What I enjoy about two-year-old horse racing is that it is full of surprises, potential, hope and dreams.
I'm not saying that other age groups of horses don't have a similar feel because horses will always surprise. The handicapper which goes from a 50-rating to 100. From plating races to listed class.
However, those who love two-year-old racing know that it is a fleeting time. I, personally, only work within this niche. When then next Flat turf season arrives it is a blank slate for me to write the names of new stars of the future. I follow this subject matter to the highest of standards. I managed to achieve a 2:1 degree in reading Psychology at the Open University. This racing knowledge far exceeds any academic endeavour I have followed. It is a battle of wits: HCE Vs Bookmakers (layers). Sometimes they win - sometimes they lose. Long term I bet myself to beat anyone else who tries to lay horses against me. Why am I confident? Because I work harder than most people, have vast experience and appreciate what it takes to do exactly what I do.
I run Group Horse Daily, which details the best unraced and lightly raced two-year-old colts & fillies in training. If you have never seen this website before, then take a look by clicking the link.
Today was very busy. A hell of a lot of juvenile races - 14 to be precise. Far too many. However, there were some very interesting horses. A number well regarded.
The 1:30 Nottingham (caught my eye).
Charlie Hills favourite Qutob ran well on debut when narrowly beaten.
The 8/13f ran a decent race but finished second to Mick Channon's Converter. This son of Swiss Spirit is held in high regard. I detailed this point before the race. With such a short-priced favourite it can slightly skew the betting. Few of Channon's debutants win on debut when priced over 8/1. It's a fact. If you have the software to check these things you will see the strike rate is terribly low. Converter drifted to 16/1. It is intriguing to consider what trainers think. I am sure connections hold this bay colt in very high order. But did they think beating the favourite was too much? Well, Converter was held up out the back. The reason why he touched big odds in-running on the exchanges. Racing up the rail, he coasted to the lead and won by a length or so in ready fashion.
Interesting that I state that very few of his debutantes win at double-figure prices. There have been a few. What have I learnt about these winners? When they win a big odds on debut it details a very talented horse which is likely to contest pattern class.
This won't be Converter's last win.
The Windsor Castle Stakes Listed race over 5f on good going. A huge field of twenty-seven two-year-olds. A cavalry charge if you have every seen one. Far too many horses to detail so will just note a major contender.
Mick Channon doesn't have many juveniles win on debut, especially at big odds - it is often a sign they have a touch of class.
In a race of this nature this daughter of Thousand Words will need to shine.
Purchased at the yearling sales for just £1,800, her original owners - The Sweet Partnership - must have been as happy as a child with a bag of aniseed balls when this strapping filly was sold to Qatar Racing Ltd - a rags to riches tale.
Opal Tiara looked rather awkward on debut but finished with zeal to beat a decent field and then showed a resolute style when chasing home Easton Angel in the Hilary Needler Trophy over the minimum distance at Beverley. The winner, trained by Michael Dods, is a class act [major fancy in the Queen Mary Stakes Group 2] with that pair beating the third in comfortable style. Opal Tiara's strength in this race is that she is likely to finish with purpose which is the antithesis of the field in general. It is often the case at this high level, horses sprint for four furlongs and tire in the closing stages. There is a propensity for horses to run much too fast here.
For a horse to finish its race is a positive and that could well be the characteristic of this bay filly. At odds of 20/1 Opal Tiara could well be one of the few horses to finish with the verve.
Ran a decent race in 7th - storming home but all the pace was far side while made it an impossible task for all those high drawn.
A Median Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f on standard going. A restricted race type where proven form gives greatest advantage. Seven two-year-olds take part, three colts against the fillies, the majority raced, although a gulf between the best and worst form.
