Friday 15 April 2011

1:35 Newbury (15th April)

A Maiden over 5f.

With fifteen runners declared this is the biggest maiden of the season so far featuring a field full of colts/geldings and a solitary filly.

This field of debutantes will be assessed by the market, trainer data and related pointers.

Regal Entrance is the first two year old from Jeremy Noseda. A 100,000gns purchase & owned by Cheveley Park Stud indicate potential. Unsurprisingly, Noseda's juvenile is fancied in the betting. Such is his reputation that over half of his debutantes were priced 13/2 & less in the last few years. Within this betting guide juveniles have a fair win and place rate. Dettori has a good strike rate with the trainer although the course statistics are not so impressive. The use of visor first time is something of a quandary.

Paul Cole's two-year-old horses are going well and Commissar has a number of positives. A representative from the Cole stable said:  ''Commissar has entries at both Newmarket and Newbury in potentially hot races. He seems to go well on the gallops, and we hope he can translate this to the track as we’ve admired him for a while''. I thought the use of the word ''admired'' was an interesting term. Also, it is worth noting that this colt was entered to run in a stakes race, which often indicates promise. I had an additional study of Cole's juveniles and his debutantes often fall into two categories: win or unplaced. He has a fair win rate with his fancied juveniles but if plumping for a bet I would rather go for a straight win. It is worth pointing out that Cole has very few debutantes win when priced over 8/1 and this is may be a deciding factor today. The stable were represented by Memen last year, who was a talented juvenile. He improved for the run. Commissar is an intriguing runner and I get the feeling is held in some regard. However, it is never easy to win on debut, especially in a potentially competitive race. Interesting.

Chunky Diamond is relatively fancied on the exchanges. Peter Chapple-Hyam is very unusual in that his fancied juveniles have a better win rate on debut than they do on their second start. Clearly this is an indication that his two-year-old horses are primed to go well on their racecourse bow. If priced 13/2 & less this youngster has fair win and place claims.

Jane Chapple-Hyam won this race last year with Klammer. Trainers often follow tradition and although she is difficult to assess, can win on debut. Her early-seaon juveniles can go well and if Coach Montana is backed it would be a sign of confidence. Fallon is a positive jockey booking, too.

Of the others, Hannon's pair: Magic City and Sixx* are worth noting in the betting. Hannon said: "We always like bringing our two-year-olds here, and we run two nice juvenles in the opener, Magic City, who is by Elusive City, and Sixx (good beer that, boss!), who is by Royal Applause. Both have been shaping up with a lot of promise at home, but there are 13 others in the race and I am sure that their trainers are equally optimistic.''

Arabian Falcon has been given a stakes race entry and is worth noting on his next start.

A difficult race to have any strong opinions although the betting is key to the chances of many. Regal Entrance, Chunky Diamond & Magic City have fair place claims if fancied in the betting. Commissar is another to respect but may need the experience if priced over 8/1. If backed, Coach Montana has claims, too.

*NR Sixx

HCE:''A field full of attractive juveniles and an easy winner Magic City. Hannon has targeted this race with a few talented youngsters in the past and this colt will probably be heading for Royal Ascot. Signifer ran well in second and will have little trouble winning, while Commissar is a colt with size and scope. After being slightly outpaced, he ran on well and has a decent future. Sympathies to Cheveley Park Stud whose Regal Entrance looked to sustain an injury.''