A Fillies' Conditions Stakes over 5f on firm going. Six two year olds take part: three raced, including two debut winners, and a trio on their race course bow . Interesting that the winners carry no penalty for winning at class 5, while those making their race course debutes have a three pound allowance. Both winners have been entered to run in the Lily Agnes (6th May), which they are unlikely to compete [although you can never quite tell with David Evans].
Last year this race was won by Tiggy Wiggy [pictured] on her second start after an effortless victory at Kempton on the first day of the 2014 Flat season. Her greatest achievement - from a string of wins - came when taking the Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1). Ultimately, crowned Cartier Champion Two-Year-Old Filly. An exceptional talent.
Great Page will start a short priced favourite after a stylish debut win at Windsor two weeks ago. This bay filly was made market leader that day and although it was seemingly a lowly race judge by class I could well turn out to be a fair juvenile contest. There were a number of nice physical specimens, which says something as fillies look good, bad and ugly. This Irish bred daughter of Roderic O'Connor ran well, held up just off the page, which was set by one of today's opposition, a good number too keen throughout the race. Middleham Park Racing will be holding their breath in hope she can emulate last year's victress. It is never wise to limit the talent of a winning thoroughbred. Great Page showed ample promise at Windsor and if aspiration of Royal Ascot are to be realised she will need to win well.
Hannon has a second representative, Illuminate, a debutante sired by Zoffany out of an unraced mare. She was purchased at the yearling sales by Peter & Ross Doyle Bloodstock for £95,000. This bay filly is in the ownership Denford Stud. Hannon has been known to pull a few aces from his sleeves when it comes to talented ''second strings'' turning up to spoil the party of favourite backers. It is unlikely to be the case today but if seriously backed take note.
John Bridger isn't known for training two year olds and those which could be termed as talented are very very few. Wait long enough and a good horse may come along, I can imagine connections hold those thoughts about Stormflower. This daughter of Arcano may have been a cheap yearling purchase at 4,200GNS. She looks a good purchase. A filly with size and scope to progress with racing, her Achilles' heal was her delight in pulling for the majority of the race. Make no mistake, this juvenile has ability and if learning to settle could make her presence felt. The betting will be skewed because Great Page gave his April foal a fair beating. In addition, being trained by what some would consider a ''less fashionable stable'' she could well be tagged as the outsider of the field. Stakes races can be competitive affairs - you can never quite tell who is eyeing-up the prize. If huge odds are available on the exchanges I'd be tempted to have a small bet and try and lay at considerably sorter odds in-running. Interesting.
David Evans is a shrewd trainer who knows the strength and weakness of his juveniles. Nag's Wag is an Irish bred daughter of Approve and purchased cheaply by the trainer at the yearling sales. This January foal wasn't fancied in the betting on debut at Bath but showed a professional attitude, always in front rank and battled to regain the lead in the closing stages. That was a very restricted race type which may hold the form down. The second that day - Rogue's Gallery - was second next start but it was a similarly race type, although the winner is fair. Once again, it is difficult to limit a winning horse. On balance, I would imagine Nag's Wag is set a fair test by the likely favourite.
Charlie Hills has sent out a couple of two year olds to date and it is interesting Komedy is starting her career at stakes class. It is probably a sign his daughter of Kodiac will be victorious this formative season. She is half-sister to Jane's Memory, trained by Rae Guest, who has been placed at Group 2. Komedy cost 70,000eur at the yearling sales. The betting is the best guide and if priced 13/2 & less has fair win and place claims.
Sixties Sue is trained by Mick Channon, who has been relatively quiet this early season. This daughter of Sixties Icon is out of a mare similarly trained and full sister to Scargill who wasn't the best talent but a gritty character winning twice at plating class. Sixties Sue cost 40,000gns at the yearling sales. The betting is the best guide. If priced over 8/1 I would take a watching brief.
Conclusion: A fascinating race. Stakes race can often seem predictably straight forward - other times an enigma. Great Page could well start 1/2f. She sets the standard and after a stylish debut could be earmarked for Roayl Ascot. She is a good-looking filly and with Tiggy Wiggy winning this race last punters will have a bee in their bonnet. The horse to beat but not one I would back at odds-on. Nag's Wag didn't win a great race on debut but win she did. On balance, I would consider she has something to prove but it pays to respect a winner. The debutantes are best watched, especially if priced outside 13/2 SP. Stormflower is one of those horses that excites and traumatises in equal measure when betting. John Bridger may have a horse with an element of ability but will she pull keenly as seen on debut? That wouldn't help her cause. She has pace and if stealing an easy lead could take some catching. If touching fancy odds on the exchanges she must be worth a small bet and try to lay your stake in-running and hope the wind is blowing in the right direction. Being beaten by Great Page predicts she could be over priced [contrast theory]. It would be a speculative punt at 20/1+.
