I'll keep this brief as I think I'm slowly going mad... Far too busy. One horse is worth noting here and that is Black Hambleton. Bryan Smart hasn't been engulfed with juveniles this season, compared with past, but he has a couple of talents with King Robert and Kentuckyconnection gearing up to race at Group level. This bay colt, a son of Dick Turpin, ran well enough on soft ground on debut at Hamilton behind War Queen. This February foal is likely to improve for that first start and appreciate this step up to 7f. The betting is very important here and I would take a watching brief if not priced 13/2 & less SP. I'm not saying he cannot win outside that guide but it would temper my enthusiasm. If fitting this criteria he should have good win and place claims. With only eight runners it could be sod's law one of two drop out to hinder three places. Even if there are two places I would still bet (no worries if you are betting on the exchanges).
7:10 Bath - A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f 161y on good to firm going. Jamie Osborne is always worth noting with his two-year-olds on their second start and My Best Song should be primed today. This American bred daughter of Songandprayer was a cheap buy, a $12,000 yearling. She ran behind the impressive Galileo Gold on debut at Salisbury. The winner is a talent who won the Vintage Stakes (group 2) at Glorious Goodwood the other day for new owners Al Shaqab Racing Ltd. My Best Song was eclipsed by one of today's runners Zeeoneandonly who certainly has pace to burn. She has a wide draw but likely to go to the front. My Best Song is likely to improve after an absence of over fifty days. The betting is very important. I would give this youngster decent each-way claims if priced 13/2 & less. If outside this guide, best watched.
Black Hambleton 6th (didn't run race - better will be seen next time out)
My Best Song 9/2 2nd
A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 5f 161y on good to firm going. Ten two year olds: eight colts and two fillies. Four juveniles have race experience. Quite a restricted race type which generally benefits those with form although those candidates, for the most part, look limited.
Richard Hannon has been rather hit and miss with his juveniles this season but Receding Waves has been made short odds on the tissue prices. This son of Dick Turpin cost 22,000GNS at the yearling sales. The stable have a good strike rate at this course with their youngsters. It is worth noting this bay colt has been given a stakes entry, which gives confidence. He is well drawn in stall one. A horse to respect if starting favourite.
R A Green is a significant owner for Gary Moore and this combination have fielded some talented juveniles in their time. Art Collection is a son of Shakespearean out on an unraced mare. This bay colt didn't go through the sales. The trainer does have winners on debut and they have a good strike rate when priced 13/2 & less SP. Strangely, they either win or unplaced - so all or nothing. Definitely one for the short list. They can win up to 10/1 & less so worth noting. If outside these guides - best watched.
Another fancies runner in the betting is Brian Meehan's Tawdheef. This brown colt, a son of Zebedee out of a talented group-placed mare.For such a restricted race type this yearling cost a substantial sum at £92,000. If priced 7/2 & less, this Hamdan Al Maktoum-owned colt have respectable win and place claims. This stable often go well with horses priced 8/1 & less and an interesting contender. Again, this outfit go well at this course.
Gandvik hails from a trainer who have few winner priced over 10/1. If fancied in the betting, his chances would be improved considerably. If weak in the betting - best watched.
York Minster and Lady Fontenail are best watch and likely to improve for their debut.
An outsider who is worth a second glance is Rio Glamourous who finished last on debut at Leicester, looking uncontrollable, wild from start to finish. This son of Aussie Rule was a big price on debut and most likely needed the experience. However, although a cheap purchase he is quite well bred out of a group-raced mare. Could go well at a price if keeping under control!
Conclusion: The betting will give the best guide. Receding Wave looks to be fancied in the betting and Hannon's two year olds go well at a short price. It is encouraging he has been given a stakes race entry. I'd bet this horse goes well if starting favourite. Art Collection & Tawdheef have fair claims if priced 8/1 & less SP, which is likely to be the case. The former has strong claims if priced 13/2 & less. Tawdheef cost a lot of money for this grade. Rio Glamourous could have claims at astronomical odds.
A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f 11y on firm going. Nine two-year-olds take part with a fair weight difference between the field, a mix of colts, geldings and fillies, including two debutantes. The restrictive nature of these races means ability is pretty thin on the ground and the majority of the field are moderate at best, while those with an ounce of form still have aspects of weakness.
Captain Ryan is one of those horses who needs to be handled with care: both jockey and punter.
Peter Makin's gelding is sired by Captain Gerard, out of a moderate sprinting mare, who couldn't get her head in front in a career which spanned thirty-four races. This bay is a bonny sort who was fancied to go well on debut over course and distance but ran as though unfit. However, the betting must have held some significance because he nearly gave favourite backers a heart attack when setting the pace at Goodwood when 50/1. Odds-on backers had time to smile at the finish. The form of that race has been franked a number of times. If achieving that level he has claims.
