An EBF Novice Stakes over 7f on good to firm going.
The betting suggests this is a three-horse race although stakes race can always be prone to a freaky big price at times.
However, this looks out of the trio and interesting juveniles they are too. Glitter Girl is a bay daughter of Invincible Spirit. This Irish-bred filly was relatively fancied on debut and showed a good deal of ability to be beaten into fifth by less than four lengths. This Cheveley Park-owned two-year-old was made 5/4f when stepping up a furlong at Thirsk and didn't have too many worries holding the late challenge of outsider Iconic Belle. In truth that wasn't the most competitive of heats but she was very well backed and ran on strongly to the line for a tidy success. Haggas' charge has to shoulder a penalty which may make life harder. I wouldn't be tempted to bet at 4/6f.
Richard Fahey can train a juvenile to win on its first start and Golconda Prince must have been showing up well on the gallops to be heading straight to a novice stakes. The plus side with such a move is that if you hold strong claims the winning opposition often carry a penalty which can, in theory, make such a race type a logical route. This Irish-bred son of Arcano cost 85,000G at the yearling sales. This half-brother to Ribchester will need to be pretty smart to bustle up a winner but Fahey has an excellent strike rate with his debutantes and if strong in the market would be a confident sign.
Mere Brow is interesting. I had my eye on this daughter of Clodovil when she made her debut over 5f at Beverley. Ann Duffield rates this juvenile owned by David Armstrong and I expected this horse to be backed from big odds. Well, I got that completely wrong as a major drift in the market had me feeling apprehensive. Noting that this February foal is stepping up from the minimum trip to 7f clearly details why connections didn't really care what happened on that start because the trip was insufficient. However, Mere Brow ran a cracking race and I was left feeling frustrated that she missed out on a place at huge odds. Considering this youngster was purchased at the yearling sales for £3,000 this bargain buy was inspired. If showing ability over 5f this step up by two furlongs catches the eye. It's a shame this wasn't three places for each-way backers but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Mere Brow win.
An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 5f on good to firm going. An interesting contest with one or two well regarded juveniles. Five two-year-olds with form - the majority unraced.
Copacobana has ability but been unlucky to have found a couple of stiff races. Her fourth over course and distance has worked out very well. After a few runs there is a chance this bay filly is regressing. After showing pace over 6f in nursery company, she weakened out of contention. Could have a claims but would need to be a big price and I have a feeling one or two debutantes will steal the show.
Girl In A Bentley has tremendous speed over three furlong and looks the type to lay at shorter odds in running.
Baby Ballerina is clearly held in some regard by Brian Ellison but she is likely to be outpaced and running on at the finish. Much bigger odds will be available mid race.
John Quinn knows his horses and Al Zubarah cost £120,000 at the yearling sales racing in the familiar silks of Al Shaqab Racing. The betting will be the best guide. If priced 13/2 & less has respectable win and place claims.
Three over debutantes are worthy of note - all have been given significant entries as detailed on Group Horse.
Ann Duffield have been in good form with her two-year-olds and they can go well on debut although you get a mixed bag. Harmonic Wave is a daughter of Zebedee and cost £40,000 at the breeze-up sales for long-standing owner John Dance. A wide draw isn't ideal. This bay filly has been given a stakes race entry which may be a sign of confidence.
Karl Burke is a superb trainer of juveniles and Ontoawinner syndicate have excelled with their string of horses. *Quiet Reflection catches the eye and I would be surprised if this daughter of Showcasing out of a winning mare doesn't have ability. She was purchased by the trainer for £44,000 at the breeze-up sales and interestingly given a stakes and Lowther stakes (Group 2) entry of late. The stable have three debutantes entered at this stage. Spigot Lodge can ready a juvenile for its racecourse bow and they can win at odds of 10/1 & less. This February foal could well be backed and it may pay to get your bets on early. Will appreciate an extra furlong in time but a live hope. *NR
David Barron is very selective with his lofty entries and Lady Clair has been noted at the first entry stake of the Lowther stakes (Group 2). This daughter of Canford Cliffs is out of an unraced mare. Another breeze-up purchase at 55,000euro, in the ownership of White Rose Racing. Well drawn in stall four, this bay filly would have claims if priced 10/1 & less on debut.
