4:16 Newcastle Racing Tips (3rd March) Alvediston Makes His Return after Disappointment

I can't say a 3yo 0-70 handicap is the kind of race I would normally review. However, it will be interesting to asses the possibility of one horse in the race over 1m. 

Namely, Alvediston, trained by William Haggas. 

This seven-runner race doesn't look anything out of the ordinary, in fact the favourite, Roxoff, trained by Charles Hills, has an official rating of just 69. No surprise when the race in a 0 - 70, you may say. 

Ridden by Tom Marquand, Alvediston, in the ownership of James Wigan, raced three times at two, starting at odds of 3/1 and less, when racing over 7f. This son of New Bay, out of a two-time-winning mare, was held in some regard by connections. In fact, this 135,000g foal held three Group class engagements. To be fair, he was a big disappointment, unplaced on all starts with little encouragements. His debut at Newbury, when well backed from 4/1 - 5/2, saw some promise. I was on course when this February foal raced at Great Yarmouth on his second start when a 3/1 shot, behind John Gosden's Millennial Moon who won ''impressively'' by two-and-a-half lengths. 

Very stylish! Millennial Moon impresses on just his second start, and this Dubawi colt wins for @CierenFallonJr and the Gosdens at @GTYarmouthRaces! pic.twitter.com/P2T24NgAVk

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) September 15, 2021

Nation's Pride, trained by Charlie Appleby, has progressed well from that initial second place, winning his next three start including a result success at three when trouncing the opposition at Meydan when pocketing almost £90,000. 

I thought Alvediston would go well at Yarmouth that day, back in September (2021), when fitted with the hood for the first time. There was no value in betting that day, although I had a small bet as I was at the course, which added to my irritation when seeing a dismal display. I really don't know what the issue was that day but confident the stable expected much more and that the colt at that time was fancied to go well. Shortly after in October (7th), there was a gelding notification. Some 21-days later, Alvediston returned to Newcastle when backed to 2/1 favourite (from 11/4). 

I'm reviewing the race this second. After leading at a study pace (if not a little keen), he then travelled well enough in second place, putting down a challenge, if not leading, at the furlong pole before tiring into fifth place, beaten a similar number of lengths. A vet said: ''The gelding was struck into on its right hind leg.''

Perhaps this was the issue. 

It will be interesting to see how Alvediston goes at Newcastle racing over 1m. A pretty poor race, not much better than plating class, you'd expect Haggis' gelding to show something after those initial high hopes held last season. It's possible that things didn't go right and this horse will be winning on this return to racing. It might be telling that Alvediston was entered to run in the handicap and a maiden, the former being taken, which, logically, make sense. A seven-runner race and a tissue price of 3/1 is what we would expect with a few ifs and buts. If a talent, this should be a comfortable return and, perhaps, a winning start to the new campaign. It is worth noting that a lot of well entered horses who disappoint at two often bounce back at three. This gives some hope.

I can't say I will be betting, as I'm not keen on Handicaps, but this really should be a race connections expect to win. 

Good luck to all. 

Update: ''Alvediston finished third, after looking to hold a chance but ultimately disappointing. He may pick up a race off his present weight (71) but I'm sure connections had much higher expectations.'' 

4:10 Newmarket Racing Tips (6th May)

Havana Gold Maiden Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f on good going. 

Seven two-year-olds take part: two with racecourse experience.

Hugo Palmer has started this two-year-old season in earnest and Barend Boy ran a cracking race on debut at Leicester. To be fair, this British-bred son of Oasis Dream didn't look like he was going to trouble the leaders when made 9/4f. However, this bay colt really found his stride in the closing furlong and could well have beaten Marie's Diamond if inexperience hadn't proved costly. Palmer has given this youngster an entry for the Lily Agnes but this option looks to have taken preference. With that valuable experience onside, I can see Barend Boy taking some stopping. Should enjoy this stiff finish. 