The Og Partnership [owners] must have fancied their chances when making a return to Bath, a course where speed is of the essence. Captain Ryan is the type of horse to run full throttle and it was no surprise to see him set the pace against Danfazi who would have most horses struggling for pace. It is difficult to appreciate whether it was the horse or the jockey but Seb Sanders didn't look at his best when pulling and slapping this juvenile down the neck, which magnified the awkwardness. Time may tell it was more Captain Ryan because there is little doubt he is a tricky horse. The biggest concern is whether he can finish his race because the last twice he has tired in the final hundred yards.
Many horses win not because they are the best in a race but because they run through the line - it is a huge advantage, especially in low class. In contrast, a short runner will always need things to fall into place and so often they are either easy winners or poor losers.
It is unlikely any of the opposition will have the pace to stay with this April foal. Another question is whether connections will consider hold-up tactics, endeavouring to finish the race. This often proves a futile tactic.
In my opinion, it is a positive that Steve Drown is back in the saddle. Considering the pros and cons, how do we view this horse as a betting opportunity? I have seen many horses who have been in this mould. Fast. Too fast. Tiring. Where's the finishing line? Many struggle to win. A wide draw is likely to make his jockey press forward and lead. I wouldn't bet each way as he will either win or be prone to finish out of the frame. If betting on the exchanges, it would be wise to place a wager in-running at short odds to cover your stake and then hope Captain Ryan lasts to the line. Whether he will do just that is the gamble.
An intriguing horse.
A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 5f 11y on good to soft ground. Sixteen two-year-olds take part - a mix of colts & fillies - predominantly debutantes with a handful of horses with experience. Beau Nash sets the standard of those to have raced. This bay colt, a son of Dandy Man, is a good-looking horse and £25,000 yearling buy. He was
ridden with confidence, after being held up off the pace, and looked to put down a winning challenge only to be outstayed by Master Carpenter, who could well be a fair type. The form has been franked with the third, fifth & seventh winning on their next start. The major contender although one or two debutantes are of interest.
Ed McMahon is a superb trainer and his early two-year-olds often prove to be some of his best horses. This is especially true of those owned by John Fretwell. He bought Capitulate ,this son of Avonbridge, for £18,000 at the yearling sales. The stable went close with their first juvenile at Beverley and they have a good strike rate here. In fact, this owner's debutantes feature a 40% place rate at any price, which raises significantly when priced 8/1 & less SP. A number of their juveniles at this course have been substantially backed. If priced at fancy odds on the exchanges it could pay to bet and hope a gamble ensues.
Another trainer who comes into his own at this course is Clive Cox. Beldale Memory is a daughter of Camacho and a cheap purchase at £8,000. The betting is key. If priced 10/1 & less the stable have an outstanding place rate at this course with their debutantes.
El Duque looked to be going the right way for Bill Turner after running well on debut. However, he disappointed next start at Southwell. The fibresand surface doesn't suit all horses and it could be the case he simply didn't enjoy that day at the races. There is one thing we can be sure, he needs an excuse and improvement to come. If weak in the betting I would take a watching brief.
Mick Channon does well at this track and his horses can win on their racecourse bow. Sartori has fair win and place claims if priced 13/2 & less. Very few of their horses win if weak in the betting.
Rush, a home bred filly trained but Paul Cole, is another who is best judged by the betting. If priced 8/1 and less this horse have win and place claims.
It is interesting to follow the changing fortunes of trainers big and small, especially those on the rise. That is very much the case for Ron Harris' two-year-olds this season which have been in sparkling form. Fantasy Justifier was bought by the trainer for 20,000euros and fancied on the exchanges [Thursday, evening]. With a couple of talented juveniles in his string he should have a guide to where this youngster stands and if backed it would bring added confidence.
Money for Caledonia Laird could be significant.
Conclusion: Experience has proven the key to so many two-year-old winners this season and Beau Nash hails from a stable who know how to win. This good-looking colt is likely to lead many of these a merry dance and take some beating. Ed McMahon is a superb trainer and that added to the ownership of John Fretwell makes me take note of Capitulate. The stable have a good place rate with all debut runners irrespective of price. Early season horses are often their best and if backed it would be a sign of confidence. He could hit the frame. The betting is key to the chances of Sartori, Rush & Beldale Memory. All have claims if priced 8/1 & less. Money for Fantasy Justifier would be a sign of confidence with the stable youngsters going well.
