6:10 Musselburgh Racing Tips (31st July) IRISH STALLIONS FARMS EBF MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

I'll keep this brief as I think I'm slowly going mad... Far too busy. One horse is worth noting here and that is Black Hambleton. Bryan Smart hasn't been engulfed with juveniles this season, compared with past, but he has a couple of talents with King Robert and Kentuckyconnection gearing up to race at Group level. This bay colt, a son of Dick Turpin, ran well enough on soft ground on debut at Hamilton behind War Queen. This February foal is likely to improve for that first start and appreciate this step up to 7f. The betting is very important here and I would take a watching brief if not priced 13/2 & less SP. I'm not saying he cannot win outside that guide but it would temper my enthusiasm. If fitting this criteria he should have good win and place claims. With only eight runners it could be sod's law one of two drop out to hinder three places. Even if there are two places I would still bet (no worries if you are betting on the exchanges). 

7:10 Bath - A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f 161y on good to firm going. Jamie Osborne is always worth noting with his two-year-olds on their second start and My Best Song should be primed today. This American bred daughter of Songandprayer was a cheap buy, a $12,000 yearling. She ran behind the impressive Galileo Gold on debut at Salisbury. The winner is a talent who won the Vintage Stakes (group 2) at Glorious Goodwood the other day for new owners Al Shaqab Racing Ltd. My Best Song was eclipsed by one of today's runners Zeeoneandonly who certainly has pace to burn. She has a wide draw but likely to go to the front. My Best Song is likely to improve after an absence of over fifty days. The betting is very important. I would give this youngster decent each-way claims if priced 13/2 & less. If outside this guide, best watched.  

Black Hambleton 6th (didn't run race - better will be seen next time out)
My Best Song 9/2 2nd 

3:55 Musselburgh Racing Tips (5th April) TOTEPOOLLIVEINFO.COM MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f on soft ground. This is a restricted race type which can limit the standard of individuals although this shouldn't be taken as fact. Five runners: two colts and three fillies. 

Zephyr Breeze is the only two-year-old with form. This son of Piccolo finished a respectable 4th when competing in the Scottish Brocklesby over course and distance. Considering Noel Wilson's bay raced on Friday it is unlikely he will take this engagement. 

Four debutantes hail from talented trainers. 

Richard Fahey has been quiet this early part of the season but known as a handler who not only trains a large string of juveniles but someone who can train them to win on their racecourse bow. Powerallied is a son of Camacho out of a twice-winning mare. This bay colt isn't two until the end of the month. He was purchased as a yearling for £16,000 at the Doncaster Silver Sale 2014.The stable have one of the better strike rates from all trainers and deserves respect. It is worth noting that this was one of three horses Fahey entered for the Brocklesby Stakes (Doncaster). This could well prove to be a sign of confidence. On breeding this horse may appreciate further so testing ground may be a plus although soft ground is never good news when betting at short odds unless you know it favours. Obviously with no form, it is best to take a watching brief. 

Arize hails from David Brown's stable, who introduced a potentially smart two-year-old to win the Scottish Brocklesby in Tribesman owned by John Fretwell. This bay filly is sired by Approve out of an unraced mare. She was purchased at the yearling sales for 12,000GNS by Peter Onslow (breeder). Owner Mrs Sandra Brown hasn't had a horse in training since 1992. David Brown can train debut winners, especially when priced 13/2 & less. However, with such a small field this betting guide is open to question. 

Bryan Smart has his first two-year-old runner of the season. Ayresome Angel is an Irish bred chestnut filly sired by Captain Gerard out of an unraced mare. She was purchased by the trainer as a yearling for 10,000GNS. Smart can win with debutantes although most go better on their second start.

The oldest horse in the field is Baby Ballerina, a February foal. This daughter of Kheleyf is out of a poor mare and purchased by Brian Ellison Racing Ltd for 7,000GNS at the yearling sales. Ellison can train debut winners although compared with the likes of Fahey, Brown & Smart less so. I would take a watching brief.    

Conclusion: This race type means most horses here are cheap buys. There are no hard and fast rules, but generally these restricted races feature limited two-year-olds. Zephyr Breeze would hold the aces if racing but that look very unlikely after such a short time since racing over course and distance. The debutantes hail from stables who can win with juveniles on their racecourse bow. On statistics Powerallied is most likely and being entered for the Brocklesby Stakes could well be a significant pointer. However, Arize and Ayresome Angel will be in their best betting guides simply because this is a small field which is rather conflicting. Baby Ballerina is most likely to need the race. The combination of debutantes on soft ground I'd have to take a watching brief. 

