2:30 Newcastle - Alnashama (strong place claims)
Tuesday, 30 September 2014
1:45 Salisbury Racing Tips (1st October) FRANCIS CLARK BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF MAIDEN STAKES (Bobis Race) (Div I) (CLASS 4) (2yo)
2:30 Newcastle - Alnashama (strong place claims)
Thursday, 25 September 2014
Early Indicators for the 2015 Grand National
Ok, yes, it is very early days. The
National Hunt season has not even got into full swing yet, but this
is the time of year to find the best value on the most valuable
steeplechase in the world. Here we will look at some of the main
contenders for the big race at Aintree next April to try and point
readers in the right direction for an ante-post wager.
Early favourite
According to Betfair,
the early favourite for the 4 miles 3 ½ furlongs contest, run over
30 fences is Shutthefrontdoor, trained by Jonjo O’Neill. The
seven-year old (who will be eight on the day of the race) shot to the
head of the ante-post market with a decisive win in the Irish Grand
National back in April. Owned by JP McManus – who has already
tasted victory in the race with Don’t Push It back in 2010, the son
of Accordion could be a lively contender.
An indication to the merits of
Shutthefrontdoor may well lie with Holywell – who beat its stable
mate by 3 ¼ lengths at the Cheltenham festival last March, in
receipt of 4lbs. Holywell has since climbed to the head of the
Cheltenham Gold Cup betting after winning at the Aintree meeting, and
the horse’s further improvement this season would only boost the
form and hopes of Shutthefrontdoor.
Major concerns
Last years’ winner, Pineau De Re will
look to buck the trend that goes back to the legendary Red
Rum who was the last to record back-to-back Grand National wins
in 1973-74. A five-length success over Balthazar King, the Dr Richard
Newland trained 11-year old proved too good for the rest of the field
and returned a 25/1 winner. The major concerns for Pineau
De Re are the facts that no horse has retained the National for
31 years, and he will be 12 years old come April – Amberleigh House
is the only 12 year-old to win since 1996 – which must be another
negative.
He will also be in the firm grip of the
handicapper also after such a convincing performance that is likely
to make it a much tougher task. Records are there to be broken
however, but the statistics are surely against Pineau De Re this time
around.
A couple of horses who ran with promise
in the 2014 race that will hope for improvement are Double Seven,
trained in Ireland by Martin Brassil and Paul Nicholls’ Rocky
Creek. Double Seven ran a very creditable third place finish back in
April under the champion jockey AP McCoy, finishing 6 ¼ lengths
behind the winner. Providing that Shutthefrontdoor turns up at
Aintree, McCoy will have a serious headache in deciding of which JP
McManus horse to choose from, but Double Seven has the course form in
the book, which is an obvious plus.
Rocky Creek was touted as a potential
Gold Cup horse in the not too distant past, but those lofty
aspirations have since faded with some mediocre performances at that
level. A fifth-place finish back in April was a very decent effort on
the 8-year olds’ first time over the National fences and a crack at
the 2015 renewal could well be the gelding’s main target this term.
Lively outsider
One to keep an eye on at a fancy price
is the Jim Dreaper trained Goonyella. The seven year-old son of
Presenting narrowly missed the cut for the 2014 race, but will surely
be aimed again in 2015. Some reasonable performances in last years’
Welsh
National and the 2014 Irish National without causing too much
noise could well be a benefit this time around especially if the
ground turns out softer than good.
Summary
It is obviously a very difficult task
to pick the winner of the 2015 Grand National with over seven months
to the race, but hopefully some of these horses could well be picking
up a piece of the prize money come April. There is value to be had at
this time of the year in placing a small stakes wager on the event,
good luck in finding it!
