1:09 Wolverhampton -
Supaspecialawesome doesn't look much value. Abby's Dream has run three times which is a negative unless starting at the top of the market. Burke's Tilt At Windmills may be value as a high stat horse if 13/2 and less sp (they can win up to 8/1 but seem a touch hit and miss so I generally think half stake if that price). I would much rather the horse be 13/2 and less sp. It ran a fair race on debut without looking anything special but may improve for the run and stepping up to 7f. I would keep an eye on the betting and if over 13/2 class it as a weakness. If you are looking for a change of scene from horse racing betting then take a moment to see the best casinos online including real live stellar spins which are out of this world. Nothing better than checking out the latest slots and chancing your luck. I can't say I do very often but worth a go every so often.
2:09 Wolverhampton -
Sergeant Pep looks straightforward and could lead. Was half fancied on debut and ran well enough in second place. Has fair stats if 13/2 and less sp. Not giving much away at 6/4. Doesn't look value. Great State won well last time and this step up in trip should help. I don't really consider the implications of the win penalty, rather the standard of the horse, so looks a decent type who could go well. Again, no real value unless drifting in the betting but whatever you do you need to visit this site for the latest news. Macho Mania has run well on both starts and hasn't done much wrong, just beaten by a couple of fair horses (both significantly entered). Looks the type to be help up off the pace and run to the line, which is never bad news. Could be a close call between the top three in the betting as they all look to have something going for them. Midnightattheoasis went through the sales ring although a home bred from part owner Christopher Wright. This suggests they will be looking to take advantage of banded races at some point. Not a bad bred horse. Charles Hills has debut winners up to 25/1 and doesn't have the worst stats at bigger prices although very hit and miss. Never easy taking on experienced horse, especially on a turning track and best watched. My Delilah has been half fancied on both starts and my have a glimmer of hope. She isn't a bad looking horse and didn't help herself with a slow start and pulling hard on debut over 6f. She ran wide on the final bend but would have hit the frame it all had gone well. Settled better second start when fancied in the betting and, again, didn't do much wrong running to the line. Stepping up to 6f may see her a little keen, but hopefully not, and I wouldn't be surprised if they lead. The last race was slightly difficult to assess. Not the easiest horse to hold strong claims but at 16/1 is, perhaps, one of the few horses in the race with an element of value. However, whether she can beat the three favourites is another question.
Jason
Friday 11th August
A busy day so not much time to look too in depth.
1:50 Wolverhampton -
The three big guns in the betting and all held in high regard by their respective trainers. Mokaatil, Corinthia Knight & Moseeb have significant entries. Moseeb seems a touch temperamental and disappointed at Ripon last time. Mokaatil doesn't have to shoulder a win penalty which is a clear advantage. I can see a few punters fancying Corinthia Knight as a fair each-way bet if drifting a touch in the betting. A fascinating race.
6:35 Newmarket -
A big maiden. Plenty of horses with reputations. Wafy is worthy of note for Charlie Hills.
A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 5f 20y on standard going. A restricted race type which, in theory, shouldn't take too much winning.
Seven two-year-olds take part: all raced bar one debutante for Mark Brisbourne which is priced a 50/1 outsider.
Most of these two-year-olds have been given plenty of chances to win and a number have been placed if not runner-up. Connections will be hopeful. We can guarantee someone will be leaving a wintry racecourse with a seasonal Christmas glow.
The main focus of attention will be afforded to The Daley Express, trained by Ed McMahon and ridden by Dale Swift. This bay son of Elzaam is well bred out of a durable mare, Seraphina, who went close to winning a number of top-class races. It's interesting to note that McMahon recently purchased this colt for just £1,500. Considering this was a £30,000 yearling purchase it is slightly strange.
However, the price tag wasn't an issue on his first or second start which showed promise. The Daley Express has run over the minimum trip on each of his three starts to date. An outsider on debut at Leicester. He hinted ability.
To be fair, he was a very unlikely loser next start when backed at this course. Touching 1.01 on the exchanges in-running it took a flying finish from Rozy Boys, who was trailing at the back of the field until Pegasus came into view.
Racing over course and distance last time out, he was made 11/8f. In many ways, that looked a disappointing effort but time may tell he was beaten by two better horses. The winner, Cajmare, was very well backed for Tom Dascombe's stable, while the second, Her Terms, was an expensive yearling purchase [330,000G] who hasn't achieved what the price tag presumed.