An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f 10y on good going. Eight debutante two year olds take part: six colts and two fillies. A varied mix of horse trainers. Last year, this race was won by odds-on shot Magic Roundabout, trained by Richard Hannon, who proved to be a very disappointing horse thereafter.
Windsor is a popular hunting ground for Richard Hannon. Fit is one of two fillies in the line up - a daughter of Kodiac. The mare didn't race until three but won on her second start, trained by Hannon Snr. This bay filly is an early foal [20th January] and racing in the familiar silks of Mrs Julie Wood. She was purchased as a foal for 12,000eur. The stable have a 23% win rate with their juveniles here over the last five years [9 from 40]. Subsequently, their two year olds at this course are often priced to chance and, perhaps, not great value. It often takes a fair filly to beat the colts but a horse to give worthy consideration.
Mark Johnston has continued his flying start to the two year old campaign with Delizia who won on Saturday. Beaverbrook is a home bred colt from Darley. The mare won a couple of races over a trip. Kingsley House Stables are in the limelight and with an increased string of two year olds will be fancied in the betting. On breeding, this bay colt may appreciate 6f. I'd take a watching brief.
Rod Millman fields two colts: Concur is an Irish bred son of Approve out of an unraced mare.This April foal cost £24,000 at the yearling sales purchased by Geoffrey Howson and Rod Millman.
Handytalk is also Irish bred, a son of Lilbourne Lad out of an unraced mare. This bay colt cost £32,000 at the yearling sales. In general, Rod Millman has a poor strike rate with his debutantes with around 3 winners in 130 or so two year olds since 2007. However, two of those victories came in recent years with Master Carpenter (2013) & Bonnie Grey (2014). The former was a class horse, which can often defy the stats. The tissue price [Sporting Life] suggests they will be relatively fancied in the betting. I would have to take a watching brief because they usually improve for race experience.
Interesting to see Marcus Tregoning with an early juvenile. Port Gaverne is an American bred in the ownership of the trainer. This bay colt is a son of Lord Shanakil out of a poor mare who needed a trip. He cost 15,000eur at the yearling sales. This stable can win on debut when priced 14/1 & less. They feature fair place claims when priced at 13/2 & less although the win rate is poor. On balance, I'd take a watching brief.
Raj To Riches could well be a dark horse. David Evans is a canny old stick and this horse was one of two who were engaged to run in the Brocklesby Stakes [Silver Wings]. This chestnut colt, a son Iffraaj, cost 60,000euro as a foal.The trainer and jockey have decent statistics at this course. If priced 13/2 & less has fair win and place claims.
Zeeoneandonly looks to be second string for the trainer.
Arlecchino's Rock cost £21,000 when purchased at the yearling sales by Oliver St Lawrence Bloodstock. This chestnut colt is bred to need further and Mark Usher's juveniles are likely to need the run.
Conclusion: Interesting to see how the ground goes with regard to what could be a good or bad draw. An intriguing race. Richard Hannon does well here and even though Fit is a filly taking on colts she should be respected. It can be difficult to pick the wheat from the chaff but one for the shortlist. Beaverbrook hails from a stable who can do little wrong. I find Johnston's two year olds difficult to assess - the classic easy winner or poor loser. The breeding of this colt suggests he will be better over 6f+. I would take a watching brief. Concur, Handytalk and Port Gaverne come from stables who are better second start. It doesn't mean they cannot win but I wouldn't back them. Raj To Riches catches the eye and his entry for the Brocklesby Stakes may be a pointer to ability. This colt cost 60,000euros at the sales and entered to race at Newbury [Friday]. The trainer and jockey have fair win and place claims at this course and feature a decent strike rate when priced 13/2 & less. Evans always has a fair early horse but whether this is it only time will tell. I would have to consider Fit & Raj To Riches as most likely with the latter most intriguing, especially if backed.
An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f. Seven juveniles take part: five colts & two fillies, including three form horses who have shown promise. This is one of the better two-year-old maidens of the season and I'm sure a handful of trainers hoped this would be easy prey.
