Thursday 11 April 2013

2:00 Lingfield (12th April) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f. Ten two-year-olds take part: four colts/geldings against the fillies, three horses with form. This is a very restricted race type which is often on a par with plating class. 

David Evans has started the season with his traditional wave of juvenile runners. He is akin to Jack Berry of old and if he had a string of 50 youngsters he would be a force to be reckoned. 

Smugglers Gold had a forgetful debut over course and distance last month. This son of Majestic Missile was sent off favourite but you would have hardly believed it by his performance. This chestnut gelding was clueless on his racecourse bow and finished last. As detailed before, Evans had this youngster entered for the Brocklesby and that with being favourite gave encouragement the stable considered he had ability. That thought came to fruition when he led for most at Leicester when 22/1. Clearly the visor livened him up. It's interesting to see that the head gear has been removed here so his trainer must be convinced the penny has dropped. By all accounts he should have the speed to take advantage of the debutantes. It is never easy for newcomers to win on a turning course, which is much more difficult than a five-furlong straight. Smugglers Gold is probably no more than an average horse but he sets the standard. Care is needed at this time of year as the form is yet untested but he must have each way claims if prices allow.

Another form horse who may be worth a second glance is Brockholes Flyer. Brendan Powell isn't renowned as a two-year-old trainer but this horse was entered for the Brocklesby. He ran a so so race on debut but that was probably a fair contest for the grade, with Far Gaze winning well, while the fourth horse, Diamond Lady, had shown form. This son of Belmont has a wide draw which isn't ideal. However, he has valuable experience and may well sit handy. It is worth noting that these restricted races often include poor horses and why those with form are worthy of note. If drifting to speculative odds on the exchanges he could be worth a small win and place bet. 

The other form horse, Nomathemba, hails from David Evans stable, who also field a debutante. This bay filly was slowly away and outpaced. More is needed and unless substantially backed best watched.

Of the debutantes Bonnie Wee Lassie was purchased by Peter & Ross Doyle for £9,000 at the yearling sales. She is a half-sister to Bonnie Charlie who was a class two-year-old when trained by Richard Hannon, going close at Group class. It would be a surprise if this daughter of Exceed And Excel achieved such dizzy heights. There is one thing you can guarantee, this early foal is bred to be a sprinter. Hannon has such a record with his juveniles that it would be folly to ignore one of their representatives at such a lowly grade. The betting is probably the best guide. 

Stan Moore has been in flying form with his two-year-olds although his winners have come from horses on their second start. Kidmenot was a cheap purchase at £5,000. The stable do have debut winners but they do not have a very good strike rate. On breeding, this filly looks to need a stiffer test and it doesn't inspire confidence to see she has been entered to run at Selling grade. Best watched.

Robert Eddery is a talented horse trainer who can prime his juveniles to win on their racecourse bow. Red Oasis cost £11,000 and bred to be a sprinter. The dam was a determined multiple winner for Derek Shaw. A difficult horse to assess and unless well backed I would take a watching brief.

David Evans' debutante, *Under Your Thumb, is best watched unless substantially backed.

Weisse Girl has the application of the blinkers for her first start and is bred to need further. The stable have a poor strike rate with debutantes and I would look elsewhere unless well supported. 

A similar comment can be made for Flying Kyte & *Notnow Penny.

Conclusion: Make no mistake this is a restricted race and a good few of these juveniles will be racing in plating class before too long. People often forget these races are not fully-blown maidens. They are far from such a grade with  mix of talents. It doesn't mean good horses cannot win in such race types but it does limit the likelihood. Form counts for a lot in this grade and Smugglers Gold could be a much shorter price at the off if there is a major weakness in Bonnie Wee Lassie. Evans' youngster looks to have a great chance because this is a drop in class. His third at Leicester looks to give further hope. However, it must be noted that form is still untested. There is a gulf of difference between proven form and assuming. If touching an each way price he could be a fair bet. The most likely winner. Bonnie Wee Lassie was a cheap buy for a fairly well bred juvenile. It is difficult to assess Hannon's two-year-old. However, they can win on debut and the shorter the price the greater the chance. Brockholes Flyer may sneak a place and if available at huge odds could be worth a small each way bet. The stable don't inspire but that initial experience is a big factor. The other debutantes have to prove they have ability and unless substantially backed I would stick with the three named. 

Please share this post.