Cliffs Of Dover in Doubt for Triumph Hurdle

JCB Triumph Hurdle fancy, Cliffs Of Dover, is doubtful for Cheltenham, trainer Paul Nicholls revealed on Tuesday. 

Formerly trained by Charlie Hills on the Flat, this son of Canford Cliffs has been a revelation since joining Nicholls, winning six of his last seven outings over hurdles. 

This four-year-old is fancied for the Triumph Hurdle but his participation could be in doubt after taking a knock while schooling. 

Nicholls, who trains the 140 rated gelding for John Cotton and his wife Barbara, said: "I schooled him just before he was going to go to Musselburgh last week and he knocked himself. It might just be a race against time to get him there. If he doesn't come right he might have to go to Aintree."

Better next season 

Nicholls' added: "He's won six - I suppose we've placed him well - but he's a good horse. 

"If we'd known more about him he wouldn't have been beaten at Market Rasen - we rode him wrong that day. He's a good horse and if we can't quite get him right this season for whatever reason he'll be better next season when he'll be a really good hurdler.

"He wants looking after and we could do with a few more like him." 

Cheltenham Festival Big Race Trends

Just like a jockey or trainer, most people having a bet on the Cheltenham Festival are happy to come away with one winner. The four-day National Hunt extravaganza is arguably the most competitive meeting in the world and is brimming with quantity and quality in equal measure.

There will always be a few short-priced favourites at Cheltenham, but they’re not going to be a quick way to make money and there have also been plenty of occasions when they’ve been turned over.

There are definitely some trends, though, to help with the picking of Cheltenham winners. The handicaps have their own trends, but it is worth looking at them once the final entries have been announced so you know who is running in what race and what sort of weight they will be carrying.

The Grade One races are easier to examine in advance as many horses’ targets have been well publicised, so it is worth trying to pick out one or two trends from some of the big races.

The Festival starts with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, which has been won by Ireland on nine of the last 14 runnings. Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh have won the last two and are responsible for the favourite Douvan. However, Brave Inca was the last outright favourite to win the race in 2004.

Past Festival form is a reliable pointer for the Arkle Chase with nine of the last 12 winners having won or been placed previously. Nicky Henderson has won the race five times and Barry Geraghty has ridden the winner in three of the last six years, so Josses Hill appeals on those trends. Favourites have a poor record and the hot-pot Un De Sceaux hasn’t run at Cheltenham before either.

Wednesday starts with the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle and the last 15 winners have been aged five or six. Leading fancies Outlander and Parlour Games are both seven.

Age is key in the RSA Chase as well as the last eight winners have all been seven, as have 14 of the last 18. That puts Kings Palace at the forefront of considerations, especially with the eight-year-old Coneygree and six-year-old Don Poli having other options.

In the Champion Chase, three of the last five winners have been nine-year-olds, which could bode well for the past two winners of the race – Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy now that they have turned nine. Sprinter Sacre’s big-race jockey Geraghty, meanwhile, has won five of the last 12 renewals.

The World Hurdle has been a race for multiple winners as Baracouda, Inglis Drever and Big Buck’s have won nine of the last 13 runnings between them. Jonjo O’Neill has trained two of the other four winners, but he no longer has a contender after last year’s winner More Of That was ruled out.

The only thing you can guarantee about the Triumph Hurdle on the Friday is a four-year-old will win it!

As for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the highlight of the entire week, running at the Festival before, especially in the RSA Chase, has been a feature of recent winners. Favourites have a strong record in the race as well, with seven of the last 12 winning, while the winner tends to be aged between seven and nine. Irish trainers, meanwhile, have won only three of the last 17 renewals.

Looking at the trends then is one way of trying to pick a winner. But then you could have just as much success by closing your eyes and pointing at the racecard.

1:30 Cheltenham ( Friday, 15th March) Free Horse Racing Tips

1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle

The top three in the market look a cut above the rest in this. Our Conor represents Ireland and has a tall reputation. He beat a couple of good horses at Fairyhouse in a grade 3 and then beat Diakali in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown. That sets the standard. Far West has got valuable course winning form but it doesn't look quite up to the level of Our Conor. Rolling Star beat the smart Irish Saint last time who followed up in a Grade 2 at Kempton. Cases can be made for all three but Our Conor may be a bit special.

1 pt win Our Conor 4/1 1st

What a great performance from Our Conor. Cruised to the lead. I actually used my William Hill C50 match bet on this tip and won £200. So it proves what these free bets are worth. Excellent tip from Sean. Brilliant.   

2.05 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

Cotton Mill is an easy selection for me in this. Raised five pounds for his second to My Tent or Yours in the Betfair Hurdle he should have the class to see this through. I'll be disappointed if he doesn't put in a bold show.

2 pts win Cotton Mill 7/1 Unp

Bryan Cooper is in flying form. Brilliant to see the young Irish jockey making a name for himself. Quite amazing. 

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2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

At Fishers Cross has valuable course winning form beating the very useful The New One and Coneygree last time. That sets the standard and his main opponent in Ballycasey who's untried at this slightly longer trip. At Fishers Cross has the form in the bag and can outstay them all up the hill.

2 pts win At Fishers Cross 9/2 1st

Great win for McCoy, traveled well, and At Fisher's Cross ran off up the hill. Great tip from Sean Kelsey who gave this horse to me earlier in the week at 9/2. The highs and lows of racing with  J T McNamara injured and thoughts of Campbell Gillies.  Poignant words from McCoy.  

3.20 Cheltenham Gold Cup

A fascinating renewal of the Gold Cup. Bobs Worth probably sets the standard on his win in the Hennessey. Not seen since then he goes well when fresh and is unbeaten in four runs at the track. That counts for a lot but one thing the pundits appear to have missed is that he's never run on soft ground let alone won on it. This may be a coincidence of course but it does prevent me backing him with confidence if it is still really soft on Friday. Sir Des Champs has another great record at the track (unbeaten in two) but has beaten twice this year. One of my favourite horses, I've never really thought of him as being quite good enough to win a Gold Cup. Long Run will attempt to win back his crown. He's stepped up on his form last season and showed great resolve in getting up to win the King George at Kempton. Soundly beaten by Silviniaco Conti at Haydock I'd be surprised if he reverses that form. Silviniaco Conti is an improving horse and won easily last time at Newbury. He's never won at Cheltenham but was placed in a (very good) hurdles race and I don't have any concerns that he won't act on the track. 

2 pts win Silviniaco Conti 9/2 Fell

Silviniaco Conti was going well when falling three out. Great finish from the little terrier Bobs Worth. A superb winner. 

4.00 Foxhunter Chase

A hunter chase with amateur riders. No bet for me.

Couple of tips from our Twitter friends:

Tricky Trickster (themastarata)
Salsify (Martindawn)

Salsify wins but what cruel luck for Oscar Delta and Jane Mangan. How sad for the youngster to be denied what looked to be a winning ride. 

4.40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap

Too many runners still entered and very difficult however I have backed Barbatos in case he's goes here instead of the Coral Cup.

No bet.

5.15 Grand Annual Chase

A two mile handicap chase that Nicky Henderson will be keen to win. If the ground dries out a bit by Friday I'd be interested in French Opera at around 25/1. He's seems to have held his form and has been dropped a few pounds by the handicapper. He has a good record at the track and looks a little overpriced.

1 pt ew French Opera 25/1. Unp

I would like to thank our guest blogger, Sean Kelsey, for his great posts. Much appreciated.