Showing posts with label Nottingham. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nottingham. Show all posts

Tuesday, 3 November 2015

1:20 Nottingham Racing Tips (4th Nov) B&M INSTALLATIONS MAIDEN STAKES (Div I) (CLASS 5) (2yo)


Not a great deal of time so I will try to keep this brief. Saying that it will probably turn out to be the longest post of my life. 

The Graduate is held in some regard and better should be expected. If priced in single figures I'd give Balding's two-year-old fair each-way claims.

West Drive is another colt who is well regarded at home although was sent out on debut clearly needing the run. Varian's charge went well at Newbury even though forgotten in the betting. Considering this son of Sea The Stars beat The Graduate it isn't surprising to see him shorter odds. It will be interesting to see how the market goes with regard to the two hopes. Connections will be looking for victory.

Karl Burke is one of my favourite trainers because he has made me lots of money over the years. Biodynamic races in the familiar silks of Hubert John Strecker [pictured]. This son of New Approach comes from a decent family and cost 80,000GNS at the yearling sales. This bay colt held an entry for the Champagne Stakes (Group 2). Just one of four entries made by Burke for this race. There must have been a setback or two along the way. The betting is worth noting for this juvenile and if priced 10/1 & less has fair each-way claims. 

Conclusion: Not the easiest of races to access. Good Trip should be respected for Saeed Bin Suroor, who can win on debut with blue bloods. I will focus of the trio mentioned (above). The betting will be the best guide for Biodynamic. If priced in single figures it would bring encouragement with claims to hit the frame. West Drive is a progressive colt and already beating The Graduate will be seen as the better of those two. Varian's charge will be primed for a big run but it might be a mistake to consider The Graduate is lesser. The betting could be insightful and if there is money for the Mariscotti horse, returning an SP of single-figure odds, I would be tempted to have an each-way bet. If weak in the betting I'd take a watching brief.

5:10 Kempton - Qamarain should take all the beating for Brian Meehan. Probably priced to chance but may be worth a wager if drifting in the betting.  




Wednesday, 29 July 2015

2:55 Nottingham Racing Tips (30th July) BREEDERS BACKING RACING EBF MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)


Just a quick note on one or two as no time as usual. 

2:55 Nottingham - Dream Mover will go well for Marco Botti and connections Team Valor. I feel like cheering just thinking about their name. This son of first-season sire Dream Ahead made a lovely introduction and pretty fancied in the betting when third behind Melabi at Doncaster. He cost 160,000gns at the Breeze-up sales and will improve for that first run. Middleman is making his debut and held in some regard by John Gosden. This home bred should be respected. Both are priced about 5/2 [Wednesday evening] which doesn't look great value. I'd hope Dream Mover drifts a touch in the betting and if available at each way prices would be a decent bet. 

4:20 Goodwood - A giant field of eighteen two-year-olds. *Haggle ran well on debut in a class race and must go well for Luca Cumani and Bedford Lodge. I'd be looking for an each way price as there are a few challengers. Notary is a stiff opponent. Of the debutantes Lady Perignon is something of a talking horse for Andrew Balding. She cost 185,000euros at the yearling sales, racing in the silks of Mrs Fitri Hay. I must admit a good few of Balding's two-year-old debutantes have run poorly this season, which tempers enthusiasm. They can hit the mark if priced 10/1 & less so the betting is the best guide. This daughter of Poet's Voice is, perhaps, best watched but worth noting for future.     

2:55 Nottingham - Dream Mover (ew) if available 6/4 1st (was bigger early)
4:20 Goodwood  - *Haggle (ew) if available (NR)

Friday, 17 April 2015

4:50 Nottingham Racing Tips (18th April) WATCH RACINGUK ON SKY CHANNEL 432 MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)


A Maiden Stakes over 5f 13y on good to firm ground. Seven two year olds take part: six colts and one filly. Two horses have race experience. Last year, this race was won by Burtonwood on his second start. His best effort came in the Woodcote Stakes (Listed) at Epson, where he finished fourth behind Baitha Alga. 

Raj To Riches, trained by David Evans, was an unlucky loser of debut at Windsor when caught on the line. This son of Iffraaj makes a quick return in what could be a more competitive race. This chestnut colt was well backed that day. It was a significant pointer being entered to run in the Brocklesby Stakes. Raj To Riches looked primed to go on debut, on his toes in the paddock and behind the stalls, athletic if not sparingly made. Flying from the stalls, this speedy type looked certain to win but showed signs of inexperience in the closing two furlongs. It is difficult to assess the form of that race although I was left with the feeling that most needed the race. David Evans' runners have fair win and place claims on their second start when priced 7/2 & less. He looks the type of horse who will break well and hope to hold that advantage to the line. 

