A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f on soft ground. This is a restricted race type which can limit the standard of individuals although this shouldn't be taken as fact. Five runners: two colts and three fillies.
Zephyr Breeze is the only two-year-old with form. This son of Piccolo finished a respectable 4th when competing in the Scottish Brocklesby over course and distance. Considering Noel Wilson's bay raced on Friday it is unlikely he will take this engagement.
Four debutantes hail from talented trainers.
Richard Fahey has been quiet this early part of the season but known as a handler who not only trains a large string of juveniles but someone who can train them to win on their racecourse bow. Powerallied is a son of Camacho out of a twice-winning mare. This bay colt isn't two until the end of the month. He was purchased as a yearling for £16,000 at the Doncaster Silver Sale 2014.The stable have one of the better strike rates from all trainers and deserves respect. It is worth noting that this was one of three horses Fahey entered for the Brocklesby Stakes (Doncaster). This could well prove to be a sign of confidence. On breeding this horse may appreciate further so testing ground may be a plus although soft ground is never good news when betting at short odds unless you know it favours. Obviously with no form, it is best to take a watching brief.
Arize hails from David Brown's stable, who introduced a potentially smart two-year-old to win the Scottish Brocklesby in Tribesman owned by John Fretwell. This bay filly is sired by Approve out of an unraced mare. She was purchased at the yearling sales for 12,000GNS by Peter Onslow (breeder). Owner Mrs Sandra Brown hasn't had a horse in training since 1992. David Brown can train debut winners, especially when priced 13/2 & less. However, with such a small field this betting guide is open to question.
Bryan Smart has his first two-year-old runner of the season. Ayresome Angel is an Irish bred chestnut filly sired by Captain Gerard out of an unraced mare. She was purchased by the trainer as a yearling for 10,000GNS. Smart can win with debutantes although most go better on their second start.
The oldest horse in the field is Baby Ballerina, a February foal. This daughter of Kheleyf is out of a poor mare and purchased by Brian Ellison Racing Ltd for 7,000GNS at the yearling sales. Ellison can train debut winners although compared with the likes of Fahey, Brown & Smart less so. I would take a watching brief.
Conclusion: This race type means most horses here are cheap buys. There are no hard and fast rules, but generally these restricted races feature limited two-year-olds. Zephyr Breeze would hold the aces if racing but that look very unlikely after such a short time since racing over course and distance. The debutantes hail from stables who can win with juveniles on their racecourse bow. On statistics Powerallied is most likely and being entered for the Brocklesby Stakes could well be a significant pointer. However, Arize and Ayresome Angel will be in their best betting guides simply because this is a small field which is rather conflicting. Baby Ballerina is most likely to need the race. The combination of debutantes on soft ground I'd have to take a watching brief.
The Scottish Brocklesby over 5f on good to soft going. Just six runners: fives colts and one filly for a respectable first prize of almost £10,000. This race was won last year by Mukhmal, trainer by Mark Johnston, a dual winner and highly tried colt unplaced in the Norfolk Stakes (Group 2), Molecolm Stakes (Group 3) & Flying Childers (Group 2). His best performance came at Sandown's Dragon Stakes (Listed) when second of four.
Johnston has started the juvenile Flat turf season in imperious form with his first three two-year-olds winning (Ravenhoe, Rah Rah & Burantino). Kingsley House Stable have an interesting recruit here with Sixth Sense, ridden by Joe Fanning. This chestnut colt, a son of Shamardal bred by Darley, in the ownership of Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum, is out of an unraced mare. It is interesting to note this April foal was originally entered to run in the Brocklesby Stakes (Doncaster), a contest won by the stable's Ravenhoe. This factor is all the more intriguing regarding David O'Meara's entrant First Bombardment, which finished runner-up behind the said Johnston victor. Sixth Sense is likely to be fancied in the betting, which is as much to do with Jonhston's flying start to the two-year-old season. As many bloggers have noted, you have to question whether this means the stable juveniles are likely to be poor value.