Tuesday, 23 September 2014
2:20 Lingfield (23rd September) Arlecchino's Leap To Finish With Zeal
Monday, 22 September 2014
Another Treve flop blows Arc betting wide open
Treve was truly brilliant when running
away with last year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe race at
Longchamp, but things just haven’t gone her way this season and she
once again let supporters down when finishing fourth in the Group
1 Prix Vermeille at the Paris track in her big-race warm-up on
September 14. The filly’s below-par effort has blown
the ante-post market for this season’s renewal of Europe’s
premier middle-distance contest wide open.
Treve is now priced at around
8/1 on BetFair to retain her crown on October 5 at Longchamp,
despite having failed to get her head in front during the current
campaign. The horse was widely expected to win the Prix Vermeille
under her new jockey - Thierry Jarnet - who had been sensationally
brought in to replace Frankie Dettori after trainer Criquette
Head-Maarek had decided the Italian-born superstar rider was not the
right man for the job.
Head-Maarek’s controversial decision
came on the back of much deliberation following Treve’s bitterly
disappointing run in the Group 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal
Ascot in June when she was sent off a hot odds-on favourite but
could only finish third behind the John Gosden-trained The Fugue.
On faster ground than is ideal for her, Treve moved poorly to the
post and Dettori reported afterwards that the filly never felt right
- before, during, or after the race. She never travelled during the
contest with her usual fluency and made laboured progress under
strong pressure around the home turn before struggling on to fill
third place, far below expectations.
Some seasoned observers wondered if
Dettori had simply been the fall guy for the trainer having made an
error in running her star horse on the wrong ground, so the Italian
would be entitled to feel a shade vindicated with Jarnet proving no
more effective on Treve’s comeback run. Put plainly, the daughter
of Derby
winner Motivator showed little of her old dash when
finished behind shock winner Baltic
Baroness in the Prix Vermeille – winner of a modest
listed contest on her previous outing - form that leaves her with a
mountain to climb to improve enough in the space of three weeks to
retain her crown in Paris on the first Sunday of October.
Bookmaker reaction to Treve’s eclipse
was predictably swift with the filly being pushed out to as far as
10/1 in places, as the Oaks and King George VI & Queen Elizabeth
Stakes heroine Taghrooda advanced to become the new ante-post
favourite at odds of 5/1. A genuinely high-class filly who might well
have been in season when narrowly beaten in the Yorkshire Oaks by
Tapestry last time out, Taghrooda - trained by John Gosden - was
terrific when winning at Ascot and would be a danger to all if back
to that sort of form.
In what proved a dramatic weekend in
the betting market for the big race, another of the leading
contenders, German champion Sea The Moon, was taken out of the
betting lists on the news that he is unlikely to race again after
suffering a training setback in the wake of his shock defeat at Baden
Baden, which ultimately
proved more serious than first thought and forced him into
retirement.
The Markus Flug-trained son of racing
legend Sea The Stars (also the sire of Taghrooda), had looked a
world-beater when wiping the floor with smart opposition in the
German Derby at Hamburg in the summer, storming to a barely
believable 11-length success that marked him down as a potentially
exceptional middle-distance performer.
On the same day that Treve put the cat
amongst the pigeons with her defeat at Longchamp, another horse came
very much back into the reckoning for the outstanding race. Ruler of
the World, winner of the 2013 Investec Derby at Epsom had his first
run since finishing well down the field in the Dubai
World Cup. The horse – who ended last term finishing
a very close third to the high-class Farhh in the Champion Stakes at
Ascot in October - showed he retains his ability in running out an
impressive length-and-a-half winner of the Group 2 Prix Foy, under a
well judged front-running ride from none other than Frankie Dettori.
Ruler of the World won the Derby in the
colours of John Magnier and his Ballydoyle partners, but ran in the
Prix Foy in the silks of Al Shaqaab Racing - the Qatari-based owners
who have invested a massive amount of money in European racing and
who bought a significant share of the son of Galileo prior to his
Dubai World Cup flop. There was plenty to like about the way the
four-year-old went about his business on his first start of the term,
leading all the way - a tactic that would ensure he stays out of
trouble in the big race itself. He found plenty for pressure when the
favourite Flintshire stayed on well inside the final furlong and was
always doing enough to land the spoils. Ruler of the World was cut
from 33/1 to 16/1 by most firms to follow up over course and distance
in the ‘Arc’ itself.
