Sunday 7 April 2013

4:10 Wolverhampton (8th April) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f 20y. Quite a restricted race with eight runners, three raced, a couple showing form.

David Evans doesn't let the grass grow under his or his horses feet and that is especially true of his two-year-olds. His approach to the juvenile season is simple: to have his youngsters primed to run and for the majority of the string to have raced by June. Statistically, his winner will come within this period. Ty-Derlwyn Farm have two representatives for this contest.

Kodafine, a daughter of Kodiac out of a winning mare, could well start this race at prohibitive odds. This brown filly looks a canny yearling purchase at 10,000euros & part owned by the trainer. She ran a storming race on debut at Kempton and by all accounts was unlucky not to have won. A tardy start set a stiff task but this compact filly ran on with enthusiasm &  given a considerate ride by her jockey. Another day that would have been a winning debut. In many ways that Kempton race was a strange affair because much of the field blew their chance due to inexperience. The second, Go Glamorous, has been hailed by Ron Harris as A Queen Mary (Group 2) horse, although her subsequent defeat by David Evans' Majestic Alexander may have crushed dreams of Royal Ascot. The third horse in that race has proven disappointing on a couple of starts. While Kodafine has many positives it is worth noting that it was probably no more than an average maiden.

Evans' fields a major opponents, Gin Time. This daughter of Kalanisi has breeding to enjoy a trip and quite an unusual horse as far as engagements are concerns because her trainer had this one entered to run  at stakes class but opted to start in a selling stakes. This March foal finished second to Intense Feeling [trained by Evans who fielded the first three home] and ran a fine race. At points, this bay filly looked to have a winning chance and wasn't given a tough race by any standards. It is worth noting that many of these restricted auction races are no better than glorified selling contests so that race type shouldn't be viewed as a stumbling block.

Red Biba is the last of the form horses. She made her debut in the Brocklesby Stakes. This cheap yearling showed good pace for much of that contest but tired rapidly from the two furlong pole to finish second from last. The Brocklesby is often a significant entry but David Griffiths' youngster would need to improve significantly to figure here. Best watched.

The debutantes will need to be primed to win.

Stan Moore has been in good form with a couple of two-year-old winners this campaign. He fields a gelding named Aweebitowinker & bay filly, Vodka Chaser, who was an early foal.

The former is by first-season sire Winker Watson, a cheap yearling purchase at £1,500. Vodka Chaser was purchased by the trainer for £6,500. The stable have debut winners although they are often speculative prices and their more fancied runners have relatively poor win and place claims. The stable feature a much better win rate with juveniles on their second start.   

Chester Racing Club have a had two juveniles race this season with Jo Hughes. *Countess Lupus is trained by Lisa Williamson. This daughter of Amadeus Wolf out of a winning mare, who was trained by Sir Henry Cecil. In fact the mare raced at Group level and placed at Listed class. To be fair, Williamson has struggled with limited juveniles in past years. Last year, she managed to train debut winner Time For Lambrini at 25/1. However, the stable do not inspire me and I would have to take a watching brief.

Another trainer who has few two-year-olds is Sharon Watt. She sticks in my mind because Bee Brave won at odds of 50/1 when making her two-year-old debut. The Bunny Catcher, a daughter of Jeremy, cost £10,000 and purchased by the trainer. With the stable featuring so few juveniles it is difficult to assess their general standard. I would have to take a watching brief.

One of the more likelier types is Chilly In Rio. William Muir is a superb trainer whose juveniles often slip under the radar. His achievements last year with Purr Along, who heads for the 1,000 Guineas, illustrate his expertise. This daughter of the late Verglas cost £10,000 as the sales. On balance the stable feature a much better strike rate with juveniles on their second start although they have a liking for the all weather. If well backed, it would give more confidence.

Conclusion: Kodafine looks the part and should improve a good deal on that first start. A wide draw isn't ideal but that initial experience should negate that factor. David Evans knows his juveniles and I'm pretty sure they expect this filly to win. Gin Time will be winning this season but may have to play second fiddle to the favourite. The debutantes have something to prove simply because most trainers struggle to win with horses making their racecourse bow. Chilly In Rio may have claims if substantially backed. Countess Lupus is quite well bred but the stable don't inspire. I'd be surprised if the Evans pair don't finish ahead of the crowd.


Other 2yo races:

2:20 Kempton