However, that was a maiden race which varies considerably to these lesser race types which often get branded as maidens but in actual fact are often similar to plating class. This race isn't a seller in disguise although a number of horses here have official ratings less than 70 which suggests they are pretty moderate.
The Daley Express didn't have much luck last time out being hampered and then found trouble in running.
This race is a drop in class. From a low draw, I expect Swift [jockey] to take the race by the scruff of the neck and try to lead all the way.
If you are lucky, you may get even money. It isn't beyond the realms he will drift in the betting but, conversely, it wouldn't be a surprise to see an odds-on shot.
Definity the horse to beat. Whether you want to take a short price is a matter for debate.
A Maiden Stakes over 5f 20y on standard going. Quite an intriguing race from this ten-strong field.
Gary Moore doesn't have the biggest string of two-year-olds but a talented trainer. Rapid Ranger has been relatively fancied in the betting on both starts. This son of Kyllachy has been beaten eleven lengths on debut at Windsor but put in his place by two talented juveniles, especially the winner. This bay colt raced keenly last time out at Kempton when second to Mr. Black. That was a fair effort. From a low draw, he could lead and take some pegging back. Always a slight concern this January foal will be too keen and tire in the closing stages.
Kings Academy is owned and trained by Paul Cole. This son of Mayson cost £32,000 when purchased at the yearling sales. Interesting to note this chestnut colt started his racing career in Chantilly, France. He was fancied in the betting priced 9/2. Leading until the closing furlong. Perhaps the 6f was a stride too far. The prize money was a touch shy of £10,000. Cole wouldn't have sent this colt across the channel for a day out. Christophe Soumillon was booked to ride. I would keep an eye on the betting with this juvenile and if fancied has very good win claims. Strangely, past juveniles fitting this profile, which I can't go into, have very similar win and place claims suggesting they either win or unplaced.
Phillip McBride's runner, Supreme Power, is another juvenile that makes interests. This son of Power was a relatively cheap foal but this stable does well with their two-year-olds. He finished behind Rapid Ranger last time. A reason why today this February foal will be odds of 14/1. However, I bet on this horse last time out and fancied him to run well. A slow start didn't fill me with glee and then hampered in the straight put pay to any hope of winning. A wide draw doesn't inspire confidence and if starting slowly it will be an uphill struggle. On the positive front, I'm pretty sure the stable expected a big run that day and with the favourite seemingly holding this youngster, the price may hold some value.
Mr. Pocket is another runner fielded by Paul Cole. This son of Acclamation has been a difficult horse to follow and must bring bad memories for a few punters who have kept the faith. Certainly, the loss at 1/4f would have seen them crestfallen. With an official rating of 80 this bay colt has ability although you may need deep pockets and faith to continue betting on this horse.
Jason Ward started the season with some hope when Mont Cinq finished third in the Brocklesby Stakes. This bonny colt is still trying to gain that elusive first win. This bay colt has plenty of pace and nearly won at big odds last time out at Newcastle with inspired tactics. However, an official rating of just 70 [has been as low as 62] and seven defeats suggests something will beat him.
Conclusion: An intriguing race. Four horses have some hope. Mr. pocket may have claims although he does have the knack of being beaten which makes me wonder if he relishes a battle. Kings Academy is definitely worth a glance in the betting. If strong in the market he could be the better of the Cole pair. If priced over 7/1 I would suggest Mr. Pocket is the more fancied. If betting, I would go for a straight win because I get a feeling Kings Academy will either win or be unplaced. Rapid Ranger looks to have a great chance based on his last run and beating Supreme Power most punters will scratch McBride's juvenile in the process. Moore's juvenile has a lot of pace, good draw and has a decent chance but I wouldn't be so quick to ignore Supreme Power. McBride's charge was expected to go well that day. A slow start, hampered, just meant it wasn't his day. Clearly, he needs to start well and it is a concern to have such a wide draw. It does put me off a little because you really don't want to run wide or fail to get to the lead if that is what connections choose. I'm not even sure if he has the pace to sit handy. Interesting, horse who may go well at a price. Funny old race in ways with afew live chances.
Day 9 of The 30 Day Challenge.
A Maiden Auction Stakes over 7f 32y on standard going. Eleven two-year-olds take part: five colts, six fillies. Nine horses have experience ranging from lightly-raced juveniles to a couple of wisened campaigners.
Not the easiest race to assess.
Jamie Osborne is a talented trainer who knows the capabilities of his two-year-olds and looks to be getting the amunition to fire in a few winners, which hopefully will continue over the next seasons. In general, his debutents have a poor strike rate but he has defied the stats with a number of juveniles this season although most have been fancied in the betting.
