Monday 1 July 2013

6:00 Bath (2nd July) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f 11y on firm going. Nine two-year-olds take part with a fair weight difference between the field, a mix of colts, geldings and fillies, including two debutantes. The restrictive nature of these races means ability is pretty thin on the ground and the majority of the field are moderate at best, while those with an ounce of form still have aspects of weakness. 

Captain Ryan is one of those horses who needs to be handled with care: both jockey and punter.

Peter Makin's gelding is sired by Captain Gerard, out of a moderate sprinting mare, who couldn't get her head in front in a career which spanned thirty-four races. This bay is a bonny sort who was fancied to go well on debut over course and distance but ran as though unfit. However, the betting must have held some significance because he nearly gave favourite backers a heart attack when setting the pace at Goodwood when 50/1. Odds-on backers had time to smile at the finish. The form of that race has been franked a number of times. If achieving that level he has claims. 

The Og Partnership [owners] must have fancied their chances when making a return to Bath, a course where speed is of the essence. Captain Ryan is the type of horse to run full throttle and it was no surprise to see him set the pace against Danfazi who would have most horses struggling for pace. It is difficult to appreciate whether it was the horse or the jockey but Seb Sanders didn't look at his best when pulling and slapping this juvenile down the neck, which magnified the awkwardness. Time may tell it was more Captain Ryan because there is little doubt he is a tricky horse. The biggest concern is whether he can finish his race because the last twice he has tired in the final hundred yards.

Many horses win not because they are the best in a race but because they run through the line - it is a huge advantage, especially in low class. In contrast, a short runner will always need things to fall into place and so often they are either easy winners or poor losers.

It is unlikely any of the opposition will have the pace to stay with this April foal. Another question is whether connections will consider hold-up tactics, endeavouring to finish the race. This often proves a futile tactic.

In my opinion, it is a positive that Steve Drown is back in the saddle. Considering the pros and cons, how do we view this horse as a betting opportunity? I have seen many horses who have been in this mould. Fast. Too fast. Tiring. Where's the finishing line? Many struggle to win. A wide draw is likely to make his jockey press forward and lead. I wouldn't bet each way as he will either win or be prone to finish out of the frame. If betting on the exchanges, it would be wise to place a wager in-running at short odds to cover your stake and then hope Captain Ryan lasts to the line. Whether he will do just that is the gamble.

An intriguing horse.