Summary: An intriguing race - particularly interested in Quiet Reflection for Karl Burke and the Ontoawinner syndicate. I've detailed this race early so readers can take note of the betting for this horse. I have a feeling she will be substantially backed. Lady Clair could well have ability and if seriously backed will go well. With Quiet Reflection being a non runner I would give Lady Clair a big shout.
An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f 212y on good to firm ground. Eight juveniles take part: three colts against a handful of fillies. All two-year-olds are raced bar one debutante from a leading stable.
Augusta Ada sets the standard and a talented daughter of Byron, trained by Ollie Pears. This bay filly has raced four times and done little wrong to date. In fact, a run-of-the-mill maiden should be a straight forward endeavour. All defeats have been against talented juveniles and connection must feel disappointed by their bad luck but bolstered by consistency. This big, strong filly travels well and has a determined spirit. There is always a slight concern that after four tough races she could regress at some point. That's what puts money in the bookmaker's satchels. It is likely she will start odds-on favourite, which is probably price to chance with little meat on the bone, although a stiff test for most of the opposition. The horse to beat.
Mark Johnston has been in decent form with his two-year-olds this season although I have very little confidence in his debutantes who run so indifferently that I would rather take them on than back them. Pure Amber cost 55,000euros - purchased by Mark Johnston Racing. This son of Shamardal, out of a Group-raced mare, is likely to be fancied in the betting. However, the stable's debutantes are either easy winners or poor losers and I would have to take a watching brief.
Of the other form horses Song Of Rowland started his career with Peter Chapple-Hyam, making his debut in a Stakes race at Yarmouth over 6f. He was relatively fancied that day but didn't show a great deal behind the talented, Group-winning Lucky Kristale. This horse was originally in the ownership of Mrs Fitri Hay and cost £50,000 as a yearling. In ways it was a surprising move to see connections opt to go for the Rous Selling Stakes at York. The prize money was good for that race type but it did seem something of a come down and David O'Meara purchased this juvenile for Dr Marwan Koukash for £12,000 in the following auction. In truth, that looked a good buy because a return to York, finishing 6th behind The Grey Gatsby. A horse with an ounce of ability but more likely to be placed than win unless the favourite disappoints.
Romantic Bliss needs to improve a good deal from her first start when nearer last than first at Haydock over 6f. This daughter of Holy Roman Emperor was a cheap foal and certainly has something to prove. On form this horse has no chance but the stable's two-year-olds can transform from first to second start. The betting is key for this bay filly and if the money comes I would get set for a big run. If priced 13/2 & less she has serious claims.
Sukari Gold was relatively fancied on debut but showed limited ability. Kevin Ryan has a number of talented juveniles in his string and if well backed there could be more to come. The betting is the best guide. If priced 13/2 & less it would bring greater hope.
Goadby, Breakable & Meconopsis are best watched.
Conclusion: Augusta Ada deserves to win a maiden and has the ability to do just that without too much fuss. A few talented juveniles have deprived connections of victory and this looks the easiest test so far. A consistent, strong-travelling filly, she will take the beating although probably priced to chance and likely to start odds-on favourite. Pure Amber is best watched. Song Of Rowland has each way claims but looks to have a stiff task against the favourite. An outsider who may go well is Romantic Bliss. That first start didn't give too much crow about. However, this stable like to gamble and if backed has strong win and place claims.
An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 5f on good to firm ground. Nine two-year-olds take part. The betting suggests the debutantes are the major fancies from a trio of leading juvenile trainers. Quite a difficult race to assess and the newcomers will need to be wise and fit to do themselves justice. Resist - trained by Tobias Coles - is an interesting daughter of Rock Of Gibraltar, who on breeding would look to need a trip. However, she showed good pace last time when racing at Wolverhampton over 6f. The form of that race is likely to hold up and although this March foal was outpaced in the final furlong she showed good pace to remain competitive until the furlong pole. The problem with a horse dropping back in distance is what looks to be good pace can be blunted at the minimum trip. That is something of a quandary for Resist. If relatively short odds this horse wouldn't register but at odds of 12/1 there may be each way value. A wide draw isn't ideal but that may be negated by a few debutantes or limited horses which have their work cut out to start with. Even if slightly struggling to go the pace - could well have enough pace to lead - there should be no problem running to the line. A horse which is difficult to be bullish about but it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see her go well at speculative odds especially if one or two of the fancied newcomers are ring rusty.
