Wednesday 25 July 2012

2:40 Bath (26th July) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Median Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f 161y on good to firm ground.

A large field, most raced,  of a very restrictive nature. 

Connections will be hoping this is sixth time luck for the aptly named The Sixties. This chestnut gelding is a battler and has run well on his last two start and, perhaps, unlucky not to have sneaked a win. Initially, I had doubt about dropping back to the minimum trip. However, this youngster didn't lack speed when narrowly beaten by Uncomplicated at Yarmouth, a fair type at this grade. A step up to 6f should allow him to sit handy and given ample time to finish in style. This looks a prime opportunity.

Whistling Buddy has been placed on both starts to date, beaten at short odds last time at Brighton in a three-horse race. Peter Makin has given this January foal plenty of time since that run. Iit is intriguing to consider whether he suffered an injury that day. On balance, you would have to consider this son of Piccolo was beaten fair and square. However, this race will not take the world of winning. Makin has entered this colt in at least three Stakes races, which suggests a win should be on the cards. The form of those first two starts suggests this bay must be respected and a fair each way bet a respectable odds.

Of the other form horses, many are cheap purchases who have shown little ability. 

An outsider who may show more today is Keene's Ponte. John Hills' colt by Avonbridge was a good few lengths behind The Sixties when making his debut at Windsor. In the context of this race a purchase price of £32,000 is expensive. Finishing down the field this brown colt needs to improve but may do just that after a lengthy absence. Hills often sends his better juveniles to race at Windsor on debut and he isn't, generally, a trainer to have them primed. It is encouraging to note this juvenile has been given a Stakes race entry, which catches the eye. At huge odds, he could be the dark horse of the race and may hit the frame.

Another horse which looks next to hopeless but may have a glimmer is Derek Hayd Jones' Cerys. This daughter of Three Valleys finished last and when beaten nearly one hundred lengths. This would seem an impossible task but stranger things have happened. Jones is one trainer who can win at fantastic odds with two-year-olds on their second start. I have seen a number of his juveniles feature a similar profile and leave people speechless.  If you want a punt you could do worse than stick a couple of quid on this filly to win a fortune. 

Of the debutantes, Complexity stands out. A recent breeze-up purchase at 60,000gns, Charlie Hills' youngster, a son of Multiplex out of a German mare, has been given a Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) entry. This looks a significant pointer in a what is no more than a moderate contest. It is never easy for a horse to win on its racecourse bow and for that reason alone care is needed. The betting is probably the best indicator and if priced 13/2 & less has fair win and place claims. It is interesting why Neil Callan is booked to ride because he has no recent history partnering this stables' juveniles. The entry is a positive but the jockey booking could be a negative. The betting will be the best determinant. If the Gimcrack is on the agenda, this looks a winner waiting to happen.

Of the others, Dawn Catcher has been ready to run for a while and most likely waiting for this better ground. Tony Carroll doesn't have a very good strike rate with his debutantes. However, this daughter of Bertolini has been given a Stakes entry which may indicate promise. Probably best watched today.

Conclusion: A big field but probably no more than a handful of runners worthy of note. The Sixties has the best form on offer and comes here in determined mood. This extra furlong could help, especially on this faster ground. From a low draw he will run a big race although probably priced to chance. Whistling Buddy will appreciate this better ground. Peter Makin has entered this juvenile for a number of Stakes races which suggests he is looking beyond today. His form is fair for this grade and looks the type to bole along. Sanders is a good pilot for this stable and with a couple of fancied favourites may ease to a decent price. He could go well and has each way claims. Complexity is intriguing. Charlie Hills doesn't given Group entries for nothing and this son of Multiplex is an expensive purchase to slip into such a restricted race type. The jockey booking of Callan is a puzzler, which tempers enthusiasm a little but the best indicator will be the betting. If priced 13/2 & less, this breeze-up purchase has sound each way claims. There are a couple of outsiders worth noting. Keene's Pointe looks pretty ordinary on that first effort but could be much better. A relatively expensive purchase, there are signs this colt could run well at fancy odds. Definitely one for a speculative each way punt because it wouldn't be the biggest surprise. Cerys looks hopeless but Derek Hayd Jones has often pulled the rabbit out of the hat. If touching a few hundred to one on the exchanges you could do worse than put a couple of quid on the nose and cross your fingers. 

HCE Mentions: 

3:15 Bath - New Fforest 

A competitive race but Andrew Balding is a canny trainer and attempting stakes class after an ordinary-looking debut suggests a big run is expected today. If priced in single figures I can see this filly going well.

6:10 Doncaster - Ceekay's Girl 

Didn't show much ability on debut when second string but should be wiser for that first experience. Worthy of an interest at speculative odds.