The third week of the tipping competition. Its been a quiet month so far with handful of scorers and little in the way of points. The freebies are ruling the roost with Gareth & Glueythepig on 11pts. Danny is a gnat's whisker behind with 10pts.
But who is winning the pro ranks? Shukman is top with just 6pts. As I always say, a lead is a big lead. Considering no other pro player has a point he is probably laying back in the sun, drinking a pina colada and waiting for the field to actually show a little form. Other freebies to bag a touch of glory are Me Old Mum & Emanuel.
Still all to play for and I'm pretty sure someone will throw a stick of dynamite to set this competition alight. I'm sure most of you have heard a rumbling about our new website which is going to be dedicated to our tipping competition. It will go live from September. Take a look at Bloody Good Winner. Sadly the freebie competition will cease at that point but you are welcome to join the pro ranks. Considering I have given away free money to the tune of several hundred pounds it would be a nice thought to see a few taking the plunge. Deadline 1PM. Not late entries please as it causes me havoc.
Tipster selections:
1:25 Newbury - Bounce 2pt w (Longbow)Unp
1:40 Newmarket - Ken's Memory 2pt w (Emanuel)
1:50 Ripon - Mister Mischief 2pt w (Blue Dog)2nd
1:50 Ripon - Flying Pursuit 2pt w (Gareth)1st (8pts)
2:15 Newmarket - Iseemist 2pt w (Eric)2nd
2:25 Ripon - Amood 1pt ew (Rawnsley)Unp
2:50 Newmarket - Lacing 1pt ew (Racing Mama) 5th
2:50 Newmarket - Roosey 2pt w (Mark)Unp
3:00 Ripon - Piazon 1pt ew (Winter)3rd (9.25pts)
3:10 Newbury - Captain Bob 2pt w (Uncle Keith/Bob) 4th
3:15 Doncaster - Luso gold 2pt w (Me Old Mum)Unp
3:25 Newmarket - Awesome Quality 2pt w (HCE)4th
3:30 Ripon - Eccleston 2pt w (Jodonovan) Unp
3:30 Ripon - Spinatrix 2pt w (Capt Heathcliffe)Unp
3:30 Ripon - *Barnet Fair 2pt w (Davidson) 1st (10pts)
3:30 Ripon - Don't Touch 2pt w (Clint)1st (10pts)
3:30 Ripon - Spinatrix 1pt ew (Shukman)Unp
3:30 Ripon - Poyle Vinnie 2pt w (Glueythepig) Unp
3:45 Newbury - Here Comes When 2pt w (Danny) Unp
3:45 Newbury - Adaay 2pt w (OneEyeEnos) 1st (17pts)
4:25 Doncaster - Farlow 2pt w (Stephenson) 1st (15pts)
8:05 Lingfield - Cabuchon 2pt w (Bird) 6th
*NR - Placed on lowest number fav
Another long day - far too much racing for my liking. Stuck on the conveyor belt of equine inquisition. All good. Click on the banner above this post to visit our latest website. It's my aim to build 100 websites and if each makes a few thousand a year I will live the high life on the coast eating candy floss and toffee apples until I'm toothless. Oh the joys of pursuing your dream.
A couple of two-year-olds ran well Thursday - Bobby Wheeler held two entries on Group Horse and Clive Cox said today that they fancied him to go well on debut at Goodwood but the ground was a bit lively. Considering this son of Pivotal had been off course a couple of months I imagine he suffered sore shins. A lovely display at Salisbury although the race was nothing beyond ordinary being a Maiden Auction Stakes. He looks a good prospect who will be given pattern entries in the near future.
I went into town today and had a chat and tea with Eric of Eric Winner fame. I said to the sprint maestro that Group Horse is worth its weight in gold. Good to get out for a while although Gregg's is so noisy with screaming children, some nutter chatting on their phone on loud speaker and staff dropping crockery like it was going out of fashion, that I could hardly think. Moving on from there...
Tomorrow's cards. Ten two-year-old races. Too many. I will have a quick look to note any of interest.
