Sunday 6 May 2018

4:10 Newmarket Racing Tips (6th May)

Havana Gold Maiden Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f on good going. 

Seven two-year-olds take part: two with racecourse experience.

Hugo Palmer has started this two-year-old season in earnest and Barend Boy ran a cracking race on debut at Leicester. To be fair, this British-bred son of Oasis Dream didn't look like he was going to trouble the leaders when made 9/4f. However, this bay colt really found his stride in the closing furlong and could well have beaten Marie's Diamond if inexperience hadn't proved costly. Palmer has given this youngster an entry for the Lily Agnes but this option looks to have taken preference. With that valuable experience onside, I can see Barend Boy taking some stopping. Should enjoy this stiff finish. 

Mark Johnston has been in pretty good form this early season if not quite achieving the dizzy heights of former seasons. Smile A Mile was made an odds-on shot for his debut at Newcastle but failed to shine. This chestnut son of Slade Power must have been expected to do better. A recent entry for the Lily Agnes Stakes adds to those thoughts. A horse on a recovery mission but one that is likely to show more today. 

Fly The Nest is trained by Charlie Appleby. This March foal cost 200,000 euros at the yearling sales. The stable won this race last year with a debutante so worthy of respect. Godolphin juveniles often make their presence felt at this course. 

A selection of top-class trainers and interesting debutantes.

William Haggas has not had the best start to proceedings with a handful of two-year-olds seen out so far. He managed to find a winner at Yarmouth but a few other prospects have disappointed. He often unleashes a talent at Newmarket although can be a touch unpredictable with debutantes. Fanaar is owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum. This son of Dark Angel cost £240,000 at the yearling sales. Interesting. 

Clive Cox is a smart trainer who knows his horses. He can most certainly ready a debutant. He's had a couple of two-year-olds run this season - a winner and runner-up. Conchek is a black son of Lethal Force. He is an 85,000G yearling purchase. The mare, Soar, was a smart horse who raced up to Group 1. She won on debut and finished runner-up on her second start when contesting the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) at Royal Ascot, going on to win her next two starts at Group 3 and Group 2, respectively. If priced 13/2 & less SP has sound each-way claims. 

Andrew Balding is one of my favourite trainers of two-year-olds. Most seem primed to win on their second start but can win of debut if talented. Oloroso is priced 25/1 which suggests this son of Fast Company isn't expected today. He cost 27,000G at the yearling sales.

Richard Hannon fields Coco Cheval, the only filly in the line up. This chestnut daughter of Kyllachy will need to be pretty smart and primed to depose the colts. She cost 57,00 euros at the yearling sales. The mare didn't achieve anything of note. 

Conclusion: This looks a competitive race. Smile A Mile needs to find much improvement after disappointing on debut at odds-on. However, the betting that day tells the stable were left scratching their head. A recent Lily Agnes entry details they haven't lost hope. I suspect he will go well. I was impressed by Barend Boy on hos first start. This course - with a stiff finish - looks ideal and I would imagine anything that beats him is decent. If pressed, I would make this horse my tip. Fly The Nest cost a lot of money and hails from a stable who usually send their better prospects to compete at Newmarket. Fanaar is another expensive buy. I do like Haggas' juveniles at Newmarket. They can be difficult to predict and often priced to chance. I wouldn't knock this horse. The betting is the best guide to Conchek. If priced 13/2 & less SP is another who will be coming here with some ambition. I would let the betting settle before jumping in just in case it pinpoints one or two weak links. I would have to take a watching brief with just two places for seven runners. A race which will identify a number of future winners.