Monday, 25 April 2011
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3:00 Warwick (25th April) - Result
A selling stakes race over this flying 5f.
Experience counts for a lot at Warwick - a fast start is often the difference between winning and losing. On the contrary, a slow start makes this a mountain to climb. For that reason the debutantes lose favour here.
There are a collection of form horses. Van Go Go won last time out at Redcar after finishing second on debut. Dascombe gave a brief about this filly after her recent win and said she was a 'now horse'. This filly has a penalty for that success but this daughter of Dutch Art has a fair level of speed and a determined sort. By all accounts this is a slight drop in class and a proven juvenile is a very good starting point in such lowly races. The key point you want in a horse racing at plating level is an individual who can run to the line. Many will show speed for four furlong then cry enough - Van Go Go will take some beating.
Of the rest, *Sea Poet is quite an attractive colt for this grade. Haynes' youngster had no chance after a slow start at Folkestone and ran with more elan at Bath. On the face of it that looked quite encouraging. However, that form could well be moderate for those behind the winner. This half-brother to Pycian may have place claims.
The two most likely debutantes are I'm Talking and She's Cool Too. Both hail from trainers who can win with juveniles on their racecourse bow. However, they will need to be tuned-up to win.
The former, trained by David Evans, may have stronger claims if heavily supported because the stable have a form line with Van Go Go through Middleton Flyer. Many of their two-year-olds have been for racecourse gallops, which is a plus. On balance, I would favour Van Go Go. It is best to let juveniles prove they have ability rather than imagine at this level.
She's Too Cool comes from an owner (E A Brook) who does very well with Bill Turner. In fact he has had at least a couple of Brocklesby winners. Turner can get his juveniles ready for their debut but they can also be rather hit and miss.
Van Go Go is a proven winner and most of these will struggle to achieve that goal. Experience is key at Warwick with many of these being outpaced from the start. The others will show speed till four furlongs before dropping away. Dascombe's two-year-old will take some stopping.
*NR
Experience counts for a lot at Warwick - a fast start is often the difference between winning and losing. On the contrary, a slow start makes this a mountain to climb. For that reason the debutantes lose favour here.
There are a collection of form horses. Van Go Go won last time out at Redcar after finishing second on debut. Dascombe gave a brief about this filly after her recent win and said she was a 'now horse'. This filly has a penalty for that success but this daughter of Dutch Art has a fair level of speed and a determined sort. By all accounts this is a slight drop in class and a proven juvenile is a very good starting point in such lowly races. The key point you want in a horse racing at plating level is an individual who can run to the line. Many will show speed for four furlong then cry enough - Van Go Go will take some beating.
Of the rest, *Sea Poet is quite an attractive colt for this grade. Haynes' youngster had no chance after a slow start at Folkestone and ran with more elan at Bath. On the face of it that looked quite encouraging. However, that form could well be moderate for those behind the winner. This half-brother to Pycian may have place claims.
The two most likely debutantes are I'm Talking and She's Cool Too. Both hail from trainers who can win with juveniles on their racecourse bow. However, they will need to be tuned-up to win.
The former, trained by David Evans, may have stronger claims if heavily supported because the stable have a form line with Van Go Go through Middleton Flyer. Many of their two-year-olds have been for racecourse gallops, which is a plus. On balance, I would favour Van Go Go. It is best to let juveniles prove they have ability rather than imagine at this level.
She's Too Cool comes from an owner (E A Brook) who does very well with Bill Turner. In fact he has had at least a couple of Brocklesby winners. Turner can get his juveniles ready for their debut but they can also be rather hit and miss.
Van Go Go is a proven winner and most of these will struggle to achieve that goal. Experience is key at Warwick with many of these being outpaced from the start. The others will show speed till four furlongs before dropping away. Dascombe's two-year-old will take some stopping.
*NR
Sunday, 24 April 2011
50/1 (Backed to 25/1) Free Book Prize: Born To Punt by Steve Palmer
Steve Palmer is that rare commodity, a journalist with a huge and very loyal following for his regular columns in the "Racing Post". His many thousands of fans enjoy his idiosyncratic and amusing interpretation of his own and others betting activities as well as life in general. Where others see pain and misery Steve inevitably sees a unique and amusing angle. "Born to Punt" brings the best of Palmer's often hilarious anecdotes and stories together under one roof for the first time. These stories frequently involve the hideous misfortune and sometime joy which befalls the many of millions of punters who regularly bet each week.
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Oh dear, I thought there would be plenty of interest in a chance to win a book for FREE. But no, it seems to have fallen upon blind eyes. I have lowered the number of comments as perhaps 50 put people off. I can't quite understand why people don't take an interest because if I happened to stumble across a blog that gave prizes away I would jump at the chance. Never mind - if I don't get to this lower number I will keep it for myself.
HCE loves to give things away. Books. Well, book! This book offer is going to be used a barometer of our readership. This is a prize draw but with a difference. 25 Readers (Unique users names) need to leave a comment saying why you like HCE for Born To Punt to fall off the shelf and into one lucky reader's hands. This is a collective goal. Tell your mates, Face book pals, that bloke who props up the bar at your local, even give your old gran a call.
Paul Cole Blog Update: Leaning Towards the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches for Rimth!
Lilly Again who has been bought by Dr Marwan Koukash who was unsuited by the downhill at Newmarket is heading for the Sporting Bet Micheal Seely Memorial at York. Cheherazad who ran so promisingly at Newbury is provisionally running in the 7 furlongs maiden fillies at Chester, the track would not be ideal, she is a big filly but the ground would suit. Flashbang was unsuited by the fiirm ground at Newmarket could well contest the maiden fillies at Kempton where the surface should suit he. Serial Sinner who has come out of her Windsor race well will probably run in the mile maiden stakes at Kempton which has probably got some of the best ground around at the moment. Vicona who ran so well at Newbury will contest the maiden filies at Bath on thursday. Moynahan who stays in training is coming on extremely well. We are very pleased with Red Courtiers run at Newbury some good to soft ground over a mile and a half would suit. We are very pleased the way Silver Heels has come out of his race at Windsor, he put in a very good performance considering he was not wound up. Commisar was never at the races at Newbury the penny failed to drop but he sill ran creditable, he could well contest the Makfi Future Stars maiden at Newmarket on Sunday. Although we are slightly down on two year olds we are very pleased by the way they are shaping up. Royal Blush is pencilled for York where we expect to have plenty of runners.
Comments:
To me the National solution seems fairly simple reduce the field to thirty taking the ten lesser lights out and removing the traps i.e the drops behind the fences which catches the horses out.
Regarding the wip, it is essential for use in races but should not be used to punish the horses, the vision of tired jumpers giving there all being thrashed is the most unsightly spectacle in racing.
Cockney Fire strikes at Leicester
An Easy Shift for Factory Time in Bath Maiden
Things seem to look good for our two year olds in 2011 as our third juvenile win of the season and our second winner on debut came in the form of Factory Time at Bath.
The son of first season sire Baltic King made light work of his opponents in taking the median auction maiden last night, travelling nicely throughout and picking up to win by two lengths under Chris Catlin.
This victory maintains Jaber Abdullah's 100% record with his two year olds this season (OK, so he's only had two runners!), but it was the nature of his victory that made Mick smile.
"He's a smasher - he's a six furlong horse already, but I had no qualms about sending him this early over five. Chris couldn't pull him up and he'll improve hugely for that experience. He was up against two with previous experience which is always a boost and he has that touch of class.
"Regardless of how far they might need in time, if a horse has quality, he should win over the shortest trip.
"He's a big horse who can only get better."
The son of first season sire Baltic King made light work of his opponents in taking the median auction maiden last night, travelling nicely throughout and picking up to win by two lengths under Chris Catlin.
"He's a smasher - he's a six furlong horse already, but I had no qualms about sending him this early over five. Chris couldn't pull him up and he'll improve hugely for that experience. He was up against two with previous experience which is always a boost and he has that touch of class.
"Regardless of how far they might need in time, if a horse has quality, he should win over the shortest trip.
"He's a big horse who can only get better."
Saturday, 23 April 2011
2:30 Musselburgh (23rd April) - Result
An EBF maiden over 5f for colts and fillies.
Quite good prize money on offer with £5,181 up for grabs.
Alejandro is the horse to beat after running a clear second to the talented Queen's Revenge. Fahey's colt done little wrong on debut - a determined type who will make the most of that initial experience. A good-looking son of Dark Angel, this professional youngster holds Almond Branches and Kodiac King.
Richard Hannon makes a rare journey to Musselburgh, which may be a significant factor to chances of Mr Majeika. Owner, Dougie McKay had My Son Max win at today's Nottingham meeting this time last year and this 55,000euro purchase has been entered to run in a stakes race which is a sign of confidence. It would take a fair performance to beat Alejandro on debut but this colt is one for the shortlist.
Drummoyn has a couple of noteworthy engagements including the Phoenix Stakes (Group 1). Not best drawn in stall one, Johnston's better juveniles usually start to race in May. The betting is the best guide to this colts chances. At present, he is quite weak on the exchanges and if priced over 7/1 has no more than an average win rate on debut. A trainer who has less and less natural 5f sprint juveniles, this youngster may be better over further and a horse I would rather watch today.
Alejandro will be hard to beat.
HCE: ''Alejandro was pressed at the furlong pole but ran on well to beat Almond Branches.''
Quite good prize money on offer with £5,181 up for grabs.
Alejandro is the horse to beat after running a clear second to the talented Queen's Revenge. Fahey's colt done little wrong on debut - a determined type who will make the most of that initial experience. A good-looking son of Dark Angel, this professional youngster holds Almond Branches and Kodiac King.
Richard Hannon makes a rare journey to Musselburgh, which may be a significant factor to chances of Mr Majeika. Owner, Dougie McKay had My Son Max win at today's Nottingham meeting this time last year and this 55,000euro purchase has been entered to run in a stakes race which is a sign of confidence. It would take a fair performance to beat Alejandro on debut but this colt is one for the shortlist.
Drummoyn has a couple of noteworthy engagements including the Phoenix Stakes (Group 1). Not best drawn in stall one, Johnston's better juveniles usually start to race in May. The betting is the best guide to this colts chances. At present, he is quite weak on the exchanges and if priced over 7/1 has no more than an average win rate on debut. A trainer who has less and less natural 5f sprint juveniles, this youngster may be better over further and a horse I would rather watch today.
Alejandro will be hard to beat.
HCE: ''Alejandro was pressed at the furlong pole but ran on well to beat Almond Branches.''
Thursday, 21 April 2011
2:30 Folkestone (21st April) - Result
An EBF Maiden over 5f for colts & fillies.
Chillie Billie was given a tall order on debut when competing at stakes level. What caught the attention that day was the glowing terms used by McEntee in describing the progress of this chestnut cold when talking on RUK. Far from shirking the challenge of racing previous winners, he was bullish about this youngsters chances. Chillie Billie was given a considerate introduction by Fallon (who had been to ride this son of Piccolo on the gallops) and he showed potential. Fallon didn't resort to using the whip at Newmarket and McEntee seemed convinced he had a winner waiting to happen. With that initial experience, Chillie Billie has strong claims.
David Evans has already had a fair number of juveniles race this season. He is probably surprised that Choice Of Remark is still a maiden after being fancied on both his starts. A relatively cheap colt at 13,000euros, this son of Choisir is not the biggest but a gutsy sort who doesn't lack for trying. Both starts have shown ability although it is still slightly difficult to assess this runner. Clearly being beaten last time out at stakes level in a photo finish should speak well in what, on class, should be an easier race. However, there is a concern this race may in fact be stronger. Choice Of Remark beat Triggerlo by a couple of lengths and then he went on to finish a creditable second in a restricted event. The winner was trained by one of David Evans two-year-olds. There is little doubt this colt has an element of ability - the task is trying to work out whether it is enough to win today's race. Evans representative must have fair place claims but may find one or two too good. However, this youngster doesn't look the type to go down without a fight.
Mick Channon has been sending out a few two-year-old winners - a few on debut. Gatepost is a 20,000 euro purchase for Dr Marwan Koukash. It should be noted that this colt has been given a stakes race entry, which is a sign of encouragement. There has been support for this youngster on the exchanges and Channon should have a line with Choice Of Remark. The starting price will be the best indicator of this colts chances and if heavily backed it would bring about more confidence. However, Channon features only a fair win rate with his juveniles priced 13/2 & less on debut and many improve with racing.