6:45 Musselburgh (1st August) WILKINSON & ASSOCIATES NURSERY HANDICAP (CLASS 6)

A 0-65 rated handicap. Eight two-year-olds racing over 5f on good to firm ground. By all accounts an average race. One horse makes appeal as a potential in-running lay bet, perhaps at big odds-on. 

On Appro has run five times, placed third on one occasion. Tim Easterby's bay daughter of Approve races in the familiar silks of Habton Farms. Make no mistake this filly is fast over four furlongs. In fact, she would have gone close to winning on a few occasions if such a distance was available in this country. This bay showed such pace last start when contesting a claiming race at Catterick over the minimum trip. Drifting hugely on the exchanges just before the off, touching about 40/1, before something of a late punt. Those backers were probably aware she would hit the front and have the opposition struggling to keep tabs. That is, until the final furlong, where she tired dramatically in the closing stages. 

There is a fair chance those race tactic will be employed at Musselburgh and touch short odds in-running. I would be tempted to lay this horse in-running at 1.5 (1/2on) if not much shorter. If this doesn't go to plan then you have nothing to lose but if tearing off in front then the bet could easily be laid. There is always the chance the horse could win although I feel that is unlikely. However, if laid in running at huge odds on there is little to be lost. Certainly worth an interest which could return a potentially big win.

1:50 Musselburgh (14th June) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f on good to firm ground. Twelve runners take part in this restricted race type. Eight juveniles have race experience and a few with respectable form at this grade. A high draw could be an advantage.

Memory Styx has been kept busy by Mick Channon. This grey filly may have run six times to date but she is a talented, determined horse with creditable form. By all accounts this daughter of Clodovil has simply been unlucky to bump into a few talented juveniles and deserving of a victory. The problem is not assessing her level of ability but fearing that one of these races she will regress. Perhaps at relatively short odds - against a few form horses - it would be sensible to take a watching brief. However, if those placed efforts are taken by layers as an indicator that she will always be the bridesmaid, speculative odds could be tempting as she gives her all and has each way claims. 

Alpine Flower may have been huge odds on debut but she impressed. This daughter of Intense Feeling must have done plenty of work on the gallops because she looked professional and knuckled down in the closing stages to fight for second place. The winner was fancied on debut and very well backed that day, while the third has finished behind a few well-touted horses. I can imagine Tim Easterby has plans for this £3,000 yearling purchase [looks an exceptional buy] and from a high draw she must hit the frame. 

Michael Dods is a trainer who often slips under the radar and his debutantes are neglected at your peril. That was certainly the case for *Mecca's Angel who ran a stormer at Thirsk. Backers much have cursed that such a fine display resulted in a loss of not just a short neck, but worse still, out of the first three placings [4th]. In many regards, this daughter of Dark Angel was doing her best work at the line and could well have prevailed in a stride or two. With improvement to come, this looks another contender to add to the mix.

After showing ability on her first start, Kirtling Belle was made favourite when stepping up to 6f at Redcar. That may have been a pretty restricted race type but it was far from a weak race, especially by the general course standard, which can be limited at times. A good few punters were left wondering what happened to finish out of the frame. However, the extra furlong didn't seem to do her any favours and the competition a touch too hot. This drop back to the minimum trip should see this February foal finish her race. It is difficult to get a handle on her form which may leave something to find with a couple of these. If touching speculative odds I could understand her followers taking the plunge once more. 

Classical Diva was well supported on her racecourse bow and done little wrong when second to outsider Sandman's Girl. Declan Carroll is a canny trainer and stable gambles rarely go astray. She looked ready for action but may need to progress a few lengths after just shading Danfazi, who has a hint of ability. 

On a form line with Danfazi, *Abisko has very similar claims to the above mentioned. Brian Ellison must hold her is some regard because this chestnut filly compete at Listed class second start. Although an outsider, an awkward start put pay to any hopes and that race is probably best ignored. 

The other form horses need to improve and best watched.

Four debutantes face a stiff task against a number of fair juveniles and all have relatively low draws which makes life difficult. The betting is the best guide. If priced 13/2 & less it would be a sign of confidence [unlikely].

