Just like a
jockey or trainer, most people having a bet on the Cheltenham
Festival are happy to come away with one winner. The four-day
National Hunt extravaganza is arguably the most competitive meeting
in the world and is brimming with quantity and quality in equal
measure.
There will
always be a few short-priced favourites at Cheltenham, but they’re
not going to be a quick way to make money and there have also been
plenty of occasions when they’ve been turned over.
There are
definitely some trends, though, to help with the picking of
Cheltenham winners. The handicaps have their own trends, but it is
worth looking at them once the final entries have been announced so
you know who is running in what race and what sort of weight they
will be carrying.
The Grade One
races are easier to examine in advance as many horses’ targets have
been well publicised, so it is worth trying to pick out one or two
trends from some of the big races.
The Festival
starts with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, which has been won by
Ireland on nine of the last 14 runnings. Willie Mullins and Ruby
Walsh have won the last two and are responsible for the favourite
Douvan. However, Brave Inca was the last outright favourite to win
the race in 2004.
Past Festival
form is a reliable pointer for the Arkle Chase with nine of the last
12 winners having won or been placed previously. Nicky Henderson has
won the race five times and Barry Geraghty has ridden the winner in
three of the last six years, so Josses
Hill appeals on those trends. Favourites have a poor
record and the hot-pot Un De Sceaux hasn’t run at Cheltenham before
either.
Wednesday starts
with the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle and the last
15 winners have been aged five or six. Leading fancies Outlander and
Parlour Games are both seven.
Age is key in
the RSA Chase as well as the last eight winners have all been seven,
as have 14 of the last 18. That puts Kings
Palace at the forefront of considerations, especially
with the eight-year-old Coneygree and six-year-old Don Poli having
other options.
In the Champion
Chase, three of the last five winners have been nine-year-olds, which
could bode well for the past two winners of the race – Sprinter
Sacre and Sire De Grugy now that they have turned nine. Sprinter
Sacre’s big-race jockey Geraghty, meanwhile, has won five of the
last 12 renewals.
The World Hurdle
has been a race for multiple winners as Baracouda, Inglis Drever and
Big Buck’s have won nine of the last 13 runnings between them.
Jonjo O’Neill has trained two of the other four winners, but he no
longer has a contender after last year’s winner More
Of That was ruled out.
The only thing
you can guarantee about the Triumph Hurdle on the Friday is a
four-year-old will win it!
As for the
Cheltenham
Gold Cup, the highlight of the entire week, running at
the Festival before, especially in the RSA Chase, has been a feature
of recent winners. Favourites have a strong record in the race as
well, with seven of the last 12 winning, while the winner tends to be
aged between seven and nine. Irish trainers, meanwhile, have won only
three of the last 17 renewals.
Looking at the
trends then is one way of trying to pick a winner. But then you could
have just as much success by closing your eyes and pointing at the
racecard.