Of the others, Karuga is likely to be on many people's shortlist. Hannon has an impressive strike race on debut with his juveniles priced 11/4 & less. However, there is a slight concern about this juvenile. On the early declarations Richard Hughes was booked to ride, now Moore is in the saddle. It may be something and nothing but Hughes doesn't have any rides today and you have to consider if this daughter of Kyllachy was such a strong chance why he wouldn't take this ride. Time will tell. However, that point doesn't inspire confidence.
Two horses that may go well at a price are Night Angel and Samasana.
Night Angel was beaten a long way by Choice Of Remark on debut. On form this filly looks to have little chance but Millman is one of those trainers that you can never discount, especially juveniles on their second start. It wouldn't be a surprise to see a much improved performance today.
Samasana is another to note as Ian Woods has given this filly a stakes race entry. The downside is that the trainer has a poor win rate on debut, which suggests their horses improve with racing. They generally go well on their second start and that tempers enthusiasm.
HCE: ''Gatepost was very well backed - 7/1 was available on Betfair early - and this didn't relent as the money continued to backed to 15/8 second favourite at the off. Clearly connection were expecting something special and this attractive colt always looked to be going well. The second, Bayleyf, ran on well after being outpaced at the furlong pole. Best's juveniles often improve for the run and likely to go well on his next start. Choice Of Remark showed his experience if not going a touch too fast. He rallied at the finish and will find a small race as long as he doesn't regress. Karuga showed good speed until tiring in the final furlong while Chillie Billie was a touch keen and found trouble in running. He is worth a second chance because this seemed too bad to be true.''
Chillie Billie was given a tall order on debut when competing at stakes level. What caught the attention that day was the glowing terms used by McEntee in describing the progress of this chestnut cold when talking on RUK. Far from shirking the challenge of racing previous winners, he was bullish about this youngsters chances. Chillie Billie was given a considerate introduction by Fallon (who had been to ride this son of Piccolo on the gallops) and he showed potential. Fallon didn't resort to using the whip at Newmarket and McEntee seemed convinced he had a winner waiting to happen. With that initial experience, Chillie Billie has strong claims.
David Evans has already had a fair number of juveniles race this season. He is probably surprised that Choice Of Remark is still a maiden after being fancied on both his starts. A relatively cheap colt at 13,000euros, this son of Choisir is not the biggest but a gutsy sort who doesn't lack for trying. Both starts have shown ability although it is still slightly difficult to assess this runner. Clearly being beaten last time out at stakes level in a photo finish should speak well in what, on class, should be an easier race. However, there is a concern this race may in fact be stronger. Choice Of Remark beat Triggerlo by a couple of lengths and then he went on to finish a creditable second in a restricted event. The winner was trained by one of David Evans two-year-olds. There is little doubt this colt has an element of ability - the task is trying to work out whether it is enough to win today's race. Evans representative must have fair place claims but may find one or two too good. However, this youngster doesn't look the type to go down without a fight.
Mick Channon has been sending out a few two-year-old winners - a few on debut. Gatepost is a 20,000 euro purchase for Dr Marwan Koukash. It should be noted that this colt has been given a stakes race entry, which is a sign of encouragement. There has been support for this youngster on the exchanges and Channon should have a line with Choice Of Remark. The starting price will be the best indicator of this colts chances and if heavily backed it would bring about more confidence. However, Channon features only a fair win rate with his juveniles priced 13/2 & less on debut and many improve with racing.
Of the others, Karuga is likely to be on many people's shortlist. Hannon has an impressive strike race on debut with his juveniles priced 11/4 & less. However, there is a slight concern about this juvenile. On the early declarations Richard Hughes was booked to ride, now Moore is in the saddle. It may be something and nothing but Hughes doesn't have any rides today and you have to consider if this daughter of Kyllachy was such a strong chance why he wouldn't take this ride. Time will tell. However, that point doesn't inspire confidence.
Two horses that may go well at a price are Night Angel and Samasana.
Night Angel was beaten a long way by Choice Of Remark on debut. On form this filly looks to have little chance but Millman is one of those trainers that you can never discount, especially juveniles on their second start. It wouldn't be a surprise to see a much improved performance today.
Samasana is another to note as Ian Woods has given this filly a stakes race entry. The downside is that the trainer has a poor win rate on debut, which suggests their horses improve with racing. They generally go well on their second start and that tempers enthusiasm.
HCE: ''Gatepost was very well backed - 7/1 was available on Betfair early - and this didn't relent as the money continued to backed to 15/8 second favourite at the off. Clearly connection were expecting something special and this attractive colt always looked to be going well. The second, Bayleyf, ran on well after being outpaced at the furlong pole. Best's juveniles often improve for the run and likely to go well on his next start. Choice Of Remark showed his experience if not going a touch too fast. He rallied at the finish and will find a small race as long as he doesn't regress. Karuga showed good speed until tiring in the final furlong while Chillie Billie was a touch keen and found trouble in running. He is worth a second chance because this seemed too bad to be true.''
Tuesday, 19 April 2011
Quick Note...
Just the one race tomorrow evening (5:05 Newcastle). With three first-time-out winners competing it should make for an interesting race.
I haven't been updating the blog with much else beyond the two-year-old racing and the Tipping Competition simply because I need to use my time wisely. It might make interesting reading with articles about professional gamblers, humour and all those quirky things I find from all corners of the Internet but the juveniles are the focus of my attention. Each and every two-year-old race is recorded and reviewed time after times. Each horse is scrutinised. All early race declarations are copied and saved for reference. When the time comes, Group entries for each trainer are kept. The HCE database has to be updated daily. So although the HCE blog may seem a quieter place than over those winter months, it is a much busier place behind the scenes. It is all about prioritising my time and energy. I hope you can understand my reasoning for our different approach.
As always, I would like to thank you for your support in making High Class Equine a continued success and to a brilliant Flat season.
I haven't been updating the blog with much else beyond the two-year-old racing and the Tipping Competition simply because I need to use my time wisely. It might make interesting reading with articles about professional gamblers, humour and all those quirky things I find from all corners of the Internet but the juveniles are the focus of my attention. Each and every two-year-old race is recorded and reviewed time after times. Each horse is scrutinised. All early race declarations are copied and saved for reference. When the time comes, Group entries for each trainer are kept. The HCE database has to be updated daily. So although the HCE blog may seem a quieter place than over those winter months, it is a much busier place behind the scenes. It is all about prioritising my time and energy. I hope you can understand my reasoning for our different approach.
As always, I would like to thank you for your support in making High Class Equine a continued success and to a brilliant Flat season.
2:10 Pontefract (19th April) - Result
A fillies' maiden over 5f on good to firm ground.
Eleven juveniles take part, including two with experience, both disappointing on debut.
Quite a mix of trainers from the more fashionable stables associated with two year olds and a few who rarely have a juvenile runner let alone a winner.
Gay Kelleway's Waybuloo went off 3/1 favourite on debut but proved to be a huge disappointment. Perhaps this daughter of Balmont is capable of better? She certainly needs to be to have any hope today. On the plus side, it is interesting to see that Fallon was booked early to ride this filly. Kelleway often goes well with early two year olds and although looking pretty poor on debut it isn't beyond the realms that everything went wrong that day and this relatively cheap purchase has more to offer. After such a lacklustre performance it would be wise to take a watching brief.
Tom Dascombe has started this season much better than last having a couple of winners from three runners. Pyman's Theory is fancied on the exchanges and this £42,000 yearling is one of the more expensive juevniles in this field. Dascombe is an interesting trainer because he is one of very few who has a better strike rate with his fancied debutantes than those second time out (although they are good). This daughter of Exceed And Excel should be respected and is likely to go well.
Another handler who has got off to a superb start is Tim Easterby. He has already had a couple of debutante winners which is all the more impressive when he has, in general, such a poor strike rate with juveniles making their racecourse bow. Easterby, chatting on At The Races, said he has a talented bunch of two year old but, as usual, kept his cards close to his chest. Punchie is relatively fancied in the betting and half-sister to Cocktail Charlie, who won on debut and a talent. I would still have concerns about Easterby's success with his debutantes and although his horses are clearly held in some regard, Punchie may be best watched.
Ebony Clarets has fair win and place claims if priced 13/2 & less.
Lyricist may have claims if heavily backed although it is something of a negative to note that Phillip Makin was originally booked to ride but now goes to Southwell.
In conclusion, a difficult race to have any strong views. From a statistical point of view Pyman's Theory and Ebony Clarets make most appeal.
HCE: ''Not many were involved at the finish with three of the major fancies battling to the line. Ebony Clarets done well considering she was slow from the stalls and still a few lengths adrift when turning into the home straight. However, Fahey's youngster (who was quite well backed just before the off) ran on well to collar the front-running Always Ends Well. Johnston's, second, ran much better today and after such a poor effort on debut was quite well fancied and typical of the trainer's juveniles made a bold bid and nearly made all. The money horse was Tom Dascombe's Pyman's Theory, who clearly came here with a reputation. Always holding a good position, she had every chance but couldn't ever quite get to grips with the leader or the late finish of Ebony Clarets. All three have look capable.
Eleven juveniles take part, including two with experience, both disappointing on debut.
Quite a mix of trainers from the more fashionable stables associated with two year olds and a few who rarely have a juvenile runner let alone a winner.
Gay Kelleway's Waybuloo went off 3/1 favourite on debut but proved to be a huge disappointment. Perhaps this daughter of Balmont is capable of better? She certainly needs to be to have any hope today. On the plus side, it is interesting to see that Fallon was booked early to ride this filly. Kelleway often goes well with early two year olds and although looking pretty poor on debut it isn't beyond the realms that everything went wrong that day and this relatively cheap purchase has more to offer. After such a lacklustre performance it would be wise to take a watching brief.
Tom Dascombe has started this season much better than last having a couple of winners from three runners. Pyman's Theory is fancied on the exchanges and this £42,000 yearling is one of the more expensive juevniles in this field. Dascombe is an interesting trainer because he is one of very few who has a better strike rate with his fancied debutantes than those second time out (although they are good). This daughter of Exceed And Excel should be respected and is likely to go well.
Another handler who has got off to a superb start is Tim Easterby. He has already had a couple of debutante winners which is all the more impressive when he has, in general, such a poor strike rate with juveniles making their racecourse bow. Easterby, chatting on At The Races, said he has a talented bunch of two year old but, as usual, kept his cards close to his chest. Punchie is relatively fancied in the betting and half-sister to Cocktail Charlie, who won on debut and a talent. I would still have concerns about Easterby's success with his debutantes and although his horses are clearly held in some regard, Punchie may be best watched.
Ebony Clarets has fair win and place claims if priced 13/2 & less.
Lyricist may have claims if heavily backed although it is something of a negative to note that Phillip Makin was originally booked to ride but now goes to Southwell.
In conclusion, a difficult race to have any strong views. From a statistical point of view Pyman's Theory and Ebony Clarets make most appeal.
HCE: ''Not many were involved at the finish with three of the major fancies battling to the line. Ebony Clarets done well considering she was slow from the stalls and still a few lengths adrift when turning into the home straight. However, Fahey's youngster (who was quite well backed just before the off) ran on well to collar the front-running Always Ends Well. Johnston's, second, ran much better today and after such a poor effort on debut was quite well fancied and typical of the trainer's juveniles made a bold bid and nearly made all. The money horse was Tom Dascombe's Pyman's Theory, who clearly came here with a reputation. Always holding a good position, she had every chance but couldn't ever quite get to grips with the leader or the late finish of Ebony Clarets. All three have look capable.
Monday, 18 April 2011
2:20 Redcar (18th April) - Result
A restricted auction race over this fast 5f.
There are quite a few fashionable stables represented.
One of the more fancied runners, Gone By Sunrise, is trained by Richard Fahey and owned by Market Avenue Racing, who have had a number of talented juveniles over the years. None of today's two year olds cost any amount of money, however, this colt by Three Valleys carries top weight. Fahey has fair win and place claims with his debutantes and one of the more interesting in an open event.
A selection of form horses take their chance. Van Go Go is a very cheaply purchased filly who went off joint favourite at Kempton on debut. Dascombe's youngster ran a fine race and wasn't pressed too hard when clearly held by the winner Majestic Rose. On balance, that was a fair effort although it is difficult to know exactly what she achieved in a small field that day. Her trainer holds fair win and place statistics with his fancied juveniles on their second start and experience is a huge advantage.
There wasn't much between the Evans pair Aquasulis and Middleton Flyer. The latter is the less fancied in the betting but looked awkward in the final stages at Windsor and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Middleton Flyer have a fighting chance of reversing the placings with her stablemate. Evans has been in good form with his juveniles.
