Tuesday 12 April 2011

3:40 Southwell (12th April) - Result

A 5f sprint for colts & fillies - an open race.

Two juveniles have race experience which confers an advantage today. Dougie Boy ran at Leicester on debut, trailing behind easy winner Jack Who's He. The second, Dawn Lightning, has won a small race since. This son of Trade Fair is a sizable juvenile and an out-and-out galloper. One of the most noticeable features is that Dougie Boy has a pronounced knee action, which suggests this surface will be more suiting. Bill Turner does well with his early-season two year olds and he has respectable win and place statistics with fancied runners on their second start. In what probably amounts to a poor race, this bay colt should be there about.

The other horse to have raced is Mousie, trained by Alan McCabe. This filly held an engagement for the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes but made her debut at Wolverhampton. A cheap purchase, she ran creditably, however, that looked a lowly race and of a very restrictive nature. It doesn't inspire confidence to see that the second that day - Nannerl - has since been entered to run in a Selling race. Mousie may improve and this fitness will be a plus but more may be needed.

The few of the debutantes are interesting for a number of reasons - mostly negative.

Mark Johnston has had a few runners this term and all have disappointed. From studying the past few years, his better juveniles appear at the start of May. Manderston has been entered to run in a Selling race, which must be considered a negative. This factor is likely to have been missed by many because it isn't common knowledge. That said, it doesn't guarantee this son of Araafa cannot win although I certainly wouldn't bet on this bay colt.

Another juvenile quite fancied in the betting is David Barron's Elnadin colt, Mitchum. A half-brother to Pepper Lane, this 4,000gns buy comes from a stable that can have a talented juvenile. Although his fancied debutantes are often placed win statistics suggest he may not be heading the field.

Cotes Du Rhone & Abercandy hail from David Evans stable. Neither are fancied in the betting at this time but support would be a pointer but a watching brief today.

Darnatheun is one of the more interesting debutantes trained by Paul D'Arcy. He is a talented trainer and his two year old often go well on debut. Being a gelding and wearing a visor first time suggest this son of Librettist is a wayward character. However, D'Arcy features fair place rate with his fancied juveniles on debut and if substantially backed would have each way claims.

A difficult race to call with the majority of the field featuring more negatives than positives. Dougie Boy doesn't look the fastest horse on four legs but has place claims. He may be the one to beat. Manderston is one to be careful with after being entered for a plating race.

HCE: ''The statistics didn't suggest Mitchum would win (although he had fair place claims) but he won his with ease. An attractive horse, with scope for improvement, he left his field toiling in his wake. Dougie Boy is a plodder and does nothing quickly but managed a place. Mousie ran ok for third. Manderston done little and the selling entry clearly indicated limited ability. A poor race - but impressive winner.