2:20 Newbury - Justice Law ran well on debut in a valuable Ascot maiden. David Elsworth doesn't have many two-year-olds fancied in the betting when making their racecourse bow and on a statistical front has sound each way claims here. This grey colt was purchased at the Breeze-up sales by Elsworth for £100,000. A Mill Reef Stakes Group 2 entry and Racing Post Trophy Group 1 bring confidence. The Irish bred Tashweeq is held in some regard by connections and cost £150,000. 1st Justice Law 2/1
5:30 Newmarket - Michael Bell has been a touch quiet with his juveniles this season but Taurean Star made a promising introduction two weeks ago at Doncaster over this trip. This American bred son of Elnadin threatened to win that day before tiring in the closing stages. A good-looking bay, he is held in high regard at home and will be more professional on this second start. Bernie's Boy is a tough customer and Balding will fancy his chances to go one better after a couple of determined efforts. Probably a stronger field than your average Auction Maiden Stakes but this pair look lively contenders. I would back Taurean Star at each-way if odds are available. The pair may be worth a small f/c.
6:30 Newmarket - Culturati is a pretty classy colt and this is a stepping stone to pattern races. Should win.
A small ew treble: 1st, 2nd, 4th
2:20 Justice Law - each-way bet if prices allow 1st 2/1
5:30 taurean Star - each-way bet if prices allow 4th 3/1
May be worth a small ew yankee:
1:45 Newbury - Manson 2/1 NR
2:20 Newbury - Justice Law 3/1 1st
5:30 Newmarket - Taurean Star 7/2 4th [disappointing not placed]
6:30 Newmarket - Culturati 4/5 2nd
An exciting race. A few talking horses with plenty to say. I keep schmoozing about our top website Group Horse, which details the best two-year-olds in training. Well, if you had been keeping track of the the entries - building a picture of ability - you would be very interested in a few of these potential stars of the future.
A EBF Maiden Stakes over 6f on good to firm going. This looks a hot race. Why? Well, for starters we have a couple of stat' horses running who will set a fair level for these talented debutantes to strive.
Andrew Balding has been in pretty average form with his juvenile string this season, giving the impression they have a problem or two, but even saying that I would take note of their youngsters second start. Dark Shot was relatively fancied in a good maiden at Ascot. The win prize money was over £12,000 which is more than some Listed races. This son of Acclamation ran well beaten four-lengths after showing pace. Balding doesn't have the best strike rate here but this is a touch misleading. In general, his horses run well and often hit the frame. In addition, John Smith [owner] likes this course. The betting is key and with such competition this home bred will need to have something going for it to be priced 9/1 & less SP. If this bay colt is in that betting guide, I'd expect him to be placed if not win. If weak in the betting, take a watching brief.
One of the major debutantes is Taneen, trained by Roger Varian. This American son of Speightstown is held in high regard at Kremlin House Stables. Owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum, he cost $350,000 at the Keeneland September Sales 2014. A string of flashy Group entries details this February foal has ability. The dogs have been barking a couple must have escaped by the betting - priced fractional odds-on. Varian has a decent string of two-year-olds to measure this colt and if he starts at shorts odds it will take a mighty effort to beat him.
To throw a little more fuel on the fire Henry Candy makes a return to this course with Vibrant Chords who was headed in the final stride and in many ways a winner without a penalty. That may not have been the strongest of races but this handler is tough to beat with two-year-olds on their second start. If priced 13/2 & less SP has sound win and place claims.
An outsider who could well be a threat is Zhui Feng. Amanda Perrett doesn't have many two-year-olds and by all accounts a poor strike rate with debutantes. That probably has much to do with the 16/1 available with bookmakers (may touch huge odds on exchanges). This son of Invincible Spirit has ability. He cost a whopping 340,000GNS when purchased by Peter & Ross Doyle, now racing in the familiar colours of John Connolly. It is worth noting that Perrett has started a few of her top juveniles here. Could be a surprise package and go well at big odds.