Turn On The Tears went close on her first start at Chelmsford when runner-up at odds of 33/1. This Irish-bred daughter of Cape Blanco is out of a twice-winning sprint mare. This chestnut filly cost $20,000 at the yearling sales. Racing in the silks of Danny Durkhan, a long-serving patron with Osborne, Turn On The Tears ran with promise on debut and this extra furlong shouldn't be an inconvenience. The Old Malthouse Stables tend to have their youngsters primed for their second start. The betting is important here. I would be looking for an each-way bet but need 4/1+ to take the plunge and if weak in the betting it would make me play it safe. If starting over 13/2 sp I would take a watching brief. If fancied have decent win and place claims.
6:20 Wolverhampton - Mercifilly trained by Ed Walker. Worth noting in the betting and if the money comes has each-way claims. If 13/2 & less sp is worth a bet. If weak in the market is best watched.
5:45 Wolverhampton - Turn On The Tears (each-way claims if 4/1+ but not over 13/2 sp)
6:20 Wolverhampton - Mercifilly - No bet
Turn On The Tears 9/2 1st
Day 6 of the 30 Day Challenge. An impressive winner on Friday with John Gosden's Daily Bulletin powering home for a decisive victory. Not too much of interest for Saturday so I will plump for a more speculative wager.
A Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f 216y on standard going. Unlucky for some, a field of thirteen, nine with race experience from a mix of trainers.
James Bethell is a talented dual-purpose trainer who may have a small string of two-year-olds but knows what it takes to find a winner. Fruit Salad (love those sweets, and black jacks) is a chestnut daughter of Monsieur Bond out of a twice-races mare [Miss Apricot] who ran in the silks of Mrs Bethell, trained by her husband. This May foal was bred by connection adorning the silks of Claredon Thoroughbred Racing. This outfit owned talents such as Penhill and Rich Again. Fruit Salad was sent through the sales ring for just £3,000 but bought in, often used by trainers to gain a beneficial weight when racing at auction class.
Considering Fruit Salad started her racing career at York when contesting a maiden race over five-and-a-half furlongs suggests she has more going for her than that paltry yearling sale's price.
The ground was soft on that first start. The prize money fair for a race which, although looking nothing special, has been franked to some extent. The winner wasn't disgraced when stepping up to Listed class, the second a perennial bridesmaid, while the third has won and others shown promise. Fruit Salad was a big price on debut although there was money for her and it caught the eye Bethell sent her to York. The stable has a couple of talented juveniles this season with Charinguita and Fast And Furious proving victorious, the former racing at Group class. The stable has a very poor strike rate on debut with their two-year-olds although they can go well when fancied in the betting [as seen with Charinguita] . However, they probably went to York with some hope. To be fair, this chestnut filly looked to hold every chance until fading in the final furlong but far from disgraced beaten three lengths in fifth.
With just over a month on the sidelines, connections will have had plenty of time get her fit and ready. Bethell has few horses run at this course and Joe Fanning a slightly unusual jockey booking, riding infrequently for the stable and not at all this year. That point could be taken as a positive or negative.
As with most two-year-olds, they are usually primed to run well on their second start, especially so if they are considered to merit a winning level of ability. That debut run showed promise and I would expect improvement. It wouldn't surprise me to see this filly backed and if starting at odds of 13/2 & less it would be an additional sign of confidence. Presently priced 11/1 with William Hill, I'd be tempted to have a small each-way bet and hope the money comes. Interesting.
Fruit Salad 11/1 (adv) 2nd
Day 5 of the 30 Day Challenge. All horses are running well, hitting the frame, but could do with another winner or two.
A Maiden Stakes over 1m 141y on standard going. Nine two-year-olds: seven colts and two fillies from a mix of trainers. The majority have race experience.
John Gosden has been in fine form this season, including the exceptional Shalaa. Daily Bulletin is a January foal sired by Medaglia d'Oro out of a Grade 1 mare. This American-bred colt cost $140,000 at the 2014 September Keeneland Sales.
He ran over 7f on good to soft ground at Ascot in September when made favourite but slightly disappointing when beaten into fifth. That looked a fair race, especially compared with the majority of this field, and I would expect to see marked improvement for this extra distance and vital experience.
Gosden has a good string of juveniles and Daily Bulletin has been showing up well on the gallops and held in some regard by connections. Clarehaven Stables have done well with a select list of horses racing in the Godolphin silks.
