An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f 10y on good to firm going. An intriguing race with a few well-touted two-year-olds. Alkhor is a good-looking son of Exceed And Excell costing 230,000GNS at the yearling sales. He was very weak in the betting when making his debut at Goodwood, when second string to Hannon's favourite, which went on to win in good style. Al Shaqab Racing will be expecting more today and this horse will take all the beating. A recent Listed race entry indicates the regard this juvenile is held.
A few of those with race experience are worthy of consideration and could be interesting each way bets. If the favourite fluffs his lines you may get more than a place. Ron Harris doesn't train many talented two-year-olds but he does know how to win and connections clearly expected a bold show from Just Glamorous (NR) when making his debut at Chepstow. There was good money for this son of Arcano, who is a fair-looking juvenile. At 55,000eur he is no bargain buy and related to a horse the stable done well with in Glamorous Air. He showed good pace then tired in the closing stages beaten by Sahreej, who is a capable sort. Harris has this chestnut colt entered for the Windsor Castle (Listed) & Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) at Royal Ascot. They may be lofty entries but this horse doesn't lack for pace and if slightly in need of the race on debut could well blaze a trail.
Another colt who is all speed is Raj To Riches. David Evans' chestnut has been unlucky not to have tasted victory with a two narrow defeats in his first starts and performing to a standard in all his five runs to date. This drop back to the minimum trip should help but there is a concern that after so may hard races he may regress at some point. In addition, he is quite a small, lean, juvenile who will look the poor relation to some of these. An admirable horse - but one I would watch.
James Given has done well with his two-year-olds this season - in fact it must be his best string in many many years. He has a number of talented juveniles heading to Royal Ascot and must have a good line to Girls In A Bentley. This daughter of Acclamation cost £60,000 at the yearling sales and a decent-looking filly. The Cool Silk Partnership have done remarkably well with Givens this season and this horse showed exceptional pace on debut at Catterick before tiring out of contention. She actually touched short odds in running, travelling well. The finishing position makes this February foal look much worse than she is and priced at 25/1+ could well be backed. If in need of the run on debut she would have good each way claims at those odds.
Stormflower has been something of a thorn in my side this season but John Bridger's filly has a lot of pace if they endeavour to lead. It is difficult to second guess race tactics because they have the knack of doing opposite. However, from a low draw it may be the day they go to the front and try to hang on to an easy lead. I can't see her winning, but this filly is likely to huge odds on the exchanges and may touch short odds in-running.
Conclusion: An interesting race. Alkhor will take the beating but a the odds represents little value. Just Glamorous will make a bold show and must have fair each way claims. Girls In A Bentley could go well at big odds and may well be backed. She has a hell of a lot of speed and likely to travel well in this race so should trade shorter in-running.
Couple of non runners have taken away from this race.
A Maiden Stakes over 5f 13y on good to firm ground. Seven two year olds take part: six colts and one filly. Two horses have race experience. Last year, this race was won by Burtonwood on his second start. His best effort came in the Woodcote Stakes (Listed) at Epson, where he finished fourth behind Baitha Alga.
Raj To Riches, trained by David Evans, was an unlucky loser of debut at Windsor when caught on the line. This son of Iffraaj makes a quick return in what could be a more competitive race. This chestnut colt was well backed that day. It was a significant pointer being entered to run in the Brocklesby Stakes. Raj To Riches looked primed to go on debut, on his toes in the paddock and behind the stalls, athletic if not sparingly made. Flying from the stalls, this speedy type looked certain to win but showed signs of inexperience in the closing two furlongs. It is difficult to assess the form of that race although I was left with the feeling that most needed the race. David Evans' runners have fair win and place claims on their second start when priced 7/2 & less. He looks the type of horse who will break well and hope to hold that advantage to the line.
Sir Dudley ran in the Brocklesby Stakes, finishing someway down the field in fifth place. This Irish son of Arcano is out of a winning mare. Trained by James Given in the familiar silks of The Cool Silk Partnership, he was quite well backed with a starting price of 9/2. This February foal is a fair looking juvenile but ring rusty, outpaced and never in contention. It could well be a positive he was fancied in the betting but he needs to find ample improvement to figure here. The stable have a poor win and place strike rate with fancied horses on their second start.
Five debutantes make intriguing opposition from established stables.
The only filly in the field is Caitie, trained by Paul Cole, owned by loyal patron A H Robinson. This bay daughter of first-season sire Canford Cliffs is out of a twice Listed-placed mare [The Shrew], She was unplaced in the 1000 Guineas. Caitie was purchased by Oliver Cole for 40,000gns at the yearling sales. The betting is the best guide. Debutantes from this stable have fair win and place claims when priced 8/1 & less. However, few horses win at bigger odds.
Tom Dascombe is a talented trainer of two year olds and very much a gambling stable. Fresh Arugula is an early foal, a bay colt sired by Fast Company out of a twice-winning mare. He cost 55,000gns at the yearling sales. Manor House Stables often go well with horses making their racecourse bow and if priced 7/1 & less (generally 11/2 & less) they feature fair win and place claims.
Gittan is a son of Kodiac out of a poor mare. This bay colt cost 55,000gns at the yearling sales, rising in value from a foal. Owners Saleh Al Homaizi & Imad Al Sagar have seen their racing silks adorn talents such as Danchai, Toofi & Justineo. Richard Hannon's stable has such a vast string of two year olds that they should always be respected. I find this stable difficult to call but if fancied in the betting has claims.
Mark Johnston is another trainer with a mighty string of juveniles. His team have been going well since the first day of the Flat turf season. Riflescope is a January foal sired by Raven's Pass out of a winning mare. This colt cost 130,000gns [52,000gns foal] when purchased by John Ferguson Bloodstock at the yearling sales. Kingsley House Stable have plenty of form lines to asses their juveniles although I find them tricky to pinpoint on debut. On breeding, this bay colt may need further.