While Ruler of the World stated his
case for the Arc, another Aidan O’Brien-trained star Australia, was
doubtless back in his stable unaware that his narrow
defeat the previous day at the hands of The Grey Gatsby
- in a tremendous duel for the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes at the
Curragh - had also left punters scratching their heads and wondering
whether he would make it to the starting stalls at Longchamp.
Joseph O’Brien – who was riding
Australia - had appeared to have everything under control as he
cruised into the lead a furlong-and-a-half from home and went clear
of his rivals, only for the brilliant Ryan Moore to produce a
stunning finish on Kevin Ryan’s The Grey Gatsby, who subsequently
wore down the dual Derby and Juddmonte
International Stakes winner in the shadow of the post
to win by a head – evening the score with the horse who beat him
two lengths at York.
Australia had looked one of the best
bets of the season and was sent off as the 3/10 market leader, but he
ended up having a hard race in defeat and understandably was pushed
out in the ante-post market for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe to as
big as 25/1, having been around a 9/1 chance prior to his defeat. The
horse has since been removed from availability for selection in
places, amid rumours that the O’Brien horse has been pulled from
the race.
One Arc candidate that has yet to taste
any sort of defeat is the exciting French three-year-old Avenir
Certain, who has risen up the ante-post market while many around her
have faltered in the build-up to the big race. The horse is
subsequently now a 6/1 second-favourite. The winner of all six of her
career starts, the Jean-Claude Rouget-trained daughter of Le Havre
won
the Group 1 Prix de Diane LonginesLongines (French Oaks) at Chantilly
in June, then followed up with another impressive win
at Deauville in August. Avenir Certain handles soft ground well and
with Longchamp in October invariably riding on the soft side of good,
she appears to have leading claims and is a serious contender.
Connections of the Group 1 Ladbrokes St
Leger Stakes winner Kingston Hill have yet to commit themselves to a
run in Paris, but the scenario they have been craving all season for
their fine colt is a race run on easy ground, so the temptation to go
for the big one must be there if last season’s Racing Post Trophy
winner recovers sufficiently quickly. On the back of his sweeping
late success on Town Moor, the Epsom Derby runner-up - trained by
Roger Varian - was shortened from 18/1 to 10/1 on Betfair and would
be a very interesting runner.
Possibly the most exciting candidate of
all might be Dermot Weld’s Free Eagle - a leading two-year-old of
last season who was absent until reappearing on the Irish
Champion Stakes card at Leopardstown in mid-September,
after an absence of 53 weeks. Free Eagle cruised to victory over
Elleval by a nonchalant seven lengths in the Group 3 KPMG Enterprise
Stakes over 10 furlongs. While the opposition was nowhere near Arc
class, the manner of the High Chaparral colt’s victory was
extremely taking and despite only ever having had three runs in his
life – with his only defeat coming against Australia when odds-on
last year – he looks to have the talent, if not the experience to
warrant a place in the big race.
The likelihood that connections will
favour a bid for the Champion Stakes at Ascot instead has meant that
punters are keen to lay Free Eagle for the Arc and he can still be
matched at up to 38/1 on the exchange, which are no doubt tempting
odds for a horse who could yet prove a world-beater, judged on his
Leopardstown victory at least.