The betting details this is a two-horse race. It could well be a blessing that Sir Michael Stoute's Across The Stars is a relatively short priced favourite. It would be bordering on madness to think Daily Bulletin will drift to an each-way price (ever the optimist). In fact, I would be tempted to take 9/4.
If punters get stuck into the favourite there could be more value to come but it is difficult to assess the markets. The statistics suggest that at 9/4 this colt is priced to chance but definitely a horse of some reputation and worth a bet. Ideal type to stick in an each-way double if you have a fancy to go with it.
An intriguing Maiden Auction Stakes for two-year-olds over 1m 141y. Quite a restricted race type which favours form horses. Six of the eleven juveniles have race experience. The betting suggests this is a three-horse race.
James Fanshawe's juveniles have been in cracking form of late with a debutante winner and impressive victor at Beverley on Thursday. Lord George caught my eye for a couple of reason - which I can't really detail - and I would have been fancying this son of Sir Percy to be a strong bet but the price has taken the sparkle off this grey colt. Saying that, this youngster has exceptional win and place claims from my info. I would guess he is priced to chance so anything over even money would, in theory, be value. If a major drifter that would be more interesting.
Charles Hills now trains *Zzoro who was formerly handled by Clive Brittain. Newmarket's finest is retiring and I imagine this is the reason for the change. This son of Manduro was a relatively cheap purchase at 24,000GNS. He may have been priced 50/1 on all three starts but he is a progressive colt who ran a sterling race last time out at Newmarket. This April foal touched much shorter odds in-running and this is a marked drop in class by race type. Brittain held this bay in some regard and if priced at each-way odds could well make a viable bet to the favourite, especially if that horse is backed to big odds on. I'd be surprised if Zzoro wasn't in the first three.
Another trainer who you don't associate with two-year-olds is Alan King. However, he has been in fine form and seen a couple of juvenile winners these last few weeks. This son of Intense Focus was weak in the market on debut at 25/1 but finished runner-up to the fair Theydon Grey. Invocation is a 20,000GNS Breeze-Up purchase who ran at auction class on debut at Chelmsford City over one mile.Could have fair each-way claims.
One outsider that may be worth a chance is Paul Eddery's Hepplewhite. There was money for this horse on debut at Windsor although started at big odds. This son of Rail Link didn't achieve a great deal when twelfth of fourteen. It is worth noting Eddery gave this colt a Group entry which looks misjudged but horses can disappoint on their first start and at incredible odds could have place claims.
Conclusion: The betting suggests this is out of the three major fancies and it is most likely correct. Lord George has strong claims but if very short odds may give some value elsewhere. However, I do think this colt will take some beating. I like Zzoro, who looks a sound each way bet and if drifting to decent odds is well worth a bet. Invocation has claims although less fancied to the two mentioned. Hepplewhite may be worth a speculative bet at huge odds.
Zzoro NR
An EBF Maiden Fillies Stakes over 5f 216y on Standard going. Thirteen two-year-olds take part. Nine raced, four making their debut. A couple of interesting fillies from William Haggas and one from Richard Fahey.
Unless there is something of a surprise this looks out of five horses, at most. The betting is the best guide to Sir Mark Prescott's Cline. This daughter of Pivotal out of a Listed placed mare, she was sent to the breeze-up sales but withdrawn. Very few of the debutantes from Heath House win when priced over 13/2 SP. If strong in the betting, it would be a sign of confidence. Unlikely, in my opinion, but time will tell.
Dismantle has claims but I prefer the trio of hopes.
Symposium, Field Of Stars & Amber Mystique are potentially smart juveniles. All are held in some regard by their respective trainers.
It's interesting if not puzzling why Haggas has entered his two charges considering *Field Of Stars holds an entry to run at Yarmouth on Tuesday. The ground at the seaside course is firm so perhaps that has led to this dilemma. This home bred daughter of Acclamation is out of a winning mare for owners Lael Stables [pictured]. This January foal was made favourite on debut at Nottingham over 5f on good to soft ground. She was very well backed from 4/1 - 7/4 but inexperience and most likely insufficient trip made this juvenile look laboured, plugging on in the closing stages, but never really competitive. This step up in distance and a substantial lay off could see a different horse. From a statistical point of view she is slightly favoured to win than her stablemate. However, Field Of Stars doesn't hold any significant Group entries which can be noted for the stable's additional hope.