First Bid is trained by Kevin Ryan and owned by John Frewell. A cheap purchase at 5,000 at the yearling sales, this son of Kyllachy is worth noting in the betting. Fretwell likes to have his juveniles fit and ready. If unfancied in the betting it wouldn't be a sign of encouragement. This combination have had winning two year olds although I feel Ed McMahon gets the better types.
Flambard House may have claims if substantially backed but, in general, Howard Johnson's juveniles improve for the run.
These restrictive maidens can be quite deceptive races in the sense that all of these juveniles are cheap purchases. Although that doesn't guarantee that some will not have ability, to some extent it brings about limitation, especially to those who have yet to race. Experience and race fitness confer a big advantage and Latte could go well at at price. A cheap buy at 2,000gns as a yearling, on the face of it there doesn't seem too much to recommend. However, this an attractive colt with a fluent stride. Tyme Partnership has done well with their juveniles trained by Linda Stubbs in past seasons. It is a sign of confidence that this son of Multiplex raced at stakes level on debut, was relatively fancied in the betting and Fallon was booked to ride. Since that race, this colt has been entered to run in another stakes race, which give additional support that more may be expected. Stubbs has been quoted as saying she has a nice bunch of two year olds and they often go well on their second start. Nothing much went right for Latte on debut because he hung at the 2f pole and was eased down thereafter. It is difficult to assess this juvenile in many ways but there are enough signs to suggest he has an element of ability.
HCE: ''No more than an average race but a gritty performance by Van Go Go who won by a length. Dascombe said this was her time and may struggle in stakes grade, however, she is a battling type. Howard Johnson's debutante - Flambard House - ran with credit, while Middleton Flyer made the frame. Latte held every chance at the furlong pole but didn't quite run to the line and perhaps a shade disappointing.''
There are quite a few fashionable stables represented.
One of the more fancied runners, Gone By Sunrise, is trained by Richard Fahey and owned by Market Avenue Racing, who have had a number of talented juveniles over the years. None of today's two year olds cost any amount of money, however, this colt by Three Valleys carries top weight. Fahey has fair win and place claims with his debutantes and one of the more interesting in an open event.
A selection of form horses take their chance. Van Go Go is a very cheaply purchased filly who went off joint favourite at Kempton on debut. Dascombe's youngster ran a fine race and wasn't pressed too hard when clearly held by the winner Majestic Rose. On balance, that was a fair effort although it is difficult to know exactly what she achieved in a small field that day. Her trainer holds fair win and place statistics with his fancied juveniles on their second start and experience is a huge advantage.
There wasn't much between the Evans pair Aquasulis and Middleton Flyer. The latter is the less fancied in the betting but looked awkward in the final stages at Windsor and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Middleton Flyer have a fighting chance of reversing the placings with her stablemate. Evans has been in good form with his juveniles.
First Bid is trained by Kevin Ryan and owned by John Frewell. A cheap purchase at 5,000 at the yearling sales, this son of Kyllachy is worth noting in the betting. Fretwell likes to have his juveniles fit and ready. If unfancied in the betting it wouldn't be a sign of encouragement. This combination have had winning two year olds although I feel Ed McMahon gets the better types.
Flambard House may have claims if substantially backed but, in general, Howard Johnson's juveniles improve for the run.
These restrictive maidens can be quite deceptive races in the sense that all of these juveniles are cheap purchases. Although that doesn't guarantee that some will not have ability, to some extent it brings about limitation, especially to those who have yet to race. Experience and race fitness confer a big advantage and Latte could go well at at price. A cheap buy at 2,000gns as a yearling, on the face of it there doesn't seem too much to recommend. However, this an attractive colt with a fluent stride. Tyme Partnership has done well with their juveniles trained by Linda Stubbs in past seasons. It is a sign of confidence that this son of Multiplex raced at stakes level on debut, was relatively fancied in the betting and Fallon was booked to ride. Since that race, this colt has been entered to run in another stakes race, which give additional support that more may be expected. Stubbs has been quoted as saying she has a nice bunch of two year olds and they often go well on their second start. Nothing much went right for Latte on debut because he hung at the 2f pole and was eased down thereafter. It is difficult to assess this juvenile in many ways but there are enough signs to suggest he has an element of ability.
HCE: ''No more than an average race but a gritty performance by Van Go Go who won by a length. Dascombe said this was her time and may struggle in stakes grade, however, she is a battling type. Howard Johnson's debutante - Flambard House - ran with credit, while Middleton Flyer made the frame. Latte held every chance at the furlong pole but didn't quite run to the line and perhaps a shade disappointing.''
Saturday, 16 April 2011
2:45 Leicester (16th April) - Result
2:45 Leicester
A median auction over 5f 2y.
With many of these juveniles cheap purchase this will probably be a limited raced. Of those with experience, Triggerlo has shown ability. This son of Piccolo has been campaigned at stakes class so far running in the Brocklesby and Nottingham. To all purposes, this is a drop in class and I can imagine Channon will be hoping for a big run. Triggerlo is an attractive colt and should be able to win in his two-year-old career. The Nottingham race is not the easiest to assess and although finishing 3rd was a fair result it was slightly disappointing in ways. He seemed to change his stride many times and it just may be the case better ground would suit. However, it is best to assess this youngster on what he achieved that day. He probably has his limitations but it would be disappointing if he couldn't run a big race with fitness and experience on side.
Highclere Thoroughbreds Racing should always be respected and Apostle slips into this race quite nicely considering he cost 60,000gns. I have heard that this son of Dark Angel is an attractive juvenile and Bell has done well with these connections in previous years. Although he has only a moderate win rate at the course, I can remember a number of his talented juveniles going well and I get the feeling he has successfully targeted this race before. Bell has been quoted as saying his horses are forward this year and his early-season juveniles generally attain a winning level of ability. Clearly, inexperience is always a worry and it is never easy to win on debut. However, this grey has claims and a leading chance.
Of the others, Thorpe Bay showed an element of ability on debut but more will be needed today. That looked a very moderate race and of such a restricted nature it was on a par with plating class.
En Ete is interesting simply for the reason that jockey Jake Payne takes the ride rather than Launch On Line at Ripon. There may be a simply explanation for this as Kieran Fox who was originally booked to ride has gone to Newbury. However, it may be the case that he had the choice of the Bill Turner juveniles and this could either spell a negative for the Launch On Line or a positive for this two year old.
HCE: ''Not the strongest of races, especially with Apostle slow to get into his running and then completely outpaced. There may be better to come. Cockney Fire was a little off the pace but ran on with great enthusiasm and won a shade cosily. Triggerlo looked to have a huge chance with the favourite on the ropes after the start and may have been unlucky to bump into a decent juvenile. However, this was a restricted race and while Channon's two year old has ability he is also limited to some extent. A good-looking colt, he will win at this level. Summathisnthat managed to get a place for Des Donovan.''
4:10 Ripon
A restricted auction maiden for fillies over 5f .
At first glance Launch On Line looks to hold every chance after showing promise on debut behind the talented Miss Work Of Art. In fact, the form of that Lingfield race had been franked. This daughter of Majestic Missile is a speedy type and could travel well in this race. However, there may be a few concerns. Fillies come in all shapes and sizes but it should be noted that this two year old is small and not the most attractive. On looks, she has the appearance of a plater. That said, it doesn't pay to be too dogmatic about looks as that was a fair run on debut. It is also a concern why Joe Fanning is riding. As noted above, Jack Payne was originally booked to ride but now goes to Leicester. He could do the weight on this filly so there is a slight concern he had the choice of rides. There might be a straightforward answer for this but it is still something to consider. Turner's general statistics for his fancied runners on their second start suggest this filly has fair win and place claims. There is no getting away from the promise she showed on debut and she may well run a big race but her look and jockey booking are points of contention.
Paul Green is represented by Beau Mistral who ran with credit in the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes. This cheap purchase was short of room in the final two furlongs before running on quite well. This daughter of Windsor Knot gets in this race on a handy weight, especially with her jockey's allowance. It would be no surprise to see her go well although in recent years Green has had a handful of juveniles start at relatively short odds on their second start and all have disappointed.
Of the others, Arcticality has claims simply for being trained by Richard Fahey. He has a fair win and place rate with his fancied debutantes and has claims.
HCE: ''Tim Easterby does it again at Ripon - another two-year-old debutante winner. Ponty Acclaim won well and could be a fair sort. Beau Mistral come out of the Brocklesby in good order and ran well. Sweet Chilli finished 3rd. Launch On Line wasn't helped by the wide draw but showed speed until the furlong pole but tired after. She was weak in the betting and looks a short runner.''
5:10 Doncaster
Lilbourne Lad has been backed into favourite on the exchanges. The Hannon team are starting to hit the mark with their two year olds so money is always a sign of encouragement.
One Kool Dude - trained by Richard Fahey - has done nothing wrong on both his starts, narrowly defeated at Dundalk and Beverley. With experience, fitness & Hanagan in the saddle it will be a fair juvenile to beat him.
Kevin Ryan's £30,000 colt is fancied in the betting. Pea Shooter would be interesting if substantially backed. However, many of the trainer's juveniles are fancied on debut and they can be rather hit and miss.
Of the others, J J Leary could go well at a price. Nicholls' features quite a good place rate with his debutantes and owned by Dr Marwah Koukash is a positive.
HCE: ''Lilbourne Lad was very well backed and connections must have been pretty sure a big run was on the cards. An attractive colt, he is likely to progress with racing. Pea Shooter ran well to take second quite easily after leading, while One Kool Dude was always slightly on the back foot but plugged on to take third on the line.''
A median auction over 5f 2y.
With many of these juveniles cheap purchase this will probably be a limited raced. Of those with experience, Triggerlo has shown ability. This son of Piccolo has been campaigned at stakes class so far running in the Brocklesby and Nottingham. To all purposes, this is a drop in class and I can imagine Channon will be hoping for a big run. Triggerlo is an attractive colt and should be able to win in his two-year-old career. The Nottingham race is not the easiest to assess and although finishing 3rd was a fair result it was slightly disappointing in ways. He seemed to change his stride many times and it just may be the case better ground would suit. However, it is best to assess this youngster on what he achieved that day. He probably has his limitations but it would be disappointing if he couldn't run a big race with fitness and experience on side.
Highclere Thoroughbreds Racing should always be respected and Apostle slips into this race quite nicely considering he cost 60,000gns. I have heard that this son of Dark Angel is an attractive juvenile and Bell has done well with these connections in previous years. Although he has only a moderate win rate at the course, I can remember a number of his talented juveniles going well and I get the feeling he has successfully targeted this race before. Bell has been quoted as saying his horses are forward this year and his early-season juveniles generally attain a winning level of ability. Clearly, inexperience is always a worry and it is never easy to win on debut. However, this grey has claims and a leading chance.
Of the others, Thorpe Bay showed an element of ability on debut but more will be needed today. That looked a very moderate race and of such a restricted nature it was on a par with plating class.
En Ete is interesting simply for the reason that jockey Jake Payne takes the ride rather than Launch On Line at Ripon. There may be a simply explanation for this as Kieran Fox who was originally booked to ride has gone to Newbury. However, it may be the case that he had the choice of the Bill Turner juveniles and this could either spell a negative for the Launch On Line or a positive for this two year old.
HCE: ''Not the strongest of races, especially with Apostle slow to get into his running and then completely outpaced. There may be better to come. Cockney Fire was a little off the pace but ran on with great enthusiasm and won a shade cosily. Triggerlo looked to have a huge chance with the favourite on the ropes after the start and may have been unlucky to bump into a decent juvenile. However, this was a restricted race and while Channon's two year old has ability he is also limited to some extent. A good-looking colt, he will win at this level. Summathisnthat managed to get a place for Des Donovan.''
4:10 Ripon
A restricted auction maiden for fillies over 5f .
At first glance Launch On Line looks to hold every chance after showing promise on debut behind the talented Miss Work Of Art. In fact, the form of that Lingfield race had been franked. This daughter of Majestic Missile is a speedy type and could travel well in this race. However, there may be a few concerns. Fillies come in all shapes and sizes but it should be noted that this two year old is small and not the most attractive. On looks, she has the appearance of a plater. That said, it doesn't pay to be too dogmatic about looks as that was a fair run on debut. It is also a concern why Joe Fanning is riding. As noted above, Jack Payne was originally booked to ride but now goes to Leicester. He could do the weight on this filly so there is a slight concern he had the choice of rides. There might be a straightforward answer for this but it is still something to consider. Turner's general statistics for his fancied runners on their second start suggest this filly has fair win and place claims. There is no getting away from the promise she showed on debut and she may well run a big race but her look and jockey booking are points of contention.