Tuesday, 16 September 2014
2:30 Yarmouth (16th September) Imtiyaaz Has Class To Shine On Debut
Roger Varian has been in flying form with Kingston Hill's St Leger victory, then Cursory Glance taking the Moyglare Stakes (Group 1) in Ireland. Kremlin House Stables can do little wrong. Imtiyaaz is a daughter of Starspangledbanner, out of a twice-race mare who showed little when in training with Godolphin. This February foal, bred by Lynn Lodge Stud, cost 62,000gns, when purchase as a yearling by Hugo Merry Bloodstock at Tattersalls October Sale 2013 (Book 2). Varian has a fair strike rate with his debutantes and it is intriguing to note that this filly holds a couple of lofty engagements for the Shadwell Rockfel Stakes (Group 2) and Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1). She is one of only twenty entries for this Newmarket race, and the trainer's other representative is the might Cursory Glance. These pointers suggest this filly has her share of ability and although much to prove with regarding those Group-class ambitions, connections must be keen to see what this grand daughter of Green Desert can achieve. A fair each way selection if prices allow.
Sunday, 14 September 2014
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National winners setting sights on Aintree 2015
A glance at the ante-post market for
the 2015 Crabbies Grand National at Aintree, a race worth total prize
money of £1 million, shows that last year’s hero Pineau de Re and
Shutthefrontdoor, impressive winner of the Irish Grand National at
Fairyhouse, are amongst a number of horses vying for favouritism at
around 26.0 with most
firms in the Grand National betting, writes Elliot Slater.
There’s a long way to go before the
40 runners will face the starter for “the world’s greatest
steeplechase” at Aintree
racecourse in the spring, but already connections of the two
respective Grand National heroes of last year are laying out their
plans for the campaign ahead.
Pineau de Re, trained by Dr Richard
Newland, proved a revelation last term and far exceeded even the
wildest expectations of his new owner, Mr Provan, who purchased the
veteran privately from his previous patrons who had raced the horse
over a number of seasons in Ireland under the guidance of trainer
Philip Fenton. The French-bred gelding had placed in graded hurdles
in his youth but had seemingly plateaued some time ago over fences,
yet the change of scene and the new surroundings of Newland’s
Warwickshire stables brought about a remarkable transformation in the
11-year-old.
After winning a
veterans handicap chase at Exeter in January he switched to hurdles
and very nearly pulled off an amazing win in the Pertemps
Handicap Hurdle Final at the Cheltenham Festival before taking his
chance over the still awesome Aintree fences, being sent off at Grand
National betting odds of 25/1. The rest is history, as Leighton
Aspell’s mount galloped to a superb five-length victory over
Balthazar King, catapulting his handler into the international
sporting spotlight.
Dr Newland is hopeful that despite the
certainty of having to carry more weight in the big race this year
Pineau de Re (26.0) has a sporting chance of getting involved at the
business end of the contest and is likely to campaign him over
hurdles for most of the season, keeping the old horse fresh for
another assault on the £1 million Crabbies-sponsored
showcase event
On the other side of the Irish Sea
another smart staying handicap chaser made a big name for himself
last term and could be one to definitely keep on the right side in
the season ahead with his ambitious owner JP McManus, trainer Jonjo
O’Neill, and jockey Tony McCoy eyeing a crack at the Aintree
marathon on the spring.
Shutthefrontdoor achieved a tremendous
amount in his first season over fences having previously shown
ability over hurdles. There’s no doubt that the gelded son of
Accordion exceeded expectations with the rapid progress he made over
fences, culminating in a famous victory in the Irish Grand National
when getting the better of a tremendous tussle with Golden Wonder to
score by three-quarters-of-a-length under a great ride from Barry
Geraghty.
Tony McCoy had ridden Shutthefrontdoor
on most of his outings over fences - with the exception of his
previous outing at Cheltenham in the Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt
Chase (for amateur riders) - but he was unable to travel to Ireland
for the big race and Geraghty proved a more than able substitute at
Fairyhouse.
At just seven years old the Irish
National winner is likely still improving and hopes are
understandably high that a horse with his stamina and attitude could
well have something to offer at Aintree in the spring when he could
well be amongst the market principals, especially if McCoy, very much
a housewives favourite these days, is back on board.