Symposium caught the eye on debut. This daughter of Exceed And Excel cost 70,000GNS at the yearling sales and races in the silks of The Royal Ascot Racing Club. This chestnut filly is a good specimen. She was backed at Newbury but started at odds of 9/1 suggesting she held claims but likely to progress markedly from that initial start. The form of that race is respectable. It is encouraging she holds an entry for the Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1), one of five juveniles for Sommerville Lodge. As far as flashy entries go, she is not one of the major hopes but still a juvenile of interest.
Last but not least is Richard Fahey's Amber Mystique. This January foal, a daughter of Sakhee is out of a multiple-winning mare who wasn't quite Listed class. She ran well on debut, especially when considering such a tardy start which really put pay to her winning. Continental Lady made a pleasing start to here career, if not a touch disappointing when stepped up in class. What caught my eye is the fact she was one of just three horses the trainer entered for the Convivial Maiden Stakes at York. That is a significant pointer.
Conclusion: It is difficult to separate the three major hopes. I'm intrigued to see if both the Haggas juveniles race or whether there is a late non runner. As noted, Field Of stars holds the edge on stats but Symposium looks the part physically. If Field Of Stars drifted outside 13/2 betting guide it would be a negative in my humble opinion. Amber Mystique should improve a good deal. I would look for an each way bet from the second or third favourite because they should be placed and I'd cross my fingers for a win. If Field of Stars is particularly weak in the betting I'd take a watching brief with that horse. Intriguing race.
*Field Of Stars - NR - Taking the option to run at Yarmouth tomorrow. Makes sense.
A Maiden Auction Stakes over 7f 32y on standard going. Quite a restricted race type. Not enough time to write too much as I'm having a semi-bad hair day. Quite interested in Philip McBride's Aqua Libra. This daughter of Aqlaam is owned by the trainer and a decent purchase for 14,000gns. She wasn't fancied in the betting at Chelmsford City over 6f but ran on with spirit. McBride's two-year-olds often improve markedly for the run and a handler I watch out for with runners on their second start. This step up in distance will be of benefit and although there are a few progressive juveniles here but this bay should hold fair each way claims. If particularly weak in the betting beyond 14/1 I'd take a watching brief.
6:10 Wolverhampton - Quite a restricted maiden auction stakes over 5f 216y. Couple of interesting horses. Company Asset had shaped with promise on her first two starts but ran below standard when fourth at Newcastle over 6f. There was no mention of this in post race reviews but it looked to me as if the saddle slipped, which may explain such a display. There is a chance she has just regressed. The tissue price of 2/1 [Sporting Life] looks short. Would make more appeal if a price. P J McBride is a talented trainer and someone I take particular note with his two-year-olds on their second start. Squash ran well on debut at Newmarket over 6f behind Lady Macapa, White Witch & Bahaarah. This daughter of Pastoral Pursuits will be primed for this race and definitely the selection. If touching each-way prices [unlikely] I would be interested. Presently about 5/2- 11/4 on the exchanges. Definitely value at those odds and high place claims. A wide draw isn't ideal but over 6f Luke Morris should be able to find a decent position.
7:00 Windosr - A number of debutantes and not to much form on show bar Alizoom and High Speed. The former has a touch of ability although perhaps not the fastest juvenile and from a wide draw may be a touch outpaced before running on at the line. High Speed is something of an enigma - she hasn't helped herself. This daughter of Kodiac has ability but ruins her chance pulling and far too keen. Hills is dropping this bay filly back to the minimum trip and from a low draw could steal a lead. With Emerald Bay likely to be short odds - perhaps ring rusty - High Speed looks a fair bet if available at 5/1 or so. I would try to lay your bet at shorter odds in-running and then hope she holds on to her advantage.
7:30 Windsor - A big field - with one or two who catch the eye. Destroyer is held in some regard by William Muir and a lovely, big specimen of a colt. This son of Royal Applause most likely needed his debut but showed ability second start before being outclassed in the Coventry Stakes (Group 2). This is more his level and from a low draw has each way claims. Grizzly Bear is another good-looking colt. Just looked at his odds on Betfair and 40/1 seems huge. Could well be backed down. He was slightly outpaced on debut and appreciated the step up to 6f at Newmarket. That was a fair race but he didn't do himself any favours pulling in the early stages and finished a respectable seventh. A wide draw isn't ideal and I just wonder if connections will be more interested in taking the handicap route as seen with Black Granite last year for The ABC Partnership. Henry Candy is a class trainer and he has been in exceptional form with his juveniles this season - especially on their second start. Noble Peace ran well on debt at Goodwood, when losing in a photo finish. Looks a good each-way bet if prices allow.