Paul Green is represented by Beau Mistral who ran with credit in the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes. This cheap purchase was short of room in the final two furlongs before running on quite well. This daughter of Windsor Knot gets in this race on a handy weight, especially with her jockey's allowance. It would be no surprise to see her go well although in recent years Green has had a handful of juveniles start at relatively short odds on their second start and all have disappointed.
Of the others, Arcticality has claims simply for being trained by Richard Fahey. He has a fair win and place rate with his fancied debutantes and has claims.
HCE: ''Tim Easterby does it again at Ripon - another two-year-old debutante winner. Ponty Acclaim won well and could be a fair sort. Beau Mistral come out of the Brocklesby in good order and ran well. Sweet Chilli finished 3rd. Launch On Line wasn't helped by the wide draw but showed speed until the furlong pole but tired after. She was weak in the betting and looks a short runner.''
5:10 Doncaster
Lilbourne Lad has been backed into favourite on the exchanges. The Hannon team are starting to hit the mark with their two year olds so money is always a sign of encouragement.
One Kool Dude - trained by Richard Fahey - has done nothing wrong on both his starts, narrowly defeated at Dundalk and Beverley. With experience, fitness & Hanagan in the saddle it will be a fair juvenile to beat him.
Kevin Ryan's £30,000 colt is fancied in the betting. Pea Shooter would be interesting if substantially backed. However, many of the trainer's juveniles are fancied on debut and they can be rather hit and miss.
Of the others, J J Leary could go well at a price. Nicholls' features quite a good place rate with his debutantes and owned by Dr Marwah Koukash is a positive.
HCE: ''Lilbourne Lad was very well backed and connections must have been pretty sure a big run was on the cards. An attractive colt, he is likely to progress with racing. Pea Shooter ran well to take second quite easily after leading, while One Kool Dude was always slightly on the back foot but plugged on to take third on the line.''
Friday, 15 April 2011
1:35 Newbury (15th April)
A Maiden over 5f.
With fifteen runners declared this is the biggest maiden of the season so far featuring a field full of colts/geldings and a solitary filly.
This field of debutantes will be assessed by the market, trainer data and related pointers.
Regal Entrance is the first two year old from Jeremy Noseda. A 100,000gns purchase & owned by Cheveley Park Stud indicate potential. Unsurprisingly, Noseda's juvenile is fancied in the betting. Such is his reputation that over half of his debutantes were priced 13/2 & less in the last few years. Within this betting guide juveniles have a fair win and place rate. Dettori has a good strike rate with the trainer although the course statistics are not so impressive. The use of visor first time is something of a quandary.
Paul Cole's two-year-old horses are going well and Commissar has a number of positives. A representative from the Cole stable said: ''Commissar has entries at both Newmarket and Newbury in potentially hot races. He seems to go well on the gallops, and we hope he can translate this to the track as we’ve admired him for a while''. I thought the use of the word ''admired'' was an interesting term. Also, it is worth noting that this colt was entered to run in a stakes race, which often indicates promise. I had an additional study of Cole's juveniles and his debutantes often fall into two categories: win or unplaced. He has a fair win rate with his fancied juveniles but if plumping for a bet I would rather go for a straight win. It is worth pointing out that Cole has very few debutantes win when priced over 8/1 and this is may be a deciding factor today. The stable were represented by Memen last year, who was a talented juvenile. He improved for the run. Commissar is an intriguing runner and I get the feeling is held in some regard. However, it is never easy to win on debut, especially in a potentially competitive race. Interesting.
Chunky Diamond is relatively fancied on the exchanges. Peter Chapple-Hyam is very unusual in that his fancied juveniles have a better win rate on debut than they do on their second start. Clearly this is an indication that his two-year-old horses are primed to go well on their racecourse bow. If priced 13/2 & less this youngster has fair win and place claims.
Jane Chapple-Hyam won this race last year with Klammer. Trainers often follow tradition and although she is difficult to assess, can win on debut. Her early-seaon juveniles can go well and if Coach Montana is backed it would be a sign of confidence. Fallon is a positive jockey booking, too.
Of the others, Hannon's pair: Magic City and Sixx* are worth noting in the betting. Hannon said: "We always like bringing our two-year-olds here, and we run two nice juvenles in the opener, Magic City, who is by Elusive City, and Sixx (good beer that, boss!), who is by Royal Applause. Both have been shaping up with a lot of promise at home, but there are 13 others in the race and I am sure that their trainers are equally optimistic.''
Arabian Falcon has been given a stakes race entry and is worth noting on his next start.
A difficult race to have any strong opinions although the betting is key to the chances of many. Regal Entrance, Chunky Diamond & Magic City have fair place claims if fancied in the betting. Commissar is another to respect but may need the experience if priced over 8/1. If backed, Coach Montana has claims, too.
*NR Sixx
HCE:''A field full of attractive juveniles and an easy winner Magic City. Hannon has targeted this race with a few talented youngsters in the past and this colt will probably be heading for Royal Ascot. Signifer ran well in second and will have little trouble winning, while Commissar is a colt with size and scope. After being slightly outpaced, he ran on well and has a decent future. Sympathies to Cheveley Park Stud whose Regal Entrance looked to sustain an injury.''
With fifteen runners declared this is the biggest maiden of the season so far featuring a field full of colts/geldings and a solitary filly.
This field of debutantes will be assessed by the market, trainer data and related pointers.
Regal Entrance is the first two year old from Jeremy Noseda. A 100,000gns purchase & owned by Cheveley Park Stud indicate potential. Unsurprisingly, Noseda's juvenile is fancied in the betting. Such is his reputation that over half of his debutantes were priced 13/2 & less in the last few years. Within this betting guide juveniles have a fair win and place rate. Dettori has a good strike rate with the trainer although the course statistics are not so impressive. The use of visor first time is something of a quandary.
Paul Cole's two-year-old horses are going well and Commissar has a number of positives. A representative from the Cole stable said: ''Commissar has entries at both Newmarket and Newbury in potentially hot races. He seems to go well on the gallops, and we hope he can translate this to the track as we’ve admired him for a while''. I thought the use of the word ''admired'' was an interesting term. Also, it is worth noting that this colt was entered to run in a stakes race, which often indicates promise. I had an additional study of Cole's juveniles and his debutantes often fall into two categories: win or unplaced. He has a fair win rate with his fancied juveniles but if plumping for a bet I would rather go for a straight win. It is worth pointing out that Cole has very few debutantes win when priced over 8/1 and this is may be a deciding factor today. The stable were represented by Memen last year, who was a talented juvenile. He improved for the run. Commissar is an intriguing runner and I get the feeling is held in some regard. However, it is never easy to win on debut, especially in a potentially competitive race. Interesting.
Chunky Diamond is relatively fancied on the exchanges. Peter Chapple-Hyam is very unusual in that his fancied juveniles have a better win rate on debut than they do on their second start. Clearly this is an indication that his two-year-old horses are primed to go well on their racecourse bow. If priced 13/2 & less this youngster has fair win and place claims.
Jane Chapple-Hyam won this race last year with Klammer. Trainers often follow tradition and although she is difficult to assess, can win on debut. Her early-seaon juveniles can go well and if Coach Montana is backed it would be a sign of confidence. Fallon is a positive jockey booking, too.
Of the others, Hannon's pair: Magic City and Sixx* are worth noting in the betting. Hannon said: "We always like bringing our two-year-olds here, and we run two nice juvenles in the opener, Magic City, who is by Elusive City, and Sixx (good beer that, boss!), who is by Royal Applause. Both have been shaping up with a lot of promise at home, but there are 13 others in the race and I am sure that their trainers are equally optimistic.''
Arabian Falcon has been given a stakes race entry and is worth noting on his next start.
A difficult race to have any strong opinions although the betting is key to the chances of many. Regal Entrance, Chunky Diamond & Magic City have fair place claims if fancied in the betting. Commissar is another to respect but may need the experience if priced over 8/1. If backed, Coach Montana has claims, too.
*NR Sixx
HCE:''A field full of attractive juveniles and an easy winner Magic City. Hannon has targeted this race with a few talented youngsters in the past and this colt will probably be heading for Royal Ascot. Signifer ran well in second and will have little trouble winning, while Commissar is a colt with size and scope. After being slightly outpaced, he ran on well and has a decent future. Sympathies to Cheveley Park Stud whose Regal Entrance looked to sustain an injury.''
Thursday, 14 April 2011
Quick Note...
Just the one race tomorrow - 1:35 Newbury. We have a sizable field of fifteen runners featuring colts & geldings and a solitary filly. A grade one courses is more likely to reveal one or two talented juveniles.
1:50 Newmarket (14th April)
An EBF fillies' maiden over 5f.
Richard Hannon's juveniles are getting into gear with Lord Of The Shadows a recent winner and a second yesterday with Tell Dad. Tea Cup will be trying to follow in the hoof prints of last year's winner Penny's Pearl. This daughter of Danehill Dancer received a promising comment from the trainer's website, which suggested she has a decent chance. A 65,000euro buy, this bay filly should be respected.
Paul Cole started the two-year-old campaign in perfect style when Silverheels won on debut. Royal Blush is a home bred and half-sister to Jazz Jam, who triumphed at Listed class. A daughter of Cherry Hinton (Group 3) winner Applaud suggest this juvenile has potential. Owners, Denford Stud have done well with the juveniles sent to Cole: Rimth, Velvet Band, Jazz Jam & Elizabeth Street have all shown varied levels of ability. Very few of the trainer's juveniles win on debut when priced over 8/1 but this filly has attracted support on the exchanges. A daughter of Royal Applause, she is one for the shortlist, however, the stables juveniles do feature a much higher strike rate on their second start.
Liesl hails from a stable with a large string of two year olds. Kevin Ryan has his horses in good form and the juveniles have been running creditably. The betting is the best guide to this daughter of Iffraaj who is closely related to Balthazaar's Gift. If very well backed, it would be a sign of encouragement. However, Ryan doesn't win as regularly with his debutantes as punters imagine and can be rather hit and miss. Few of his juveniles win when priced over 7/1 when making their racecourse bow.
Dark Ages seems relatively fancied on the betting exchanges. Significant money would give place claims. However, their general win rate on debut doesn't inspire confidence.
Mick Channon has a huge string of two-year-old horses and Princess Banu was relatively fancied on debut but to be fair showed little ability. The stable's juveniles often improve for the run and if fancied in the betting more could be expected. She needs to improve from that first run to figure here. Race experience will afford an advantage over her rivals but the betting is the best indicator of her hopes today. If one of the leading fancies in the betting, this daughter of Oasis Dream has place claims but it would be no surprise to see her weak in the market.
Of the others, My Solitaire comes from a stable that can go well on debut. Another who may go well at a price is Marie's Fantasy. Kelleway often sends out some of her better juveniles early season and in previous years Beat Seven, Azif and Lady Morganna have run well on debut at Newmarket around this time and may have all run in this race. A cheap purchase at 4,500gns, this bay may have a glimmer of hope at speculative odds.
Not the easiest race to conclude. Tea Cup and Royal Blush are the most likely types.
HCE: ''Princess Banu was a different horse today. Clearly, race experience gave her an advantage but you have to consider she may have disappointed to some extent on debut because this was a much better performance. Channon's filly is small and dwarfed by many of the opposition. She is a very nippy type and would be well suited to Chester. Connections may have the Lilly Agnes penciled-in after this. Royal Blush ran on well and will be winning soon. Guru Girl is another who is likely to progress with racing.''
Richard Hannon's juveniles are getting into gear with Lord Of The Shadows a recent winner and a second yesterday with Tell Dad. Tea Cup will be trying to follow in the hoof prints of last year's winner Penny's Pearl. This daughter of Danehill Dancer received a promising comment from the trainer's website, which suggested she has a decent chance. A 65,000euro buy, this bay filly should be respected.
Paul Cole started the two-year-old campaign in perfect style when Silverheels won on debut. Royal Blush is a home bred and half-sister to Jazz Jam, who triumphed at Listed class. A daughter of Cherry Hinton (Group 3) winner Applaud suggest this juvenile has potential. Owners, Denford Stud have done well with the juveniles sent to Cole: Rimth, Velvet Band, Jazz Jam & Elizabeth Street have all shown varied levels of ability. Very few of the trainer's juveniles win on debut when priced over 8/1 but this filly has attracted support on the exchanges. A daughter of Royal Applause, she is one for the shortlist, however, the stables juveniles do feature a much higher strike rate on their second start.