Conclusion: This isn't a race for the faint hearted because this looks a tough contest for the grade. The winner will be a fair two-year-old for this race type. A number of trainers would have considered this an easy task and will be left scratching their head when previewing these the battle-hardened juveniles. The form horses have the edge and it would take a smart debutante to win. I wouldn't be tempted to bet at relatively short prices because it may not yield value. Memory Styx, Alpine Flower, Mecca's Angel & Kirtling Belle would be at the top of my list. Alpine Flower has the potential to be a fair juvenile although she was pretty fit on debut, so it may be a mistake to expect ample improvement. However, that form may be strong enough and I would be surprised if Easterby's charge isn't placed with a fighting chance of the win. If touching speculative prices I would be tempted to take the brave man's wager and back Memory Styx each way. Her form is solid and deserving of a win. After six races punters will be on the verge of giving up the ghost [which is expected] but a few of those efforts have proven form, better than many will give credit. On the other side of the coin, there is a fear that any moment she will regress with one hard race too many. For that reason it is advisable to only bet at speculative odds. Mecca's Angel and Kirtling Belle have claims, the former having the potential to improve. 


*NR

2:30 Musselburgh (3rd May) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f on good ground. Six colts take part, three raced. David Brown is a class trainer of two-year-olds and Captain Midnight was backed to favouritism for his debut at Beverley. This son of Bushranger was seriously backed from quite big prices and connections must have been confident of a big run. In truth, he done little wrong finishing third. Many will doubt the form of that race simply because a 40/1 outsider proved victorious. However, there seemed no fluke about the win, while the fourth has run a fair race next start. That was an auction maiden so by race type alone this is a step up in grade. From a statistical point of view this stable feature a greater strike rate with their fancied debutantes than those second time out. That suggests their horses are primed on that first start and in recent years they have attained fair place claims but struggle to win next start.


Muspelhiem & Withernsea contested the same race at Ripon when making their debut over the minimum trip. The former trained by Ann Duffield may have been a speculative price but he ran well to finish runner-up to Blithe Spirit. The winner is trained by Eric Alston who himself said it was his first two-year-old winner in over five years. She won with something in hand but I have to wonder if experience and a low rail draw gave a big advantage. The third placed horse has run a fair race next start without being too impressive. 

Withernsea was sent off favoruite and related to a number of fair siblings including Star Rover & Jamesway. This son of Dark Angel cost 38,000gns and hails from Richard Fahey's stable which has hit form. This attractive bay lost all chance with a terribly slow start. He was adrift by a number of lengths and by all accounts had little hope of winning thereafter. It was to his credit he made pleasing headway and at one point looked to be battling for victory. However, his effort petered out in the final furlong but that was no great loss. Withernsea has a very good chance of reversing the form with Muspelhiem if starting on level terms.

Mark Johnston field two colts in Lyn Valley and Tanseeb. 

On the tissue prices Lyn Valley is favourite for this race which surprises me. This January foal is well bred but he was entered to run at Pontefract the other day and very weak in the betting before being withdrawn. Perhaps that marked drift in the betting was due to someone knowing he wouldn't take part or simply that this son of Shamardal was seemingly second string to the favourite.  I wouldn't back this horse early on the exchanges because it wouldn't surprise me to to learn he is considered inferior to Tanseeb. That may be completely wrong and if the more fancied in the betting by the time of the off he could prove the better. I'm simply suggesting it may pay to be cautious. Also, on breeding, a stiffer test looks more suiting. 

Tanseed races in the Hamdan Al Maktoum silks and a costly yearling buy at 90,000gns. This son of Royal Applause is out of a winning mare. I find Johnston's debutantes difficult to judge. A couple of favourites have let themselves down by tardy starts and this happens all too often for my liking and why a watching brief is advised. The only exception is if they are short-priced favourites. 

Bryan Smart had a nice winner with Lexington Rose at Ripon and his other juvenile runner done nothing wrong when finishing second. He had a poor string of two-year-old last season but if these two are anything to go by he will go well this season. Disclosure is a relatively cheap yearling and may appreciate further in time. The stable have fair win and place claims with their fancied debutantes although they are better horses second start.

Conclusion: A tricky race to judge. Captain Midnight sets the standard on form and likely to make that experience count. He is the horse to beat but the stable don't feature the most impressive strike rate with their juveniles on second start, which slightly tempers enthusiasm. Withernsea has a fighting chance of beating Mispelheim. He had a mountain to climb after a slow start on debut and this well bred youngster would be my selection. The Johnston pair are tricky to assess. I would be very careful if considering betting Lyn Valley. He is priced tissue favourite but I think this is a red herring and likely to drift to the extreme. Tanseeb seems weak in the betting on the exchanges but may be backed if punters feel he is first string. I don't like betting Johnston's youngsters on debut and would take a watching brief. Disclosure has claims if priced 13/2 &  less sp. Similarly, he is weak on the exchanges. I would tip Captain Midnight and Withernsea but at relatively short prices I would watch and learn. 

