Saturday 8 September 2012

2:25 York (9th September) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f 89y on good to firm ground. 

Good prize money on offer for this flying five. All eight juveniles have raced at least once, many showing promise. Two fillies take on the colts from a selection of talented trainers.

Bapak Bangsawan has race four times for Kevin Ryan. This home bred has shown good pace on his last two starts and you can see why his trainer would feel this quick 5f could play to his strengths. This bay colt, a son of Pastoral Pursuits, ran as if his tail was on fire at Southwell, before tiring in the closing stages when easily outpaced by Girl At The Sands, who does all of her running at the finish. This two-year-old has plenty of pace but the form of his last race has taken a few knocks and bar the comfortable winner this event looks a even tougher contest. The type to lead the way and then tired in the final furlong.

Rivellino is worth noting. This son of Invincible Spirit was purchased at the breeze-up sales for 57,000gns. There was plenty of confidence for this bay colt on debut at Ascot when well supported in the market to favouritism. After being restless in the stalls, he travelled well and looked a major threat but was outpaced by the winner in the final furlong. The form of that race may not be as strong as it first looked. However, Mrs Karl Burke's stable are a canny outfit and they generally know what it takes to win a juvenile event. Rivellino hasn't run since July so whether he had a slight problem or given time to grow is an interesting point to consider. He still holds entries for the Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) & Middle Park Stakes (Group 1). This stable doesn't give classy entries for no reason and I would be confident this youngster has ability. His first race and these lofty engagements suggest 6f is his trip so you have to wonder whether this minimum distance will pose a problem. I can imagine connections have slight reservations about this point but tempted by the decent purse and hope this colt has the pace to sit handy and then finish with some zeal. If fancied in the betting, this April foal has strong win and place claims. 

A J Cook was set a tough task on debut: making his racecourse bow at Ripon at Stakes class. David Barron is a very astute trainer and while many pundits viewed this youngster to have little chance against a couple of previous winners I took a more philosophical view. I remembered seeing Ahern win on his debut at Musselburgh in the same grade and I consider it a positive for this good-looking gelding by Mujadil. He was a great purchase at 16,000euros and worth considerably more even after finishing fourth of four that day. After showing inexperience, this bay gelding plugged on giving the impression he would improve a good deal for that first start. The form of that race looks decent and if priced 13/2 & less SP is a sound each way bet.

Richard Fahey often sends his better juveniles to York and fields two for this contest. Right Touch looks the more favoured of the pair. This son of Royal Applause hasn't been beaten far on both starts to date over 6f although the form is a little difficult to assess in ways. With none of the juveniles racing since the Newmarket event you are betting blind to some extent. He was keen that day so this drop back to the minimum distance may not be a hindrance although you can never be dogmatic about these things. It speaks well that the trainer sends him here but I would take a watching brief.

The stable's other representative, Heaven's Guest, was well beaten on debut and needs to progress to figure over this shorter trip. If substantially backed it would bring more confidence.

The Art Of Racing was very well supported on debut at Windsor but disappointed. This son of Acclamation cost 87,000gns at the breeze-up sales and you have to consider Hannon expected a big run that day. As it happens the form of that race has been franked on a number of occasions and the stable had the second - a fair sort - who was seemingly second string that day. This youngster is owned by Qatar Racing Limited who do not lack in the money department and could be a significant owner for the stable. The winner, King Dragon, was fancied and ran with real purpose. For The Art Of Racing to start favourite it must have been significant. Perhaps the soft ground just didn't suit or he suffered an injury which has kept him off course since July. The best guide will be the betting. If strongly fancied I would expect a bold show.

Cross My Heart is a half-sister to the talented Stepper Point but showed little ability on debut at Warwick. There were a couple of speed horses in the field that day and it could be the case everything happened too quickly. The betting will tell the story. If priced 13/2 & less SP I would expect a much-improved performance. 

The other filly in the line up is Noel Wilson's Ridgeblade. This breeze-up purchase was unfancied on debut at Thirsk and never a factor. Best watched.

Conclusion: A difficult race to assess in many ways. Most of these juveniles have shown a glimmer of talent but perhaps none with cast iron form to say they are the one to stand out in this field. The betting will be the key. Rivellino may have issues with his 5f but if priced 13/2 & less SP has strong win and place claims. A J Cook is another who could be a live wire if fancied in the betting and likely to improve a good deal. He probably holds the best form and should be respected. The form of The Art Of Racing has been franked although it still seemed a disappointing effort. There could be much more to come but you have to take a leap of faith. If substantially backed it would speak volumes. I wouldn't look beyond these three and favour the first two as decent each way bets if priced 13/2 & less SP.