Showing posts with label HCE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label HCE. Show all posts
Wednesday, 20 February 2013
Wednesday, 31 October 2012
Breeders' Cup Special - British 2YO Runners (2nd November)
20:06 Santa Anita - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint (Dirt) 6f
Winner $319,401 2nd $98,899 3rd $49,450 4th $24,650
Ceiling Kitty, trained by Tom Dascombe. Highlight: Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) winner at Royal Ascot. This daughter of Red Clubs was a supreme buy at 16,000gns as a yearling. With three wins from seven races connections will be hoping she can add to prize money of just under £70,000. With a field of just seven runners she could well make the frame.
Tissue price: 15/2
21:28 Santa Anita - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint (Turf) 1m
Winner $638,800 2nd $197,800 3rd $98,899 4th $49,299
Sky Lantern trained by Richard Hannon has proven herself to be a sparkling talent. A 75,000euro yearling purchase, this daughter of Red Clubs has never been out of the first two, with narrow defeats. Her recent victory at the Curragh Phoenix Stakes (Group 1) has added to the coffers. With prize money of nearly £170,000. Favourite to win this huge pot.
Tissue price: 11/4
Waterway Run is an American bred daughter of Arch and a leading light for Ralph Beckett. This breeze-up purchase cost 55,000euros and started her career with a narrow victory at Salisbury. She has won three of her four races, the highlight being the Sakhee Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3) at Newmarket. Franie Dettori takes the ride.
Tissue price: 8/1
The Gold Cheongsam is another talented filly by Red Clubs. Trained by Jeremy Noseda, this January foal cost 70,000gns at the yearling sales but has been a in the money with nearly £270,000 in prize money mostly due to the Weatherby's Insurance 2-y-0 Stakes. She went close in another big sales race at Newmarket although seemingly under performed when trailing hope in the Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1). Blinkers are applied for the first time and William Buick takes the ride.
Tissue price: 10/1
Winner $319,401 2nd $98,899 3rd $49,450 4th $24,650
Ceiling Kitty, trained by Tom Dascombe. Highlight: Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) winner at Royal Ascot. This daughter of Red Clubs was a supreme buy at 16,000gns as a yearling. With three wins from seven races connections will be hoping she can add to prize money of just under £70,000. With a field of just seven runners she could well make the frame.
Tissue price: 15/2
21:28 Santa Anita - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint (Turf) 1m
Winner $638,800 2nd $197,800 3rd $98,899 4th $49,299
Sky Lantern trained by Richard Hannon has proven herself to be a sparkling talent. A 75,000euro yearling purchase, this daughter of Red Clubs has never been out of the first two, with narrow defeats. Her recent victory at the Curragh Phoenix Stakes (Group 1) has added to the coffers. With prize money of nearly £170,000. Favourite to win this huge pot.
Tissue price: 11/4
Waterway Run is an American bred daughter of Arch and a leading light for Ralph Beckett. This breeze-up purchase cost 55,000euros and started her career with a narrow victory at Salisbury. She has won three of her four races, the highlight being the Sakhee Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3) at Newmarket. Franie Dettori takes the ride.
Tissue price: 8/1
The Gold Cheongsam is another talented filly by Red Clubs. Trained by Jeremy Noseda, this January foal cost 70,000gns at the yearling sales but has been a in the money with nearly £270,000 in prize money mostly due to the Weatherby's Insurance 2-y-0 Stakes. She went close in another big sales race at Newmarket although seemingly under performed when trailing hope in the Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1). Blinkers are applied for the first time and William Buick takes the ride.
Tissue price: 10/1
Sunday, 16 September 2012
4:00 Wolverhampton (17th September) Free Horse Racing Tips
A Maiden Stakes over 5f 20y.
Nine two-year-olds take part in this intriguing race. Six colts, three fillies, the majority raced.
