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Saturday, 9 January 2021

4:10 Chelmsford Racing Tips (9th January)

A 5f Maiden Stakes.  

Eight three-year-olds+ take their chance. Not the easiest race to assess but a couple of horses which may well go close. 

Tom Clover is a very capable trainer and Rockett Man is a chestnut son of Equiano in the ownership of The Rogues Gallery who do well with their horses. He has run over 6f on two starts and shown ability. He looks a nice horse, who had good pace last time out, when leading until outpaced in the final furlong. There is always a chance when a horse drops down in distance, it will be outpaced. There is a big difference between running over five and six furlongs. To be fair, this doesn't look as tough a race as competed last time out and the booking of a 7lb apprentice gives additional hope of a bold show. A live chance.  

In ways, Stuart William's Tributo is similar. This son of Dragon Pulse was a £28,000 2yo breeze-up purchase who was well fancied on debut at Newcastle when starting 100/30. This April foal looked inexperienced and wasn't helped by an awkward start, but was always a touch niggled along and ridden as though trying. I would have slight concerns this drop back to 5f would be a problem, and unless showing much better pace, could be outpaced on this turning course. From a statistical point of view he holds very good place claims. Looks unlikely to drift to each way odds. On the win front, Tributo holds claims and the apprentice is no doubt another way to find advantage. Off course for 50-days, there may be plenty of improvement. Time will tell. 

One trainer who can send out a debut winner is Archie Watson. Supercontango is a son of Charm Spirit and £40,000 2yo breeze-up purchase. The betting is a very big indicator for this stable's debutantes and it is a worry he has drifted to the extreme. If priced over 5/1, I would take this a sign this youngster will struggle to win. However, if backed could well come into consideration. The reason, as always, why it is so difficult to give an opinion until close to the off. At the time of writing, there are a number of negatives. 

Anthony Carson doesn't have too many horses in training (talking from two-year-olds and this has just turned three). Needwood Blossom ran well on debut when a 66/1 shot and finished a creditable second over 7f. Dropping back to 5f was a step into the unknown when racing at Southwell eleven days ago. She was awkward from the stalls and always a touch outpaced against a couple of speedsters who had to shoulder win penalties. I'm pretty sure the stable fancied their chance that day and this daughter of Garswood was ridden with purpose and ran on in the closing stages to get third. There has been some money for this April foal. I wouldn't expect this filly to be up with the pace and her strength may be running to the line. 

The other four horses, a debutante and three horses making their second start, are priced as though they need to find improvement. 

Conclusion: A funny-looking race. The four major contestants look to hold a chance but all have questions to answer which isn't the ideal starting place for betting at shortish odds. I had concerns about Rockett Man dropping back to this minimum trip but compard to the others he could well have most on the back foot. A nice-looking colt who will run a race but whether you would want to jump in at 11/8f is another matter. Tributo has plenty of claims on the stats but I do feel he needs to improve on his debut effort, which could well happen. The stable do much better on their second start than debut, which gives some hope. I'd much rather this horse drift to the extreme and be an each-way bet than a straight win. Supercontango could well have claims if strongly fancied in the betting but looks very weak in the market and if over 5/1 I would look to the others to prevail. Needwood Blossom has experience and could run on at the line, which is often a strength for any racehorse. I can't help but think she will be outpaced and need the others to tire to take advantage. All in all, this looks a difficult race to assess. I would be looking to back Tributo each way, but that isn't going to happen. Also, for those betting make sure there isn't a non runner and two places for each-way backers, which could happen. 

A predictable watching brief.