Tuesday 4 August 2015

2:00 Chepstow Racing Tips (5th Aug) TRUVAPE MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

An intriguing maiden. At most a four-horse race. Not really telling you much there. Sirajiah was fancied to go well on debut for William Haggas but needed to be flying to beat WhatdoIwantthatfor. I'm not sure this drop back to 5f will suit. However, with a Lowther Stakes (Group 2) and Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) entry has to be respected. 

Little Voice has been given a string of lofty entries but I can't help thinking this daughter of Scat Daddy is better on the gallops. The step up to 6f at Windsor, perhaps, didn't suit and this bay filly was put in her place by Justice Lass.

Rosie Royce and Apasiona contested the same race over 5f at Sandown. The former trained by Henry Candy was fancied in the betting but had no luck in running. She coasted home and is clearly capable of much better. I'd expect a bold show. 

Apasiona is held in some regard by Alan McCabe although his two-year-olds have been pretty poor this season and with a few gambles going astray I have the feeling their string hasn't lived up to earlier hopes.

I'm pretty sure connections of Sirajiah and Little Voice will be expecting a win. Little Voice is held in high regard but has had her chances and I would take a watching brief. Sirajiah will be primed. I wonder if 5f will be a touch too fast. On statistics Rosie Royce has the best chance - decent win and place claims although lacking Group entries.

At the odds I would have a small each way bet on Rosie Royce if priced 13/2 & less SP (no bet outside this guide). At 5/1 should be a no-lose bet if placed and hopeful of more. 

5:20 Newcastle - A very restricted race type. These limited races often go to a form horses and Dark Confidant is likely to go well for Richard Guest. This son of Royal Applause ran well on debut - traveled with ease - but slightly disappointed when dropped back to 6f. That shorter trip tapped his pace and probably made for a weak finish. I'd expect this bay gelding to travel with authority and touch shorter odds in running. Must have strong each way claims. Interesting to see how Micheal Dods' debutante goes. 

Wayside Magic is a cheap purchase and gelded. Denton Hall have good place claims with their two-year-old debutantes and they often go well at Newcastle and like softer going. I'd probably watch this horse unless 16/1+. Dark Confidant is a decent each-way bet. Might be worth a small rev f/c with Wayside Magic to pay a lot of money.  

7:10 Kempton - Nemoralia is held in high regard by Jeremy Noseda and withdrawn last time which suggests connections want to make this race count. This daughter of More Than Ready made a promising debut and sterling second start at Newmarket. She is sure to run well but the down side is the price. Not much meat on the bone. I'd hold out and hope this youngster drifts in the betting and step in if 1/1 is available. 

An outsider which may be worth a small bet is Henry Spiller's Star Glimmer. This daughter of Zodiac is a cheap buy for the rookie trainer and the only sign of ability is the knowledge she has been given a stakes entry. At odds of 100/1 she may get a place.      

2:00 Chepstow - Rosie Royce 5/1 [Paddy Power] small ew 3rd 
5:20 Newcastle - Dark Confidant 4/1 (NAP) decent ew bet 3rd
7:10 Kempton   - Nemoralia 8/11  bet if evens is available 1st (touched evens exchanges)

Small ew treble