Bapak Bangsawan has been a busy boy for Kevin Ryan running five time so far. This son of Pastoral Pursuits is a home bred with bristling pace. There is a lot to like about his last two efforts, when returning to the minimum trip. This May foal was only collard in the closing stages at Southwell by a decent filly and similarly when taking his chance at York. It was surprising to see this bay colt touch huge odds-on in-running because although he held every chance he never quite ran away from the field. By all accounts he could well be defined at a short runner. However, turning courses are often easier than straight five furlongs and from a low draw Bapak Bangsawan may just about last home. This youngster could well be a good back to lay if following those bold front-running tactics. At times, making such assumptions can be a costly exercise because it often coincides with a change of plans. Time will tell whether Amy Ryan tries to lead all the way or hold-up tactics are employed. This colt has plenty of speed but prone to be caught in the final furlong.
Bryan Smart has had a relatively quiet season with his juveniles but Moviesta is held in some regard by the stable. Owned by Harry Redknapp, this breeze-up purchase cost 44,000gns from a decent family. This American bred son of Hard Spun was well backed on debut but struggled from a wide draw, which could well have been the difference between winning and losing. It is never ideal for a debutante to be on the flank. Inexperience was costly but there is little doubt in my mind he was fit and ready to go that day. Eaves certainly didn't hold back in his efforts when racing over the minimum distance. He stepped up to 6f next start and, once again, was fancied in the betting. The field were strung out at the line in what was probably a decent race. The winner, Melody Of Love, is held in high regard by Ann Duffield. She was runner-up at listed class next start. The third ran creditably when losing by a neck at Warwick. Moviesta took a keen hold that day which may have left him susceptible to a strong finisher. There is a lot to like about this colt but a wide draw could be a thorn in his side. With a number of the opposition looking moderate I would be hopeful this colt will sit just off the pace. This drop back to 5f should curb his tendency to race too free.
Marco Botti is a class trainer and Miako a good-looking chestnut colt. This breeze-up purchase cost £65,000 after not being sold at Keeneland sales as a yearling. He was well backed on debut but eased when all chance of winning had faded. He looked to have little hope of beating huge odds-on shot New Fforest over course and distance next start. However, connections must have been disappointed by a seemingly half-hearted effort. It wouldn't be a surprise to find the stable expected more. Many of the Botti two-year-olds run their best race third start so it could pay to be careful with this youngster intent on laying this horse. He may be capable of better but needs to show more to win.
Ann Duffield has a stable full of two-year-olds and a number of talents. Rangooned ran a fair race on debut at this course but dropping back a furlong. She had her work cut out against the first three who had experience and a ability. Finishing just behind Annie Gogh would suggest improvement is needed. The betting is the best guide to this fillies' chances. If priced 13/2 & less this grey has fair place claims.
Of the others, the two debutantes make most appeal although they will need to be primed to trouble the major contenders who will burst from the stalls.
Lebresem is trained by James Tate and owned by Saeed Manana. I've been impressed by his trainer, especially the way a number of his juveniles have run big races on debut, often at fancy odds. A relatively wide draw is a concern and a turning track can bring problems for inexperienced horses. This youngster has a tough task keeping tabs on the likes of Bapak Bangsawan and Moviesta.
Another class trainer who deserves respect is William Muir. His debutantes don't feature the best strike rate but they often prime one or two for big debut runs, especially at this course. Secret Missile - a son of Sakhee's Secret - cost £45,000 at the yearling sale when purchased by Muir. I would take a watching brief but from a low draw it isn't beyond the realms to see this colt run well at a price.
Conclusion: Experience counts for a lot on a turning course and a couple of these juveniles have an abundance of pace. It would be a brave soul to back against Bapak Bangsawan and Moviesta. The former is very fast if let loose but looks prone at the finish. Whether this turning course will help him last to the line is a matter for debate. There is no guarantee front-running tactics will be employed. Personally, I would rather see this youngster try to lead all the way but after a couple of failed attempts Ryan may save him for a fighting finish. Moviesta is the most guaranteed of the pair although a wide draw does bring some conflict. As it's a moderate field I can see Ffrench sitting just off the pace and try to catch the pigeon if it flies. At restricted odds it does temper my enthusiasm to bet although the horse to beat. The rest have their work cut out. Most need to improve and the debutantes will need to be smart and primed to keep competitive in the early stages. They are likely to be outpaced.