Friday, 12 September 2014
Saturday Tipping Competition
Tuesday, 9 September 2014
4:50 Leicester Racing Tips (9th September) BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF FILBERT MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Bobis Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)
Monday, 8 September 2014
Smart Live Gaming Partnered with Ellis Cashmore to Feature UK Citizens’ Betting Behaviour
Smart Live Gaming, the fastest growing licenced online casino in the United Kingdom, featured a visually orientated recreation of the Gambling Commission’s most recent betting statistics. This version comprehensively addresses the betting behaviour of UK citizens divided accordingly by gender and array of age groups. In order to achieve a more informative presentation, Smart Live Gaming spoke with Ellis Cashmore, a professor of culture, media and sport at Staffordshire University, for more detailed and exclusive insights into gambling trends within the United Kingdom.
Smart Live Gaming cited noteworthy information and in-depth analysis of the UK Betting Behaviour of British adult gamblers. In addition, it revealed the contrasting interests that have significantly influenced multiple individuals within a particular age group and gender. The visual presentation made use of three significant areas that chiefly affect the betting behaviour of UK citizens to broadly specify the variation among the age groups: betting activities, machines/games used for gambling and lotteries/related products.
“The UK has a strong gambling culture, starting in the Napoleonic Wars era (1800-15) probably hitting its stride in the inter-war period (1918 onwards) when illegal betting syndicates grew,” Prof. Ellis Cashmore said. According to the Gambling Behaviour in England and Scotland, an in-depth study of gambling and problem gambling levels conducted by the Gambling Commission, 65% of English and Scottish adults have done gambling in the past year. In addition, men are being more likely to be involved in gambling than women.
Figure 1
The gambling behaviour of UK citizens has constantly varied by age. In the flashcard above (figure 1), the gambling participation rate is highest among the middle-aged gamblers in the UK, and lowest among the age group of the youngest and oldest gamblers. Moreover, while horse racing is the most prevalent betting activity for women of all ages, the purchase of National Lottery tickets ranked the most popular among all age groups and both genders.
According to government statistics it could be argued that betting forms an intrical part of UK Culture since there’s such a large interest in the National Lotto, Horse Racing, Football and Slot Machines. However, Prof. Ellis Cashmore stated that gambling has become ‘medicalised’ over the years as it began exaggerating its negative effects in the society. “It is a social activity that should be understood socially,” he added.
Smart Live Gaming cited noteworthy information and in-depth analysis of the UK Betting Behaviour of British adult gamblers. In addition, it revealed the contrasting interests that have significantly influenced multiple individuals within a particular age group and gender. The visual presentation made use of three significant areas that chiefly affect the betting behaviour of UK citizens to broadly specify the variation among the age groups: betting activities, machines/games used for gambling and lotteries/related products.
“The UK has a strong gambling culture, starting in the Napoleonic Wars era (1800-15) probably hitting its stride in the inter-war period (1918 onwards) when illegal betting syndicates grew,” Prof. Ellis Cashmore said. According to the Gambling Behaviour in England and Scotland, an in-depth study of gambling and problem gambling levels conducted by the Gambling Commission, 65% of English and Scottish adults have done gambling in the past year. In addition, men are being more likely to be involved in gambling than women.
Figure 1
The gambling behaviour of UK citizens has constantly varied by age. In the flashcard above (figure 1), the gambling participation rate is highest among the middle-aged gamblers in the UK, and lowest among the age group of the youngest and oldest gamblers. Moreover, while horse racing is the most prevalent betting activity for women of all ages, the purchase of National Lottery tickets ranked the most popular among all age groups and both genders.
According to government statistics it could be argued that betting forms an intrical part of UK Culture since there’s such a large interest in the National Lotto, Horse Racing, Football and Slot Machines. However, Prof. Ellis Cashmore stated that gambling has become ‘medicalised’ over the years as it began exaggerating its negative effects in the society. “It is a social activity that should be understood socially,” he added.
Thursday, 4 September 2014
A Bobby Dazzler - Lord Ben Stack
Monday, 1 September 2014
2:40 Leicester (1st September) Candy Primed For Double
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