Wednesday 2 March 2022

4:16 Newcastle Racing Tips (3rd March) Alvediston Makes His Return after Disappointment

I can't say a 3yo 0-70 handicap is the kind of race I would normally review. However, it will be interesting to asses the possibility of one horse in the race over 1m. 

Namely, Alvediston, trained by William Haggas. 

This seven-runner race doesn't look anything out of the ordinary, in fact the favourite, Roxoff, trained by Charles Hills, has an official rating of just 69. No surprise when the race in a 0 - 70, you may say. 

Ridden by Tom Marquand, Alvediston, in the ownership of James Wigan, raced three times at two, starting at odds of 3/1 and less, when racing over 7f. This son of New Bay, out of a two-time-winning mare, was held in some regard by connections. In fact, this 135,000g foal held three Group class engagements. To be fair, he was a big disappointment, unplaced on all starts with little encouragements. His debut at Newbury, when well backed from 4/1 - 5/2, saw some promise. I was on course when this February foal raced at Great Yarmouth on his second start when a 3/1 shot, behind John Gosden's Millennial Moon who won ''impressively'' by two-and-a-half lengths. 

Nation's Pride, trained by Charlie Appleby, has progressed well from that initial second place, winning his next three start including a result success at three when trouncing the opposition at Meydan when pocketing almost £90,000. 

I thought Alvediston would go well at Yarmouth that day, back in September (2021), when fitted with the hood for the first time. There was no value in betting that day, although I had a small bet as I was at the course, which added to my irritation when seeing a dismal display. I really don't know what the issue was that day but confident the stable expected much more and that the colt at that time was fancied to go well. Shortly after in October (7th), there was a gelding notification. Some 21-days later, Alvediston returned to Newcastle when backed to 2/1 favourite (from 11/4). 

I'm reviewing the race this second. After leading at a study pace (if not a little keen), he then travelled well enough in second place, putting down a challenge, if not leading, at the furlong pole before tiring into fifth place, beaten a similar number of lengths. A vet said: ''The gelding was struck into on its right hind leg.''

Perhaps this was the issue. 

It will be interesting to see how Alvediston goes at Newcastle racing over 1m. A pretty poor race, not much better than plating class, you'd expect Haggis' gelding to show something after those initial high hopes held last season. It's possible that things didn't go right and this horse will be winning on this return to racing. It might be telling that Alvediston was entered to run in the handicap and a maiden, the former being taken, which, logically, make sense. A seven-runner race and a tissue price of 3/1 is what we would expect with a few ifs and buts. If a talent, this should be a comfortable return and, perhaps, a winning start to the new campaign. It is worth noting that a lot of well entered horses who disappoint at two often bounce back at three. This gives some hope.

I can't say I will be betting, as I'm not keen on Handicaps, but this really should be a race connections expect to win. 

Good luck to all. 

Update: ''Alvediston finished third, after looking to hold a chance but ultimately disappointing. He may pick up a race off his present weight (71) but I'm sure connections had much higher expectations.''