Nine two-year-olds take part in this intriguing race. Six colts, three fillies, the majority raced.
Bapak Bangsawan has been a busy boy for Kevin Ryan running five time so far. This son of Pastoral Pursuits is a home bred with bristling pace. There is a lot to like about his last two efforts, when returning to the minimum trip. This May foal was only collard in the closing stages at Southwell by a decent filly and similarly when taking his chance at York. It was surprising to see this bay colt touch huge odds-on in-running because although he held every chance he never quite ran away from the field. By all accounts he could well be defined at a short runner. However, turning courses are often easier than straight five furlongs and from a low draw Bapak Bangsawan may just about last home. This youngster could well be a good back to lay if following those bold front-running tactics. At times, making such assumptions can be a costly exercise because it often coincides with a change of plans. Time will tell whether Amy Ryan tries to lead all the way or hold-up tactics are employed. This colt has plenty of speed but prone to be caught in the final furlong.
Bryan Smart has had a relatively quiet season with his juveniles but Moviesta is held in some regard by the stable. Owned by Harry Redknapp, this breeze-up purchase cost 44,000gns from a decent family. This American bred son of Hard Spun was well backed on debut but struggled from a wide draw, which could well have been the difference between winning and losing. It is never ideal for a debutante to be on the flank. Inexperience was costly but there is little doubt in my mind he was fit and ready to go that day. Eaves certainly didn't hold back in his efforts when racing over the minimum distance. He stepped up to 6f next start and, once again, was fancied in the betting. The field were strung out at the line in what was probably a decent race. The winner, Melody Of Love, is held in high regard by Ann Duffield. She was runner-up at listed class next start. The third ran creditably when losing by a neck at Warwick. Moviesta took a keen hold that day which may have left him susceptible to a strong finisher. There is a lot to like about this colt but a wide draw could be a thorn in his side. With a number of the opposition looking moderate I would be hopeful this colt will sit just off the pace. This drop back to 5f should curb his tendency to race too free.
Marco Botti is a class trainer and Miako a good-looking chestnut colt. This breeze-up purchase cost £65,000 after not being sold at Keeneland sales as a yearling. He was well backed on debut but eased when all chance of winning had faded. He looked to have little hope of beating huge odds-on shot New Fforest over course and distance next start. However, connections must have been disappointed by a seemingly half-hearted effort. It wouldn't be a surprise to find the stable expected more. Many of the Botti two-year-olds run their best race third start so it could pay to be careful with this youngster intent on laying this horse. He may be capable of better but needs to show more to win.
Ann Duffield has a stable full of two-year-olds and a number of talents. Rangooned ran a fair race on debut at this course but dropping back a furlong. She had her work cut out against the first three who had experience and a ability. Finishing just behind Annie Gogh would suggest improvement is needed. The betting is the best guide to this fillies' chances. If priced 13/2 & less this grey has fair place claims.
Of the others, the two debutantes make most appeal although they will need to be primed to trouble the major contenders who will burst from the stalls.
Lebresem is trained by James Tate and owned by Saeed Manana. I've been impressed by his trainer, especially the way a number of his juveniles have run big races on debut, often at fancy odds. A relatively wide draw is a concern and a turning track can bring problems for inexperienced horses. This youngster has a tough task keeping tabs on the likes of Bapak Bangsawan and Moviesta.
Another class trainer who deserves respect is William Muir. His debutantes don't feature the best strike rate but they often prime one or two for big debut runs, especially at this course. Secret Missile - a son of Sakhee's Secret - cost £45,000 at the yearling sale when purchased by Muir. I would take a watching brief but from a low draw it isn't beyond the realms to see this colt run well at a price.