Mark Johnston has been in pretty good form this early season if not quite achieving the dizzy heights of former seasons. Smile A Mile was made an odds-on shot for his debut at Newcastle but failed to shine. This chestnut son of Slade Power must have been expected to do better. A recent entry for the Lily Agnes Stakes adds to those thoughts. A horse on a recovery mission but one that is likely to show more today. 

Fly The Nest is trained by Charlie Appleby. This March foal cost 200,000 euros at the yearling sales. The stable won this race last year with a debutante so worthy of respect. Godolphin juveniles often make their presence felt at this course. 

A selection of top-class trainers and interesting debutantes.

William Haggas has not had the best start to proceedings with a handful of two-year-olds seen out so far. He managed to find a winner at Yarmouth but a few other prospects have disappointed. He often unleashes a talent at Newmarket although can be a touch unpredictable with debutantes. Fanaar is owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum. This son of Dark Angel cost £240,000 at the yearling sales. Interesting. 

Clive Cox is a smart trainer who knows his horses. He can most certainly ready a debutant. He's had a couple of two-year-olds run this season - a winner and runner-up. Conchek is a black son of Lethal Force. He is an 85,000G yearling purchase. The mare, Soar, was a smart horse who raced up to Group 1. She won on debut and finished runner-up on her second start when contesting the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) at Royal Ascot, going on to win her next two starts at Group 3 and Group 2, respectively. If priced 13/2 & less SP has sound each-way claims. 

Andrew Balding is one of my favourite trainers of two-year-olds. Most seem primed to win on their second start but can win of debut if talented. Oloroso is priced 25/1 which suggests this son of Fast Company isn't expected today. He cost 27,000G at the yearling sales.

Richard Hannon fields Coco Cheval, the only filly in the line up. This chestnut daughter of Kyllachy will need to be pretty smart and primed to depose the colts. She cost 57,00 euros at the yearling sales. The mare didn't achieve anything of note. 

Conclusion: This looks a competitive race. Smile A Mile needs to find much improvement after disappointing on debut at odds-on. However, the betting that day tells the stable were left scratching their head. A recent Lily Agnes entry details they haven't lost hope. I suspect he will go well. I was impressed by Barend Boy on hos first start. This course - with a stiff finish - looks ideal and I would imagine anything that beats him is decent. If pressed, I would make this horse my tip. Fly The Nest cost a lot of money and hails from a stable who usually send their better prospects to compete at Newmarket. Fanaar is another expensive buy. I do like Haggas' juveniles at Newmarket. They can be difficult to predict and often priced to chance. I wouldn't knock this horse. The betting is the best guide to Conchek. If priced 13/2 & less SP is another who will be coming here with some ambition. I would let the betting settle before jumping in just in case it pinpoints one or two weak links. I would have to take a watching brief with just two places for seven runners. A race which will identify a number of future winners.

5:05 Yarmouth Racing Tips (11th Aug) TOTEPLACEPOT SIX PLACES IN SIX RACES EBF MAIDEN STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden stakes (Plus 10) over 7f 3y on good to firm going. 

Not bad prize money for this contest. A few of these come with big reputations. Charlie Appleby has a number of talented two-year-olds in this year's string and Salsabeel is high in the pecking order if my information is correct. This bay colt is a son of Exceed And Excel and homebred for Darley racing in the royal blue silks. As with all juveniles making their debut, it can be a difficult test. However, this February foal is held in high regard and expected to go well.

Jeremy Noseda has been quiet with his two-year-olds this season but he is a class trainer and capable of sending out a debut winner although they often fare better second start. Intrepidly is an American-bred son of Medaglia d' Oro racing in the familiar silks of The Honourable Earl Mack & T Hind Racing. This $200,000 yearling comes from a good family with expensive siblings. This is the only horse Noseda has sent to the course and only ride for Jamie Spencer. Those factors alone give the impression they mean business and add to the interest of this maiden. 

Novoman represents William Haggas. This chestnut son of Sir Prancealot was relatively fancied on debut at Epsom when placed third. A slow start didn't help but it is worth noting that was at auction class which means this is in race type a step up in class. This 90,000G yearling purchase will need to do better today but has valuable race experience. 