An EBF Maiden Stakes over 7f on good to firm ground.
This looks a battle between the two.
I like Medicoe here. Although not much of a price he should take some beating. Sir Mark Prescott has taken his time with this son of Medicean who will go well on this turning course. This home bred, a chestnut gelding & January foal, was fancied on debut, which is often a telling pointer to this yard's better juveniles. Connections must have hoped for more on debut but a wide draw, insufficient trip & inexperience found him out. His breeding suggests a stiff test of stamina would be ideal, so it was surprising to see him dropped to the minimum trip when competing at Yarmouth second start. After being outpaced, Medicoe ran on with purpose, making ground on the winner who is no slouch. That was a respectable performance considering. Next start saw a return to 6f at York, which is a sharp track. Although an auction event the prize money was respectable and that was a good race for the grade. Luke Morris gave his mount a professional ride and for much of the race he looked to hold every chance. The winner and second are decent juveniles but what bolstered his form was beating two fair yardsticks in Ajmany & Bachotheque. The key to this juvenile's improvement is this step up to 7f. This will be the making of this horse and I would be surprised if he is beaten.
Mark Johnston's stable have been in supreme form over the last week and Excellent Mariner has been fancied on both starts to date. This daughter of Henrythenavigator comes from a good family and she looks a battling type. She showed signs of inexperience on debut although not beaten far. She then looked to have the upper hand over Linguine at Beverley only to be worn down in the closing stages. It will be interesting if Johnston decided to send her to the front on this turning course. This bay filly has form over this trip and connections will have her primed today, ironing out those signs of inexperience which have been costly so far. This looks a fascinating duel and a tough challenge for both horses.
Although hampered when racing against Excellent Mariner at Musselburgh, Chant looks to be held.
Of the others, Ollie Pears fields three juveniles: two who have run in plating class and the other outpointed at auction level. All need to progress to pose a major threat.
Juana Belen ran over course and distance on debut when a hot favourite for a lowly selling race. Barron's youngster was clearly placed to win and that is her grade. This will be a test and I would favour others.
It is worth keeping an eye on the betting for Star Request trained by Keith Dalgleish. She was an outsider at Redcar over 6f and showed a glimmer of ability although the race was moderate. If substantially backed it would bring further confidence.
Conclusion: I wouldn't look beyond the two favourites and side with Medicoe. This step up to 7f is ideal and considering he has shown ample ability over lesser distances speaks well in this weak race. It is a slight negative that Sir Mark Prescott has a poor strike rate at this course with his two-year-olds but that wouldn't temper my enthusiasm. Excellent Mariner is a determined filly. Connections will consider this to be a great opportunity and with the stable hitting a purple patch it would be wise to respect this juvenile. I can see a bold front-running performance but expect Medicoe to have the edge at the line.
HCE Mentions:
2:10 Wolverhampton
Not best drawn but a low weight for Modern Lady who showed a glimmer of ability last time at Thirsk. Guest is a canny trainer and this is a good, strong filly who is better than we have seen. This could be her day to shine.
6:05 Ripon
Moviesta is held in some regard by the stable and ran a fair debut at Pontefract when wide drawn, and running on the extreme for most before putting down a late challenge. He was ridden as though fit but that experience will give greater hope. Probably priced to chance. Would have been an HCE Gold Tip if an each way price.
7:25 Kempton
Veturia ran well on debut when competing at stakes class. This step up to 7f should not pose a problem and in a race which may not have much strength beyond the favourite and must have place claims at least.
An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 5f. A large field with lightly-raced juveniles, two debutantes.
An intriguing race.
The majority of this field don't make much appeal and a handful of two-year-olds will be the focus of our attention.
