Cheltenham Festival Big Race Trends

Just like a jockey or trainer, most people having a bet on the Cheltenham Festival are happy to come away with one winner. The four-day National Hunt extravaganza is arguably the most competitive meeting in the world and is brimming with quantity and quality in equal measure.

There will always be a few short-priced favourites at Cheltenham, but they’re not going to be a quick way to make money and there have also been plenty of occasions when they’ve been turned over.

There are definitely some trends, though, to help with the picking of Cheltenham winners. The handicaps have their own trends, but it is worth looking at them once the final entries have been announced so you know who is running in what race and what sort of weight they will be carrying.

The Grade One races are easier to examine in advance as many horses’ targets have been well publicised, so it is worth trying to pick out one or two trends from some of the big races.

The Festival starts with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, which has been won by Ireland on nine of the last 14 runnings. Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh have won the last two and are responsible for the favourite Douvan. However, Brave Inca was the last outright favourite to win the race in 2004.

Past Festival form is a reliable pointer for the Arkle Chase with nine of the last 12 winners having won or been placed previously. Nicky Henderson has won the race five times and Barry Geraghty has ridden the winner in three of the last six years, so Josses Hill appeals on those trends. Favourites have a poor record and the hot-pot Un De Sceaux hasn’t run at Cheltenham before either.

Wednesday starts with the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle and the last 15 winners have been aged five or six. Leading fancies Outlander and Parlour Games are both seven.

Age is key in the RSA Chase as well as the last eight winners have all been seven, as have 14 of the last 18. That puts Kings Palace at the forefront of considerations, especially with the eight-year-old Coneygree and six-year-old Don Poli having other options.

In the Champion Chase, three of the last five winners have been nine-year-olds, which could bode well for the past two winners of the race – Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy now that they have turned nine. Sprinter Sacre’s big-race jockey Geraghty, meanwhile, has won five of the last 12 renewals.

The World Hurdle has been a race for multiple winners as Baracouda, Inglis Drever and Big Buck’s have won nine of the last 13 runnings between them. Jonjo O’Neill has trained two of the other four winners, but he no longer has a contender after last year’s winner More Of That was ruled out.

The only thing you can guarantee about the Triumph Hurdle on the Friday is a four-year-old will win it!

As for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the highlight of the entire week, running at the Festival before, especially in the RSA Chase, has been a feature of recent winners. Favourites have a strong record in the race as well, with seven of the last 12 winning, while the winner tends to be aged between seven and nine. Irish trainers, meanwhile, have won only three of the last 17 renewals.

Looking at the trends then is one way of trying to pick a winner. But then you could have just as much success by closing your eyes and pointing at the racecard.

2014 Cheltenham Festival Day Three - St Patrick's Thursday

Bobby Talk made a bold attempt to find a few winner yesterday. To be fair he didn't do too badly with three horses going in each way. A couple ran no race at all being pulled-up and one or two simply not good enough. Such is Mr Talk's resolution that he is having another tipping session. Day Three - St Patrick's Thurdsay a perfect introduction to St Patrick's Day (17th March). Perhaps those Irish eyes will be smiling. Always. Cheers.

1:30 Cheltenham (Thursday, 14th March) Free Horse Racing Tips

1.30 Jewson Novices Chase

This race revolves around Dynaste who has looked very impressive on his three chase starts. He'll be a banker of the meeting for many and it's hard to find much strength in depth in the opposition. Captain Conan hasn't impressed me at all and his neck beating of Third Intention last time does not look good enough to win this. Module is a very short price for what he's achieved. Aupcharlie has a more realistic chance but a top price 5/1 doesn't make him back-able each-way. Argocat won a Grade 2 at Limerick last time easily where Mikael D'Haguenet fell; at the time Argocat was going well and is taken to have beaten the fallen horse anyway. This form gives Argocat a realistic each-way chance and the price seems generous.

1 pt ew Argocat 14/1 Unp

Great win from Tony Martin's horse, beating the favourite, with a superb effort from the third at 100/1.  

2.05 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)

Ultra competitive; American Trilogy needs four horses to come out to get in the race. Off a mark of 136 the handicapper has definitely given him a chance. Got a good report from Dan Skelton on The Morning Line on Saturday - that wouldn't normally influence me but I'd already got this horse identified as being of interest so it tipped the balance. He acts on the track and should appreciate a big field and fast pace. Soft ground is probably my only concern although he has won on it before.

1 pt ew American Trilogy 20/1 Unp

Another big price winner ''and tribute to Campbell Gillies'' from Holywell's jockey Richie McLernon, trained by Jonjo O'Neill.    

2.40 Ryanair Chase

This is the race for Cue Card to prove he's top class. Unfortunately he has a tendency to hit a couple of fences in some of his races. First Lieutenant is favourite but we'll see whether the drop in trip will suit - I'd prefer him to go for the Gold Cup. Albertas Run won't get his good ground and Champion Court although talented has a knack of coming second instead of winning. Riverside Theatre did not run well at Kempton and didn't look at home on track last year, despite winning. Menorah looks held on form with Cue Card. Fingers crossed Cue Card jumps well.

1 pt win Cue Card 7/2 1st


Great win from Cue Card and Sean Kelsey fights back with a fantastic selection.   

3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle

The World Hurdle has been thrown wide open by the injury to Big Bucks but there is little strength in depth and I can't see beyond the first two in the betting. Reve de Sivola just shades it for me. I was really impressed with his last run where he kept pulling out a bit more and wouldn't let Oscar Whisky pass. Oscar Whisky isn't definitely better over two and a half miles and I'm not sure the slightly less soft ground will make a difference. It could be a close one though. The Irish challenge doesn't look up to it tome in this race.

2 pts win Reve de Sivola 4/1 4th

Note: William Hill best priced Solwhit 10/1 

Solwhit improved for the step up in distance to win well, while Celestial Halo (40/1) ran a cracker in second. Reve De Sivola was always up with the pace but just not quite good enough.  

4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase

I selected Kapga de Cerisy for a race earlier in the week but he's a non-runner in that and may come here instead. He's worth a chance based on his sound beating of Fago last time. Ballynagour will be all the rage here but a rise of 20 pounds in the handicap is significant and despite the good record of favourites in this race is a little short for me at 4/1.

1 pt ew Kapga de Cerisy 14/1 Unp

4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase

An amateur jockeys handicap chase. Difficult to have a strong opinion in this but On Trend has the right sort of profile for this, winning a race at Sandown in early February on heavy ground over 3 miles.

1/2 pt ew On Trend 20/1 PU

Note: William Hill best priced Deal Done 40/1 


Thanks to Sean Kelsey for his superb guest posts