Conclusion: A competitive race - without doubt. The two form horses: Dark Shot & Vibrant Chords have good win and place claims but crucially need to be in their best betting guides to threaten. If not, best watched. The betting will be very informative to the two above as it will the whole field. Taneen is held in high regard and from experience I know these horses, when strong in the market, take some beating. The downside is that any debutante can be ring rusty and it is a matter of opinion whether you want to take such short odds.Taneen is the horse to beat and you may be a brave soul to punt others against him. Zhui Feng is interesting at speculative odds. Perrett doesn't inspire as a trainer of debutantes but they can win. Horses of ability can defy the most crushing statistics. There is enough evidence to suggest this colt is held in some regard and most likely be winning this season. If touching big prices I'd have a bet but rather than going in each way have a point on Taneen and Zhui Feng. I can imagine connections of a good few here thinking this is a tougher race than they expected. I would take the favourite and outsider to go well in this competitive heat
A good few races so I will detail a few live chances as I review:
2:00 Ayr - Ontoawinner racing syndicate do well with their two-year-olds. Tabikat Elle has been mentioned in dispatches. This daughter of Showcasing wasn't overly fancied on debut and needed the experience. In fairness, that may have been a tougher race that it looked on the day. I'd expect this chestnut filly to be more professional today - looking a progressive type physically. The betting is key. If starting 13/2 & less SP I'd give her decent each-way claims. If weak in the betting take a watching brief.
6:00 Thirsk - Interesting to see Kevin Ryan's Laughton making a quick return after disappointing at Haydock over 6f. That was a decent race and perhaps his defeat simply showed this colt's limitations. However, this son of Acclamation is held in high regard at home and may appreciate this drop back to the minimum trip. It does give the impression he didn't show his running last time out. It's last chance saloon as a betting proposition. The classic easy winner or dismal loser. I'll take a watching brief, such is my nature.
6:30 Thirsk - Quite a restricted race type which gives preference to form horses. Dark Confidant is a consistent horse who travels well over 7f. I had an each-way bet on this juvenile last time out. This son of Royal Applause ran well, touched odds-on in-running, before tiring in the final half furlong. It was a respectable effort. Guest's charge will run there about and should hit the frame. I would try to lay my bet in-running at shorter odds, as he may well lead.
Midnight Macchiato would get the nod. This son of Dark Angel wasn't fancied on debut at Doncaster but run well to finish fourth of eleven. The stable rate this youngster and he should go well. At 5/2 [written Sunday evening] there isn't too much fat on the butcher's pencil so may be the type to put in an each-way double/treble if you feel like a dabble. Decent win and place claims if odds allow.
Small ew treble
Fair win double Tabikat Elle & Midnight Macchiato [bet late to make sure the former is in best betting guide, if not, no bet)
Tabikat Elle - Dismally poor
An EBF Maiden Stakes over 7f on good to firm going. Nine two-year-olds: colts and one filly. Most lightly raced bar three debutantes. A few interesting horses and speculative bet that might go well.
Al Khafji wasn't fancied in the betting on debut at Newmarket but far from disgraced. This 150,000gns yearling is owned by Al Shaqab Racing and hails from Bedford House Stables whose juveniles often show marked improvement on their second start. This son of New Approach has been given a Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) entry. If priced 13/2 & less SP has respectable win and place claims.
Scarlet Dragon belied his odds on debut when finishing with verve at Goodwood, third at odds of 40/1. That may not have been the strongest of contests but it shouldn't take away from this son of Sir Percy who looks nailed on to improve for this extra furlong. Henry Ponsonby is a shrewd owner and it is a sign of confidence this bay colt has been given a stakes entry. It suggests to me that winning a maiden is likely and loftier ambition will take seed with time. Another colt who has respectable each-way claims if fancied in the betting.
Sir Michael Stoute is a trainer so highly rated that his two-year-olds are often under priced on their second start. Arab Poet made a pleasing introduction at Windsor over 6f, shaping well. The betting detailed this home bred son of Poet's Voice needed the run. This step up in distance will be in his favour. On statistics alone this chestnut colt has the edge although the price doesn't look value.
