4:10 Chelmsford Racing Tips (9th January)

A 5f Maiden Stakes.  

Eight three-year-olds+ take their chance. Not the easiest race to assess but a couple of horses which may well go close. 

Tom Clover is a very capable trainer and Rockett Man is a chestnut son of Equiano in the ownership of The Rogues Gallery who do well with their horses. He has run over 6f on two starts and shown ability. He looks a nice horse, who had good pace last time out, when leading until outpaced in the final furlong. There is always a chance when a horse drops down in distance, it will be outpaced. There is a big difference between running over five and six furlongs. To be fair, this doesn't look as tough a race as competed last time out and the booking of a 7lb apprentice gives additional hope of a bold show. A live chance.  

In ways, Stuart William's Tributo is similar. This son of Dragon Pulse was a £28,000 2yo breeze-up purchase who was well fancied on debut at Newcastle when starting 100/30. This April foal looked inexperienced and wasn't helped by an awkward start, but was always a touch niggled along and ridden as though trying. I would have slight concerns this drop back to 5f would be a problem, and unless showing much better pace, could be outpaced on this turning course. From a statistical point of view he holds very good place claims. Looks unlikely to drift to each way odds. On the win front, Tributo holds claims and the apprentice is no doubt another way to find advantage. Off course for 50-days, there may be plenty of improvement. Time will tell. 

One trainer who can send out a debut winner is Archie Watson. Supercontango is a son of Charm Spirit and £40,000 2yo breeze-up purchase. The betting is a very big indicator for this stable's debutantes and it is a worry he has drifted to the extreme. If priced over 5/1, I would take this a sign this youngster will struggle to win. However, if backed could well come into consideration. The reason, as always, why it is so difficult to give an opinion until close to the off. At the time of writing, there are a number of negatives. 

Anthony Carson doesn't have too many horses in training (talking from two-year-olds and this has just turned three). Needwood Blossom ran well on debut when a 66/1 shot and finished a creditable second over 7f. Dropping back to 5f was a step into the unknown when racing at Southwell eleven days ago. She was awkward from the stalls and always a touch outpaced against a couple of speedsters who had to shoulder win penalties. I'm pretty sure the stable fancied their chance that day and this daughter of Garswood was ridden with purpose and ran on in the closing stages to get third. There has been some money for this April foal. I wouldn't expect this filly to be up with the pace and her strength may be running to the line. 

The other four horses, a debutante and three horses making their second start, are priced as though they need to find improvement. 

Conclusion: A funny-looking race. The four major contestants look to hold a chance but all have questions to answer which isn't the ideal starting place for betting at shortish odds. I had concerns about Rockett Man dropping back to this minimum trip but compard to the others he could well have most on the back foot. A nice-looking colt who will run a race but whether you would want to jump in at 11/8f is another matter. Tributo has plenty of claims on the stats but I do feel he needs to improve on his debut effort, which could well happen. The stable do much better on their second start than debut, which gives some hope. I'd much rather this horse drift to the extreme and be an each-way bet than a straight win. Supercontango could well have claims if strongly fancied in the betting but looks very weak in the market and if over 5/1 I would look to the others to prevail. Needwood Blossom has experience and could run on at the line, which is often a strength for any racehorse. I can't help but think she will be outpaced and need the others to tire to take advantage. All in all, this looks a difficult race to assess. I would be looking to back Tributo each way, but that isn't going to happen. Also, for those betting make sure there isn't a non runner and two places for each-way backers, which could happen. 

A predictable watching brief. 

3:10 Lingfield Racing Tips (7th April) ORPHEUS CENTRE MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

A Median Auction Stakes over 5f 6y on standard going. A very restricted race type. This race was won last year by Cheerio Sweetie who showed good early form, made favourite for the Lily Agnes Conditions, before proving disappointing. 

Five two-year-olds take part: two colts and three fillies, a couple once-raced, which on the face of it looks limited form.

Lingfield Lass and Ojai finished fourth and fifth respectively behind Rah Rah [trained by Mark Johnston] and the form has been franked to some degree by Anwar who finished second on her subsequent start. 