Finflash will take the world of beating here. This bay son of Jeremy was relatively fancied on debut at Ascot over 5f when just failing to collar Ifwecan who has franked the form since. This 20,000gns yearling was sent off favourite on his next start at Salisbury and perhaps - on the face of it - was slightly disappointing. However, it is more likely this youngster simply found himself in a pretty hot race. The winner of that contest, Saayerr, is unbeaten in two starts and heads to Royal Ascot, later this month. Finflash, trained by Mick Channon, will find this grade much easier and with valuable race experience should take this in his stride and go forward.
A number of these have something to prove.
Riley's Missile has ran six times and his last effort at plating class suggests that nursery races will see him in a better light.
Flora Medici is a home bred who showed temperament on debut when running over 6f at Redcar. That was a fair maiden, but Sir Mark Prescott's filly showed only limited ability and is bred to need a test of stamina. This drop back to the minimum trip doesn't look a move in the right direction. One to take a watching brief unless significantly backed.
Phil McEntee is a calculated trainer who often does well with his cheap purchases. Baytown Kestrel is a daughter of Captain Gerrard costing just £400 at the breeze-up sales, which is a give-away considering a couple of her siblings hit five figures. She is well drawn but not a debutante to bet today, although the stable can pull a surprise or two.
Mick Channon fields a second runner - Ivan B - a home bred colt by Winker Watson out of a mare who showed little ability. A wide draw isn't a good starting point and the betting is the best guide to his chances. Very few of the stable's juveniles win when priced in double figures and unless the focus of a gamble best watched.
As far as opposition goes, Weisse Girl & Vallila look the main dangers.
The former, trained by Noel Quinlan, was well backed before the off when making her debut over course and distance. She played second fiddle to Smuggler's Gold who is a capable horse. The third horse, Kidmenot, has since won at Warwick, but needed the run first start, so it could pay to take that form line with a pinch of salt. Weisse Girl was made favourite at Catterick, looking to have a fine chance. Initially, finishing third looked something of a disappointment. However, the form of that race may be stronger than it looked with the winner Lorimer's Lot placed in the Hilary Needler. The second horse was priced very short for one of Michael Easterby's so time may tell the race had some substance. Not the easiest horse to assess but in a poor race she could have each way claims.
Roger Charlton fields his first two-year-old runner of the season. Vallila is a French home bred daughter of Dunkerque, a sire who won at Group 3 class in his racing career. The mare was lightly raced and limited. The breeding doesn't give great confidence and home breds are often a little slow to come to hand. Certainly, it is never easy for a debutante to race on a turning track. The betting is the best guide to this February foal. However, with so few contenders in the field her odds could be shorter than greater even if limited. Still, the betting will be key. If priced 7/2 & less I would expect a bold show. If relatively fancied [13/2 & less] this bay has place claims. If weak in the market it would be a negative.
Conclusion: Finflash went close to winning on debut and probably contested a strong race second start. He looks a cut above these and connections will be disappointed if this isn't third time lucky. Weisse Girl knows the lie of the land around here and will not lack for pace. Donohoe [jockey] may be instructed to press on and use that valuable experience. She ran well on debut although that second start is still a touch difficult to assess. However, in a poor-looking race I could see punters being tempted to take each way odds if the favourite is backed to huge odds on. Quinlan's filly has her work cut out against the favourite but it never pays to think any horse is unbeatable. The betting is the key to Vallila. Breeding doesn't inspire nor does a home bred on a turning track. I have a feeling she will be weak in the betting. However, if strongly fancied it would be significant. This is Finflash's race to lose. While Weisse Girl could be an each way punt but the favourite may need to disappoint.
Pointers:
2:00 Ripon - Beltor ''a horse who may go well at a speculative price''
Liverpool One EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f 16y on good to firm ground. Eleven juveniles take part, predominantly colts, over half with form. A couple of these look fair types and set a respectable standard for the debutantes to achieve. After yesterday's Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes, it proves a low draw and abundance of pace cannot be ignored.