Conclusion: Experience counts for a lot on a turning course and a couple of these juveniles have an abundance of pace. It would be a brave soul to back against Bapak Bangsawan and Moviesta. The former is very fast if let loose but looks prone at the finish. Whether this turning course will help him last to the line is a matter for debate. There is no guarantee front-running tactics will be employed. Personally, I would rather see this youngster try to lead all the way but after a couple of failed attempts Ryan may save him for a fighting finish. Moviesta is the most guaranteed of the pair although a wide draw does bring some conflict. As it's a moderate field I can see Ffrench sitting just off the pace and try to catch the pigeon if it flies. At restricted odds it does temper my enthusiasm to bet although the horse to beat. The rest have their work cut out. Most need to improve and the debutantes will need to be smart and primed to keep competitive in the early stages. They are likely to be outpaced.
Saturday, 15 September 2012
2:25 Doncaster - One Call Insurance Champagne Stakes (Group 2)
A field of just five runners for this prestigious contest over 7f on good ground.
Dundonnel has been a talking horse for Roger Charlton, in the Frankel silks of Khalid Abdullah. This American bred colt by First Defence has been on a steady incline after winning a run-of-the-mill auction race at Lingfield. He showed a bold display taking the Acomb Stakes (Group 3) beating Steeler who has since won at Listed class.
By all accounts this looks a match with Richard Hannon's Toronado. This son of High Chaparral is a handsome colt and dual winner, still untested after winning at Listed class. Hannon said this youngster will be given an easy two-year-old campaign which indicates the regard this juvenile is held.
A tantalising race and the winner will most likely be a major fancy for the Racing Post Trophy (Group 1).
Dundonnel has been a talking horse for Roger Charlton, in the Frankel silks of Khalid Abdullah. This American bred colt by First Defence has been on a steady incline after winning a run-of-the-mill auction race at Lingfield. He showed a bold display taking the Acomb Stakes (Group 3) beating Steeler who has since won at Listed class.
By all accounts this looks a match with Richard Hannon's Toronado. This son of High Chaparral is a handsome colt and dual winner, still untested after winning at Listed class. Hannon said this youngster will be given an easy two-year-old campaign which indicates the regard this juvenile is held.
A tantalising race and the winner will most likely be a major fancy for the Racing Post Trophy (Group 1).
Saturday, 8 September 2012
2:25 York (9th September) Free Horse Racing Tips
An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f 89y on good to firm ground.
Good prize money on offer for this flying five. All eight juveniles have raced at least once, many showing promise. Two fillies take on the colts from a selection of talented trainers.
Bapak Bangsawan has race four times for Kevin Ryan. This home bred has shown good pace on his last two starts and you can see why his trainer would feel this quick 5f could play to his strengths. This bay colt, a son of Pastoral Pursuits, ran as if his tail was on fire at Southwell, before tiring in the closing stages when easily outpaced by Girl At The Sands, who does all of her running at the finish. This two-year-old has plenty of pace but the form of his last race has taken a few knocks and bar the comfortable winner this event looks a even tougher contest. The type to lead the way and then tired in the final furlong.
Rivellino is worth noting. This son of Invincible Spirit was purchased at the breeze-up sales for 57,000gns. There was plenty of confidence for this bay colt on debut at Ascot when well supported in the market to favouritism. After being restless in the stalls, he travelled well and looked a major threat but was outpaced by the winner in the final furlong. The form of that race may not be as strong as it first looked. However, Mrs Karl Burke's stable are a canny outfit and they generally know what it takes to win a juvenile event. Rivellino hasn't run since July so whether he had a slight problem or given time to grow is an interesting point to consider. He still holds entries for the Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) & Middle Park Stakes (Group 1). This stable doesn't give classy entries for no reason and I would be confident this youngster has ability. His first race and these lofty engagements suggest 6f is his trip so you have to wonder whether this minimum distance will pose a problem. I can imagine connections have slight reservations about this point but tempted by the decent purse and hope this colt has the pace to sit handy and then finish with some zeal. If fancied in the betting, this April foal has strong win and place claims.
A J Cook was set a tough task on debut: making his racecourse bow at Ripon at Stakes class. David Barron is a very astute trainer and while many pundits viewed this youngster to have little chance against a couple of previous winners I took a more philosophical view. I remembered seeing Ahern win on his debut at Musselburgh in the same grade and I consider it a positive for this good-looking gelding by Mujadil. He was a great purchase at 16,000euros and worth considerably more even after finishing fourth of four that day. After showing inexperience, this bay gelding plugged on giving the impression he would improve a good deal for that first start. The form of that race looks decent and if priced 13/2 & less SP is a sound each way bet.