Gershwin is interesting. David Lanigan has a pretty poor win rate on debut although a few juveniles have gone in when backed. This son of Shamardal was well backed when making his racecourse bow at Doncaster but never competitive after a slow start. In truth, this 100,000euro yearling buy had no chance after those sluggish tendencies. He was beaten a long way into eighth but, perhaps, better is expected. Owner B E Neilsen of ABBA fame has deep pockets and capable of unearthing a talented horse [Masked Marvel, pictured]. A string of Group entries suggests this colt can be forgiven a poor first start. At speculative odds it isn't beyond the realms he will make a transformation. There is a distinct possibility he could be backed.
Conclusion: From a statistical point of view Al Khafji, Scarlet Dragon and Arab Poet hold respectable each way claims. Gershwin has a lot to prove and needs to leave that debut effort as far behind him as he ran that day. Stranger things have happened and I would have a small each way bet on this colt at big odds. Already been a few nibbles on this one on the exchanges. Unless you can get around 14/1+ I'd take a watching brief. Need some value to take a punt of this nature.
Gershwin Late non runner - spread plate
3:15 Windsor - King of Dreams is held in high regard by connections. This son of Dream Ahead, in the same ownership Khalifa Dasmal cost 240,000gns at Tattersalls October Sales 2014. A Champagne Stakes (Group 2) entry give confidence in what looks to be a relatively weak maiden. At restricted odds I will take a watching brief although be surprised if he is beaten.
A quiet start to the month with the pro tipsters going close on occasions but no cigar. Perhaps pinch of tobacco for their pipe. Shukman (pro) holds the lead with 3.4pts. However, it's the freebies who have the lead. The infamous Glueythepig 11pts found a winner, while Danny 10pts is hot on his heels. The only other points scorer is Emanuel 2.8pts. All very quite. I may have to start smoking to calm my nerves. We've got an early start because of Ascot. So please get your entries in by 12:30. Or 1PM if you don't fancy anything in the first. I do try to be flexible. Good luck to all.
Tipster selections:
1:30 Ascot - Wordiness 2pt w (Bird) Unp
1:50 Haydock - Balducci 2pt w (Jodonovan) 3rd
1:50 Haydock - Secret Art 2pt w (Racing Mama) Unp
2:00 Newmarket - Thetis 2pt w (HCE) 3rd
2:00 Newmarket - Gale Song 2pt w (Blue Dog) Unp
2:00 Newmarket - Equivocal 2pt w (Danny) Unp
2:00 Newmarket - Sepal 2pt w (Glueythepig) Unp
2:20 Haydock - Sennokian Star 1pt ew (Shukman) 3rd (2,6pts)
2:20 Haydock - Basateen 1pt ew (Emanuel) Unp
2:20 Haydock - Sennokian Star 2pt w (Davidson) 3rd
2:55 Haydock - Master Carpenter 2pt w (Clint) 2nd
2:55 Haydock - Master Carpenter 2pt w (Mark) 2nd
3:20 Redcar - Order Of Service 2pt w (Stephenson) Unp
3:20 Redcar - Just Paul 2pt w (Rawnsley) Unp
3:35 Newmarket - Marenko 2pt w (Winter) 3rd
3:35 Newmarket - Hawksmoor 2pt w (Uncle Keith/Paul) Unp
3:35 Newmarket - Blue Bayou 2pt w (Me Old Mum) 1st (5.5pts)
3:35 Newmarket - Squash 1pt ew (Longbow) Unp
3:55 Redcar - Karaka Jack 2pt w (Capt Heathcliffe) 4th
3:55 Redcar - Hidden Rebel 2pt w (Waterhouse) 2nd
4:55 Redcar - Head Space 2pt w (Eric) Unp
4:55 Redcar - Head Space 2pt w (OneEyeEnos) Unp
6:10 Ayr - Pythius 2pt w (Gareth) 1st (11pts)
Good luck to all
Rather late with this update. A maiden stakes race over 7f on good to firm going. Eleven two-year-olds - all colts although open to fillies. A few talking horses here. Emotionless is trained by Charlie Appleby, one of two debutantes in this field. This American bred colt, a son of Shamardal is out of a Grade 1 winning mare [Unbridled Elaine] who won over $1,000,000 in prize money. Bred to be good, he has a raft of flashy Group entries that detail this bay colt has ability. The word is out as the price is pretty short at 13/8. Whether punters want to take those odds is a matter of debate although I would be very surprised if Charlie Appleby's charge doesn't run a big race.