Sir Dudley ran in the Brocklesby Stakes, finishing someway down the field in fifth place. This Irish son of Arcano is out of a winning mare. Trained by James Given in the familiar silks of The Cool Silk Partnership, he was quite well backed with a starting price of 9/2. This February foal is a fair looking juvenile but ring rusty, outpaced and never in contention. It could well be a positive he was fancied in the betting but he needs to find ample improvement to figure here. The stable have a poor win and place strike rate with fancied horses on their second start.

Five debutantes make intriguing opposition from established stables. 

The only filly in the field is Caitie, trained by Paul Cole, owned by loyal patron A H Robinson. This bay daughter of first-season sire Canford Cliffs is out of a twice Listed-placed mare [The Shrew], She was unplaced in the 1000 Guineas. Caitie was purchased by Oliver Cole for 40,000gns at the yearling sales. The betting is the best guide. Debutantes from this stable have fair win and place claims when priced 8/1 & less. However, few horses win at bigger odds. 

Tom Dascombe is a talented trainer of two year olds and very much a gambling stable. Fresh Arugula is an early foal, a bay colt sired by Fast Company out of a twice-winning mare. He cost 55,000gns at the yearling sales. Manor House Stables often go well with horses making their racecourse bow and if priced 7/1 & less (generally 11/2 & less) they feature fair win and place claims. 

Gittan is a son of Kodiac out of a poor mare. This bay colt cost 55,000gns at the yearling sales, rising in value from a foal. Owners Saleh Al Homaizi & Imad Al Sagar have seen their racing silks adorn talents such as Danchai, Toofi & Justineo. Richard Hannon's stable has such a vast string of two year olds that they should always be respected. I find this stable difficult to call but if fancied in the betting has claims.

Mark Johnston is another trainer with a mighty string of juveniles. His team have been going well since the first day of the Flat turf season. Riflescope is a January foal sired by Raven's Pass out of a winning mare. This colt cost 130,000gns  [52,000gns foal] when purchased by John Ferguson Bloodstock at the yearling sales. Kingsley House Stable have plenty of form lines to asses their juveniles although I find them tricky to pinpoint on debut. On breeding, this bay colt may need further.

Godolphin have fielded three juveniles this season - all relatively fancied in the betting - but all have trailed home either last or second from last. Charlie Appleby has trained this lackluster trio but there may be hope with Seastrom. This son of Oasis Dream is out of a talented mare [Seta] who won on debut, third in May Hill Stakes (Goup 2), unplaced in the 1000 Guineas. She was highly tried at Group class, while winning three times at Listed. This colt was purchased at the yearling sales for 425,000gns. A beautifully bred juvenile who is worthy of respect.

Conclusion: A fascinating race. Raj To Riches sets the standard and bar a head-bob is a winner in a maiden race. There isn't much of this colt and he was primed for debut. Connections must have been peeved he lost that day and this looks a tougher race. The Windsor contest didn't look that competitive and most of the field needed the race. Evans two year old showed inexperienced when all but a winner, hanging and awkward in the closing stages. The apprentice is in the saddle to give every advantage. Evans is a canny stick and he will use their experience and set the pace hoping to gain an easy lead and hold all-comers at the death. If betting, I would lay your stake bet in-running at even money - praying you hold on! I would have concerns these may be better horses and experience will definitely be their trump card. It wouldn't surprise me if Sir Dudley has more ability than seen on debut in the Brocklesby. Given's stable have poor statistics with fancied runners on their second start which puts me off. I'd rather watch this horse and learn. With such a small field the betting may be skewed in trying to assess the debutantes. However, all should be respected if priced 7/1 & less. Godolphin's two year olds have looked poor this season but Seastrom is bred to be a decent colt and I would suspect he will go well. A watching brief for me. The main pointer is if backing Raj To Riches try and cover your bet if he gains an easy lead.   
     
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Tuesday, 7 October 2014

2:20 Nottingham Racing Tips (8th October) 32RED ON THE APP STORE EBF STALLIONS MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)


An EBF Maiden Stakes over 6f 15y on good ground. Seventeen two-year-olds take part: colts, geldings and four fillies. Ten juveniles are lightly raced in what looks a competitive heat. In many respects this isn't a race I would bet but one factor may always justify a small wager - a speculative price. Major Attitude could well have disappointed on debut when making his debut at Bath. Clive Cox often sends his better juveniles to make their debut at this course and it wouldn't be a surprise to learn this son of Major Cadeaux out of a winning, listed-raced mare has ability. This bay colt was purchased by the trainer for 40,000gns at Tattersalls October Sales 2013 (Book 2). This horse is a half-brother to the exceptionally talented Hearts Of Fire. In truth, this April foal had a mountain to climb starting off at Stakes class against a field of winning opponents on good to soft ground. To start 5/1 second-favourite suggests this horse had something of a reputation. After a tardy start, inexperience told, and it was soon apparent Major Attitude wouldn't press the likes of Elysian Flyer. This youngster is far from a confident selection. I'm hopeful this juvenile will be forgotten on the exchanges and at some point drift to huge prices. Time will tell if that is the case. I can see this colt being backed so may be worth a speculative punt at odds with the idea of laying at shorter prices closer to the off. 

