no luck at Chester from a wide draw but ran very well considering the problems she encountered that day. The most recent run at Kempton showed a willing attitude after running wide for much of that race. This compact filly, if not a little on the small side, will appreciate a handy weight, especially with Eaton claiming 7lb. Form lines suggest she has the beating of No Poppy and Zamina, through Danzigs Grandchild, although these two juveniles should be respected. It is difficult to equate how Dazzling Valentine compares to Bloodsweatandtears, who looks to be the class opposition. The weight difference with help and a determined attitude give each way claims.

No Poppy has been running respectable races, especially so with the blinkers which are removed today with stepping up to 7f for the first time. Easterby's filly is one of those horses that catches your eye as she always looks a shade unlucky, running on at the finish but never quite getting involved. This 7f should see her true running today and with a healthy weight concession she should have no excuses. The run at Catterick can be forgotten as the wide draw and running even wider throughout gave little hope that day. The performance at Redcar leaves me wondering if this scopey two-year-old will be a couple of lengths inferior to the likes of the above mentioned. Perhaps this extra furlong will bring about a transformation, as without the blinkers more holding up tactics may be employed and she could finish with some purpose.

Zamina, trained by Sylvester Kirk, is a difficult one to assess after a slow start at Newbury, when finishing just behind No Poppy. Whether this daughter of Hawk Wing was flattered that day is a matter of debate. On the other side of the coin, she made up a huge amount of ground and was running on well at the finish suggesting this extra furlong would suit. Kirk has a decent string of two-year-olds this season and should be respected although I would rather watch and learn a little more than bet at relatively short odds.

Piccarello, Titus Two and Algurayn have a similar level of form but need to improve. Piccarello's trainer - Mark Tompkins - does very well at Yarmouth and may sneak a place but others are preferred. At a price Algurayn has similar claims.

An interesting auction event and the winner will be a fair sort for this grade. Bloodsweatandtears will be the main focus of attention - an attractive colt and held in high regard by the stable. Dazzling Valentine is a battler and has a handy weight advantage so one to fear. At the odds on offer it could be best to take a watching brief.

Other races:
2:45 Yarmouth
3:30 Wolverhampton
5:00 Wolverhampton
6:10 Windsor
7:10 Windsor