Sunday 12 April 2015

1:40 Windsor Racing Tips (13th April) BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f 10y on good going. Eight debutante two year olds take part: six colts and two fillies. A varied mix of horse trainers. Last year, this race was won by odds-on shot Magic Roundabout, trained by Richard Hannon, who proved to be a very disappointing horse thereafter. 

Windsor is a popular hunting ground for Richard Hannon. Fit is one of two fillies in the line up - a daughter of Kodiac. The mare didn't race until three but won on her second start, trained by Hannon Snr. This bay filly is an early foal [20th January] and racing in the familiar silks of Mrs Julie Wood. She was purchased as a foal for 12,000eur. The stable have a 23% win rate with their juveniles here over the last five years [9 from 40]. Subsequently, their two year olds at this course are often priced to chance and, perhaps, not great value. It often takes a fair filly to beat the colts but a horse to give worthy consideration.

Mark Johnston has continued his flying start to the two year old campaign with Delizia who won on Saturday. Beaverbrook is a home bred colt from Darley. The mare won a couple of races over a trip. Kingsley House Stables are in the limelight and with an increased string of two year olds will be fancied in the betting. On breeding, this bay colt may appreciate 6f. I'd take a watching brief.      

Rod Millman fields two colts: Concur is an Irish bred son of Approve out of an unraced mare.This April foal cost £24,000 at the yearling sales purchased by Geoffrey Howson and Rod Millman. 

Handytalk is also Irish bred, a son of Lilbourne Lad out of an unraced mare. This bay colt cost £32,000 at the yearling sales. In general, Rod Millman has a poor strike rate with his debutantes with around 3 winners in 130 or so two year olds since 2007. However, two of those victories came in recent years with Master Carpenter (2013) & Bonnie Grey (2014). The former was a class horse, which can often defy the stats. The tissue price [Sporting Life] suggests they will be relatively fancied in the betting. I would have to take a watching brief because they usually improve for race experience. 

Interesting to see Marcus Tregoning with an early juvenile. Port Gaverne is an American bred in the ownership of the trainer. This bay colt is a son of Lord Shanakil out of a poor mare who needed a trip. He cost 15,000eur at the yearling sales. This stable can win on debut when priced 14/1 & less. They feature fair place claims when priced at 13/2 & less although the win rate is poor. On balance, I'd take a watching brief. 

Raj To Riches could well be a dark horse. David Evans is a canny old stick and this horse was one of two who were engaged to run in the Brocklesby Stakes [Silver Wings]. This chestnut colt, a son Iffraaj, cost 60,000euro as a foal.The trainer and jockey have decent statistics at this course. If priced 13/2 & less has fair win and place claims.     

Zeeoneandonly looks to be second string for the trainer.                   

Arlecchino's Rock cost £21,000 when purchased at the yearling sales by Oliver St Lawrence Bloodstock. This chestnut colt is bred to need further and Mark Usher's juveniles are likely to need the run.  

Conclusion: Interesting to see how the ground goes with regard to what could be a good or bad draw. An intriguing race. Richard Hannon does well here and even though Fit is a filly taking on colts she should be respected. It can be difficult to pick the wheat from the chaff but one for the shortlist. Beaverbrook hails from a stable who can do little wrong. I find Johnston's two year olds difficult to assess - the classic easy winner or poor loser. The breeding of this colt suggests he will be better over 6f+. I would take a watching brief. Concur, Handytalk and Port Gaverne come from stables who are better second start. It doesn't mean they cannot win but I wouldn't back them. Raj To Riches catches the eye and his entry for the Brocklesby Stakes may be a pointer to ability. This colt cost 60,000euros at the sales and entered to race at Newbury [Friday]. The trainer and jockey have fair win and place claims at this course and feature a decent strike rate when priced 13/2 & less. Evans always has a fair early horse but whether this is it only time will tell. I would have to consider Fit & Raj To Riches as most likely with the latter most intriguing, especially if backed.