David Evans has been in fine form with his juveniles and Smugglers Gold's win at Lingfield [Friday] would have given the stable plenty of confidence. I have little doubt that Vodka Time is one of the stable's better juveniles. This bay son of Indian Haven was a 20,000euro purchase. Evans knows his horses and it could well be telling that they kept this youngster in their ownership. He was fancied to run a big race when competing in the Brocklesby on the first day of the Flat turf season. Mick's Yer Man, who won that race in style, has since made it two successes from two. In truth, a couple of other runners have not franked the form. However, they were so far behind they cannot be considered a fair measure. Physically, Vodka Time is a compact horse, balanced, and professional. He ran a sterling race, especially from a wide draw. Adam Kirby wasn't hard on him when Turner's winners sprouted wings. That was a sterling effort and a bold show should be expected.
That said, this could well be a tough race and there will be opposition.
Dovil's Duel finished fifth in the Brocklesby, a good few lengths behind the above mentioned. This son of Clodovil was a cheap yearling purchase at £5,000 but started favourite that day. This was Rod Millman's first Brocklesby runner since Phantom Whisper won the contest in 2005. There was a fair word for this April foal and I am convinced the stable expected more. He showed good pace before being outpaced in the final two furlongs. The stable often struggle to win on debut so it could well be prudent to give him a second chance. This yard have the knack of winning second time out and if their juveniles have ability this is the day they shine. I was lucky enough to have a chat with James Millman on Twitter and he said they have a good string of two-year-olds and the recent debut victory of Master Carpenter adds to those thoughts. On balance, most form readers will consider this bay colt has no chance against Vodka Time. However, his re-opposing could magnify his starting odds. It wouldn't surprise me to see a much-improved performance today and if you want a speculative punt this could go well.
It will be interesting to see how Richard Fahey's juveniles go this year because he has been quoted as saying they have bought a different type of horse, which often means they are more three-year-old types. Kevin Ryan had a similar transition, a few years back, which proved disappointing. Skye's The Limit, a son of Pastoral Pursuits, cost 32,000gns and definitely a two-year-old in the making. This youngster jumped in the deep end when competing at Stakes class on debut, when second to Brocklesby victor Mick's Yer Man. Make no mistake, that was a noteworthy performance. He was a tad slow from the stall but threw down a challenge in the final two furlongs. Once Turner's talent was pushed out, Skye's The Limit was eased in the final furlong. I like the look of this colt. He is a determined sort, professional, with a fluent stride. It will take a fair juvenile to beat him today.
The debutantes hail from influential two-year-old stables. However, they will have to be primed to win at the first time of asking. In addition, turning courses are much more difficult to win on debut and reason why experience is a big advantage.
It's good to see Mrs Fitri Hay having two-year-olds in training with Paul Cole after their falling out. Meritocracy cost 40,000gns at the yearling sales - which is pocket money for this owner. Cole has commented that their juveniles have just started galloping on grass and going well. The betting is the best guide for this early [January] foal, a son of Kheleyf. If priced 8/1 & less he would have fair win and place claims. However, he is weak on the exchanges [Friday]. The betting is key.
Montaigne is the first runner for Ralph Beckett who is a horse trainer I respect with his debutantes. This home bred is well related being a half-brother to Pabusar and half-sister to Fillionaire. Both competed at Group class. The mare won on debut when trained by Michael Jarvis, with narrow losses at Pattern grade. The stable have a good strike rate at this course and I can see this January foal winning this season. The type to go well on debut but it will take a smart horse to win on its racecourse bow.
Richard Hannon has failed to hit the winning target with his few two-year-old runners this season. No surprise - he will have plenty by the end of the season. Fig Roll is one of two fillies in the line-up. She is well bred being a daughter of Bahamian Bounty out of Cake who was similarly owned and trained. The mare won on her first two starts before narrowly losing at Royal Ascot in the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2). She won at Listed class and a narrow loser at Group class on a couple of occasions. Richard Hannon said:"We have been careful with the two-year-olds because of the cold weather, but we have Fig Roll going in the opener. She is home-bred by Des Anderson and is out of his fast racemare Cake, who won first time out on the all-weather herself (at Lingfield) and also won the Listed St Hugh's Stakes at Newbury and finished third in the Cornwallis at Ascot. Fig Roll is by Bahamian Bount so it is a speedy pedigree, and, though she is a filly taking on the colts, we hope that she will run well.''
The other filly is Rough Courte. This 15,000gns yearling purchase is trained by Mick Channon. This daughter of Clodovil is clearly ready to run with a number of engagements but a recent Selling entry doesn't inspire confidence and unless this is a red herring I would expect her to be outclassed.