O'Meara's First Bombardment is owned by Northern Hart Racing & Partner. This son of Pastoral Pursuits is out of a twice-winning mare costing £18,000. This bay colt (not two until the end of the month) was quite fancied in the betting when contesting the Broclesby Stakes at Doncaster. He ran a sterling race when finishing second to Ravenhoe, looking the winner in the closing stages (touched big odds-on in-running) only to be denied in the last strides. First Bombardment was quite keen in the early part of the race, travelling well and a straightforward juvenile. Experience often brings a marked advantage over debutantes. In truth this horse sets the standard. However, it is worth noting that the form of the Brocklesby is yet untested. It could well be the case this horse will eclipse the opposition but it doesn't pay to imagine a juvenile's standard of ability until you can appreciate where it sits in the pecking order and at the very least has proven to have enough ability to win an average maiden. The Brocklesby featured less runners this year and only four juveniles showed ability. First Bombardment will be fit,savvy and primed to run a big race and the 7lb apprentice is no doubt on board to make this a winning day. Nevertheless, it pays to be cautious, especially at Stakes class because you can never quite tell the standard of opposition.
What are we to make of the other debutantes?
Brian Ellison fielded a horse in the Brocklesby (General Alexander) which showed promise and must give connection a fair line with their debutante, Mr Morse. This brown/roan colt is sired by Hellvelyn out of a multiple-winning sprint mare. This May foal was purchased as a yearling by Phil Martin for £34,000. The stable usually struggle to win with their debutantes although a betting move would bring more confidence.
David Brown and John Fretwell have made a great partnership when it comes to finding talented two-year-olds. Tribesman is a son of Equiano out of a poor race mare. This chestnut foal cost 12,000gns, later purchased at the yearling sales by Fretwell for £35,000. This stable's juveniles often go well with their debutantes and if priced 13/2 & less hold good win and place claims.
One of the outsiders is Zephyr Breeze trained by Noel Wilson. This son of Piccolo was purchased by the trainer at the yearling sales for 22,000GNS. The stable have few debut winners and although being Stakes entered is a decent sign I would advise a watching brief.
The only filly in the field hails from Bellwood Cottage Stables who made an impact last season with The Wow Signal (pictured) who at Group 1 and fancied to go well in the 2000 Guineas. Smart Mover is an Irish-bred daughter of Fast Company, purchased at the yearling sales for 35,000EUR by Richard Knight Bloodstock/Sean Quinn. Fillies are often smaller horses and fitter than the colts although can be outclass by bigger, stronger colts. The betting is the best guide to this juvenile. If priced 13/2 & less this horse has fair win and place claims.
Conclusion: Early two-year-old races can often be tricky affairs and stakes races can bring even more dilemma because they are often targeted by trainers who fancy they have a decent thoroughbred. Form at this time of year is a big positive and First Bombardment, being a narrow loser, ticks a lot of boxes. David O'Meara will be disappointed if this colt doesn't win. He may well win but it is difficult to make assessment of his first effort. Certainly the final furlong of the Brocklesby was pretty slow. On the positive side, this horse looks straightforward and sets the standard. It's always interesting to read the latest stable news via trainer websites & blogs. It is intriguing to see Mark Johnston field Sixth Sense who was considered for the Brocklesby but stablemate Ravenhoe won, representing Kingsley House. Johnston had three two-year-old runners that day - all winning and looking fair sorts. He made the headlines with his impressive trio and the stable have a bumper string of talent. Connections must have a line with First Bombardment and it could be telling if Sixth Sense starts favourite. The downside is that the bookmakers are likely to give little value. Tribesman and Smart Mover hail from stables that have a fair win and place strike rate when priced 13/2 & less. Mr Morse & Zephyr Breeze are best watched. A difficult race to assess with the favorites likely to be little value while all horses still have something to prove. A watching brief.