Richard Fahey often sends his better juveniles to York and fields two for this contest. Right Touch looks the more favoured of the pair. This son of Royal Applause hasn't been beaten far on both starts to date over 6f although the form is a little difficult to assess in ways. With none of the juveniles racing since the Newmarket event you are betting blind to some extent. He was keen that day so this drop back to the minimum distance may not be a hindrance although you can never be dogmatic about these things. It speaks well that the trainer sends him here but I would take a watching brief.
The stable's other representative, Heaven's Guest, was well beaten on debut and needs to progress to figure over this shorter trip. If substantially backed it would bring more confidence.
The Art Of Racing was very well supported on debut at Windsor but disappointed. This son of Acclamation cost 87,000gns at the breeze-up sales and you have to consider Hannon expected a big run that day. As it happens the form of that race has been franked on a number of occasions and the stable had the second - a fair sort - who was seemingly second string that day. This youngster is owned by Qatar Racing Limited who do not lack in the money department and could be a significant owner for the stable. The winner, King Dragon, was fancied and ran with real purpose. For The Art Of Racing to start favourite it must have been significant. Perhaps the soft ground just didn't suit or he suffered an injury which has kept him off course since July. The best guide will be the betting. If strongly fancied I would expect a bold show.
Cross My Heart is a half-sister to the talented Stepper Point but showed little ability on debut at Warwick. There were a couple of speed horses in the field that day and it could be the case everything happened too quickly. The betting will tell the story. If priced 13/2 & less SP I would expect a much-improved performance.
The other filly in the line up is Noel Wilson's Ridgeblade. This breeze-up purchase was unfancied on debut at Thirsk and never a factor. Best watched.
Conclusion: A difficult race to assess in many ways. Most of these juveniles have shown a glimmer of talent but perhaps none with cast iron form to say they are the one to stand out in this field. The betting will be the key. Rivellino may have issues with his 5f but if priced 13/2 & less SP has strong win and place claims. A J Cook is another who could be a live wire if fancied in the betting and likely to improve a good deal. He probably holds the best form and should be respected. The form of The Art Of Racing has been franked although it still seemed a disappointing effort. There could be much more to come but you have to take a leap of faith. If substantially backed it would speak volumes. I wouldn't look beyond these three and favour the first two as decent each way bets if priced 13/2 & less SP.
Good prize money on offer for this flying five. All eight juveniles have raced at least once, many showing promise. Two fillies take on the colts from a selection of talented trainers.
Bapak Bangsawan has race four times for Kevin Ryan. This home bred has shown good pace on his last two starts and you can see why his trainer would feel this quick 5f could play to his strengths. This bay colt, a son of Pastoral Pursuits, ran as if his tail was on fire at Southwell, before tiring in the closing stages when easily outpaced by Girl At The Sands, who does all of her running at the finish. This two-year-old has plenty of pace but the form of his last race has taken a few knocks and bar the comfortable winner this event looks a even tougher contest. The type to lead the way and then tired in the final furlong.
Rivellino is worth noting. This son of Invincible Spirit was purchased at the breeze-up sales for 57,000gns. There was plenty of confidence for this bay colt on debut at Ascot when well supported in the market to favouritism. After being restless in the stalls, he travelled well and looked a major threat but was outpaced by the winner in the final furlong. The form of that race may not be as strong as it first looked. However, Mrs Karl Burke's stable are a canny outfit and they generally know what it takes to win a juvenile event. Rivellino hasn't run since July so whether he had a slight problem or given time to grow is an interesting point to consider. He still holds entries for the Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) & Middle Park Stakes (Group 1). This stable doesn't give classy entries for no reason and I would be confident this youngster has ability. His first race and these lofty engagements suggest 6f is his trip so you have to wonder whether this minimum distance will pose a problem. I can imagine connections have slight reservations about this point but tempted by the decent purse and hope this colt has the pace to sit handy and then finish with some zeal. If fancied in the betting, this April foal has strong win and place claims.