Other 2yo races:
3:40 Newbury
A Median Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f 161y on good to firm ground.
A large field, most raced, of a very restrictive nature.
Connections will be hoping this is sixth time luck for the aptly named The Sixties. This chestnut gelding is a battler and has run well on his last two start and, perhaps, unlucky not to have sneaked a win. Initially, I had doubt about dropping back to the minimum trip. However, this youngster didn't lack speed when narrowly beaten by Uncomplicated at Yarmouth, a fair type at this grade. A step up to 6f should allow him to sit handy and given ample time to finish in style. This looks a prime opportunity.
Whistling Buddy has been placed on both starts to date, beaten at short odds last time at Brighton in a three-horse race. Peter Makin has given this January foal plenty of time since that run. Iit is intriguing to consider whether he suffered an injury that day. On balance, you would have to consider this son of Piccolo was beaten fair and square. However, this race will not take the world of winning. Makin has entered this colt in at least three Stakes races, which suggests a win should be on the cards. The form of those first two starts suggests this bay must be respected and a fair each way bet a respectable odds.
Of the other form horses, many are cheap purchases who have shown little ability.
An outsider who may show more today is Keene's Ponte. John Hills' colt by Avonbridge was a good few lengths behind The Sixties when making his debut at Windsor. In the context of this race a purchase price of £32,000 is expensive. Finishing down the field this brown colt needs to improve but may do just that after a lengthy absence. Hills often sends his better juveniles to race at Windsor on debut and he isn't, generally, a trainer to have them primed. It is encouraging to note this juvenile has been given a Stakes race entry, which catches the eye. At huge odds, he could be the dark horse of the race and may hit the frame.
Another horse which looks next to hopeless but may have a glimmer is Derek Hayd Jones' Cerys. This daughter of Three Valleys finished last and when beaten nearly one hundred lengths. This would seem an impossible task but stranger things have happened. Jones is one trainer who can win at fantastic odds with two-year-olds on their second start. I have seen a number of his juveniles feature a similar profile and leave people speechless. If you want a punt you could do worse than stick a couple of quid on this filly to win a fortune.
Of the debutantes, Complexity stands out. A recent breeze-up purchase at 60,000gns, Charlie Hills' youngster, a son of Multiplex out of a German mare, has been given a Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) entry. This looks a significant pointer in a what is no more than a moderate contest. It is never easy for a horse to win on its racecourse bow and for that reason alone care is needed. The betting is probably the best indicator and if priced 13/2 & less has fair win and place claims. It is interesting why Neil Callan is booked to ride because he has no recent history partnering this stables' juveniles. The entry is a positive but the jockey booking could be a negative. The betting will be the best determinant. If the Gimcrack is on the agenda, this looks a winner waiting to happen.
Of the others, Dawn Catcher has been ready to run for a while and most likely waiting for this better ground. Tony Carroll doesn't have a very good strike rate with his debutantes. However, this daughter of Bertolini has been given a Stakes entry which may indicate promise. Probably best watched today.
Conclusion: A big field but probably no more than a handful of runners worthy of note. The Sixties has the best form on offer and comes here in determined mood. This extra furlong could help, especially on this faster ground. From a low draw he will run a big race although probably priced to chance. Whistling Buddy will appreciate this better ground. Peter Makin has entered this juvenile for a number of Stakes races which suggests he is looking beyond today. His form is fair for this grade and looks the type to bole along. Sanders is a good pilot for this stable and with a couple of fancied favourites may ease to a decent price. He could go well and has each way claims. Complexity is intriguing. Charlie Hills doesn't given Group entries for nothing and this son of Multiplex is an expensive purchase to slip into such a restricted race type. The jockey booking of Callan is a puzzler, which tempers enthusiasm a little but the best indicator will be the betting. If priced 13/2 & less, this breeze-up purchase has sound each way claims. There are a couple of outsiders worth noting. Keene's Pointe looks pretty ordinary on that first effort but could be much better. A relatively expensive purchase, there are signs this colt could run well at fancy odds. Definitely one for a speculative each way punt because it wouldn't be the biggest surprise. Cerys looks hopeless but Derek Hayd Jones has often pulled the rabbit out of the hat. If touching a few hundred to one on the exchanges you could do worse than put a couple of quid on the nose and cross your fingers.
HCE Mentions:
3:15 Bath - New Fforest
A competitive race but Andrew Balding is a canny trainer and attempting stakes class after an ordinary-looking debut suggests a big run is expected today. If priced in single figures I can see this filly going well.
6:10 Doncaster - Ceekay's Girl
Didn't show much ability on debut when second string but should be wiser for that first experience. Worthy of an interest at speculative odds.
