Thursday 13 June 2013

1:50 Musselburgh (14th June) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f on good to firm ground. Twelve runners take part in this restricted race type. Eight juveniles have race experience and a few with respectable form at this grade. A high draw could be an advantage.

Memory Styx has been kept busy by Mick Channon. This grey filly may have run six times to date but she is a talented, determined horse with creditable form. By all accounts this daughter of Clodovil has simply been unlucky to bump into a few talented juveniles and deserving of a victory. The problem is not assessing her level of ability but fearing that one of these races she will regress. Perhaps at relatively short odds - against a few form horses - it would be sensible to take a watching brief. However, if those placed efforts are taken by layers as an indicator that she will always be the bridesmaid, speculative odds could be tempting as she gives her all and has each way claims. 

Alpine Flower may have been huge odds on debut but she impressed. This daughter of Intense Feeling must have done plenty of work on the gallops because she looked professional and knuckled down in the closing stages to fight for second place. The winner was fancied on debut and very well backed that day, while the third has finished behind a few well-touted horses. I can imagine Tim Easterby has plans for this £3,000 yearling purchase [looks an exceptional buy] and from a high draw she must hit the frame. 

Michael Dods is a trainer who often slips under the radar and his debutantes are neglected at your peril. That was certainly the case for *Mecca's Angel who ran a stormer at Thirsk. Backers much have cursed that such a fine display resulted in a loss of not just a short neck, but worse still, out of the first three placings [4th]. In many regards, this daughter of Dark Angel was doing her best work at the line and could well have prevailed in a stride or two. With improvement to come, this looks another contender to add to the mix.

After showing ability on her first start, Kirtling Belle was made favourite when stepping up to 6f at Redcar. That may have been a pretty restricted race type but it was far from a weak race, especially by the general course standard, which can be limited at times. A good few punters were left wondering what happened to finish out of the frame. However, the extra furlong didn't seem to do her any favours and the competition a touch too hot. This drop back to the minimum trip should see this February foal finish her race. It is difficult to get a handle on her form which may leave something to find with a couple of these. If touching speculative odds I could understand her followers taking the plunge once more. 

Classical Diva was well supported on her racecourse bow and done little wrong when second to outsider Sandman's Girl. Declan Carroll is a canny trainer and stable gambles rarely go astray. She looked ready for action but may need to progress a few lengths after just shading Danfazi, who has a hint of ability. 

On a form line with Danfazi, *Abisko has very similar claims to the above mentioned. Brian Ellison must hold her is some regard because this chestnut filly compete at Listed class second start. Although an outsider, an awkward start put pay to any hopes and that race is probably best ignored. 

The other form horses need to improve and best watched.

Four debutantes face a stiff task against a number of fair juveniles and all have relatively low draws which makes life difficult. The betting is the best guide. If priced 13/2 & less it would be a sign of confidence [unlikely].

Conclusion: This isn't a race for the faint hearted because this looks a tough contest for the grade. The winner will be a fair two-year-old for this race type. A number of trainers would have considered this an easy task and will be left scratching their head when previewing these the battle-hardened juveniles. The form horses have the edge and it would take a smart debutante to win. I wouldn't be tempted to bet at relatively short prices because it may not yield value. Memory Styx, Alpine Flower, Mecca's Angel & Kirtling Belle would be at the top of my list. Alpine Flower has the potential to be a fair juvenile although she was pretty fit on debut, so it may be a mistake to expect ample improvement. However, that form may be strong enough and I would be surprised if Easterby's charge isn't placed with a fighting chance of the win. If touching speculative prices I would be tempted to take the brave man's wager and back Memory Styx each way. Her form is solid and deserving of a win. After six races punters will be on the verge of giving up the ghost [which is expected] but a few of those efforts have proven form, better than many will give credit. On the other side of the coin, there is a fear that any moment she will regress with one hard race too many. For that reason it is advisable to only bet at speculative odds. Mecca's Angel and Kirtling Belle have claims, the former having the potential to improve.