Godolphin have fielded three juveniles this season - all relatively fancied in the betting - but all have trailed home either last or second from last. Charlie Appleby has trained this lackluster trio but there may be hope with Seastrom. This son of Oasis Dream is out of a talented mare [Seta] who won on debut, third in May Hill Stakes (Goup 2), unplaced in the 1000 Guineas. She was highly tried at Group class, while winning three times at Listed. This colt was purchased at the yearling sales for 425,000gns. A beautifully bred juvenile who is worthy of respect.
Conclusion: A fascinating race. Raj To Riches sets the standard and bar a head-bob is a winner in a maiden race. There isn't much of this colt and he was primed for debut. Connections must have been peeved he lost that day and this looks a tougher race. The Windsor contest didn't look that competitive and most of the field needed the race. Evans two year old showed inexperienced when all but a winner, hanging and awkward in the closing stages. The apprentice is in the saddle to give every advantage. Evans is a canny stick and he will use their experience and set the pace hoping to gain an easy lead and hold all-comers at the death. If betting, I would lay your stake bet in-running at even money - praying you hold on! I would have concerns these may be better horses and experience will definitely be their trump card. It wouldn't surprise me if Sir Dudley has more ability than seen on debut in the Brocklesby. Given's stable have poor statistics with fancied runners on their second start which puts me off. I'd rather watch this horse and learn. With such a small field the betting may be skewed in trying to assess the debutantes. However, all should be respected if priced 7/1 & less. Godolphin's two year olds have looked poor this season but Seastrom is bred to be a decent colt and I would suspect he will go well. A watching brief for me. The main pointer is if backing Raj To Riches try and cover your bet if he gains an easy lead.
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An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f 10y on good going. Eight debutante two year olds take part: six colts and two fillies. A varied mix of horse trainers. Last year, this race was won by odds-on shot Magic Roundabout, trained by Richard Hannon, who proved to be a very disappointing horse thereafter.
Windsor is a popular hunting ground for Richard Hannon. Fit is one of two fillies in the line up - a daughter of Kodiac. The mare didn't race until three but won on her second start, trained by Hannon Snr. This bay filly is an early foal [20th January] and racing in the familiar silks of Mrs Julie Wood. She was purchased as a foal for 12,000eur. The stable have a 23% win rate with their juveniles here over the last five years [9 from 40]. Subsequently, their two year olds at this course are often priced to chance and, perhaps, not great value. It often takes a fair filly to beat the colts but a horse to give worthy consideration.
Mark Johnston has continued his flying start to the two year old campaign with Delizia who won on Saturday. Beaverbrook is a home bred colt from Darley. The mare won a couple of races over a trip. Kingsley House Stables are in the limelight and with an increased string of two year olds will be fancied in the betting. On breeding, this bay colt may appreciate 6f. I'd take a watching brief.
Rod Millman fields two colts: Concur is an Irish bred son of Approve out of an unraced mare.This April foal cost £24,000 at the yearling sales purchased by Geoffrey Howson and Rod Millman.
Handytalk is also Irish bred, a son of Lilbourne Lad out of an unraced mare. This bay colt cost £32,000 at the yearling sales. In general, Rod Millman has a poor strike rate with his debutantes with around 3 winners in 130 or so two year olds since 2007. However, two of those victories came in recent years with Master Carpenter (2013) & Bonnie Grey (2014). The former was a class horse, which can often defy the stats. The tissue price [Sporting Life] suggests they will be relatively fancied in the betting. I would have to take a watching brief because they usually improve for race experience.
Interesting to see Marcus Tregoning with an early juvenile. Port Gaverne is an American bred in the ownership of the trainer. This bay colt is a son of Lord Shanakil out of a poor mare who needed a trip. He cost 15,000eur at the yearling sales. This stable can win on debut when priced 14/1 & less. They feature fair place claims when priced at 13/2 & less although the win rate is poor. On balance, I'd take a watching brief.
Raj To Riches could well be a dark horse. David Evans is a canny old stick and this horse was one of two who were engaged to run in the Brocklesby Stakes [Silver Wings]. This chestnut colt, a son Iffraaj, cost 60,000euro as a foal.The trainer and jockey have decent statistics at this course. If priced 13/2 & less has fair win and place claims.
Zeeoneandonly looks to be second string for the trainer.
Arlecchino's Rock cost £21,000 when purchased at the yearling sales by Oliver St Lawrence Bloodstock. This chestnut colt is bred to need further and Mark Usher's juveniles are likely to need the run.
Conclusion: Interesting to see how the ground goes with regard to what could be a good or bad draw. An intriguing race. Richard Hannon does well here and even though Fit is a filly taking on colts she should be respected. It can be difficult to pick the wheat from the chaff but one for the shortlist. Beaverbrook hails from a stable who can do little wrong. I find Johnston's two year olds difficult to assess - the classic easy winner or poor loser. The breeding of this colt suggests he will be better over 6f+. I would take a watching brief. Concur, Handytalk and Port Gaverne come from stables who are better second start. It doesn't mean they cannot win but I wouldn't back them. Raj To Riches catches the eye and his entry for the Brocklesby Stakes may be a pointer to ability. This colt cost 60,000euros at the sales and entered to race at Newbury [Friday]. The trainer and jockey have fair win and place claims at this course and feature a decent strike rate when priced 13/2 & less. Evans always has a fair early horse but whether this is it only time will tell. I would have to consider Fit & Raj To Riches as most likely with the latter most intriguing, especially if backed.
