Sunday 21 April 2013

2:10 Pontefract (22nd April) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 5f on good ground. Sixteen two-year-olds compete including seven with race experience. 

David Evans has been in fine form this year making a name for himself as a talented trainer. His trademark keep-busy attitude with his two-year-olds means they never sit in their boxes for long. *Limegrove ran well on debut and made an encouraging return at Newmarket when finishing a creditable seventh. This daughter of Captain Gerrard showed good pace before tiring in the final furlong and slightly hampered thereafter. It is difficult to assess the merit of that performance at this time but with a host of big-name trainers it could well prove to be a fair contest. She was beaten less than four lengths, which must bring her into the reckoning. This course often suits front runners who cling to the rail and Evans' youngster could well take the lead. 

Shelley's Choice finished one length behind Limegrove after leading for most. Tom Dascombe's representative showed good pace that day and could well contest the lead. She wasn't particularly fancied in the betting that day which could suggest she was slightly in need of the run. The stable feature fair win and place claims if fancied in the betting. If seriously backed, I would expect an improved performance but a weakness in the betting would suggest Limegrove has the edge.

Michael Appleby doesn't have the biggest string of juveniles but he probably feels he has a decent filly in Mops Angel, who started her career in the Brocklesby. This February foal, out of a mare who Appleby trained, finished fourth that day and was far from disgraced. To be fair, the Brocklesby form has taken a few knocks with those down the field although the first and second have proven to be talented horses. The field were so strung out at Doncaster that it is difficult to draw the line on the merit of Mops Angel. I often feel a little biased against the smaller trainers and would rather they prove they have ability. However, this bay filly should be respected.

Of the others with experience Dotesy was a cheap yearling buy for John Quinn. This daughter of Indian Haven was relatively fancied at Redcar and not beaten by huge margins after being slowly away. I often associate the stable with Pontefract as they have sent some of their better prospects here in the past. Money talks with this yard and if seriously backed I would expect a big run. Not the easiest of horses to assess but if that first run was a disappointment there could be more to come.

The debutantes will need to be primed to win, especially so on this turning course which favours experience. A few of the trainers have very good records here and worthy of closer inspection.

Kevin Ryan is a force to be reckoned with his debutantes here and a good few winners have gone on to be quite classy. He fields two runners: Madam Mirasol & Lady Captain. The betting is probably the best indicator of first and second string. Both come from from winning mares and sprinting sires so could measure up. Few of their horses win when priced over 12/1, so this is a good guide to set your stall. A number of their winners at Pontefract have been priced from 8/1 - 10/1. 

Richard Fahey has had a number of two-year-olds run this season but yet to hit the bulls eye. He has been quoted as saying they have a different type of juvenile which in ways concerns me. There is little doubt the stable will field a good few winners and potentially a star or two but a change of format can often need time to adjust. As I have mentioned before, Kevin Ryan had a similar practice a couple of years back and they reverted back to type after disappointment. Heskin hails from a very successful owner who needs little introduction with horses such as Garswood. Richard Fahey is one trainer who can win on debut. In fact he and Peter Chapple-Hyam are in my opinion a class apart. This daughter of Acclamation cost 105,000euros at the yearling sales and one of the most expensive two-year-olds to be seen this year. It is a concern the stable are still to send out a juvenile winner with a number looking in need of the experience. However, this bay must have claims if priced in single figures.

Hello Beautiful is drawn well and interesting to note she has been entered for a Stakes race. With the stable's first juvenile runner going well at Ripon it gives greater encouragement. This daughter of Captain Rio could go well at a price if starting on terms.

Queenie's Home is trained by James Given's. This grey daughter of Shamardal cost 52,000euros at the yearling sales and out of a Listed-placed mare. It is worth noting that her trainer won this race last year with Jadanna, who won her first two starts and raced at Group class. The negative is that the stable have very few debut winners. They feature a  good place rate with favourites. I would have to take a watching brief.

She's A Lucky Lady is worth noting in the betting as the stable have a good line with Mick's Yer Man. If strongly backed, take note.

The other debutantes are best watched.

Conclusion: A tricky race. The form horse have a fair advantage on this turning course. Shelley's Choice & Limegrove are likely to make a bold show and could steal a lead. This could well prove a decisive advantage. The form of their first start has been franked and it could be up to winning a race of this nature. There wasn't a great deal between the pair and although it seems logical to favour Limegrove Shelley's Choice wasn't hugely fancied that day which could indicate she is limited or that she needed the run. If well backed, I would expect this pair to be on a par with each other. It is difficult to assess Mops Angel. I respect her chances but would take a watching brief. Of the debutantes Heskin catches the eye. Fahey is bound to have a winning juvenile soon although the stable does seem a touch quiet for me. Could go well if fancied but a watching brief until the stable hit form. Kevin Ryan's pair are worth noting. If priced 12/1 & less it wouldn't surprise me at all if he had a winner. Hello Beautiful could be a live chance as the stable go well here and can win with debutantes.