Tom Dascombe has a fine record with his two-year-olds & Quatuor's stylish victory on the first day of this meeting will have connections feeling bullish about the chance of Fine 'n Dandy. This chestnut son of Dandy Man cost £30,000 at the yearling sales and out of a winning mare. This youngster made his debut in a four-runner race and was strongly fancied to take the spoils. He had one major opponent [Limegrove] who was just too streetwise. However, I'm pretty sure connections expected to win that race but didn't want to press this February foal settling for second best. Most two-year-olds are primed to run a big race second start and from a low draw he should go well. There is a fair chance he will get to the rail and you should expect a bold show.
*Sartori sets a fair level of form. Mick Channon's representative needed the run on debut at Bath although time may tell that was a better contest than it first looked. A number of the Box 41 horses improve with their racing and this son of Elnadim showed marked improvement at Pontefract. I'm sure the form will hold up. The third, Meritocracy, has since won and there will be more winners to come. Channon had this colt entered for a Stakes race which suggests they have plans. A wide draw isn't a good starting point although this juvenile didn't lack for pace at Pontefract when rousted along to secure a favourable position. With a handful of debutantes in the line up experience should dictate that he holds an advantage over many of those horses. It could be the case the draw puts a few doubts in punter's minds and if drifting to speculative odds could be a worthy each way bet.
From a statistical point of view Inciting Incident should hold strong place claims. Ed McMahon is one of my favourite trainers and exceptional at placing his juveniles, especially on their second start. This son of Camacho is a good-looking juvenile who was relatively fancied on debut at Beverely. He looked like a winner only to be denied by a 40/1 outsider. The form of that race has taken a knock with the third disappointing next start and those in behind haven't excelled. However, this trainer's juveniles often improve for their second start and progress should be expected. Ed McMahon has a fantastic strike rate at this course and if priced 7/1 & less should be placed at worst.
Jive is trained by Richard Hannon. She was fancied on debut at Windsor when behind Quatuor who went on to a decisive win in the Lily Agnes. The second horse has proven a fair sort and third is held in some regard. This filly looks the type to improve and respect.
Of the others, Gin Time is likely to be outpaced and outclassed.
Countess Lupus doesn't appeal.
The betting is the best guide to the debutantes. Anytimeatall, Quincel, Salford Red Devil& Brave Imp all have claims if priced 13/2 & less. A number of these stables have debut winners and although they will need to be primed it isn't beyond the realms. Substantial money for Anytimeatall would be noteworthy.
Red Forever is best watched.
Conclusion: A fascinating race. The debutantes will need to be pretty smart to win against a few fair sorts. Unless they are priced 13/2 & less I would take a watching brief. The form horses make most appeal. Fine 'n Dandy ran well on debut and looks sure to improve for that first start. He showed good pace that day and could well race against the rail. This youngster is held in some regard by the stable but at the odds he may not be the greatest value. Inciting Incident needs to improve on his first start but could go well. The stable have a superb record at this course and particularly on their second start when fancied in the betting. They have very good place claims and fighting chance of a win. Sartori may just be forgotten with a wide draw. It is a concern because if a few of the low drawn ping from the stalls they could be difficult to peg back. However, this colt ran in a decent race at Pontefract and a fair type. The stable clearly feel a maiden is there for the taking. If a big drifter on the exchanges, it could be tempting to go for a small each way bet. If one or two of the debutantes are relatively short priced I would be extra careful. Jive is difficult to assess but could hit the frame if priced 13/2 & less. I would be tempted to back Inciting Incident for a place and Sartori as an each way punt if big prices are offered on the exchanges.
*NR
The Manor House Stables Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes over 5f 16y on good to firm ground. Fourteen juveniles take part, eleven winners in the field, a mix of colts and fillies. This is a surprisingly big field for this notable race which offers the biggest prize money of this two-year-old season so far.
Steventon Star looked the class class act of this race but a wide draw has clearly influenced connections to withdraw at this early stage. There is a likelihood those with high draws will follow suit.