Mandi Lexi has been knocking on the door and a determined juvenile. Few trainers attain a consistency such as Bryan Smart, a talent in placing his horses. This daughter of Dark Angel failed to make a winning debut by no more than a stride or two and has done little wrong in each of her four races. I feared this grey filly would be outpaced when dropping back to the minimum distance at Carlisle. However, there was never a moments worry as she lead for most and was only foiled in the closing stages by Blue Lotus. That was probably a fair race and she must hold similarly strong claims here. From a low draw, Eaves will make a bold bid from the front. The soft conditions will not hinder and a capable filly at this grade. If touching an each way price (unlikely) Dr Marwan Koukash's youngster would make a good bet.
Our Diane seems quite fancied on the betting exchanges, which surprises me. David O'Meara's bay filly by Exceed And Excel was set a tall challenge when making her debut in the Hilary Needler Trophy at Beverley. She was well backed, showed good speed, but dropped out in the final two furlongs. Well beaten. It is difficult to appreciate what happened next time at Chester. However, I was left with the impression someone knew she wasn't going to run much of a race. The late drift in the betting was significant. Whether connections feared the draw or the testing ground wasn't suiting, this bay filly never looked likely to win, racing wide. This youngster held an entry for the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2), which gives the impression she has not fulfilled her potential. The betting is the best guide. If strongly fancied I would take note. Although I couldn't entertain the thought of betting from stall twelve. A watching brief.
Tom Dascombe has been rather hit and miss with his juveniles this season. Dream Maker was a bargain buy: a £1,000 yearling purchase. She has been relatively fancied on both starts. This daughter of Bahamian Bounty coped with stepping back to the minimum trip at Redcar. On the surface that seems a fair display. However, I have concerns that form is limited. A good draw will see Kingscote try and lead but this chestnut filly may find this a tough task with the likes of Mandi Lexi chomping at the bit. She needs to improve and others make greater appeal.
David Barron has been catching the eye with his training exploits this season. Make no mistake this stable know when their two-year-olds hold a strong chance of winning. The betting has been a clear indicator of their debutantes. Tussy Marx - owned by Norton Common Farm Racing - is best judged by the betting. If substantially backed, she will most probably win. The negative? This course is suited to more experienced juveniles with pace. Drawn two, this may be her Achilles heel. A tardy start would make this a difficult task.
Therapeutic could be a good bet if not regressing. Scott Dixon must be surprised this daughter of Milk It Mick hasn't lost her maiden tag but that has been more to do with circumstances than limitation. She ran well on debut at Doncaster, a good few lengths behind Reckless Abandon, who went on to win the Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) at Royal Ascot. The form of that racecourse bow has been franked on numerous occasions. At Beverley, she ran well to finish second behind Dream Scenario who may progress to race at Listed class. All looked good when made favourite at Musselburgh. She seemd a near certainty to be placed but Starbotton put pay to any hopes of that. James Bethell's youngster ran a fantastic race. I was impressed by that victory because not only did the winner show great pace but a gritty determination which saw those in behind crumple. That may be a blessing for those who back Therapeutic today because that running made her look much worse when, in truth, she is a capable type. The only concern is that after a few hard races she may start to regress, which would most likely see her unplaced. However, from a long draw, I would give her another chance, especially if a decent each way bet.
Conclusion: An intriguing race on a number of levels. There seems to be money for Our Diane which makes me wonder what happened at Chester. She could well be better than seen but I would take a watching brief, especially from a wide draw which makes life difficult on this turning course. If condition deteriorated and the ground becomes very testing this could - in theory - be the best stall. I would still take a watching brief although if starting favourite it would have to be viewed as a positive. Mandi Lexi is a consistent filly who deserves a win. I would expect a bold show and if touching an each way price a worthy bet. Looks outstanding for a place. The betting is key for Tussy Marx. Barron's stable have so many talented juveniles they clearly know what is required and bet to win. If backed to near favouritism I would expect a big run. Therapeutic would be my idea of a good each way selection especially at decent odds. That last run was deceptive and as long as she hasn't regressed could be of interest.