Best tips:
6:10 Wolverhampton - Squash (very good win/place) 1st
7:30 Windsor - Noble Peace (very good win/place) Unp
7:00 Windsor - High Speed (must touch shorter odds in running) 2nd (Didn't touch shorter odds)
A Maiden Auction Stakes over 1m1f103y on Standard going. A small field of just six runners: three gelding against three fillies. It's interesting to see how Grey's Angel fairs on her second start with P J McBride. This grey daughter of Notnowcato out of a multiple-placed mare who enjoyed a trip was a cheap yearling purchase at just 4,000GNS. She was relatively fancied on debut but a slow start made life difficult and by all accounts she needed the race. McBride usually places his juveniles well on their second start and this April foal will appreciate stepping up in distance with talented apprentice Danny Brock in the saddle once more. It wouldn't be a surprise to see this horse backed and that would be a sign of confidence. It is a shame there are only two places for each-way backers but if well supported I would be hopeful Ian Pattle's charge can run well.
A 0-60 rated nursery handicap over 7f 32y on standard going. Twelve two-year-olds take part. P J McBride is a talented trainer who places his horses exceptionally well. Sky Steps has been knocking on the door but a costly loser for favourite backers starting 11/4 or less in his last four starts, although placed on three of those occasions. This chestnut gelding, a son of Strategic Prince out of a once-rate German mare, was fancied to go well last start but had to go round the houses when pushed wide which most likely cost him victory. The way Danny Brock rode this March foal suggested to me they didn't expect to lose because this youngster was given a number of strong slaps with the whip.Having gone up 2lb in the weights connections have opted for 7lb apprentice, Gary Mahon. I'm not convinced this step back up to 7f is ideal but I would imagine this horse will lead and try to keep out of trouble and hold on to any advantage in the home straight. This looks the type of horse that will be shorter odds in-running and that is the angle I would take if betting, laying your stake and hoping this juvenile hangs on in the closing stages for a profit. The tissue price looks about right and although no outstanding bet is the type of horse that will be expected to make a bold show.
A maiden auction stakes over 1m 141y on standard going. Nine two-year-olds take part in this restricted race type comprising: one colt, a solitary gelding and seven fillies. All juveniles are lightly race with a debutante from James Tate.
Burma Bridge, trained by Richard Hannon, has progressed with racing after clearly needing his debut run at Newbury when finishing last at odds of 66/1. This home bred son of Avonbridge showed marked improvement when placed on his second start, then suffered narrow head-bob loser at Brighton when slugging it out in the mud. This gelding is likely to set the pace and could well take some pegging back against what is predominantly a field of fillies.
Twice Certain showed promise on debut then disappointing second start at Leicester when relatively fancied in the betting. Ed Walker's daughter of Lawman finished second last time out at Lingfield when 20/1. In truth that was a poor race where the winner had something in hand.
Quest For Wonder, the debutante of the field, wouldn't need to be anything out of the ordinary to prevail against form horses which have official ratings in the low 70s at best. This bay filly by Makfi out of a winning mare cost 20,000gns at the yearling sales. It is never easy for a juvenile to win on debut but Tate is one of a few handlers who can hit the mark at the first time of asking.
The most experienced horse in the field sees Edge Of Heaven trying to make it sixth time lucky. In truth this daughter of Pastoral Pursuits has been consistently hitting the frame but never quite mastering the opposition. Johnny Portman has done well with his two-year-olds this season but with an official rating of just 65 (plating class) she may place once more but for victory others may need to fail.
Of the others Resolve was fancied on debut but showed little and less so next start. Unless substantially backed, best watched.
A number of horses are making their second start after showing little ability on debut: Space Sheriff, Missandei, Callendula & Rum Swizzel. The betting is the best guide. If priced 13/2 & less all fair win and place claims. However, the tissue betting suggests this is very unlikely.
Conclusion: A difficult race to assess. The form horses are limited although this race type doesn't set a high bar for success. Burma Bridge will most likely set the pace and say: ''Catch me if you can...'' The horse to beat. Twice Certain and Edge Of Heaven look to have their limitations but hold place claims. Quest For Wonder heralds from a stable which send out debut winners. If available at each way price may be worth a small bet but betting first time out can make a fool of the best trainers at times. I'd be tempted to have a small bet on Burma Bridge with a view to laying at shorter odds in-running. Hannon's gelding should set the pace and hope to hold that lead.
A Class 6 3yo 0-65 rated handicap over 5f 216y on standard going. A small field of six horses take part: two fillies take on less than a handful of geldings. By all accounts poor horses who - for the most part - have struggled to get their head in front.