A low draw is a big advantage around this idiosyncratic track. Typically is takes a certain kind of horse with an abundance of natural pace. To be fair, the majority of these don't look beyond average ability.
Sleepy Joe could be the exception. This good-looking son of Jeremy ran out a comfortable winner at Leicester on debut. There was money for this bay colt and stable confidence wasn't misplaced. Mick Channon had this youngster entered to run in the Brocklesby so he was firmly on our radar and one of only a few of this field who could progress to be a smart horse. The problem comes from trying to assess what he beat that day. Initially, I thought it was a good race because a couple in opposition were fancied. However, the second, Larsen Bay, ran terrible a Goodwood next start. Time may tell Larsen Bay disappointed that day because I can't believe he is quite that bad. Sleepy Joe should be respected and could have a touch of class.
Quatuor hails from the sponsoring yard of Tom Dascombe. This daughter of Kodiac is small and her asset is natural pace. That certainly made the difference between winning and losing last time at Windsor where she held the late charge. This bay filly could well get to the rail and make a bold bid. However, she will need to gain a sufficient lead because I can see her being swamped in the final furlong.
David Evans has a good record in this race and represented by four fair juveniles. Kodafine and Limegrove look the better. The former is a progressive filly who could have won on debut if things had gone her way and next start saw an emphatic victory. Limegrove has speed to burn and a good, compact juvenile. She ran well at Salisbury but couldn't live with the late charge of Fig Roll. Both have wide draws and it will be interesting to see whether connections tell their jockeys to press on or sit off the pace. Kodafine is likely to be held up while Limegrove may blast for the rail.
Split Rock is one of the most proven juveniles but being drawn so wide means he will have to be held up off the pace and finish with zeal.
M'Selle beat the above mentioned on her second start after winning well on debut. A plum draw gives hope of a big run. Harris' youngster proved to enjoy the turning track. However, she seemed to be slightly outpaced last time out which bring concerns she is regressing.
Lilo Lil is another who will make a bold bid to lead but will struggle to win. Outback Lover could hit the front but she is a small horse with limited ability.
Blithe Spirit was a ready winner at Ripon and on form could be viewed a major hope. I just wonder if she was flattered that day with experience and running the rail key factors.
One Boy is a good-looking colt with size and scope to improve for his comfortable debut win. Once again, the draw is a negative, but Michael Dods seems keen on this horse and has the potential to progress.
Conclusion: This is a difficult race to judge. The draw will make life hard for the better juveniles in this field, which may bring them to a similar level to those lower drawn who really don't have the class to win a race of this nature. Some of the low drawn will make a bold bid for the rail. Smugglers Gold could be the horse to lead but likely to falter in the closing stages. I'm not keen on the chances of Quatuor. She has pace but another who will struggle to finish against a few of these who will be driving forward at the death. Sleepy Joe would get my vote. He is a good-looking two-year-old who won well even with signs of inexperience at Leicester. The unknown is trying to assess that form. On balance, this horse could be pretty smart. If touching fancy odds on the exchanges he could be a fair each way selection. If talented, I would expect to see good money for this horse.
A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f 20y on standard going. Seven two-year-olds take part, a mix of colts and fillies from early-season trainers.
This looks a tricky race to assess with only one horse with experience.
Bill Turner got off to his customary flying start when Mick's Yer Man won the Brocklesby in style on the first day of the Flat turf season. His second runner didn't keep the 100% record, although that colt ran on with purpose at the line. Jake Payne takes the ride on Sunshine Superman, a son of Captain Gerrard, who was purchased by the trainer for £1,100 at the yearling sales. The mare was unraced, although bred to need a trip. As stated before, Turner doesn't feature as good a strike rate with his debutantes as pundits enthuse. In fact, their juveniles often struggle to win first start. The Brocklesby victory is still fresh in punters' minds and could well be a horse to take a watching brief if a short price.