Lingfield Lass is an Irish bred bay filly trained by John Best. A February foal, out of the poor sire Mullionmileanhour, who won a maiden race and was placed at Listed class. This horse didn't go through the sales and heralds from Best Breeding. Racing in the silks of Lingfield Park Owners Group, she made a satisfactory debut at odds of 16/1 when ridden by today's pilot Kieran Fox. This bay was given time to find her stride and ran on in the closing stages without threatening the lead. Experience is always a positive but improvement is needed. With such a small field betting guides may be conflicting although the stable's juveniles hold fair win and place claims when priced 5/1 & less on their second start. 

Ojai was one place behind Lingfield Lass and more fancied in the betting at odds of 8/1. This brown filly was quite an early foal [18th February] sired by Big Bad Bob out of a once-race mare. Sold at the yearling sales for 16,000EUR, bought-in by Anthony Stroud Bloodstock who bred this juvenile with J Hanley & T Stewart. Ojai comes from a decent family including half-sister Dream Date. A few of the siblings have sold for good money. Now racing in the silks of Wood Hall Stud Ltd. Dean Ivory is a handler who knows how to win. This juvenile wasn't best away on debut and crossed by one of its opponents which meant she was a few lengths adrift, although pushed to be half competitive, then ran wide on the bend. She looked inexperienced and physically a touch weak. In addition, she has a slightly pronounced action. Fillies come in all shapes and sizes and not the easiest to assess but she looked like time would see her well. Dean Ivory's juveniles can improve a good deal for their first run and if starting on terms looks a similar standard to John Best's horse. Harper Lodge Farm can win on their second start and a few have done so at big odds. However, on balance, I'd have to take a watching brief.

The debutantes look most likely to take this contest. The problem with such cheap buys [if not lesser-bred juveniles] is that they are unlikely to be world beaters. 

Ower Fly is a home bred son of Pastoral Pursuits out of a nine times winning handicap mare. This bay colt is drawn in stall one and hails from Richard Hannon's stable. It is difficult to access the likely standard of this horse although it wouldn't have to achieve a great deal to be competitive. Turning courses are never the easiest to handle for debutantes and a slow start or running wide on the bend are always a concern. One of the more likely contenders.

Mark Johnston has been in flying form with his early two-year-olds and could well come here with a firm grip of the form needed to prevail. This son of Fast Company is a home bred. Rogue's Gallery  is ridden by 3lb apprentice Michael J M Murphy. As I have said before, I find Johnston's debutantes difficult to assess: they are either easy winners or poor losers and I will stick with that appraisal. I'd have to take a watching brief although fearful especially if starting favourite.

Robert Eddery is a trainer who I rate although he doesn't have a very good strike rate with his debutantes even those quite fancied in the betting. Priory is a bay filly and daughter of Mullionmileanhour [who doesn't inspire as a sire] out of a once-raced mare. This April foal is owned by the trainer.

Conclusion: These restricted races are often akin to plating class and it wouldn't be a surprise to see some entered at that grade in the next few months. I would often favour form horses at this level but Lingfield Lass and Ojai didn't inspire confidence on their racecourse bow. It is a difficult one because they have valuable experience and likely to improve for the race and most importantly connections will be aiming to win. The betting guides are somewhat conflicting as such a small field doesn't help asses the market. John Best has a fair win and place rate at 5/1 & less, while Dean Ivory's juveniles can find huge improvement from first to second start. Their success depends on the ability of those making their formative steps. Rogue's Gallery and Ower Fly would have to be favoured to take this contest. The former is trained by Mark Johnston and if strongly fancied in the betting it could be significant with winning two-year-olds aplenty. I find this stable difficult to predict. Ower Fly has fair breeding for this level and is taking after the dam will be a wiry character. I would give this horse the edge if pressed but at the odds there will be better more confident bets to come. Priory hails from a stable who often like a gamble but their strike rate on debut is poor. I would have to watch this race rather than bet.