Conclusion: This looks a competitive heat and one of the best maidens seen this season. The form horses set a decent standard and it would take a pretty smart debutante to lower their colours. It isn't beyond the realms but it would dampen my spirits. Fig Roll & Montaigne look to be the better debutantes. However, I would stick with the three raced. It is a tough call to pick between them although most people will ignore Dovil's Duel after his loss to Vodka Time. He may well be put in his place but Millman's juveniles can improve markedly on their second start so don't be surprised if he runs well. Vodka Time & Skye's The Limit will be winning this campaign and look natural two-year-olds. Both caught the eye on debut and it could be a battle. At the prices, I would rather take a watching brief and enjoy the contest. If Dovil's Duel drifted to huge odds he may be worth a speculative punt.
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Other 2yo races:
1:50 Doncaster
A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f. Ten two-year-olds take part: four colts/geldings against the fillies, three horses with form. This is a very restricted race type which is often on a par with plating class.
David Evans has started the season with his traditional wave of juvenile runners. He is akin to Jack Berry of old and if he had a string of 50 youngsters he would be a force to be reckoned.
Smugglers Gold had a forgetful debut over course and distance last month. This son of Majestic Missile was sent off favourite but you would have hardly believed it by his performance. This chestnut gelding was clueless on his racecourse bow and finished last. As detailed before, Evans had this youngster entered for the Brocklesby and that with being favourite gave encouragement the stable considered he had ability. That thought came to fruition when he led for most at Leicester when 22/1. Clearly the visor livened him up. It's interesting to see that the head gear has been removed here so his trainer must be convinced the penny has dropped. By all accounts he should have the speed to take advantage of the debutantes. It is never easy for newcomers to win on a turning course, which is much more difficult than a five-furlong straight. Smugglers Gold is probably no more than an average horse but he sets the standard. Care is needed at this time of year as the form is yet untested but he must have each way claims if prices allow.
Another form horse who may be worth a second glance is Brockholes Flyer. Brendan Powell isn't renowned as a two-year-old trainer but this horse was entered for the Brocklesby. He ran a so so race on debut but that was probably a fair contest for the grade, with Far Gaze winning well, while the fourth horse, Diamond Lady, had shown form. This son of Belmont has a wide draw which isn't ideal. However, he has valuable experience and may well sit handy. It is worth noting that these restricted races often include poor horses and why those with form are worthy of note. If drifting to speculative odds on the exchanges he could be worth a small win and place bet.
The other form horse, Nomathemba, hails from David Evans stable, who also field a debutante. This bay filly was slowly away and outpaced. More is needed and unless substantially backed best watched.
Of the debutantes Bonnie Wee Lassie was purchased by Peter & Ross Doyle for £9,000 at the yearling sales. She is a half-sister to Bonnie Charlie who was a class two-year-old when trained by Richard Hannon, going close at Group class. It would be a surprise if this daughter of Exceed And Excel achieved such dizzy heights. There is one thing you can guarantee, this early foal is bred to be a sprinter. Hannon has such a record with his juveniles that it would be folly to ignore one of their representatives at such a lowly grade. The betting is probably the best guide.
Stan Moore has been in flying form with his two-year-olds although his winners have come from horses on their second start. Kidmenot was a cheap purchase at £5,000. The stable do have debut winners but they do not have a very good strike rate. On breeding, this filly looks to need a stiffer test and it doesn't inspire confidence to see she has been entered to run at Selling grade. Best watched.
Robert Eddery is a talented horse trainer who can prime his juveniles to win on their racecourse bow. Red Oasis cost £11,000 and bred to be a sprinter. The dam was a determined multiple winner for Derek Shaw. A difficult horse to assess and unless well backed I would take a watching brief.
David Evans' debutante, *Under Your Thumb, is best watched unless substantially backed.
Weisse Girl has the application of the blinkers for her first start and is bred to need further. The stable have a poor strike rate with debutantes and I would look elsewhere unless well supported.
A similar comment can be made for Flying Kyte & *Notnow Penny.
Conclusion: Make no mistake this is a restricted race and a good few of these juveniles will be racing in plating class before too long. People often forget these races are not fully-blown maidens. They are far from such a grade with mix of talents. It doesn't mean good horses cannot win in such race types but it does limit the likelihood. Form counts for a lot in this grade and Smugglers Gold could be a much shorter price at the off if there is a major weakness in Bonnie Wee Lassie. Evans' youngster looks to have a great chance because this is a drop in class. His third at Leicester looks to give further hope. However, it must be noted that form is still untested. There is a gulf of difference between proven form and assuming. If touching an each way price he could be a fair bet. The most likely winner. Bonnie Wee Lassie was a cheap buy for a fairly well bred juvenile. It is difficult to assess Hannon's two-year-old. However, they can win on debut and the shorter the price the greater the chance. Brockholes Flyer may sneak a place and if available at huge odds could be worth a small each way bet. The stable don't inspire but that initial experience is a big factor. The other debutantes have to prove they have ability and unless substantially backed I would stick with the three named.