Outback Lover is the only horse to have raced so far, one of two juveniles fielded by Stan Moore. This bay, by first season sire Bushranger, is on the small side. Fillies come in all shapes and sizes so it doesn't pay to be dogmatic about their standing although this March foal had the physique of a plater. That initial experience could be worth a lot, especially on this turning track, where immaturity can be costly. That first effort at Lingfield left me with the impression connections didn't hold any aspirations of winning. It is difficult to imagine the worth of that form as the winner never looked to be troubled and the majority of the field were on a steep learning curve. Egan takes off a valuable 3lb, and from a low draw is likely to press on. If relatively fancied in the betting she has fair win and place claims although I have reservations.
The other stable representative is Far Gaze. This Amercian bred colt was a cheap buy for 2,000euros. The mare won on debut in a three-race career. The main point of interest regarding this colt is that he was one of two juveniles entered by Moore to run in the Brocklesby. They were both withdrawn most probably due to testing ground conditions, suggesting the all weather surface will be more suiting. In previous years, the Brocklesby entry has been a positive sign for this stable, with the majority of the sample going on to win in their juvenile career. However, most won on their second start. I would imagine Far Gaze will be a better horse than Outback Lover. However, it would be a fair effort to win on debut.
Left Defender is Jo Hughes fourth two-year-old runner of the season. The stable have about 20 juveniles at Hill House Stables. This bay colt was purchased by the trainer from the yearling sales for £3,000. This son of Camacho is out of an unraced Irish mare and top weight for this event. There was good money for both juveniles in the race where Outback Lover finished fifth, with the stable taking second place, while the heavily backed Marilyn Marquessa disappointed after showing good pace. A difficult horse to assess but a stable who like to gamble so worth keeping an eye on the market.
Richard Guest isn't renowned for two-year-old winners and the majority of his juveniles are limited, most needing the experience. Clumber Place won on debut in 2008, after being well backed. *Will To Survive was a 1,500euro purchase from the yearling sales. The only positive is that this youngster makes an early start to his career because some of the stable's better prospects have been their first runners. However, unless seriously backed it would be wise to take a watching brief.
*Gin Time hails from David Evans' stable. This March foal, a daughter of Kalanisi, is owned by his wife and a cheap buy. Ty Derlwyn Farm, have about 14 two-year-olds in training and they generally aim to run most of their juveniles in the first few months of the season. The sire was a talented horse from Sir Michael Stoute. However, you would have to consider this trip looks a touch sharp. I always find this stable very difficult to call with their debutantes. Money would be a positive but a few question marks on the breeding front and wide draw doesn't make for easy reading.
Memory Styx looks the most interesting horse on paper and comes from a stable which deserves respect. This daughter of Clodovil is the most expensive in the field at £14,000 and related to fair horses including half-sister Watneya, who won on debut when trained by William Haggas. The mare made a winning three-year-old debut for Mick Channon over one mile and a limited handicapper. From a statistical point of view this grey holds the best chance although this minimum trip could well be on the sharp side. This horse makes most appeal as the winner.
Conclusion: It is best to take these early-season two-year-old races as works in progress. They are part of a much bigger picture and form takes time to become established. The betting is a good pointer. Outback Lover has the advantage of experience although she is a on the small side. I can see her sneaking a place but may struggle to win. Unless there is substantial money for Left Defender & Will To Survive they are best watched. Gin Time looks to need a further trip. I find Evans debutantes impossible to assess. I would take a watching brief but respect they can win when readied. Similarly, Sunshine Superman wouldn't be my type of bet if favourite. Far Gaze is worth noting for the future and likely to win this season. Moore's youngster can win on debut and it isn't beyond the realm this horse could go well. Memory Styx looks the the sort to go well but this doesn't look a betting race to me.
Note: Sunshine Superman, Will To Survive & Gin Time have been entered to run in a selling race at Warwick, which suggests they are no world beaters.
Take a look at We Go Racing, who not only have a great website, but a superb 2yo racing page.
*NR
