Day 9 of The 30 Day Challenge.
A Maiden Auction Stakes over 7f 32y on standard going. Eleven two-year-olds take part: five colts, six fillies. Nine horses have experience ranging from lightly-raced juveniles to a couple of wisened campaigners.
Not the easiest race to assess.
Jamie Osborne is a talented trainer who knows the capabilities of his two-year-olds and looks to be getting the amunition to fire in a few winners, which hopefully will continue over the next seasons. In general, his debutents have a poor strike rate but he has defied the stats with a number of juveniles this season although most have been fancied in the betting.
Turn On The Tears went close on her first start at Chelmsford when runner-up at odds of 33/1. This Irish-bred daughter of Cape Blanco is out of a twice-winning sprint mare. This chestnut filly cost $20,000 at the yearling sales. Racing in the silks of Danny Durkhan, a long-serving patron with Osborne, Turn On The Tears ran with promise on debut and this extra furlong shouldn't be an inconvenience. The Old Malthouse Stables tend to have their youngsters primed for their second start. The betting is important here. I would be looking for an each-way bet but need 4/1+ to take the plunge and if weak in the betting it would make me play it safe. If starting over 13/2 sp I would take a watching brief. If fancied have decent win and place claims.
6:20 Wolverhampton - Mercifilly trained by Ed Walker. Worth noting in the betting and if the money comes has each-way claims. If 13/2 & less sp is worth a bet. If weak in the market is best watched.
5:45 Wolverhampton - Turn On The Tears (each-way claims if 4/1+ but not over 13/2 sp)
6:20 Wolverhampton - Mercifilly - No bet
Turn On The Tears 9/2 1st
A Maiden Auction Stakes over 6f on Standard going. Quite a restricted race type which pinpoints that form horses have the best chance of winning. Not too much of a surprise here considering we have just one debutante. Just my silly humour! Jamie Osborne is a talented trainer and someone who often goes well with his juveniles on their second start. *Daydream wasn't fancied on debut when racing over course and distance. This bay filly, a daughter of Dream Ahead, is actually owned by the trainer, a relatively cheap Breeze-up purchase at just 19,000euros. This American bred two-year-old ran well on her racecourse bow when finishing sixth, far from disgraced, after a slow start. The betting must be noted here. If priced 13/2 & less sp she hold strong place claims.
Daydreamer NR
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A maiden stakes race over 7f 32y on standard going. Nine three-year-olds take part: colts/geldings and solitary filly.All horses are lightly raced bar three debutantes from leading stables.
Jamie Osborne is a talented trainer and Hardy Black could well take advantage of his debut run over course and distance. This February foal [born on Valentine's Day] was relatively fancied on his racecourse bow but a slow start scuppered this colt's chances, although the favourite who was clueless, trained by Richard Hannon, won with consummate ease. Osborne's charge wasn't helped by a high draw and raced much too wide. A good-looking sort, he traveled well entering the final bend, but tired in the final furlong as if needing the run. This son of Pastoral Pursuits is out of a winning mare. In fact, he is a half brother to Bronterre who was a narrow loser in the Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1), then subsequently well beaten in the 2,000 Guineas.
Hardy Black cost 50,000gns at the yearling sales, a significant purchase for Patrick Gage & Tony Taylor. Jamie Osborne does particularly well with this horses on their second start and looks sure to progress from that initial outing. This bay colt should be primed for the day and hopefully take advantage of the fancied newcomers if they are a little ring rusty. The betting is of importance and money would be a sign of confidence. However, if priced 13/2 & less sp this youngster could have strong each way claims.
A Maiden Auction Stakes over 6f. Quite a restricted race. Ten juveniles take part, seven raced, three debutantes, predominantly colts. The majority of the field have limited ability which makes assessment difficult. One horse which caught my attention is Jamie Osborne's Thewandaofu. This roan filly was purchased by the trainer at the yearling sales for 16,000gns. This daughter of Clodovil is a fair-looking horse who ran in a decent race for the grade at Warwick over 51/2f on debut. The winner was tested and capable with the second and third showing promise. Thewandaofu wasn't best away from the stalls and inexperienced.Osborne's two-year-olds can improved markedly on their second start. I would expect a big run today and a prime draw could give this March foal a good advantage. A negative is that she has to take on a bunch of colts.
Bold Max was behind her at Warwick and probably best suited to nursery races.
Jana was made favourite for that race but finished last. She was a cheap purchase but comes from a decent family. There was little sparkle to be gained from that initial start, however, the question that we need to ask is whether she simply disappointed. That isn't easy to answer and the betting is the best guide. If strongly fancied I would expect a bold show. Conversely, a weakness in the betting would suggest a watching brief.
Another disappointment was Red Oasis, trained by Robert Eddery. He was well backed on debut early season but withdrawn due to lameness at the start. This bay colt was quite well fancied at Lingfield but ran poorly. After that effort I would have to take a watching brief. It would be interested if the money come once more but even that wouldn't change my mind.
Plucky Dip is difficult to assess because the front two horses were clear of the field. Severnwind hailes from a stable which has done well with their juveniles this season but needs to improve on his debut effort. Brockholes Flyer is best suited by handicaps.
In these limited races experience and form - even if limited - usually takes precedent although a couple of debutantes originate from trainers who can spring a surprise. Top Of The Glas is one of the last offspring of the ill-fated Verglas. This April foal is out of an unraced mare. Alan Jarvis is a difficult trainer to assess on debut but he has had a few talents win first start over the years. They often go in at speculative prices, which is unlikely to be the case for this colt. I would probably take a watching brief but respect this individual.
Tim Pitt is a talented trainer who has made a well-deserved fist of things since his early career sadly failed. He is someone to keep onside and this season has already proved positive with a winning two-year-old. Valued Opinion is out of a mare enjoyed a trip, while the sire was a talented sprinter. I'm not sure if I would be so bold to back this horse on his racecourse bow but wouldn't be surprised to see a good show. It should be remembered that it is never easy for newcomers to race on a turning track, especially where good pace can give a significant advantage.
Stellarta is best watched.
Conclusion: Most of these horses have something to prove but their hope is running in a restricted race of this nature. In general, those with form hold the advantage, while experience is a valuable commodity on this turning course, especially with a low draw. Most horses do not inspired or are difficult to assess. Thewandaofu ticks a lot of boxes on that first start alone and improvement looks to be on the cards. A low draw is a major positive and this step up in distance with suit. Osborne is a canny trainer who does well around here and his horses are primed for their second start. It is a slight concern taking on a field which consists predominantly of colts but they have something to prove. It is difficult to appreciate what price she will start. If on the short side I would probably take a watching brief but this would be my selection. If available at each way prices - unlikely - I would be looking at a decent bet. The betting will be key for Jana. If strongly fancied, expect a big show. However, that first run left much to be desired. The others are best watched.