Venturous looks to be second string although holds a Middle Park Stakes. He cost 110,000gns as a foal. Probably best watched although it wouldn't be the first time the white hat spoiled the party.
Quite interested to see how Sun Lover goes for Luca Cumani. This son of Oasis Dream is out of an unraced mare. He was purchased by J Warren Bloodstock at the yearling sales for 360,000gns, now racing in the familiar silks of Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum. Bedford Lodge has given this colt a Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) entry, one of two for the stable. Cumani isn't the type of trainer to throw around entries and their debutantes have fair place claims when priced 9/1 SP and less.
Conclusion: Looking forward to see how Emotionless goes on his debut. I can only imagine how much this colt would have cost if going through the sales ring. There is little doubt he has enough ability to win a race of this nature and will most likely be contesting at Group level this season. Whether you fancy going in at short odds is a matter of opinion. He is slightly on the drift in the betting 7/4. I wouldn't be in a rush to bet against this talking horse. Sun Lover is worth noting for the future. He is an expensive buy and held in some regard. Has place claims if priced less than double-figure odds. The others are best watched.
Busy. Busy. Busy. Feel as though I've been stuck on an escalator and some nutter found a go-fast button just to give me grief. Clearly no amount of work is going to stop me detailing more juicy peaches of wonderment.
Quite a big field for this maiden. Laughton ran well enough on debut behind a talent in Wayward Hoof. Kevin Ryan's bay colt, a son of Acclamation, will be primed today and I can confirm this two-year-old is high in the pecking order at Hambleton. A good bet if touching each-ways prices but that does seem a touch optimistic (time will tell).
Spanish City could be a strong challenger from Roger Varian's stable. Their juveniles have been a little disappointing and I'm sure their string isn't as strong as previous years. This chestnut colt is held in high regard. He held an entry for the Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2), Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) & Middle Park Stakes (Group 1). That list brings confidence.
This home bred was meant to run the other week but withdrawn. It is worth noting that day the colt was extremely weak in the betting. That may simply have been due to the word getting out he was to be withdrawn but it is worth considering. Varian's charge will need to be primed to beat Laughton who has valuable race experience. I would certainly watch the betting just in case there is a weakness. Conversely, this may be good reason for bettors to take the earlier prices on Laughton. I respect Spanish City but whether I want to take 2/1 [at time of writing] against Ryan's talent I'm not so sure. Interesting. I'd be looking for an each way bet on Laughton, if available.
6:35 Newcastle - Bryan Smart is a talented trainer and Extortion ran well when finishing second on debut at Redcar. This American bred colt was a cheap foal at 5,000gns, withdrawn as a yearling. This home bred was most likely sent through the sales to gain entry to these limited races. Strong win and place claims if each-way prices are available.
6:50 Sandown - Seven lightly raced or unraced two-year-olds. Couple of interesting horses: Shahbar & Brorocco. The former is trained by Marco Botti for Al Shaqab Racing and an expensive yearling purchase at 320,000gns. He ran a fine race when second on debut at Leicester over 6f. Stepping up to one mile should see improvement. One of the best juveniles at Prestige Place. The downside, there is little meat on the bone at 8/11. Brorocco is trained by Andrew Balding for the Kingsclere Racing Club. This home bred has been going well at home. It should be noted that Balding's two-year-olds just don't seem to be running well, especially the debutantes, many of which have disappointed when relatively fancied in the betting. Their youngsters can go well when priced 10/1 on debut. However, I would have to take a watching brief until the stable hits form.
2:40 Haydock - Laughton - strong each-way claims 5th (disappointed)
6:35 Newcastle - Extortion - strong win and place claims 4/1 2nd (drifted across track)
6:50 Sandown - Shahbar - worth a bet if 1/1 1st
Small ew treble
An intriguing maiden. At most a four-horse race. Not really telling you much there. Sirajiah was fancied to go well on debut for William Haggas but needed to be flying to beat WhatdoIwantthatfor. I'm not sure this drop back to 5f will suit. However, with a Lowther Stakes (Group 2) and Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) entry has to be respected.