Tim Pitt knows what it takes to train a winner and Emerald Breeze is likely to start a short price for this contest after winning comfortably over course and distance last time out. This bay filly, a daughter of Tagula, looked very well in with a lowly official rating of 46, although clearly mocking her counterparts in a 0-55 rated handicap. It really doesn't get much lower than that level. However, this youngster could well be many punter's idea of a handicap blot. Three runs with Charlie Hills at two saw this February foal show no sign of ability. Considering she is out of a multiple-winning mare and cost £28,000 at the yearling sales connection would have been expecting more. McKeever Bloodstock purchased her for £1,000 at the two-year-old Tattersalls Horses-in-Training Sale. That looks a superb buy. Raised 6lb for that tidy victory only time will tell if that was the worst race every seen! Or that Pitt will have a string of wins out of her before you can shout Cheltenham Festival. Certainly a horse to respect and a horse many will fancy to back a winner with BetBright.
Another horse to have been stable hopping is Rose Buck. This daughter of Acclamation is quite well related. Formerly with Paul Cole, Lee Carter, now Giles Bravery takes charge. This bay filly has been kept busy and although limited a determined horse. That can be worth a lot at this grade and it proved the case when she won at maiden level over 6f at Lingfield. I couldn't help smile, as she hadn't quite managed to win at handicap or plating class. It just shows that there is little competition at times. The day after that win she was sold at Tattersalls February Sale for 7,500gns. Lady luck was looking down on connections because they clearly timed that race with teh sales in mind - the win was a double bonus. Raised just 3lb for that victory, new owner Mrs K Austin could have a live chance. A rather unfurnished filly, she can sit handy and runs doggedly to the line. There is always a slight concern when a horse changes stables, and after a month off course, you have to put your trust in the trainer to have them fit and ready. If odds allow I'd fancy her to be in the first two.
El Duque drops back a furlong after showing some form of late. Bill Turner's charge has risen a few pounds over his last three races but shouldn't be far away.
Coiste Bodhar has gone close a few times and fairly weighed.
Under Approval and Soul Instinct are best watched.
Conclusion: A poor race and where recent form is a plus. As it happens, a few of these have been competing well and connections will be hopeful. Emerald Breeze could be thrown in at these weights and may cruise home. On the other side, you have to worry she won a hopeless race. If a short priced favourite I'd rather take a watching brief. It could be a day where the fairer sex show the boys a thing or two. Rose Buck is tough, for a girl! Make no mistake she has her limitations but you'd go some way to find a more determined soul. If each way odds are available she could prove a tough nut to crack.
Forest Edge is either held up or tracks the leaders. A model of consistency and can never be discounted but maybe a little bit better over 6f. I think the handicapper may have the measure of the horse at the shorter distance. Swiss Cross likes to track the leaders and won nicely last time out in a class 3 handicap but has never won in a class 2 on the all-weather. Addictive Dream is a horse that can lead or track the leaders. But I'm fairly sure it would do better on a slower surface and these might go too quick for him. Even Stevens either likes to lead or track the leaders but its recent times don't really put it into contention against these. Silken Express is either held up or tracking the leaders and comes out second on my figures and holds both Evens Stevens and Swiss Cross on recent form. Caspian Prince likes to lead but its times make me think it might struggle to win against today's opposition. It's the only horse with early pace drawn wide and could cause a few problems for those drawn inside his stall 11. Ubetterbegood is a hold up horse but has no form on the course but nothing says to me this will suit. Jiroft is held by Swiss Cross, so drops down the pecking order in my idea of the winner. Doctor Parkes usually tracks the leaders but it would be better running over a slower course. Lexis Hero is another that tracks the leaders and could make the frame and isn't badly housed in stall six. Muhdiq also tracks the leaders but on its recorded times doesn't look fast enough to be involved. DANGEROUS AGE is an improving four-year-old that likes to track the leaders. It has won nicely twice over course and distance and did well when only just beaten in a photo at Kempton. Not ideally housed, in the outside stall, but Caspian Prince - who likes to lead - is drawn in stall 11 and could cause a few problems for those on the inside of him as he tries to lead and I'm hoping Joe Fanning can follow that horse to get into a good early position.