Wednesday, 12 June 2013

2:00 Nottingham (13th June) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Stakes over 6f 15y on good to firm ground. Fifteen two-year-olds take part, ten raced, all colts bar three fillies. The betting is likely to be dictated by the interest in Saeed Bin Suroor's Chord Chart. The stable have been in good form with their juveniles and this son of Acclamation is a January foal out of a twice-raced mare who won on debut and a narrow loser at Listed class when trained by Barry Hills. Considering around half of the stable's two-year-old debutantes have a starting price of 13/2 & less the betting will not give the greatest insight, although they feature a respectable strike rate. The shorter the price the greater the chance. However, this bay colt will need to be wise and talented to win on his racecourse bow.

Bounty Hunter isn't the best of Tom Dascombe's juveniles but he is  good-looking son of Bahamian Bounty. This 42,000eur yearling purchase comes from a decent family where a number of siblings have fetched six-figure sums. He has raced three times and to be fair has been unlucky to have bumped into some talented horses and could quite well have won if finding an average maiden. Those recent defeats were creditable performances because some of his peers will be heading for Royal Ascot [Parbold, Toormore & Ertijaal]. It could just be the case that he slips under the radar and if touching speculative prices could be an fair each way bet.

On their Leicester form Know Your Name & Dylan's Centenary look held. 

Twentyfourseven has been relatively fancied on both starts but hasn't sparkled in races of a very restrictive nature. Racing in the familiar silks of Mrs Susan Roy, this colt needs to have disappointed last time to hold any hope here. He looks to need a step up in distance and a horse I wouldn't back.

Hustle Bustle showed much better pace last start and a strong filly but another horse who will be better suited by handicaps.

Khee Society, St Vincent, Slinky McVelvet, Finn Class & Volodina are all once raced and capable of improvement but need to have something of a transformation. The betting will be the best guide to their chances. If priced 13/2 & less they could hold claims but that would seem unlikely. 

A couple of debutantes worth noting are Overstep & Scottish Strand. 

The former is trained by Mark Johnston and a home bred son of Exceed And Excel. The mare was a Listed-class winner who ran consistently at pattern level. There is much to suggest this colt has promise although I always struggle to get a handle on this stable's debutantes. They are either easy winners or disappointing losers and for that reason I would take a watching brief.

Scottish Strand hails from Ed Walker's stable, a trainer who can ready a two-year-old on their first outing. This bay colt cost 70,000gns at the yearling sales and owned by Saif Ali who is no stranger to class horses. Being sired by Selkirk suggests a stiffer trip may be needed in time. However, the mare was a superb sprinter for Sir Mark Prescott, who won on debut, narrow loser in the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) and Group 3 winner at Chantilly, France. If well backed it would bring greater confidence. A horse worthy of note.  

Exceeder is another horse who could go well if priced 10/1 & less. Marco Botti can have debut winners - as seen this season - but he is another trainer who can be rather indifferent at times. His youngsters are often prone to a slow start on their racecourse bow, which makes life difficult. 

Village Cricket is best watched. 

Conclusion: For a one stop website for learning about betting on horse racing online we recommend BetOnHorseRaces.org. With a sizeable field of juveniles only a handful are worthy of greater inspection. Chord Chart will most likely start favourite. The stable have been in sparkling form with a number of two-year-old debut winners so they will have a good line to where they stand. If seriously backed, I would take this as the horse to beat. However, against a few experienced juveniles this colt will need to be sharp. It is never easy for any horse to win on their racecourse bow and for that reason others could make interesting each way selections. Bounty Hunter will be the major focus of attention. Tom Dascombe's colt has been unlucky to have competed against a number of talented horses. In many respects those defeats have made him look average but time may tell he can win a race or two. There is no doubt this youngster has his limitations and if there is a true talent in this field he will be looking for a place rather than a win. However, he is race fit, experienced and can make the running. If touching speculative prices I would be tempted to have an each way bet. Overstep, Exceeder & Scottish Strand look the best of the debutantes. The former would have to be a watching brief as Johnston's newcomers often fluff their lines. Exceeder could go well but may need the experience. Scottish Strand could go well if well backed.