Thursday 18 April 2013

5:00 Bath (19th April) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 5f 11y on good to soft ground. Sixteen two-year-olds take part - a mix of colts & fillies - predominantly debutantes with a handful of horses with experience.  Beau Nash sets the standard of those to have raced. This bay colt, a son of Dandy Man, is a good-looking horse and £25,000 yearling buy. He was ridden with confidence, after being held up off the pace, and looked to put down a winning challenge only to be outstayed by Master Carpenter, who could well be a fair type. The form has been franked with the third, fifth & seventh winning on their next start. The major contender although one or two debutantes are of interest. 

Ed McMahon is a superb trainer and his early two-year-olds often prove to be some of his best horses. This is especially true of those owned by John Fretwell. He bought Capitulate ,this son of Avonbridge, for £18,000 at the yearling sales. The stable went close with their first juvenile at Beverley and they have a good strike rate here. In fact, this owner's debutantes feature a 40% place rate at any price, which raises significantly when priced 8/1 & less SP. A number of their juveniles at this course have been substantially backed. If priced at fancy odds on the exchanges it could pay to bet and hope a gamble ensues. 

Another trainer who comes into his own at this course is Clive Cox. Beldale Memory is a daughter of Camacho and a cheap purchase at £8,000. The betting is key. If priced 10/1 & less the stable have an outstanding place rate at this course with their debutantes.

El Duque looked to be going the right way for Bill Turner after running well on debut. However, he disappointed next start at Southwell. The fibresand surface doesn't suit all horses and it could be the case he simply didn't enjoy that day at the races. There is one thing we can be sure, he needs an excuse and improvement to come. If weak in the betting I would take a watching brief.

Mick Channon does well at this track and his horses can win on their racecourse bow. Sartori has fair win and place claims if priced 13/2 & less. Very few of their horses win if weak in the betting.

Rush, a home bred filly trained but Paul Cole, is another who is best judged by the betting. If priced 8/1 and less this horse have win and place claims.

It is interesting to follow the changing fortunes of trainers big and small, especially those on the rise. That is very much the case for Ron Harris' two-year-olds this season which have been in sparkling form. Fantasy Justifier was bought by the trainer for 20,000euros and fancied on the exchanges [Thursday, evening]. With a couple of talented juveniles in his string he should have a guide to where this youngster stands and if backed it would bring added confidence.

Money for Caledonia Laird could be significant.

Conclusion: Experience has proven the key to so many two-year-old winners this season and Beau Nash hails from a stable who know how to win. This good-looking colt is likely to lead many of these a merry dance and take some beating. Ed McMahon is a superb trainer and that added to the ownership of John Fretwell makes me take note of Capitulate. The stable have a good place rate with all debut runners irrespective of price. Early season horses are often their best and if backed it would be a sign of confidence. He could hit the frame. The betting is key to the chances of Sartori, Rush & Beldale Memory. All have claims if priced 8/1 & less. Money for Fantasy Justifier would be a sign of confidence with the stable youngsters going well.

Other 2yo races:

3:40 Newbury