SUMMARY the two horses that are known as front runners are drawn in stalls 3 and 11. Those housed between them may struggle for a clear run and I'm hopeful that Joe Fanning can follow Caspian Sea and the improving four-year-old can stay on to win. (E.R.I.C)
4:45 Wolverhampton - Dangerous Age 5/1 3rd
Ishetoo may find this a bit on the short side and he usually tracks the leaders. This gelding only comes out fifth on my ratings and likely to be outpaced. Louis Vee has tried to lead before but over six furlongs and I doubt if he's fast enough to lead over the minimum trip. Roy Brotherton's six-year-old comes out fourth on my ratings if you count his six furlong performance where it led. *Lord Buffhead tracked the leaders last time, just as he usually does, and got up to win. Top rated, this brown gelding could win easily. Speedyfix is a hold-up type, recording slow figures over course and distance. I think it may be better off running at Kempton or Lingfield. Flow Chart is another horse that has led but over six furlongs and may find this trip a bit on the short side. A top three rating suggests a place effort. Dear Ben may set the pace over five furlongs. It comes out second on my ratings so should run its race. If leading, looks the type to hold on for a place. Lady Rain has limited form and easily held by Ishetoo. Milton Bradley's mare needs to improve dramatically to win and best ignored. Busy Bimbo recorded a fast time, putting it second on ratings, over course and distance. That time was recorded before the track was re-laid, when times were much quicker. He also likes to track the leaders but doubt if he's good enough to win. Chateau Lola is a hold-up type but its times over course and distance are slow. Will struggle to even make the frame.
Summary: Dear Ben is the most likely leader and being second top rated has a fighting chance. However, if all goes to plan, Lord Buffhead has the ability to win. The favourite is Speedyfix. Granted, it was unlucky on its last visit to this course. But strictly on form is held by Ishetoo, which isn't even rated in my top four. It would be better on a faster course and a horse I would lay. (E.R.I.C.)
*NR (Another non runner)
5:00 Wolverhampton - this race could be a frantic affair, five of the six runners have been known to lead, the exception being Iffranesia. The others might take each other on and burn themselves out leaving the race to the only hold-up horse in the race. In addition, the selection holds the second favourite Sir Geoffrey on recent form.
5.30 Wolverhampton - thirteen runners but only two horses known to try and lead: Interchoice Star and Marmot Bay. But both are drawn fairly wide - stalls nine and ten - and I doubt if either is good enough to hold on for even a place. The race could become messy if those mentioned break well and head for the rails. It will need a horse that can sit handy to take advantage. Valdaw, drawn in stall six, could let the two leaders cut across him and then settle behind in a handy position and run on at the finish.
5.00 Wolverhampton - Iffranesia 2/1 1st
5.30 Wolverhampton - Valdaw 5/1 Unp
The early pace looks most likely to come from Marmot Bay. However, Red Shadow, Flow Chart and Novalist can lead but, conversely, sit off the pace if a natural front runner hits the gates. It's possible if Kirby's filly [Marmot Bay] goes clear she could well hit the frame. Novalist can sit behind the leaders from a favourable draw and finish strongly towards the line. This looks a decent win chance but at the odds it makes sense to place an each-way bet, (E.R.I.C.)
7:30 Wolverhampton - Novalist 9/1 ew 5th
1.30 Kempton - Jubilee Brig may prefer a longer trip and can either be held up or track the leaders. Pabusar might find this stretches his stamina. He will have to be held up to have even the slightest chance of winning. Belle Bayardo has got poor form at Kempton and is likely to track the leaders. Jambobo may need further and its form on the all-weather is poor. Dixie Gwalia is the likely leader but her times make it doubtful if she can win even with an uncontested lead. The only horse with a semblance of a decent time is Capone (NAP) and it could win easily. Either it needs to have an off day or another horse progress beyond all recognition for the selection not to win but there's never a certainty with horse racing. 2.00 Kempton - this race is split with 3 horses that are known to lead and three that will either chase the leaders or be held up. I think Welsh Sunrise, Time For Lambrini and Harvest Mist would have to improve greatly to win this race. The selection would be a good bet if he reproduces his Lingfield form here at Kempton. But I wouldn't be betting very heavily if at all on "what a horse may do". 5.40 Wolverhampton - on my speed figures most of the field can be discounted unless they improve greatly. The four on my list are Falasteen, Megaleka, Loyal Royal and Daneglow. I'm always wary when a horse can get an uncontested lead and Falasteen is the only known front runner in the field and I think it should be in the frame. Loyal Royal is a hold up horse and may be able to pick up the leader but Megaleka and Daneglow will also be staying on, so I would keep the stakes low. (E.R.I.C)
1.30 Kempton - Capone
2.00 Kempton - Clock Opera
5.40 Wolverhampton - Loyal Royal
