Tuesday 7 May 2013

1:45 Chester (8th May) Free Horse Racing Tips

The Manor House Stables Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes over 5f 16y on good to firm ground. Fourteen juveniles take part, eleven winners in the field, a mix of colts and fillies. This is a surprisingly big field for this notable race which offers the biggest prize money of this two-year-old season so far. 

Steventon Star looked the class class act of this race but a wide draw has clearly influenced connections to withdraw at this early stage. There is a likelihood those with high draws will follow suit.  

A low draw is a big advantage around this idiosyncratic track. Typically is takes a certain kind of horse with an abundance of natural pace. To be fair, the majority of these don't look beyond average ability.   

Sleepy Joe could be the exception. This good-looking son of Jeremy ran out a comfortable winner at Leicester on debut. There was money for this bay colt and stable confidence wasn't misplaced. Mick Channon had this youngster entered to run in the Brocklesby so he was firmly on our radar and one of only a few of this field who could progress to be a smart horse. The problem comes from trying to assess what he beat that day. Initially, I thought it was a good race because a couple in opposition were fancied. However, the second, Larsen Bay, ran terrible a Goodwood next start. Time may tell Larsen Bay disappointed that day because I can't believe he is quite that bad. Sleepy Joe should be respected and could have a touch of class. 

Quatuor hails from the sponsoring yard of Tom Dascombe. This daughter of Kodiac is small and her asset is natural pace. That certainly made the difference between winning and losing last time at Windsor where she held the late charge. This bay filly could well get to the rail and make a bold bid. However, she will need to gain a sufficient lead because I can see her being swamped in the final furlong.

David Evans has a good record in this race and represented by four fair juveniles. Kodafine and Limegrove look the better. The former is a progressive filly who could have won on debut if things had gone her way and next start saw an emphatic victory. Limegrove has speed to burn and a good, compact juvenile. She ran well at Salisbury but couldn't live with the late charge of Fig Roll. Both have wide draws and it will be interesting to see whether connections tell their jockeys to press on or sit off the pace. Kodafine is likely to be held up while Limegrove may blast for the rail. 

Split Rock is one of the most proven juveniles but being drawn so wide means he will have to be held up off the pace and finish with zeal.

M'Selle beat the above mentioned on her second start after winning well on debut. A plum draw gives hope of a big run. Harris' youngster proved to enjoy the turning track. However, she seemed to be slightly outpaced last time out which bring concerns she is regressing. 

Lilo Lil is another who will make a bold bid to lead but will struggle to win. Outback Lover could hit the front but she is a small horse with limited ability. 

Blithe Spirit was a ready winner at Ripon and on form could be viewed a major hope. I just wonder if she was flattered that day with experience and running the rail key factors. 

One Boy is a good-looking colt with size and scope to improve for his comfortable debut win. Once again, the draw is a negative, but Michael Dods seems keen on this horse and has the potential to progress. 

Conclusion: This is a difficult race to judge. The draw will make life hard for the better juveniles in this field, which may bring them to a similar level to those lower drawn who really don't have the class to win a race of this nature. Some of the low drawn will make a bold bid for the rail. Smugglers Gold could be the horse to lead but likely to falter in the closing stages. I'm not keen on the chances of Quatuor. She has pace but another who will struggle to finish against a few of these who will be driving forward at the death. Sleepy Joe would get my vote. He is a good-looking two-year-old who won well even with signs of inexperience at Leicester. The unknown is trying to assess that form. On balance, this horse could be pretty smart. If touching fancy odds on the exchanges he could be a fair each way selection. If talented, I would expect to see good money for this horse.