Little Voice has been given a string of lofty entries but I can't help thinking this daughter of Scat Daddy is better on the gallops. The step up to 6f at Windsor, perhaps, didn't suit and this bay filly was put in her place by Justice Lass.
Rosie Royce and Apasiona contested the same race over 5f at Sandown. The former trained by Henry Candy was fancied in the betting but had no luck in running. She coasted home and is clearly capable of much better. I'd expect a bold show.
Apasiona is held in some regard by Alan McCabe although his two-year-olds have been pretty poor this season and with a few gambles going astray I have the feeling their string hasn't lived up to earlier hopes.
I'm pretty sure connections of Sirajiah and Little Voice will be expecting a win. Little Voice is held in high regard but has had her chances and I would take a watching brief. Sirajiah will be primed. I wonder if 5f will be a touch too fast. On statistics Rosie Royce has the best chance - decent win and place claims although lacking Group entries.
At the odds I would have a small each way bet on Rosie Royce if priced 13/2 & less SP (no bet outside this guide). At 5/1 should be a no-lose bet if placed and hopeful of more.
5:20 Newcastle - A very restricted race type. These limited races often go to a form horses and Dark Confidant is likely to go well for Richard Guest. This son of Royal Applause ran well on debut - traveled with ease - but slightly disappointed when dropped back to 6f. That shorter trip tapped his pace and probably made for a weak finish. I'd expect this bay gelding to travel with authority and touch shorter odds in running. Must have strong each way claims. Interesting to see how Micheal Dods' debutante goes.
Wayside Magic is a cheap purchase and gelded. Denton Hall have good place claims with their two-year-old debutantes and they often go well at Newcastle and like softer going. I'd probably watch this horse unless 16/1+. Dark Confidant is a decent each-way bet. Might be worth a small rev f/c with Wayside Magic to pay a lot of money.
7:10 Kempton - Nemoralia is held in high regard by Jeremy Noseda and withdrawn last time which suggests connections want to make this race count. This daughter of More Than Ready made a promising debut and sterling second start at Newmarket. She is sure to run well but the down side is the price. Not much meat on the bone. I'd hold out and hope this youngster drifts in the betting and step in if 1/1 is available.
An outsider which may be worth a small bet is Henry Spiller's Star Glimmer. This daughter of Zodiac is a cheap buy for the rookie trainer and the only sign of ability is the knowledge she has been given a stakes entry. At odds of 100/1 she may get a place.
2:00 Chepstow - Rosie Royce 5/1 [Paddy Power] small ew 3rd
5:20 Newcastle - Dark Confidant 4/1 (NAP) decent ew bet 3rd
7:10 Kempton - Nemoralia 8/11 bet if evens is available 1st (touched evens exchanges)
Small ew treble
Just a few notes. Working on a number of fronts these days and not much energy going spare. Sixteen fillies over 6f on good to firm going. Couple of talking horses here with Al Khateya and Lenience both holding entries for the Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1). On balance very unlikely these debutantes will have the class to contend at that level but nonetheless their entries hint at ability. The former trained by Richard Hannon was purchased by Peter & Ross Doyle at the yearling sales for 350,000eur. A wide draw is far from ideal. Conversely, Lenience, trained by Martyn Meade, has a prime draw in stall one. This daughter of Oasis Dream is quite interesting simply for the fact that Meade has only given pattern entries to three juveniles this season, including Kurland [pictured]. She runs in the familiar black and white silks of Ladyswood Stud. Sefton Lodge generally go well with their debutantes so if this bay filly has a touch of class I'd expect some promise today if not hitting the frame. At odds of 10/1 there could well be some meat on the bone.
Lenience - worth a small speculative bet. I'd take the 10/1 and hope she is backed to half odds etc for a decent no-lose bet. Difficult horse to assess in some respects.
Touched half odds on Betfair so satisfied with my analysis. Either needed the run or poor. Terrible start just about summed things up.
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