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*NR
A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f 20y. Quite a restricted race with eight runners, three raced, a couple showing form.
David Evans doesn't let the grass grow under his or his horses feet and that is especially true of his two-year-olds. His approach to the juvenile season is simple: to have his youngsters primed to run and for the majority of the string to have raced by June. Statistically, his winner will come within this period. Ty-Derlwyn Farm have two representatives for this contest.
Kodafine, a daughter of Kodiac out of a winning mare, could well start this race at prohibitive odds. This brown filly looks a canny yearling purchase at 10,000euros & part owned by the trainer. She ran a storming race on debut at Kempton and by all accounts was unlucky not to have won. A tardy start set a stiff task but this compact filly ran on with enthusiasm & given a considerate ride by her jockey. Another day that would have been a winning debut. In many ways that Kempton race was a strange affair because much of the field blew their chance due to inexperience. The second, Go Glamorous, has been hailed by Ron Harris as A Queen Mary (Group 2) horse, although her subsequent defeat by David Evans' Majestic Alexander may have crushed dreams of Royal Ascot. The third horse in that race has proven disappointing on a couple of starts. While Kodafine has many positives it is worth noting that it was probably no more than an average maiden.
Evans' fields a major opponents, Gin Time. This daughter of Kalanisi has breeding to enjoy a trip and quite an unusual horse as far as engagements are concerns because her trainer had this one entered to run at stakes class but opted to start in a selling stakes. This March foal finished second to Intense Feeling [trained by Evans who fielded the first three home] and ran a fine race. At points, this bay filly looked to have a winning chance and wasn't given a tough race by any standards. It is worth noting that many of these restricted auction races are no better than glorified selling contests so that race type shouldn't be viewed as a stumbling block.
Red Biba is the last of the form horses. She made her debut in the Brocklesby Stakes. This cheap yearling showed good pace for much of that contest but tired rapidly from the two furlong pole to finish second from last. The Brocklesby is often a significant entry but David Griffiths' youngster would need to improve significantly to figure here. Best watched.
The debutantes will need to be primed to win.
Stan Moore has been in good form with a couple of two-year-old winners this campaign. He fields a gelding named Aweebitowinker & bay filly, Vodka Chaser, who was an early foal.
The former is by first-season sire Winker Watson, a cheap yearling purchase at £1,500. Vodka Chaser was purchased by the trainer for £6,500. The stable have debut winners although they are often speculative prices and their more fancied runners have relatively poor win and place claims. The stable feature a much better win rate with juveniles on their second start.
Chester Racing Club have a had two juveniles race this season with Jo Hughes. *Countess Lupus is trained by Lisa Williamson. This daughter of Amadeus Wolf out of a winning mare, who was trained by Sir Henry Cecil. In fact the mare raced at Group level and placed at Listed class. To be fair, Williamson has struggled with limited juveniles in past years. Last year, she managed to train debut winner Time For Lambrini at 25/1. However, the stable do not inspire me and I would have to take a watching brief.
Another trainer who has few two-year-olds is Sharon Watt. She sticks in my mind because Bee Brave won at odds of 50/1 when making her two-year-old debut. The Bunny Catcher, a daughter of Jeremy, cost £10,000 and purchased by the trainer. With the stable featuring so few juveniles it is difficult to assess their general standard. I would have to take a watching brief.
One of the more likelier types is Chilly In Rio. William Muir is a superb trainer whose juveniles often slip under the radar. His achievements last year with Purr Along, who heads for the 1,000 Guineas, illustrate his expertise. This daughter of the late Verglas cost £10,000 as the sales. On balance the stable feature a much better strike rate with juveniles on their second start although they have a liking for the all weather. If well backed, it would give more confidence.
Conclusion: Kodafine looks the part and should improve a good deal on that first start. A wide draw isn't ideal but that initial experience should negate that factor. David Evans knows his juveniles and I'm pretty sure they expect this filly to win. Gin Time will be winning this season but may have to play second fiddle to the favourite. The debutantes have something to prove simply because most trainers struggle to win with horses making their racecourse bow. Chilly In Rio may have claims if substantially backed. Countess Lupus is quite well bred but the stable don't inspire. I'd be surprised if the Evans pair don't finish ahead of the crowd.
*NR
Other 2yo races:
2:20 Kempton