Liesl hails from a stable with a large string of two year olds. Kevin Ryan has his horses in good form and the juveniles have been running creditably. The betting is the best guide to this daughter of Iffraaj who is closely related to Balthazaar's Gift. If very well backed, it would be a sign of encouragement. However, Ryan doesn't win as regularly with his debutantes as punters imagine and can be rather hit and miss. Few of his juveniles win when priced over 7/1 when making their racecourse bow.
Dark Ages seems relatively fancied on the betting exchanges. Significant money would give place claims. However, their general win rate on debut doesn't inspire confidence.
Mick Channon has a huge string of two-year-old horses and Princess Banu was relatively fancied on debut but to be fair showed little ability. The stable's juveniles often improve for the run and if fancied in the betting more could be expected. She needs to improve from that first run to figure here. Race experience will afford an advantage over her rivals but the betting is the best indicator of her hopes today. If one of the leading fancies in the betting, this daughter of Oasis Dream has place claims but it would be no surprise to see her weak in the market.
Of the others, My Solitaire comes from a stable that can go well on debut. Another who may go well at a price is Marie's Fantasy. Kelleway often sends out some of her better juveniles early season and in previous years Beat Seven, Azif and Lady Morganna have run well on debut at Newmarket around this time and may have all run in this race. A cheap purchase at 4,500gns, this bay may have a glimmer of hope at speculative odds.
Not the easiest race to conclude. Tea Cup and Royal Blush are the most likely types.
HCE: ''Princess Banu was a different horse today. Clearly, race experience gave her an advantage but you have to consider she may have disappointed to some extent on debut because this was a much better performance. Channon's filly is small and dwarfed by many of the opposition. She is a very nippy type and would be well suited to Chester. Connections may have the Lilly Agnes penciled-in after this. Royal Blush ran on well and will be winning soon. Guru Girl is another who is likely to progress with racing.''
Wednesday, 13 April 2011
2:25 Newmarket (13th April)
A stakes race over 5f featuring two previous winners.
Experience will be a big advantage to those who have raced.
Jack Who's He ran well on debut in what was probably an average race. Evans colt by Red Clubs is an attractive, athletic colt and ran on with enthusiasm at Leicester to win with ease. Jack Who's He is certainly capable of being competitive at stakes level but it is difficult to assess how he will fair against today's opposition. At the prices, I would rather watch and learn a little more. On form, this youngster is the horse to beat.
Bill Turner knows the time of day with his two year olds and The Dancing Lord is a sizable colt who looks straightforward. The form of his debut has been franked and he had little problem winning at Folkestone. He has a fair level of speed, however, the race at Folkestone was pretty poor and most of the opposition will be racing at plating class, which hardly inspires confidence. After seemingly running his race on debut, The Dancing Lord may struggle against this competitive field.
Richard Hannon got off the mark with his first two-year-old winner at Windsor with Lord Of The Shadows. Tell Dad is the interesting horse in this field and potentially the one to bustle-up the previous winners. Having said that, he has to prove he is a talented juvenile because beating experienced juveniles, which have a winning level of ability will be no easy task. I generally view such horses with the quote: 'Let them prove they have ability'. Considering Hannon won this race last year, that this colt cost 72,000gns & owned by Andrew Tinkler, they are all positives. Tell Dad is in receipt of 7lb from the winners, which gives a handy advantage, however, Hannon's representative will need to be fit, ready & talented to win.
Of the others, Phil McEntee often goes well with the first juvenile of the season. But even with Fallon in the saddle it would be a surprise to see Chillie Billie win.
Sabusa has race experience but may be outpaced in the early stages. This bay colt is a battling type and if he can keep tabs on the field may run on in the latter stages but unlikely to trouble the major hopes.
Watching brief.
HCE: ''Jack Who's He battled to hold the late charge of Tell Dad, who seemed to be travelling with ease at the furlong pole. Chillie Billie is held in some regard by McEntee and it was a positive to hear Fallon had been to the stables to ride this youngster.''
Full result (click)
Other races
2:00 Cattrick
Full result (click)
Experience will be a big advantage to those who have raced.
Jack Who's He ran well on debut in what was probably an average race. Evans colt by Red Clubs is an attractive, athletic colt and ran on with enthusiasm at Leicester to win with ease. Jack Who's He is certainly capable of being competitive at stakes level but it is difficult to assess how he will fair against today's opposition. At the prices, I would rather watch and learn a little more. On form, this youngster is the horse to beat.
Bill Turner knows the time of day with his two year olds and The Dancing Lord is a sizable colt who looks straightforward. The form of his debut has been franked and he had little problem winning at Folkestone. He has a fair level of speed, however, the race at Folkestone was pretty poor and most of the opposition will be racing at plating class, which hardly inspires confidence. After seemingly running his race on debut, The Dancing Lord may struggle against this competitive field.
Richard Hannon got off the mark with his first two-year-old winner at Windsor with Lord Of The Shadows. Tell Dad is the interesting horse in this field and potentially the one to bustle-up the previous winners. Having said that, he has to prove he is a talented juvenile because beating experienced juveniles, which have a winning level of ability will be no easy task. I generally view such horses with the quote: 'Let them prove they have ability'. Considering Hannon won this race last year, that this colt cost 72,000gns & owned by Andrew Tinkler, they are all positives. Tell Dad is in receipt of 7lb from the winners, which gives a handy advantage, however, Hannon's representative will need to be fit, ready & talented to win.
Of the others, Phil McEntee often goes well with the first juvenile of the season. But even with Fallon in the saddle it would be a surprise to see Chillie Billie win.
Sabusa has race experience but may be outpaced in the early stages. This bay colt is a battling type and if he can keep tabs on the field may run on in the latter stages but unlikely to trouble the major hopes.
Watching brief.
HCE: ''Jack Who's He battled to hold the late charge of Tell Dad, who seemed to be travelling with ease at the furlong pole. Chillie Billie is held in some regard by McEntee and it was a positive to hear Fallon had been to the stables to ride this youngster.''
Full result (click)
Other races
2:00 Cattrick
Full result (click)
Tuesday, 12 April 2011
3:40 Southwell (12th April) - Result
A 5f sprint for colts & fillies - an open race.
Two juveniles have race experience which confers an advantage today. Dougie Boy ran at Leicester on debut, trailing behind easy winner Jack Who's He. The second, Dawn Lightning, has won a small race since. This son of Trade Fair is a sizable juvenile and an out-and-out galloper. One of the most noticeable features is that Dougie Boy has a pronounced knee action, which suggests this surface will be more suiting. Bill Turner does well with his early-season two year olds and he has respectable win and place statistics with fancied runners on their second start. In what probably amounts to a poor race, this bay colt should be there about.
The other horse to have raced is Mousie, trained by Alan McCabe. This filly held an engagement for the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes but made her debut at Wolverhampton. A cheap purchase, she ran creditably, however, that looked a lowly race and of a very restrictive nature. It doesn't inspire confidence to see that the second that day - Nannerl - has since been entered to run in a Selling race. Mousie may improve and this fitness will be a plus but more may be needed.
The few of the debutantes are interesting for a number of reasons - mostly negative.
Mark Johnston has had a few runners this term and all have disappointed. From studying the past few years, his better juveniles appear at the start of May. Manderston has been entered to run in a Selling race, which must be considered a negative. This factor is likely to have been missed by many because it isn't common knowledge. That said, it doesn't guarantee this son of Araafa cannot win although I certainly wouldn't bet on this bay colt.
Another juvenile quite fancied in the betting is David Barron's Elnadin colt, Mitchum. A half-brother to Pepper Lane, this 4,000gns buy comes from a stable that can have a talented juvenile. Although his fancied debutantes are often placed win statistics suggest he may not be heading the field.
Cotes Du Rhone & Abercandy hail from David Evans stable. Neither are fancied in the betting at this time but support would be a pointer but a watching brief today.
Darnatheun is one of the more interesting debutantes trained by Paul D'Arcy. He is a talented trainer and his two year old often go well on debut. Being a gelding and wearing a visor first time suggest this son of Librettist is a wayward character. However, D'Arcy features fair place rate with his fancied juveniles on debut and if substantially backed would have each way claims.
A difficult race to call with the majority of the field featuring more negatives than positives. Dougie Boy doesn't look the fastest horse on four legs but has place claims. He may be the one to beat. Manderston is one to be careful with after being entered for a plating race.
HCE: ''The statistics didn't suggest Mitchum would win (although he had fair place claims) but he won his with ease. An attractive horse, with scope for improvement, he left his field toiling in his wake. Dougie Boy is a plodder and does nothing quickly but managed a place. Mousie ran ok for third. Manderston done little and the selling entry clearly indicated limited ability. A poor race - but impressive winner.
Two juveniles have race experience which confers an advantage today. Dougie Boy ran at Leicester on debut, trailing behind easy winner Jack Who's He. The second, Dawn Lightning, has won a small race since. This son of Trade Fair is a sizable juvenile and an out-and-out galloper. One of the most noticeable features is that Dougie Boy has a pronounced knee action, which suggests this surface will be more suiting. Bill Turner does well with his early-season two year olds and he has respectable win and place statistics with fancied runners on their second start. In what probably amounts to a poor race, this bay colt should be there about.
The other horse to have raced is Mousie, trained by Alan McCabe. This filly held an engagement for the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes but made her debut at Wolverhampton. A cheap purchase, she ran creditably, however, that looked a lowly race and of a very restrictive nature. It doesn't inspire confidence to see that the second that day - Nannerl - has since been entered to run in a Selling race. Mousie may improve and this fitness will be a plus but more may be needed.
The few of the debutantes are interesting for a number of reasons - mostly negative.
Mark Johnston has had a few runners this term and all have disappointed. From studying the past few years, his better juveniles appear at the start of May. Manderston has been entered to run in a Selling race, which must be considered a negative. This factor is likely to have been missed by many because it isn't common knowledge. That said, it doesn't guarantee this son of Araafa cannot win although I certainly wouldn't bet on this bay colt.
Another juvenile quite fancied in the betting is David Barron's Elnadin colt, Mitchum. A half-brother to Pepper Lane, this 4,000gns buy comes from a stable that can have a talented juvenile. Although his fancied debutantes are often placed win statistics suggest he may not be heading the field.
Cotes Du Rhone & Abercandy hail from David Evans stable. Neither are fancied in the betting at this time but support would be a pointer but a watching brief today.
Darnatheun is one of the more interesting debutantes trained by Paul D'Arcy. He is a talented trainer and his two year old often go well on debut. Being a gelding and wearing a visor first time suggest this son of Librettist is a wayward character. However, D'Arcy features fair place rate with his fancied juveniles on debut and if substantially backed would have each way claims.
A difficult race to call with the majority of the field featuring more negatives than positives. Dougie Boy doesn't look the fastest horse on four legs but has place claims. He may be the one to beat. Manderston is one to be careful with after being entered for a plating race.
HCE: ''The statistics didn't suggest Mitchum would win (although he had fair place claims) but he won his with ease. An attractive horse, with scope for improvement, he left his field toiling in his wake. Dougie Boy is a plodder and does nothing quickly but managed a place. Mousie ran ok for third. Manderston done little and the selling entry clearly indicated limited ability. A poor race - but impressive winner.
Monday, 11 April 2011
Racing Ahead - May's Issue
5:30 Windsor (11th April) - Result
EBF maiden over 5f 10y.
A selection of colts and fillies, three with form.
With experience on side, Lord Of The Shadows will be much wiser today and has strong claims at prohibitive odds. This 70,000gns yearling is an attractive deep-chested son of Kyllachy. Although a touch outpaced on debut, he travelled well at the furlong pole, looking to have every chance of winning but out classed by Paul Cole's prospect Silverheels. Lord Of The Shadows is a winner in the making. He must go close today.
The main contenders come in the form of Safari Storm and Serious Spender.
The former trained by Brian Meehan is a 36,000gns son of Dubawi. It is encouraging to note that Safari Storm has been entered to run in a Stakes race but connections have taken this route. These owners have had a number of fair juveniles with Meehan but interestingly most improve for their debut, which negates his chances today.