A J Cook was set a tough task on debut: making his racecourse bow at Ripon at Stakes class. David Barron is a very astute trainer and while many pundits viewed this youngster to have little chance against a couple of previous winners I took a more philosophical view. I remembered seeing Ahern win on his debut at Musselburgh in the same grade and I consider it a positive for this good-looking gelding by Mujadil. He was a great purchase at 16,000euros and worth considerably more even after finishing fourth of four that day. After showing inexperience, this bay gelding plugged on giving the impression he would improve a good deal for that first start. The form of that race looks decent and if priced 13/2 & less SP is a sound each way bet.
Richard Fahey often sends his better juveniles to York and fields two for this contest. Right Touch looks the more favoured of the pair. This son of Royal Applause hasn't been beaten far on both starts to date over 6f although the form is a little difficult to assess in ways. With none of the juveniles racing since the Newmarket event you are betting blind to some extent. He was keen that day so this drop back to the minimum distance may not be a hindrance although you can never be dogmatic about these things. It speaks well that the trainer sends him here but I would take a watching brief.
The stable's other representative, Heaven's Guest, was well beaten on debut and needs to progress to figure over this shorter trip. If substantially backed it would bring more confidence.
The Art Of Racing was very well supported on debut at Windsor but disappointed. This son of Acclamation cost 87,000gns at the breeze-up sales and you have to consider Hannon expected a big run that day. As it happens the form of that race has been franked on a number of occasions and the stable had the second - a fair sort - who was seemingly second string that day. This youngster is owned by Qatar Racing Limited who do not lack in the money department and could be a significant owner for the stable. The winner, King Dragon, was fancied and ran with real purpose. For The Art Of Racing to start favourite it must have been significant. Perhaps the soft ground just didn't suit or he suffered an injury which has kept him off course since July. The best guide will be the betting. If strongly fancied I would expect a bold show.
Cross My Heart is a half-sister to the talented Stepper Point but showed little ability on debut at Warwick. There were a couple of speed horses in the field that day and it could be the case everything happened too quickly. The betting will tell the story. If priced 13/2 & less SP I would expect a much-improved performance.
The other filly in the line up is Noel Wilson's Ridgeblade. This breeze-up purchase was unfancied on debut at Thirsk and never a factor. Best watched.
Conclusion: A difficult race to assess in many ways. Most of these juveniles have shown a glimmer of talent but perhaps none with cast iron form to say they are the one to stand out in this field. The betting will be the key. Rivellino may have issues with his 5f but if priced 13/2 & less SP has strong win and place claims. A J Cook is another who could be a live wire if fancied in the betting and likely to improve a good deal. He probably holds the best form and should be respected. The form of The Art Of Racing has been franked although it still seemed a disappointing effort. There could be much more to come but you have to take a leap of faith. If substantially backed it would speak volumes. I wouldn't look beyond these three and favour the first two as decent each way bets if priced 13/2 & less SP.
Tuesday, 14 August 2012
3:15 Beverley (15th August) Free Horse Racing Tips
A restricted Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f on good to firm ground.
I've got the egg if you've got the spoon. Only kidding, but a good few of these look pretty moderate horses.
My focus will be on Lucy Minaj, trained by Bryan Smart. This bay filly, a daughter of Dylan Thomas, ran well on debut and looked to have a fine chance next time at Redcar. Smart's youngster was a little weak in the betting that day but I still had high hopes of a strong performance and gave this horse as an HCE Gold Tip selection. It ran terrible. After some time on the sidelines, she was simply fired-up and pulled much too hard, ruining any chance of finishing the race. It was the icing on the cake to see Smart's second string win at odds of 66/1. I cannot believe Lucy Minaj isn't better than the winner but today will be the test. The drop back to the minimum trip will help and from a low draw this will be her day for glory if it is ever going to happen. The betting will be key. If backed, or at least starting at relatively short odds, expect a big run. Conversely, if this horse is very weak in the betting, leave well alone.
