Tuesday 14 August 2012

3:15 Beverley (15th August) Free Horse Racing Tips

A restricted Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f on good to firm ground.

I've got the egg if you've got the spoon. Only kidding, but a good few of these look pretty moderate horses.

My focus will be on Lucy Minaj, trained by Bryan Smart. This bay filly, a daughter of Dylan Thomas, ran well on debut and looked to have a fine chance next time at Redcar. Smart's youngster was a little weak in the betting that day but I still had high hopes of a strong performance and gave this horse as an HCE Gold Tip selection. It ran terrible. After some time on the sidelines, she was simply fired-up and pulled much too hard, ruining any chance of finishing the race. It was the icing on the cake to see Smart's second string win at odds of 66/1. I cannot believe Lucy Minaj isn't better than the winner but today will be the test. The drop back to the minimum trip will help and from a low draw this will be her day for glory if it is ever going to happen. The betting will be key. If backed, or at least starting at relatively short odds, expect a big run. Conversely, if this horse is very weak in the betting, leave well alone. 

Bog Snog is a fair bay gelding for this grade. He showed little on debut but I gave him a big shout over course and distance when runner-up to a decent Johnston debutante. He was 66/1 that day and led for most. Linda Stubbs is a talented trainer. In fact, this yard is one of my favourites. This son of Moss Vale drifted alarmingly in the betting at Ayr but ran a superb race, losing narrowly. Make no mistake this horse has a determined attitude which goes a long way in these lowly affairs. Probably priced to chance but the most proven horse in the field and will run well.

Teetotal has shown a glimmer of ability but nothing special. The rest of the opposition look pretty moderate and best watched.

Conclusion: There will be no excuse for Lucy Minaj today. She is the classic first or last brigade. That last performance looked hopeless but I had very good reason for giving her as an HCE Gold Tip. It's just Sod's Law she had a disaster by pulling much too hard. Horses simply cannot win like that and no doubt Smart is trying to remedy that brazen tendency by stepping back in distance. On breeding you would imagine she needs further but you have to trust the trainer knows best. The betting is key and ideally you would want to see her well backed. That would be a sign that last time was an all round disappointment. I have no doubt the stable expected a big run at Redcar. However, these things happen. I would be tempted to bet a few quid at fancy odds on the exchange and hope she is backed. There will be no excuse after this race: win or lose. Rather than betting each way, I would be tempted to have a win bet on Lucy Minaj and Bog Snog. Stubbs' juvenile will go well. The horse to beat. If playing it safe, wait to see if Lucy Minaj is well supported close to the off. That will be the significant pointer. If weak in the betting, keep your cash in your pocket.

A fascinating race.