James Tate is a superb trainer and he can go very well with juveniles making their racecourse bow. In addition, I consider this Newmarket trainer sends his better horses to race at this venue. Law And Order is a bay colt sired by Lawman racing in the familiar silks of Saeed Manana. At 40,000G this juvenile is a relatively cheap purchase. 

Conclusion: An intriguing race. Law And Order may have claims but I would be looking at just two colts here: Salsabeel & Intrepidly. The former, trained by Charlie Appleby, is held in high regard and for me the horse to beat. Whether 2/1 or so is value is another thing. Time may tell it is a fantastic price. Intrepidly is an expensive purchase and it catches the eye that it is the only horse sent to the course by Noseda and solitary ride for Spencer. I very much doubt they will be coming here just for the seaside air. It could well be a match between the two talking horses. I would favour Salsabeel.  

2:15 Catterick Racing Tips (2nd August) BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF NOVICE STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

An EBF Novice Stakes over 7f on good to firm going. 

The betting suggests this is a three-horse race although stakes race can always be prone to a freaky big price at times. 

However, this looks out of the trio and interesting juveniles they are too.  Glitter Girl is a bay daughter of Invincible Spirit. This Irish-bred filly was relatively fancied on debut and showed a good deal of ability to be beaten into fifth by less than four lengths. This Cheveley Park-owned two-year-old was made 5/4f when stepping up a furlong at Thirsk and didn't have too many worries holding the late challenge of outsider Iconic Belle. In truth that wasn't the most competitive of heats but she was very well backed and ran on strongly to the line for a tidy success. Haggas' charge has to shoulder a penalty which may make life harder. I wouldn't be tempted to bet at 4/6f. 

Richard Fahey can train a juvenile to win on its first start and Golconda Prince must have been showing up well on the gallops to be heading straight to a novice stakes. The plus side with such a move is that if you hold strong claims the winning opposition often carry a penalty which can, in theory, make such a race type a logical route. This Irish-bred son of Arcano cost 85,000G at the yearling sales. This half-brother to Ribchester will need to be pretty smart to bustle up a winner but Fahey has an excellent strike rate with his debutantes and if strong in the market would be a confident sign. 

Mere Brow is interesting. I had my eye on this daughter of Clodovil when she made her debut over 5f at Beverley. Ann Duffield rates this juvenile owned by David Armstrong and I expected this horse to be backed from big odds. Well, I got that completely wrong as a major drift in the market had me feeling apprehensive. Noting that this February foal is stepping up from the minimum trip to 7f clearly details why connections didn't really care what happened on that start because the trip was insufficient. However, Mere Brow ran a cracking race and I was left feeling frustrated that she missed out on a place at huge odds. Considering this youngster was purchased at the yearling sales for £3,000 this bargain buy was inspired. If showing ability over 5f this step up by two furlongs catches the eye. It's a shame this wasn't three places for each-way backers but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Mere Brow win. 

2:40 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (14th Sept) BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Fillies Stakes over 5f 216y on Standard going. Thirteen two-year-olds take part. Nine raced, four making their debut. A couple of interesting fillies from William Haggas and one from Richard Fahey. 

Unless there is something of a surprise this looks out of five horses, at most. The betting is the best guide to Sir Mark Prescott's Cline. This daughter of Pivotal out of a Listed placed mare, she was sent to the breeze-up sales but withdrawn. Very few of the debutantes from Heath House win when priced over 13/2 SP. If strong in the betting, it would be a sign of confidence. Unlikely, in my opinion, but time will tell.

Dismantle has claims but I prefer the trio of hopes. 

Symposium, Field Of Stars & Amber Mystique are potentially smart juveniles. All are held in some regard by their respective trainers. 