Bog Snog is a fair bay gelding for this grade. He showed little on debut but I gave him a big shout over course and distance when runner-up to a decent Johnston debutante. He was 66/1 that day and led for most. Linda Stubbs is a talented trainer. In fact, this yard is one of my favourites. This son of Moss Vale drifted alarmingly in the betting at Ayr but ran a superb race, losing narrowly. Make no mistake this horse has a determined attitude which goes a long way in these lowly affairs. Probably priced to chance but the most proven horse in the field and will run well.
Teetotal has shown a glimmer of ability but nothing special. The rest of the opposition look pretty moderate and best watched.
Conclusion: There will be no excuse for Lucy Minaj today. She is the classic first or last brigade. That last performance looked hopeless but I had very good reason for giving her as an HCE Gold Tip. It's just Sod's Law she had a disaster by pulling much too hard. Horses simply cannot win like that and no doubt Smart is trying to remedy that brazen tendency by stepping back in distance. On breeding you would imagine she needs further but you have to trust the trainer knows best. The betting is key and ideally you would want to see her well backed. That would be a sign that last time was an all round disappointment. I have no doubt the stable expected a big run at Redcar. However, these things happen. I would be tempted to bet a few quid at fancy odds on the exchange and hope she is backed. There will be no excuse after this race: win or lose. Rather than betting each way, I would be tempted to have a win bet on Lucy Minaj and Bog Snog. Stubbs' juvenile will go well. The horse to beat. If playing it safe, wait to see if Lucy Minaj is well supported close to the off. That will be the significant pointer. If weak in the betting, keep your cash in your pocket.
A fascinating race.
I've got the egg if you've got the spoon. Only kidding, but a good few of these look pretty moderate horses.
My focus will be on Lucy Minaj, trained by Bryan Smart. This bay filly, a daughter of Dylan Thomas, ran well on debut and looked to have a fine chance next time at Redcar. Smart's youngster was a little weak in the betting that day but I still had high hopes of a strong performance and gave this horse as an HCE Gold Tip selection. It ran terrible. After some time on the sidelines, she was simply fired-up and pulled much too hard, ruining any chance of finishing the race. It was the icing on the cake to see Smart's second string win at odds of 66/1. I cannot believe Lucy Minaj isn't better than the winner but today will be the test. The drop back to the minimum trip will help and from a low draw this will be her day for glory if it is ever going to happen. The betting will be key. If backed, or at least starting at relatively short odds, expect a big run. Conversely, if this horse is very weak in the betting, leave well alone.
Bog Snog is a fair bay gelding for this grade. He showed little on debut but I gave him a big shout over course and distance when runner-up to a decent Johnston debutante. He was 66/1 that day and led for most. Linda Stubbs is a talented trainer. In fact, this yard is one of my favourites. This son of Moss Vale drifted alarmingly in the betting at Ayr but ran a superb race, losing narrowly. Make no mistake this horse has a determined attitude which goes a long way in these lowly affairs. Probably priced to chance but the most proven horse in the field and will run well.
Teetotal has shown a glimmer of ability but nothing special. The rest of the opposition look pretty moderate and best watched.
Conclusion: There will be no excuse for Lucy Minaj today. She is the classic first or last brigade. That last performance looked hopeless but I had very good reason for giving her as an HCE Gold Tip. It's just Sod's Law she had a disaster by pulling much too hard. Horses simply cannot win like that and no doubt Smart is trying to remedy that brazen tendency by stepping back in distance. On breeding you would imagine she needs further but you have to trust the trainer knows best. The betting is key and ideally you would want to see her well backed. That would be a sign that last time was an all round disappointment. I have no doubt the stable expected a big run at Redcar. However, these things happen. I would be tempted to bet a few quid at fancy odds on the exchange and hope she is backed. There will be no excuse after this race: win or lose. Rather than betting each way, I would be tempted to have a win bet on Lucy Minaj and Bog Snog. Stubbs' juvenile will go well. The horse to beat. If playing it safe, wait to see if Lucy Minaj is well supported close to the off. That will be the significant pointer. If weak in the betting, keep your cash in your pocket.
A fascinating race.
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