Serious Spender is quite fancied in the betting, which is a sign of encouragement. This 45,000gns yearling and son of Amadeus Wolf comes from an owner who has been connected with a number of talented juveniles and Ralph Beckett has a fair strike rate with his debutantes. This bay colt has place claims. However, it is never easy to win on debut and that factor is compounded by racing against a potentially talented juvenile with course and distance experience.
Of the others, Aquasulis may be capable of better. This filly was relatively fancied on debut but was clueless. This daughter of Titus Livius has size and scope and quite attractive.
Lord Of The Shadows will be a tough nut to crack.
HCE: ''Lord Of The Shadows ran out a fair winner. Serious Spender was fit and ready running well giving favourite backers a slight scare at the two-furlong pole. Aquasulis showed good speed and hung on to take third place a decent odds.''
A selection of colts and fillies, three with form.
With experience on side, Lord Of The Shadows will be much wiser today and has strong claims at prohibitive odds. This 70,000gns yearling is an attractive deep-chested son of Kyllachy. Although a touch outpaced on debut, he travelled well at the furlong pole, looking to have every chance of winning but out classed by Paul Cole's prospect Silverheels. Lord Of The Shadows is a winner in the making. He must go close today.
The main contenders come in the form of Safari Storm and Serious Spender.
The former trained by Brian Meehan is a 36,000gns son of Dubawi. It is encouraging to note that Safari Storm has been entered to run in a Stakes race but connections have taken this route. These owners have had a number of fair juveniles with Meehan but interestingly most improve for their debut, which negates his chances today.
Serious Spender is quite fancied in the betting, which is a sign of encouragement. This 45,000gns yearling and son of Amadeus Wolf comes from an owner who has been connected with a number of talented juveniles and Ralph Beckett has a fair strike rate with his debutantes. This bay colt has place claims. However, it is never easy to win on debut and that factor is compounded by racing against a potentially talented juvenile with course and distance experience.
Of the others, Aquasulis may be capable of better. This filly was relatively fancied on debut but was clueless. This daughter of Titus Livius has size and scope and quite attractive.
Lord Of The Shadows will be a tough nut to crack.
HCE: ''Lord Of The Shadows ran out a fair winner. Serious Spender was fit and ready running well giving favourite backers a slight scare at the two-furlong pole. Aquasulis showed good speed and hung on to take third place a decent odds.''
Sunday, 10 April 2011
Not Again: Whatcombe hope rain won't spoil the show
The sun has been shining and the horses have been working hard in preparation for the big meetings at Newbury and Newmarket. Rimth is heading for the Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury, a course where we’ve had some good times. We think she’ll get the 7f, and although the run will be needed to blow away the cobwebs, we hope she has the class to put up a fight. Lily Again goes for the Nell Gywn at Newmarket, and she seems to have trained well after a winter break. We think the track will suit her, and we’re praying for the ground to be firm. Firmer ground has been her most effective surface, and we'd be hopeful if conditions were to suit.
Other than the two mentioned above, we’re mostly sending our juveniles to Newmarket and Newbury. Strategic Bid has been working very promisingly in the past few weeks, and he goes for the Wood Ditton. We don’t know if he’ll be all guns blazing first time out, but we’re hopeful of a good show. Commissar has entries at both Newmarket and Newbury in potentially hot races. He seems to go well on the gallops, and we hope he can translate this to the track as we’ve admired him for a while. Flashbang will improve a lot from her last run, where she’ll be suited by the track. Vicona, Pinch of Posh, and Cheherezard will come on from their respective races, and we’ll know a lot more about them afterwards.
Flodden should take to the Kempton all-weather surface, as should Doc Hay. We’ve done as much as we can with the latter, and we’re expecting him to go close.
Anthony Dunkley
Other than the two mentioned above, we’re mostly sending our juveniles to Newmarket and Newbury. Strategic Bid has been working very promisingly in the past few weeks, and he goes for the Wood Ditton. We don’t know if he’ll be all guns blazing first time out, but we’re hopeful of a good show. Commissar has entries at both Newmarket and Newbury in potentially hot races. He seems to go well on the gallops, and we hope he can translate this to the track as we’ve admired him for a while. Flashbang will improve a lot from her last run, where she’ll be suited by the track. Vicona, Pinch of Posh, and Cheherezard will come on from their respective races, and we’ll know a lot more about them afterwards.
Flodden should take to the Kempton all-weather surface, as should Doc Hay. We’ve done as much as we can with the latter, and we’re expecting him to go close.
Anthony Dunkley
HCE Snippets - Two-year-old talk...
Ann Duffield
The horses we took to Ripon to work yesterday morning all went well, the five two year olds were led by Riverdale, a 77 rated three year old who did well last year winning impressively at Beverely. With George, Silvestre de Sousa, Phil Makin, Amy Ryan and Paul Mulrenan on board the babies, Lee Newman set a good strong pace on Riverdale. They all learnt a lot from their racecourse experience and will start their racing careers very soon. The lovely Medecis filly who is in our ladies only syndicate "Girls on Top" worked very nicely at Ripon and I am looking for a suitable race for her. We have two extra members in our group and we are all looking forward to seeing her run, there are not many shares left and the ladies who are already involved in her are, I am sure, going to have a good Summer.
Tim Easterby
The horses are starting the season well enough with Queens Revenge becoming our first 2-y-o winner of the season. The filly started very slowly in the five furlong Nags Head Pickhill Maiden Stakes. Ridden by David Allan, Queens Revenge had to squeeze between horses entering the final furlong but finished strongly to win by a head.
A first success for the first season sire Multiplex who is currently standing at Mickley Stud.
The yard won the same race last year with Cocktail Charlie and has now won the race five times in the past six years.
David Evans
Our smart two-year-old filly Redair - just touched off in the Brocklesby- will now be aimed at Chester's Lily Agnes Stakes.
James Millman
Garrarufa, a full brother to the best 2yo I have ridden so far in Roi De Vitesse who was second in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket. However Roi showed nothing at home and ran very moderately on debut at Folkestone but improved tremendously through the season. Gary also shows little at home, although his work has improved of late. We hope he progresses at much as Roi throughout his two-year-old career.
Tim Pitt
I was pleased with Sonko on her debut yesterday at Nottingham even though when one reads her finishing position reads that she finished 6th of seven runners. She took everything in her stride beforehand and behaved beautifully in the prelimanries. She was swiftly away and travelled very nicely away to the mid part of the race. The ground was very quick due to the fixture being moved from the inner track to the previously unwaterded outer track in the morning due to a patch of false ground being found on the inner track. She was the last one off the bridle but then showed signs of greenness and drifted out into the centre of the track before being swamped late on. In hindsight I felt if Amy had pulled her stick through a little earlier and kept her straight when she started to drift then she may have been fourth but she didn't give her a hard time as a result reported that the ground was was plenty quick enough for her. She came out of her race fine this morning and is currently enjoying some of this beautiful spring sunshine by having a day out in the field in company with Dark Ranger and Dark Spirit.
The horses we took to Ripon to work yesterday morning all went well, the five two year olds were led by Riverdale, a 77 rated three year old who did well last year winning impressively at Beverely. With George, Silvestre de Sousa, Phil Makin, Amy Ryan and Paul Mulrenan on board the babies, Lee Newman set a good strong pace on Riverdale. They all learnt a lot from their racecourse experience and will start their racing careers very soon. The lovely Medecis filly who is in our ladies only syndicate "Girls on Top" worked very nicely at Ripon and I am looking for a suitable race for her. We have two extra members in our group and we are all looking forward to seeing her run, there are not many shares left and the ladies who are already involved in her are, I am sure, going to have a good Summer.
Tim Easterby
The horses are starting the season well enough with Queens Revenge becoming our first 2-y-o winner of the season. The filly started very slowly in the five furlong Nags Head Pickhill Maiden Stakes. Ridden by David Allan, Queens Revenge had to squeeze between horses entering the final furlong but finished strongly to win by a head.
A first success for the first season sire Multiplex who is currently standing at Mickley Stud.
The yard won the same race last year with Cocktail Charlie and has now won the race five times in the past six years.
David Evans
Our smart two-year-old filly Redair - just touched off in the Brocklesby- will now be aimed at Chester's Lily Agnes Stakes.
James Millman
Garrarufa, a full brother to the best 2yo I have ridden so far in Roi De Vitesse who was second in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket. However Roi showed nothing at home and ran very moderately on debut at Folkestone but improved tremendously through the season. Gary also shows little at home, although his work has improved of late. We hope he progresses at much as Roi throughout his two-year-old career.
Tim Pitt
I was pleased with Sonko on her debut yesterday at Nottingham even though when one reads her finishing position reads that she finished 6th of seven runners. She took everything in her stride beforehand and behaved beautifully in the prelimanries. She was swiftly away and travelled very nicely away to the mid part of the race. The ground was very quick due to the fixture being moved from the inner track to the previously unwaterded outer track in the morning due to a patch of false ground being found on the inner track. She was the last one off the bridle but then showed signs of greenness and drifted out into the centre of the track before being swamped late on. In hindsight I felt if Amy had pulled her stick through a little earlier and kept her straight when she started to drift then she may have been fourth but she didn't give her a hard time as a result reported that the ground was was plenty quick enough for her. She came out of her race fine this morning and is currently enjoying some of this beautiful spring sunshine by having a day out in the field in company with Dark Ranger and Dark Spirit.
Saturday, 9 April 2011
Quick Note...
Well, what a day. The Grand National still captures the imagination of young and old alike. Well done to Donald McCain Jnr and his team. Ballabriggs was a gallant winner.
I would like to thank Ian of Wayward Lad Blog for his superb post about this year's race. It has been a great success and hugely popular.
With only one two-year-old race, it was a quiet afternoon for HCE. There are no juvenile races tomorrow so I will focus on completing the Racing Ahead submission for May's issue. It is coming on well.
Another winner for Patient Speculation. Mark's blog is well worth a read and he has really made an impact since he started blogging only a short time ago. He is a great asset to our blogging community. I would like to say that our little blogging community has such a great spirit with people looking out for each other. That is such an important factor because it is sometimes so easy to lose site of the person behind the blog.
Also, it is great to see HCE's Tipping Competition 2011 hitting the heights today with Neil showing everyone how it is done tipping Joseph Henry to bag an 18/1 winner. I think we are going to struggle to catch him after that success - but we can certainly try. Well done, Neil. That was a superb win.
Thanks for supporting HCE. We have passed the 1000th post this week. Not bad for a little blog.
I would like to thank Ian of Wayward Lad Blog for his superb post about this year's race. It has been a great success and hugely popular.
With only one two-year-old race, it was a quiet afternoon for HCE. There are no juvenile races tomorrow so I will focus on completing the Racing Ahead submission for May's issue. It is coming on well.
Another winner for Patient Speculation. Mark's blog is well worth a read and he has really made an impact since he started blogging only a short time ago. He is a great asset to our blogging community. I would like to say that our little blogging community has such a great spirit with people looking out for each other. That is such an important factor because it is sometimes so easy to lose site of the person behind the blog.
Also, it is great to see HCE's Tipping Competition 2011 hitting the heights today with Neil showing everyone how it is done tipping Joseph Henry to bag an 18/1 winner. I think we are going to struggle to catch him after that success - but we can certainly try. Well done, Neil. That was a superb win.
Thanks for supporting HCE. We have passed the 1000th post this week. Not bad for a little blog.
Friday, 8 April 2011
It's All About Class - Low Class!
Knowledge is power. If you read the theory of relativity while on the back of a 50cc moped - you feel like you are flying!
That's why it pays to follow HCE.
My brother is like one of those sniffer dogs. He has been specifically trained to bark when he finds a juicy morsel of knowledge. He is very well trained! Take today, he sniffed out a declaration for a selling race. I have never seen such enthusiasm since Toto ran down the yellow brick road. He notices those interesting facts within two-year-old horse racing. He loves early race declaration better than one of those manky chew sticks.
So what makes selling or claiming declarations so interesting? It's the equivalent to a trainer walking over to you at the race course and whispering: 'I don't fancy mine in the next!' Who needs telepathy? Only today David Evans, Dandy Nicholls and Andrew Haynes gave me a few words of wisdom (thanks, guys!). So what am I talking about? Well I noticed the first stage declarations for a 2yo Selling race. Fascinating! To many people that may seem the most boring statement on earth. Wow. A selling race entry, you don't say. What next, you going to start talking about Steve Davis? Interesting as he may be...these entries can be so revealing. It isn't always the case, but if you owned a horse and it was considered for a plating race something tells me you wouldn't expect to see it racing at Royal Ascot come June. Such lowly race declaration confer a huge advantage to all those who care to take note them. Said it was interesting! The point being that many declared to run in selling or claiming races will be withdrawn. Where do they go? No, not round Steve Davis' for a quick game of snooker. Many compete in maiden races. This is good news for those who realise what this means. As juveniles connected to a fashionable stable are likely to open at much shorter prices than they should. They often have a diminished chance of winning - usually drift dramatically in the betting. I can tell you something for free - very rarely will this information be published in the leading racing papers. It is a fallacy that big is better. Many of the most gigantic blue chip companies are not actually run very well at all. Their difference is that they can afford to make mistakes whereas the smaller business doesn't have that luxury.
