Friday 8 April 2011

2:20 Newcastle (8th April) - Result

A small field for this restricted auction race over 5f on good to soft ground.

A tricky race.

Richard Fahey and Tom Dascombe are both capable of winning on debut and likelier types.

Shevington cost £20,000 as a yearling. David Armstrong has owned a number of talented juveniles in his time and Fahey has a fair strike rate at Newcastle.

Tom Dascombe had his first runner yesterday, which finished 2nd. This talented trainer had a poor season by his standards last year and will be hoping for much better this term. His statistics for the last few years make interesting reading because his fancied runners attain a better win rate on debut than their second starts, which is quite unusual. This factor suggests that Dascombe's youngsters are fit and ready to run and placed to have a fighting chance. Marford Missile cost £14,000 as a yearling and related to prolific winner Kipchak.

Linda Stubbs is a very talented trainer and often overlooked. However, her juveniles often improve a good deal for the experience, which may be a stumbling block for Forevertheoptimist. Stubbs has a fair win rate with Fallon and they make a intriguing partnership. The stable has a 30% win rate at the course in recent years but a horse I would rather watch and learn a little more today.

Ortea was originally a booked ride for Cathy Gannon but Callan is in the saddle now. Evans has gone well with his two-year-olds this season but he has a lot of early runners which raises his profile when in truth he can be rather hit and miss at times.

Egyptian Cross is best watched.

A difficult race to assess. At the prices on offer I would much rather take a watching brief.

HCE: ''Tom Dascombe got off the mark with his two-year-olds for the season with Marford Missile who was quite professional from the stalls. Shevington was slow away and then ran on well in the furlong. He would have gone close if not losing a couple of lengths at the off. Linda Stubbs' Forevertheoptimist is a big juvenile and ran a game race in 3rd.''