Wednesday 17 April 2013

2:10 Ripon (18th April) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden race over 5f on good ground. Thirteen two-year-olds compete, just about an equal mix of colts & fillies. Four juveniles have one race under their belt. Over the last few years, this race has been targeted by Tim Easterby with some of his best fillies. 

Race experience is often a huge advantage with two-year-olds. Yesterday, we witnessed Brian Ellison's Penina winning at Beverley at odds of 40/1 after finishing last on debut. It is a strange factor that horses which look hopeless can make fearsome rivals on their second start. 

Ellison fields Claudia Octavia who showed next to no ability at Southwell. To be fair it would be a surprise to see this filly win but stranger things have happened. Best watched.

Blithe Spirit, a daughter of Byron trained by Eric Alston, ran in a fairly competitive race at Wolverhampton on debut. She showed good pace but tired in the closing stages which suggested she was unfit or limited. Alston can train juvenile winners although I associate him with nursery races and would rather watch and learn today.

Mark Johnston has been busy with his juveniles this season and most have looked exceptionally well in their coats and my guess is that they are quite forward. He has a wealth of talent with prestigious owners who have money to spend. The stable have sent out a couple of winners while others have run well. For that reason it was quite surprising to see Princess Tamay so weak in the betting on debut at Kempton. At 15,000euros,  this February foal is a cheap buy and probably no world beater. The betting on debut suggested she is either limited or needed the run. This daughter of Tamayuz isn't the biggest and it could well pay to hold fire if wanting to bet early on the exchanges because she could drift in the market. If fancied in the betting it would give more hope but I have reservations about this horse especially with Memory Styx [second] being beaten at Beverley.

*Fuel Injection has raced twice and been fancied on both starts, although disappointing in some respects. This son of Pastoral Pursuits is a good-looking colt with some strength. He was quite fancied in the Brocklesby and showed pace, while a slow start at Redcar saw his jockey bustle him up to join the lead and that all looked a touch too frantic. He  has a hell of a lot to prove but if touching huge odds could be worth a speculative punt.

The debutantes come from a number of talented two-year-old trainers, which makes it problematic to narrow down the field. It is best to let the betting settle before taking the plunge.

With a sizable field it will be interesting to see if they split into two groups. Whether a low draw is a plus or a negative is a matter of debate. Rokeby was withdrawn at the sales but a half-brother to Momalorka, who raced at Group class for William Haggis. George Moore doesn't have many talented juveniles but this race has been a starting point to his best in the last few years. Even with a wide draw their could be money for this son of Byron.

Highland Princess is best watched.

The most interesting newcomers include: Withernsea, Ventura Mist, Baltic Fire, Azagal, Spirit Of Goodchild & Muspelheim. At this time [Wednesday, evening] it is next to impossible to gain great influence from the betting exchanges. For that reason I will highlight the major factors of significance.

The betting is key for Spirit Of Goodchild. If priced 13/2 & less SP this colt would have strong win and place claims. If weak in the betting best watched.

Muspelheim hails from Ann Duffield's stable who often go well at Ripon, a course she often sends her juveniles for pre-race experience. Probably best watched but they can spring a surprise.

Mrs Karl Burke is a superb trainer and someone I respect with their two-year-olds. Baltic Fire cost 12,000euros at the yearling sales. The betting is key. If priced 10/1 & less he has fair win and place claims. 

Withernsea is likely to go well. Richard Fahey is yet to fire in a juvenile winner but a good few have shown promise and this son of Dark Angel cost 38,000gns at the yearling sales. He is a half-brother to Jamesway and Star Rover who both won on debut, the latter especially talented. The stable can ready a debutante and I would expect this Irish bred to run a big race.

Last but not least are the Tim Easterby representatives: Azagal & Ventura Mist. I would expect the first string to run a big race because the stable have targeted this race over the last few years. Horses such as Cristal Clear, Venture Girl, Cocktail Charlie & Queen's Revenge are just a few of note. The betting is the best guide and the most fancied would get preference.

Conclusion: A difficult race to assess at the time of writing as the betting doesn't give too many pointers. I would let the market settle before jumping in because a good few of these will drift markedly and you don't want to be on the wrong side of things. This may not be the easiest of races to win because a number of these are two-year-old trainers & debutantes can go well. This has been a particularly happy hunting ground for the likes of Tim Easterby. I must admit, I don't like Princess Tamay. If she didn't need the run at Kempton she has something to prove & tough task. The betting will give the best idea and if she is well backed it could indicate marked improvement. However, I would rather watch and learn. The betting is the best indicator for Baltic Fire and Spirit Of Goodchild. If priced 13/2 & less I would expect them to go well, especially the latter. Withernsea appeals and I can see a bold show. The first string of Tim Easterby's pair should be respected because their record in this race is exceptional. 


Other 2yo races:

1:45 Newmarket