It's interesting if not puzzling why Haggas has entered his two charges considering *Field Of Stars holds an entry to run at Yarmouth on Tuesday. The ground at the seaside course is firm so perhaps that has led to this dilemma. This home bred daughter of Acclamation is out of a winning mare for owners Lael Stables [pictured]. This January foal was made favourite on debut at Nottingham over 5f on good to soft ground. She was very well backed from 4/1 - 7/4 but inexperience and most likely insufficient trip made this juvenile look laboured, plugging on in the closing stages, but never really competitive. This step up in distance and a substantial lay off could see a different horse. From a statistical point of view she is slightly favoured to win than her stablemate. However, Field Of Stars doesn't hold any significant Group entries which can be noted for the stable's additional hope.

Symposium caught the eye on debut. This daughter of Exceed And Excel cost 70,000GNS at the yearling sales and races in the silks of The Royal Ascot Racing Club. This chestnut filly is a good specimen. She was backed at Newbury but started at odds of 9/1 suggesting she held claims but likely to progress markedly from that initial start. The form of that race is respectable. It is encouraging she holds an entry for the Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1), one of five juveniles for Sommerville Lodge. As far as flashy entries go, she is not one of the major hopes but still a juvenile of interest. 

Last but not least is Richard Fahey's Amber Mystique. This January foal, a daughter of Sakhee is out of a multiple-winning mare who wasn't quite Listed class. She ran well on debut, especially when considering such a tardy start which really put pay to her winning. Continental Lady made a pleasing start to here career, if not a touch disappointing when stepped up in class. What caught my eye is the fact she was one of just three horses the trainer entered for the Convivial Maiden Stakes at York. That is a significant pointer. 

Conclusion: It is difficult to separate the three major hopes. I'm intrigued to see if both the Haggas juveniles race or whether there is a late non runner. As noted, Field Of stars holds the edge on stats but Symposium looks the part physically. If Field Of Stars drifted outside 13/2 betting guide it would be a negative in my humble opinion. Amber Mystique should improve a good deal. I would look for an each way bet from the second or third favourite because they should be placed and I'd cross my fingers for a win. If Field of Stars is particularly weak in the betting I'd take a watching brief with that horse. Intriguing race.  

*Field Of Stars - NR - Taking the option to run at Yarmouth tomorrow. Makes sense. 

5:55 Windsor (1st June) BETDAQ.COM £20 FREE BET EBF STALLIONS NOVICE STAKES (Plus 10 Race)

An EBF Novice Stakes race over 5f 10y on good to firm going. Nine two-year-olds take part: four with race experience - winners - and three unbeaten on their sole start to date. This isn't a race type I would normally consider a bet but I think there is a class horse in this field with William Haggas' Besharah. This bay filly, a daughter of Kodiac, cost 85,000gns at the yearling sales. She was backed on debut at Ascot, a race where the form has been franked on a number of occasions. Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum's charge weaved her way through the field that day and then outpaced a good field with ease. That was a smart performance. Haggas has been careful placing this juvenile for her second start having been entered to run in Stakes, Listed and Hilary Needler Trophy before taking this option mostly likely en-rout to Royal Ascot. The form horses set a level of ability but by all account not the stiffest class and although the likes of Richard Hannon's debutante WhatdoIwantthatfor are worthy of respect it would take an outstanding horse to lower the colours of Besharah, even with a penalty. If avilable at fair odds [11/4+] I would consider this horse hard to beat. Just notice it is even money. Shortish price but will take world of beating.  

3:00 Brighton (9th September) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 6f 209y on good to soft ground. Eight two-year-olds take part: all colts bar one filly. Most juveniles are lightly raced in a field which features two debutantes. William Haggas has been in tremendous form this season and his youngsters have hit the ground running. Our Channel was fancied to go well on debut at Carlisle but a combination of inexperience and insufficient trip saw this son of English Channel staying on in eye-catching fashion, beaten by a couple of lengths. This American-bred colt was a breeze-up purchase for £33,000, racing in the silks of Abdulla Al Mansoori. This April foal will come on for that first start and enjoy this stiffer test of stamina on better ground. What really adds to the worth of this juvenile's hope is that Haggas has a superb statistical edge in a field where few look to pose any real threat. I would suggest that this horse, which has been as big at 3/1 on the exchanges, should be priced about 11/8. It would be no surprise to see him backed to favourite and an obvious chance to taste victory.