Wednesday 8 May 2013

3:50 Chester (9th May) Free Horse Racing Tips

Liverpool One EBF Maiden Stakes  over 5f 16y on good to firm ground. Eleven juveniles take part, predominantly colts, over half with form. A couple of these look fair types and set a respectable standard for the debutantes to achieve. After yesterday's Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes, it proves a low draw and abundance of pace cannot be ignored.

Tom Dascombe has a fine record with his two-year-olds & Quatuor's stylish victory on the first day of this meeting will have connections feeling bullish about the chance of Fine 'n Dandy. This chestnut son of Dandy Man cost £30,000 at the yearling sales and out of a winning mare. This youngster made his debut in a four-runner race and was strongly fancied to take the spoils. He had one major opponent [Limegrove] who was just too streetwise. However, I'm pretty sure connections expected to win that race but didn't want to press this February foal settling for second best. Most two-year-olds are primed to run a big race second start and from a low draw he should go well. There is a fair chance he will get to the rail and you should expect a bold show.

*Sartori sets a fair level of form. Mick Channon's representative needed the run on debut at Bath although time may tell that was a better contest than it first looked. A number of the Box 41 horses improve with their racing and this son of Elnadim showed marked improvement at Pontefract. I'm sure the form will hold up. The third, Meritocracy, has since won and there will be more winners to come. Channon had this colt entered for a Stakes race which suggests they have plans. A wide draw isn't a good starting point although this juvenile didn't lack for pace at Pontefract when rousted along to secure a favourable position. With a handful of debutantes in the line up experience should dictate that he holds an advantage over many of those horses. It could be the case the draw puts a few doubts in punter's minds and if drifting to speculative odds could be a worthy each way bet. 

From a statistical point of view Inciting Incident should hold strong place claims. Ed McMahon is one of my favourite trainers and exceptional at placing his juveniles, especially on their second start. This son of Camacho is a good-looking juvenile who was relatively fancied on debut at Beverely. He looked like a winner only to be denied by a 40/1 outsider. The form of that race has taken a knock with the third disappointing next start and those in behind haven't excelled. However, this trainer's juveniles often improve for their second start and progress should be expected. Ed McMahon has a fantastic strike rate at this course and if priced 7/1 & less should be placed at worst.

Jive is trained by Richard Hannon. She was fancied on debut at Windsor when behind Quatuor who went on to a decisive win in the Lily Agnes. The second horse has proven a fair sort and third is held in some regard. This filly looks the type to improve and respect.

Of the others, Gin Time is likely to be outpaced and outclassed. 

Countess Lupus doesn't appeal. 

The betting is the best guide to the debutantes. Anytimeatall, Quincel, Salford Red Devil& Brave Imp all have claims if priced 13/2 & less. A number of these stables have debut winners and although they will need to be primed it isn't beyond the realms. Substantial money for Anytimeatall would be noteworthy.

Red Forever is best watched.

Conclusion: A fascinating race. The debutantes will need to be pretty smart to win against a few fair sorts. Unless they are priced 13/2 & less I would take a watching brief. The form horses make most appeal. Fine 'n Dandy ran well on debut and looks sure to improve for that first start. He showed good pace that day and could well race against the rail. This youngster is held in some regard by the stable but at the odds he may not be the greatest value.  Inciting Incident needs to improve on his first start but could go well. The stable have a superb record at this course and particularly on their second start when fancied in the betting. They have very good place claims and fighting chance of a win. Sartori may just be forgotten with a wide draw. It is a concern because if a few of the low drawn ping from the stalls they could be difficult to peg back. However, this colt ran in a decent race at Pontefract and a fair type. The stable clearly feel a maiden is there for the taking. If a big drifter on the exchanges, it could be tempting to go for a small each way bet. If one or two of the debutantes are relatively short priced I would be extra careful. Jive is difficult to assess but could hit the frame if priced 13/2 & less. I would be tempted to back Inciting Incident for a place and Sartori as an each way punt if big prices are offered on the exchanges.