1:50 Musselburgh (Saturday 30th March) Free Horse Racing Tips

Toteplacepot Racing's Favourite Bet Conditions Stakes over 5f on good to soft ground. Seven two-year-olds compete, three raced, including one winner, two fillies against the boys. Mick's Yer Man made an impressive winning debut in the Brocklesby on the first day of the Flat turf season. By all accounts that was a solid, professional performance and even with a small penalty there could be more to come. Bill Turner has a decent string of juveniles and this colt could well be one of his better winners. Experience can be a huge advantage and with a proven level of ability he sets a stiff task for all opponents. This son of Bahamian Bounty could well be a fair juvenile. 

The Brocklesby was a starting point for another of today's runners *Donny Rover. This son of Excellent Art is owned by Willie McKay, who dug deep to buy this bay colt from the yearling sales for 95,000euros. The mare was Listed-placed, although enjoyed a trip. Charles Smith trains a number of horses for McKay and this is an intriguing sort. There was a good word for this juveniles at Doncaster but all chance had gone with a tardy start. Donny Rover is an attractive colt who could improve significantly on his disappointing 6th when left trailing behind Mick's Yer Man. I would expect to see a much better performance today.

Intense Feeling is the only other horse with experience. This daughter of Intense Focus was a cheap yearling purchase and owned by Mrs Evans. She was well backed on debut at Lingfield and showed good pace until tiring in the latter stages. The winner won in comfortable style and the 5th, Outback Lover, won next start. Although this brown filly has valuable experience I would have concerns this will be a tough task. It is a concern to see her entered for a Selling Stakes. Others make more appeal.

The debutantes will need to be primed and pretty smart juveniles to win. However, it is worth noting that Stakes races often spring a surprise or too. For many trainers this race type it is a sign they fancy their chances. Even with such optimism this looks a competitive heat for their racecourse bow.

Lilo Lil was a cheap purchase and part owned by trainer Griffiths. Best watched.

The debutantes of most note hail from leading two-year-old stables. Scargill, Skye's The Limit & Vine De Nada are worthy of respect.

Skye's The Limit is a chestnut colt sired by Pastoral Pursuits. He cost 32,000gns at the yearling sales. The stable have a very good strike rate at the course although David Nolan could be considered a negative jockey booking. With so many meetings taking place it could be the case the stable are pressed for riders and he may ride this youngster on the gallops. This stable can prime a debutante and they often run big races. As they trained Lord Clyde to finish third in the Brocklesby, Fahey may have a line to Mick's Yer Man.  One of the more likelier types.

Mark Johnston is a superb trainer although I find his debutante exceptionally difficult to call. As I have mentioned many times before, they fall into two groups; easy winners or disappointments. Vine De Nada is a relatively cheap purchase at 13,000gns. The mare won on debut when trained by Ed Dunlop, owned by Cheveley Park Stud, the breeder of this youngster. The stable's juveniles are often slow to come to hand and all too frequently struggle with a slow start. I would rather watch and learn.

Scargill is an early foal, being born in February, so could be forward. He looks to be  a home bred by the versatile stallion Sixties Icon, who Mick Channon done so well with last season. The stable's juveniles can win on debut. The shorter the price the better, so money would be encouraging. Even with this in mind, the stable have few debutante winners priced over 11/2. 

Conclusion: Mick's Yer Man won the Brocklesby in some style and even with a small penalty must take some beating. I would never be tempted to back at short odds as Stakes races can be a can of worms. However, I would be surprised if he doesn't win. Of the rest, I would expect a much improved performance from Donny Rover. He is difficult to assess but I can see a bold show from this youngster. I would take a watching brief with Vine De Nada. Scargill is another to watch if weak in the market. Skye's The Limit has claims but another who needs to be primed to deprive Turner's winner his second victory.

*NR

Take a look at 1:45 Kempton race analysis from We Go Racing  


Richard Fahey - 2yo Talk

Two-Year-Olds

Lord Clyde
He ran in the Brocklesby and shaped well in third. I was delighted with him - he looked like a hairy goat and hated the ground. I'll just give him a little break now.

We have a lot of exciting juveniles to look forward to. Kindanyce and Skye's The Limit are among the more forward and could run at Kempton and Musselburgh this weekend. The latter is quite nice but this wouldn't be his track. If he was able to win over five there he's a decent horse.

Dutch Courage is a filly I like. She hasn't done anything serious but does everything right and looks one to look forward to for Cheveley Park Stud who are new owners in the yard. I also have to pass on a positive word for Kalahari Kingdom. He's a very nice son of Footstepsinthesand.

We'll have a few runners in the early maidens but in general we have more late-maturing types this season who will progress with time. It's very early days with them all.