HCE may be a small fish in a big pond of racing websites but we have an insight about two-year-old racing that actually gives you original cutting-edge data. Probably the most boring fact about horse racing are those dried-up cliches which are wheeled out year after year. There is only one reason you hear or read such things - because these 'fonts' of wisdom in truth have very little to say and even less that wants to be heard.
Don't make the mistake of missing our daily updates. If you bet on that selling-class horse in a maiden race because 'you didn't know' then come and read our daily blog because HCE will keep you informed.
That's why it pays to follow HCE.
My brother is like one of those sniffer dogs. He has been specifically trained to bark when he finds a juicy morsel of knowledge. He is very well trained! Take today, he sniffed out a declaration for a selling race. I have never seen such enthusiasm since Toto ran down the yellow brick road. He notices those interesting facts within two-year-old horse racing. He loves early race declaration better than one of those manky chew sticks.
So what makes selling or claiming declarations so interesting? It's the equivalent to a trainer walking over to you at the race course and whispering: 'I don't fancy mine in the next!' Who needs telepathy? Only today David Evans, Dandy Nicholls and Andrew Haynes gave me a few words of wisdom (thanks, guys!). So what am I talking about? Well I noticed the first stage declarations for a 2yo Selling race. Fascinating! To many people that may seem the most boring statement on earth. Wow. A selling race entry, you don't say. What next, you going to start talking about Steve Davis? Interesting as he may be...these entries can be so revealing. It isn't always the case, but if you owned a horse and it was considered for a plating race something tells me you wouldn't expect to see it racing at Royal Ascot come June. Such lowly race declaration confer a huge advantage to all those who care to take note them. Said it was interesting! The point being that many declared to run in selling or claiming races will be withdrawn. Where do they go? No, not round Steve Davis' for a quick game of snooker. Many compete in maiden races. This is good news for those who realise what this means. As juveniles connected to a fashionable stable are likely to open at much shorter prices than they should. They often have a diminished chance of winning - usually drift dramatically in the betting. I can tell you something for free - very rarely will this information be published in the leading racing papers. It is a fallacy that big is better. Many of the most gigantic blue chip companies are not actually run very well at all. Their difference is that they can afford to make mistakes whereas the smaller business doesn't have that luxury.
HCE may be a small fish in a big pond of racing websites but we have an insight about two-year-old racing that actually gives you original cutting-edge data. Probably the most boring fact about horse racing are those dried-up cliches which are wheeled out year after year. There is only one reason you hear or read such things - because these 'fonts' of wisdom in truth have very little to say and even less that wants to be heard.
Don't make the mistake of missing our daily updates. If you bet on that selling-class horse in a maiden race because 'you didn't know' then come and read our daily blog because HCE will keep you informed.
2:20 Newcastle (8th April) - Result
A small field for this restricted auction race over 5f on good to soft ground.
A tricky race.
Richard Fahey and Tom Dascombe are both capable of winning on debut and likelier types.
Shevington cost £20,000 as a yearling. David Armstrong has owned a number of talented juveniles in his time and Fahey has a fair strike rate at Newcastle.
Tom Dascombe had his first runner yesterday, which finished 2nd. This talented trainer had a poor season by his standards last year and will be hoping for much better this term. His statistics for the last few years make interesting reading because his fancied runners attain a better win rate on debut than their second starts, which is quite unusual. This factor suggests that Dascombe's youngsters are fit and ready to run and placed to have a fighting chance. Marford Missile cost £14,000 as a yearling and related to prolific winner Kipchak.
Linda Stubbs is a very talented trainer and often overlooked. However, her juveniles often improve a good deal for the experience, which may be a stumbling block for Forevertheoptimist. Stubbs has a fair win rate with Fallon and they make a intriguing partnership. The stable has a 30% win rate at the course in recent years but a horse I would rather watch and learn a little more today.
Ortea was originally a booked ride for Cathy Gannon but Callan is in the saddle now. Evans has gone well with his two-year-olds this season but he has a lot of early runners which raises his profile when in truth he can be rather hit and miss at times.
Egyptian Cross is best watched.
A difficult race to assess. At the prices on offer I would much rather take a watching brief.
HCE: ''Tom Dascombe got off the mark with his two-year-olds for the season with Marford Missile who was quite professional from the stalls. Shevington was slow away and then ran on well in the furlong. He would have gone close if not losing a couple of lengths at the off. Linda Stubbs' Forevertheoptimist is a big juvenile and ran a game race in 3rd.''
A tricky race.
Richard Fahey and Tom Dascombe are both capable of winning on debut and likelier types.
Shevington cost £20,000 as a yearling. David Armstrong has owned a number of talented juveniles in his time and Fahey has a fair strike rate at Newcastle.
Tom Dascombe had his first runner yesterday, which finished 2nd. This talented trainer had a poor season by his standards last year and will be hoping for much better this term. His statistics for the last few years make interesting reading because his fancied runners attain a better win rate on debut than their second starts, which is quite unusual. This factor suggests that Dascombe's youngsters are fit and ready to run and placed to have a fighting chance. Marford Missile cost £14,000 as a yearling and related to prolific winner Kipchak.
Linda Stubbs is a very talented trainer and often overlooked. However, her juveniles often improve a good deal for the experience, which may be a stumbling block for Forevertheoptimist. Stubbs has a fair win rate with Fallon and they make a intriguing partnership. The stable has a 30% win rate at the course in recent years but a horse I would rather watch and learn a little more today.
Ortea was originally a booked ride for Cathy Gannon but Callan is in the saddle now. Evans has gone well with his two-year-olds this season but he has a lot of early runners which raises his profile when in truth he can be rather hit and miss at times.
Egyptian Cross is best watched.
A difficult race to assess. At the prices on offer I would much rather take a watching brief.
HCE: ''Tom Dascombe got off the mark with his two-year-olds for the season with Marford Missile who was quite professional from the stalls. Shevington was slow away and then ran on well in the furlong. He would have gone close if not losing a couple of lengths at the off. Linda Stubbs' Forevertheoptimist is a big juvenile and ran a game race in 3rd.''
Thursday, 7 April 2011
Grand National Guest Writer - It's not the centaur
HCE goes GRAND NATIONAL CRAZY!
Wednesday, 6 April 2011
Quick Note: That Just Got Bigger
Just the two races tomorrow: 2:10 Ripon & 5:55 Kempton.
I'm presently working on my next article for May's issue of the Racing Ahead publication. It is a mixed bag of promising juveniles - my super seven. Well, as super sevenish as they can be at this time of the year. Writing for a monthly is difficult. Give a form horse and it runs before the edition is out; give a debutantes and it never gets to the race course. I'm going to give Henry [Cecil] a call and see what he can tell me about his two-year-olds. Joke! I have my ear to the ground and hope to pinpoint a couple of talented debutantes, a few form horses, a precocious type who runs every week, a speculative priced selection and one or two dark horses. It all sounds very exciting, hey! It will be when I get past the introduction. By the time the deadline comes it will read like a Dick Francis novel. Well, one page from his novel. Gripping stuff.
I've been lucky enough to have Racing Post's Search Manager contact me about a text link regarding the Grand National. We don't get the chance to sell much advertising but it is always welcome. Considering we have over 16,000 page views a month we have something to offer. Anyone who is interested in advertising on High Class Equine is welcome contact us..
Looking forward to the two-year-old season. It is going to be a good year.
Oh yes, we are closing-in on a momentous day for HCE. Tomorrow - at some point - we will achieve our 1000th post.
Thanks for your support.
I'm presently working on my next article for May's issue of the Racing Ahead publication. It is a mixed bag of promising juveniles - my super seven. Well, as super sevenish as they can be at this time of the year. Writing for a monthly is difficult. Give a form horse and it runs before the edition is out; give a debutantes and it never gets to the race course. I'm going to give Henry [Cecil] a call and see what he can tell me about his two-year-olds. Joke! I have my ear to the ground and hope to pinpoint a couple of talented debutantes, a few form horses, a precocious type who runs every week, a speculative priced selection and one or two dark horses. It all sounds very exciting, hey! It will be when I get past the introduction. By the time the deadline comes it will read like a Dick Francis novel. Well, one page from his novel. Gripping stuff.
I've been lucky enough to have Racing Post's Search Manager contact me about a text link regarding the Grand National. We don't get the chance to sell much advertising but it is always welcome. Considering we have over 16,000 page views a month we have something to offer. Anyone who is interested in advertising on High Class Equine is welcome contact us..
Looking forward to the two-year-old season. It is going to be a good year.
Oh yes, we are closing-in on a momentous day for HCE. Tomorrow - at some point - we will achieve our 1000th post.
Thanks for your support.
Watch Mick Channon's 2yo On The Gallops
In terms of our work videos, gallops can be viewed by clicking on the relative icons below. If you cannot find the horse you are looking for, you can use the search gallops feature. Simply enter the horses name into the search engine and click "search".
Our gallop videos feature work mornings which take place every Tuesday and Friday on either the Summer or Winter ground.
To the East of West Ilsley, Hodcott Down (Winter Ground) features the six furlong woodchip gallop, the mainstay of the year-round operation. It also has grass chutes covering five, six and seven furlongs, with "Gilbert's Gallop" providing probably the stiffest test of all the grass gallops on the Downs. There are also grass chutes used primarily for bunching up the yearlings in the winter months, covering about four furlongs each.
The Summer Ground, or Sheep Down, lies to the North West of the Village and provides a vast array of different challenges, including a left handed Derby trial gallop and the only flat gallop in the surrounding area. The "Trial Ground" follows the spine of the Ridgeway for the best part of two miles before finishing at the highest point of Berkshire, affectionately known as Stotsman's Knob.
The helicopter video on this page and Mick's accompanying commentary, gives you a clearer insight into the gallops at West Ilsley.
HCE: ''This is a great facility.''
2:20 Nottingham (6th April) - Result
An EBF Novice Stakes over 5f 13y.
A mix of colts and fillies, predominantly debutantes, with three form horses, including a winner.
Dijarvo* made a pleasing debut for Tony Carroll. This filly by Iceman ran on with enthusiasm to win with something to spare. It is never easy to judge a winning performance because there could be a lot more to come. However, this could be a test. The main concern with the Wolverhampton form comes from the restrictive nature of the race. Make no mistake, it was very restricted with the majority of the field cheap purchases. The second placed, Queen Of The Hop, has been beaten with ease on her next start. I stated on the day that Dijarvo's first race may have been a seller in everything but name. It is still early days but it does bring concerns. The key point, is how easily did Dijarvo win? How much better was she compared to the others? Carroll's filly has not been hammered with a 2lb penalty but she does have to compete against bigger, stronger colts. An intriguing juveniles - with potential - but one I would rather watch than bet.
David Evans has done well with his juveniles this campaign. Choice Of Remark was fancied on debut but had little answer to the easy winner, Miss Work Of Art, who looks a fair prospect. The form of the Lingfield race looks fair with the fourth and fifth running well since. In fact, it was the Dancing Lord who left Queen Of The Hop standing at Folkestone, which brings some doubt about the performance of Dijarvo. Choice Of Remark looked quite straight, although will be better for the experience, which is a huge advantage against the debutantes. This chestnut colt by Choisir is likely to run well and must have place claims at least.
The Brocklesby Conditions Stakes looks to be a good source of winners. Mick Channon has a huge string of two-year-olds and Triggerlo has claims today. This son of Piccolo was a relatively cheap yearling at 9,000gns but he is a good-looking colt. After a slow start at Doncaster he was always on the back foot but made progress throughout the race. That experience will see him well today and with a better start will shows his true colours.
The debutantes have their work cut out against proven, experience opposition. However, it doesn't pay to be too dogmatic in Stakes races because it can often be a sign that trainers hold some hope for these entrants. Latte, trained by Linda Stubbs, was only a cheap buy but connections have done very well in previous years with the likes of Taurian, Pycian & even the modest Huxaar won at two. Generally, Stubbs' improve for the run and even with Fallon booked to ride, is probably best watched.
Another who might just go well at a price is Sonko. Tim Pitt knows how to train a two-year-old to win on debut.
An intriguing race.
*Dijarvo (NR)
HCE: ''A surpise package in The Penny Horse, trained by Stan Moore. There was stable confidence and backed from 20/1 - 12/1. Moore was interviewed on RUK and had little doubt the juvenile has ability although its share of temperament reading between the lines. Choice Of Remark and Triggerlo seemed to run their races. Latte showed good speed and quite an attractive juvenile.
A mix of colts and fillies, predominantly debutantes, with three form horses, including a winner.
Dijarvo* made a pleasing debut for Tony Carroll. This filly by Iceman ran on with enthusiasm to win with something to spare. It is never easy to judge a winning performance because there could be a lot more to come. However, this could be a test. The main concern with the Wolverhampton form comes from the restrictive nature of the race. Make no mistake, it was very restricted with the majority of the field cheap purchases. The second placed, Queen Of The Hop, has been beaten with ease on her next start. I stated on the day that Dijarvo's first race may have been a seller in everything but name. It is still early days but it does bring concerns. The key point, is how easily did Dijarvo win? How much better was she compared to the others? Carroll's filly has not been hammered with a 2lb penalty but she does have to compete against bigger, stronger colts. An intriguing juveniles - with potential - but one I would rather watch than bet.
David Evans has done well with his juveniles this campaign. Choice Of Remark was fancied on debut but had little answer to the easy winner, Miss Work Of Art, who looks a fair prospect. The form of the Lingfield race looks fair with the fourth and fifth running well since. In fact, it was the Dancing Lord who left Queen Of The Hop standing at Folkestone, which brings some doubt about the performance of Dijarvo. Choice Of Remark looked quite straight, although will be better for the experience, which is a huge advantage against the debutantes. This chestnut colt by Choisir is likely to run well and must have place claims at least.
The Brocklesby Conditions Stakes looks to be a good source of winners. Mick Channon has a huge string of two-year-olds and Triggerlo has claims today. This son of Piccolo was a relatively cheap yearling at 9,000gns but he is a good-looking colt. After a slow start at Doncaster he was always on the back foot but made progress throughout the race. That experience will see him well today and with a better start will shows his true colours.
The debutantes have their work cut out against proven, experience opposition. However, it doesn't pay to be too dogmatic in Stakes races because it can often be a sign that trainers hold some hope for these entrants. Latte, trained by Linda Stubbs, was only a cheap buy but connections have done very well in previous years with the likes of Taurian, Pycian & even the modest Huxaar won at two. Generally, Stubbs' improve for the run and even with Fallon booked to ride, is probably best watched.
Another who might just go well at a price is Sonko. Tim Pitt knows how to train a two-year-old to win on debut.
An intriguing race.
*Dijarvo (NR)
HCE: ''A surpise package in The Penny Horse, trained by Stan Moore. There was stable confidence and backed from 20/1 - 12/1. Moore was interviewed on RUK and had little doubt the juvenile has ability although its share of temperament reading between the lines. Choice Of Remark and Triggerlo seemed to run their races. Latte showed good speed and quite an attractive juvenile.
Tuesday, 5 April 2011
Brocklesby: Update
After the success of our article published in this month's Racing Ahead magazine, HCE is pleased to note the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes continues to be a great source of future winners. For this reason we decided to publish the first entry stage declarations because these juveniles are worthy of your consideration. Those highlighted have already won and there will be more to come.
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3:40 WILLIAMHILL.COM BROCKLESBY CONDITIONS STAKES (CLASS 4)(2yo) 19 runners 5f Good CH4 Race Conditions: £10,000 guaranteed For 2yo Weights colts and geldings 8st 11lb; fillies 8st 6lb Penalties each Class 4 race won 4lb; for each Class 3 race won 6lb; for each Class 1 or 2 race won 8lb (penalties cumulative and maximum penalty 10lb) Entries 19 pay £ 50
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NO. FORM HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 Adranian 2 8-11 David Evans44 Neil Callan — — —
2 Crowning Star 2 8-11 J S Moore43 — — —
3 2 Farang Kondiew 2 8-11 Declan Carroll Neil Farley5 — — —
4 3 He´s So Cool 7 2 8-11 Bill Turner100 Kieren Fox3 — 72 70
5 Idler 2 8-11 Mark Johnston55 Silvestre De Sousa — — —
6 1 Jimmy The Lollipop 2 8-11 Kevin Ryan50 Phillip Makin — — —
7 Joey Hayes 2 8-11 Noel Quinlan40 Adam Kirby — — —
8 King Fong 2 8-11 John Ryan57 Michael O'Connell3 — — —
9 Our Boy Jack 2 8-11 Richard Fahey25 — — —
10 Outlaw Torn 2 8-11 Alan McCabe31 Robert Winston — — —
11 Prince Gabrial 2 8-11 David Nicholls88 Adrian Nicholls — — —
12 Silverheels 2 8-11 Paul Cole100 — — —
13 5 Snowed In 7 2 8-11 J S Moore43 — 43 40
14 Triggerlo 2 8-11 Mick Channon67 — — —
15 Tyre Giant Dot Com 2 8-11 Geoffrey Oldroyd100 Tom Eaves — — —
16 1 Redair 7 2 8-10 David Evans44 Cathy Gannon — 97 97
17 Beau Mistral 2 8-6 Paul Green Silvestre De Sousa — — —
18 2 Bubbly Ballerina 7 2 8-6 Alan Bailey100 Declan Cannon5 — 94 94
19 Mousie 2 8-6 Alan McCabe31 Nicky Mackay — — —
MORE INFO:MY NOTESSTATSORRPRTOPSPEEDPAST
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3:40 WILLIAMHILL.COM BROCKLESBY CONDITIONS STAKES (CLASS 4)(2yo) 19 runners 5f Good CH4 Race Conditions: £10,000 guaranteed For 2yo Weights colts and geldings 8st 11lb; fillies 8st 6lb Penalties each Class 4 race won 4lb; for each Class 3 race won 6lb; for each Class 1 or 2 race won 8lb (penalties cumulative and maximum penalty 10lb) Entries 19 pay £ 50
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NO. FORM HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 Adranian 2 8-11 David Evans44 Neil Callan — — —
2 Crowning Star 2 8-11 J S Moore43 — — —
3 2 Farang Kondiew 2 8-11 Declan Carroll Neil Farley5 — — —
4 3 He´s So Cool 7 2 8-11 Bill Turner100 Kieren Fox3 — 72 70
5 Idler 2 8-11 Mark Johnston55 Silvestre De Sousa — — —
6 1 Jimmy The Lollipop 2 8-11 Kevin Ryan50 Phillip Makin — — —
7 Joey Hayes 2 8-11 Noel Quinlan40 Adam Kirby — — —
8 King Fong 2 8-11 John Ryan57 Michael O'Connell3 — — —
9 Our Boy Jack 2 8-11 Richard Fahey25 — — —
10 Outlaw Torn 2 8-11 Alan McCabe31 Robert Winston — — —
11 Prince Gabrial 2 8-11 David Nicholls88 Adrian Nicholls — — —
12 Silverheels 2 8-11 Paul Cole100 — — —
13 5 Snowed In 7 2 8-11 J S Moore43 — 43 40
14 Triggerlo 2 8-11 Mick Channon67 — — —
15 Tyre Giant Dot Com 2 8-11 Geoffrey Oldroyd100 Tom Eaves — — —
16 1 Redair 7 2 8-10 David Evans44 Cathy Gannon — 97 97
17 Beau Mistral 2 8-6 Paul Green Silvestre De Sousa — — —
18 2 Bubbly Ballerina 7 2 8-6 Alan Bailey100 Declan Cannon5 — 94 94
19 Mousie 2 8-6 Alan McCabe31 Nicky Mackay — — —
MORE INFO:MY NOTESSTATSORRPRTOPSPEEDPAST
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Quick Note...
Just the two races tomorrow: 2:20 Nottingham & 2:40 Beverley - a Novice Stakes race and Maiden Auction respectively.
2:20 Kempton (5th April) - Result
Disappointing to see a small field for this restricted maiden auction.
Richard Hannon has run a couple of juveniles this season but not had a winner. That will soon change. Mrs Mop, a daughter of Amadeus Wolf, is likely to go off favourite and has a leading chance.
That's Dangerous is the first two-year-old runner from Roger Charlton's stable. This is what Charlton has to say about his representative:
'' I don't have many early two-year-old types in the yard but one of my Doncaster Sales purchases (9000gns) is ready for his first outing in the 2.20pm at Kempton this afternoon. I was attracted to That's Dangerous at the sales as he was a great walker and looked like his sire Three Valleys (USA) who, it should be remembered, beat the two-year-old course record previously held by Mill Reef when he won The Coventry Stakes in a canter in 2003. Sadly That's Dangerous will never be as good as his sire who was 'brilliant ' but he's a tough,good moving colt who hasn't missed a days exercise since August. He will be suited by going up in distance in the future as he has plenty of stamina from both sides of his pedigree. His half brother by Mujahid won 3 races in Italy and was placed in a Listed race over 12 furlongs and his dam St Edith was by Desert King who won The Irish Derby.''
In general, Charlton's juveniles improve for their debut run but his relatively fancied runners still maintain a fair win rate. In such a small field there is always a slight concern individuals are forced into such betting guides and a horse I would rather watch.
The main reason for my initial disappointment of such a small field is because Snowed In - trained by Stan Moore - could have been a good, speculative bet. Sadly, with few juveniles in opposition, this rather scuppers this chance. This gelding by Dark Angel was clueless on debut. However, there may be good reason to hold some optimism. Interestingly, this juvenile was one of two entrants for the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes. That point alone is worth noting. Moore has done very well with similarly entered juveniles in previous seasons and it would be no surprise to see a much-improved performance. At 5/1 or so, it isn't really an attractive betting proposition.
Last of the four runners is Multi Blessing. Alan Jarvis has a poor strike rate with his debutantes but he is a capable trainer and should be noted if substantially backed .
HCE: ''A messy race with Multi Blessing hampering Mrs Mop at the start. Snowed In improved from debut and was slightly hampered in the home straight but ran on well to hold the persistent challenge of That's Dangerous who didn't help his cause by a tardy start.''
Richard Hannon has run a couple of juveniles this season but not had a winner. That will soon change. Mrs Mop, a daughter of Amadeus Wolf, is likely to go off favourite and has a leading chance.
That's Dangerous is the first two-year-old runner from Roger Charlton's stable. This is what Charlton has to say about his representative:
'' I don't have many early two-year-old types in the yard but one of my Doncaster Sales purchases (9000gns) is ready for his first outing in the 2.20pm at Kempton this afternoon. I was attracted to That's Dangerous at the sales as he was a great walker and looked like his sire Three Valleys (USA) who, it should be remembered, beat the two-year-old course record previously held by Mill Reef when he won The Coventry Stakes in a canter in 2003. Sadly That's Dangerous will never be as good as his sire who was 'brilliant ' but he's a tough,good moving colt who hasn't missed a days exercise since August. He will be suited by going up in distance in the future as he has plenty of stamina from both sides of his pedigree. His half brother by Mujahid won 3 races in Italy and was placed in a Listed race over 12 furlongs and his dam St Edith was by Desert King who won The Irish Derby.''
In general, Charlton's juveniles improve for their debut run but his relatively fancied runners still maintain a fair win rate. In such a small field there is always a slight concern individuals are forced into such betting guides and a horse I would rather watch.
The main reason for my initial disappointment of such a small field is because Snowed In - trained by Stan Moore - could have been a good, speculative bet. Sadly, with few juveniles in opposition, this rather scuppers this chance. This gelding by Dark Angel was clueless on debut. However, there may be good reason to hold some optimism. Interestingly, this juvenile was one of two entrants for the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes. That point alone is worth noting. Moore has done very well with similarly entered juveniles in previous seasons and it would be no surprise to see a much-improved performance. At 5/1 or so, it isn't really an attractive betting proposition.
Last of the four runners is Multi Blessing. Alan Jarvis has a poor strike rate with his debutantes but he is a capable trainer and should be noted if substantially backed .
HCE: ''A messy race with Multi Blessing hampering Mrs Mop at the start. Snowed In improved from debut and was slightly hampered in the home straight but ran on well to hold the persistent challenge of That's Dangerous who didn't help his cause by a tardy start.''
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